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Bitcoin

Why Did Bitcoin Drop 25% in Just Two Weeks? (thestreet.com) 264

Bitcoin "fell dramatically in late April," writes The Street, "sinking from its mid-month high of around $64,000" to Sunday's current price of $47,600 — a drop of over 25% in less than two weeks.

So this week the Street spoke to Bobby Ong, the chief operating officer at the cryptocurrency data aggregator CoinGecko, asking "Was that just par for the course — normal volatility — of something else?" Ong: The recent bloodbath on April 18 saw a record of approximately $9.77 billion worth of futures contracts liquidated in just 24 hours. There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase initial public offering. The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin's price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.

However, the direct listing of Coinbase also had a lukewarm reception from stock investors. More recently, there was a lot of fear and uncertainty spreading on social media due to various factors, including (rumors of) the U.S. Treasury taking legal action against certain financial institutions for money laundering, which turned out to be false information. Other than that, CNBC was recirculating news about the crypto ban in India, Turkey banning crypto payments, President Biden proposing a higher capital gains tax, and China bitcoin miners losing power.

The selloff happened during the weekend when there were thinner order books. With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.

Naturally, the market also needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders. It is also important to note that bitcoin options expire towards the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility in the last week of each month.

TheStreet: Do you see the decline as a chance for people to get into it at a cheaper price?

Ong: It depends on that person and their goals. The profiles of buyers today are very different before, when it was mostly libertarians. Today. it's U.S. institutions, and soon it will be governments.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Why Did Bitcoin Drop 25% in Just Two Weeks?

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  • Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @05:55PM (#61313082)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Because it has no intrinsic value...
      That's completely up to the market!

      In that case it value is $1 trillion.

      SSL/TLS certificates, domain names, software... itâ(TM)s all just zeros and ones with no physical value you can touch of hold - yet th usefulness and value of these zeros and ones are undeniable. A commonly overheard statement in the mid 90s was why would anyone pay $50 for a domain name, or $500 for a digital certificate, they are just ephemeral bits with no value - stated by the same people who gladly forked over $100 for a copy of Windows 95.

      Crypto currency is a

    • Re:Ummm.... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:29PM (#61313190) Journal

      That is true of nearly everything.

      • Re:Ummm.... (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Jeremi ( 14640 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @08:26PM (#61313530) Homepage

        That is true of nearly everything.

        Well, yes and no.

        It's true that in a hypothetical universe without humans and human need, nothing would have any intrinsic value, as there would be nobody there to desire it enough to pay money for it.

        However, we live in a world with actual people, and in that context we have to recognize that biology dictates that those people have and will continue to have standard needs and desires, and will be willing (to varying extents) to pay money to have those needs and desires fulfilled.

        The concept of intrinsic value, then, is related to how likely it is that people will generally want or need a particular item and be willing to pay for it.

        Food, water, shelter, medicine? People will die without these things, so the likelihood is that no matter what time or place you visit, people will be willing to pay for them -- they have intrinsic value.

        A particular movie or piece of music? It might be quite valuable in the culture where it was produced and has relevance, but its value will likely fade over time as fashions and tastes shift. It has intrinsic value, but less of it than a universally-required staple would.

        A mathematical abstraction like BitCoin? It has value as long as BitCoin is seen by the public as a way to make or store value; but that is only a culture's state-of-mind, and is only valid until people decide otherwise. If the world decides tomorrow that BitCoins are no longer worth anything, they won't be; you won't be able to sell them and you won't be able to eat them or use them for kindling or anything other purpose. Twenty years ago, owning BitCoins would have been unsalable, and twenty years from now, they might be unsalable again. BitCoin has value (for now), but it's not intrinsic.

        • From a practical perspective, we all need to breathe. From an economics perspective, air has zero intrinsic value because no one will pay for it.

          That may change if something catastrophic happens, but such an event is unlikely.

          • by dryeo ( 100693 )

            I'd suggest reading up on current conditions in India and how much demand there is for air, or rather oxygen, the best part of air.
            Earlier in the year, air, or the oxygen in it, was going for something like a thousand dollars for a few litres (forget the actual number) in parts of Brazil.
            For most there is a huge surplus of air, so low price, but within minutes of no air, people will pay everything they have for some.

            • Earlier in the year, air, or the oxygen in it, was going for something like a thousand dollars for a few litres (forget the actual number) in parts of Brazil.

              Yeah, and you can buy CO2 in canisters, but you, my friend, have just set up a strawman instead of attacking my main point.

          • From a practical perspective, we all need to breathe. From an economics perspective, air has zero intrinsic value because no one will pay for it.

            This is nonsense.
            If you found yourself locked in a room with a little quarter slot directly below a notice that said "Please deposit 25 cents to continue breathing", you my friend, would pay.

            The fact is, air is so abundant that there's no real way to corner that market, but it has quite a bit of intrinsic value.

    • If it's money it has one job. hold a constant value.

    • Because it has no intrinsic value and it's price is completely speculative?

      The same is true of any fiat currency currently, when money supplies have been boosted arbitrarily with around a 25% boost of the entire money supply in the past year or so [stlouisfed.org] - that's for the U.S. but all major currencies are doing the same thing. How doe s debt that is over 100% [spglobal.com] of GDP grab ya?

      In fact fiat is far more unstable (as you shall soon see) because there is no limit; with Bitcoin there is a limited supply.

      That's completely

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Is this a trick question? Because it has no intrinsic value and it's price is completely speculative?

      That statement does nothing to explain why its speculative value was 33% more two weeks ago than it is now. Just like practically all the replies below.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Is this a trick question? Because it has no intrinsic value and it's price is completely speculative?

      Is it worth $0.0000001?

      Is it worth $100000000?

      That's completely up to the market!

      Actually, it is worth exactly nothing. The question is how much money people are willing to waste on it.

    • Is this [Why Did Bitcoin Drop 25% in Just Two Weeks?] a trick question? [how much it's worth is] completely up to the market!

      Yes, it's a trick question. Because how much ANY asset is worth is completely up to the market.

      The value of any asset is ONLY what someone RIGHT THEN is willing to pay for it and someone else is willing to sell it for. Those decisions MAY have some relation to some more general desirability or utility of the asset (an "underlying value"). But the only thing that matters is the two

    • Because it has no intrinsic value and it's price is completely speculative?

      Unlike this U.S. penny that still buys a loaf of bread like it did in 1821.

    • Nothing has intrinsic value.
      Everything can have intrinsic value.
      It is always a matter of context and situation.

      The value of Bitcoin lies in what you can do with it, and how its supply is limited. In that, it is not really much different from gold.

  • Generally speaking (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:07PM (#61313112)

    Bitcoin drops because the whales are cycling the fleecing machine.

  • by Misagon ( 1135 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:17PM (#61313150)

    I'm just speculating, but perhaps more holders than usual just realised that something is fishy about the whole premise of "investing" in Bitcoin, and wanted out - converting their Bitcoin to actual currency. And maybe others decided that it is about time to get out soon before it crashes.

    How did you think that cryptocurrency exchanges would be able to afford real money? What usually happens when supply is higher than demand?
    Nothing can be hyped forever - to expect that would be madness.

  • by Nkwe ( 604125 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:27PM (#61313174)
    Given that Bitcoin doesn't make a great currency (volatility, time needed for transactions, etc.) and given that it's all speculation (gambling) and not really investing, I still find it surprising that people take such a short term view on the price. Sure, it's down 25% in a couple of weeks. It is also up 275% in the last 6 months. It is up 580% in the last year. It is up 11,560% over the last 5 years.
    • by hjf ( 703092 )

      It's the "SEE? I TOLD YOU SO!" club.
      The same people who forecast stuff that never happens and keep saying "YOU JUST WAIT".
      The same people that insist any investment is gambling and don't understand inflation.

    • But the only people who care about the price are Bitcoin people. They have so much confidence in their system they're still comparing to old money.

      Everyone else is just looking at the volatility and commenting on that volatility. The price means nothing if you didn't get in early, and you aren't looking to bail out.
  • by ac22 ( 7754550 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:28PM (#61313180)

    Let's put that into context.

    Coinbase
    1,249 employees
    revenue $1.14B
    Market cap $61B

    BP
    70,000 employees
    revenue $183.5B
    Market cap $59B

    Apparently the multinational oil company with $183.5B of annual revenue is worth less than a website where you can buy Bitcoin.

    • by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @07:05PM (#61313308)

      but oil will be worth something for decades, if only because 15 percent of it is used for lubricants, plastics, etc.

      meanwhile gambling game tokens worth nothing can go to zero value.

      cryptocurrency (not really currency nor money, fails the tests of those) is merely Tulip Mania, 21st century version.

    • Well if you assume the value of bitcoin is going to go infinitely up, there's no amount too large for anything bitcoin-related

  • by DeplorableCodeMonkey ( 4828467 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:28PM (#61313184)

    Start here [twitter.com] and read a bunch of the tweets above it from that guy. He says there was particular activity back to back in BTC, CXC and USDT that looks like someone trying to hide assets at scale. So the rumors about the US Treasury starting to crackdown hard on tax evaders and money launderers who use crypto may be true.

    This is why smart money is moving into physical assets. Notice that no one in the media is really asking why Bill Gates bought around a quarter million acres of prime farm land instead of more stonks. It's not a hobby, I can tel you that much. Going to bet that Gates, Musk, Ellison, Dimon and most of their peers have been buying precious metals, real estate with productive value and other physical goods while doing the "yay cryptonks, yay stonks...." cheerleading.

    • by thona ( 556334 )
      Yes, it may. It definitely is totally unrelated with this turkish crypto exchange, Thodex, that shut down and the CEO hiding 2 billion in assets. You know, that crypto exchange where 62 where arrested and the founder is assumed to be in Albania. I totally has to be the crackdown by the US Treasury (which would not even do that, you know) and totally is unrelated to billions in crypto assets being moved around to hide them. What about less conspiracy theory and a tad - just a little bit - of competence re
  • You buy in at a certain price, maybe even before it had any actual value.

    When you reach a certain value, determined by you, you sell it.

    The price you select is meaningless, it's what you're comfortable with.

    Sane people do this, and aren't crying because "Bitcoin $200000" is probably not going to happen anytime soon.

    Now if you're really smart, you'll figure out if there is going to be a floor, and put a percentage of your profits back in. (Not as true regarding pump and dump schemes like Game Stop)

    You'll alm

  • by Mr307 ( 49185 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:33PM (#61313214)

    The best description of cryptocurrency is a greater fool bubble.
    The most charitable view of cryptocurrency unregulated gambling.

    Just shy of 10% of all exchanges have been hacked at least once.
    80% of all icos are scams right out of the gate.
    ~76% of the hashing is controlled by a totalitarian state with no compunction against ruthless controls over their economy see Jack Ma IPO.
    Doublespending has already happened a few times after innumerable claims of it being 'impossible'.
    It is not based on anything real, there is no actual scarcity, there is in fact an infinite number of completely unregulated 'coins'.
    Cost per transaction makes it useless in practice.
    Time per transaction makes it useless in practice.
    Having zero regulation or oversight, all of the above again relies on the goodwill of anyone in any position at any stage of the project having no uncontrolled/unrestricted self interest, malicious intent or just naked greed (checkout what happened in Turkey recently).

  • by bill_mcgonigle ( 4333 ) * on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:55PM (#61313266) Homepage Journal

    Most of TA is BS but the support price trend line is usually approximately correct. Everybody knew BTC was in a hype bubble. The bets were how big the bubble would inflate.

  • by Mr307 ( 49185 ) on Sunday April 25, 2021 @06:58PM (#61313286)

    What happens when a critical mass of the hash rate moves over to something like Etherium because they can make more money doing that work?

    All of the easy bitcoins have been mined already the last ~12% of bitcoin are predicted to take another ~100 years to mine, what/when is the threshold where most of the miners migrate to some other 'coin' that will pay off much sooner?

    • by hjf ( 703092 )

      Ethereum is moving to a proof-of-stake scheme which will make mining pretty much useless.
      We'll see the market flood with graphics card soon.
      And no, these cards aren't really 'busted'. Most large-scale operations take care of these cards, undervolt and underclock them, because the ROI is pretty long on them.
      If you were to buy a graphics card to mine ETH today, you'll mine enough with it to pay for it in one year.

    • hat happens when a critical mass of the hash rate moves over to something like Etherium because they can make more money doing that work?

      Once enough people move to a different coin, then suddenly the reward for being a bitcoin miner will increase.

  • You simply do not want to accept that it is a delusion.

    And that is why you're still confused and looking for an explanation (that will allow you to keep it, so you don't have to feel like a moron).

    But really, anyone can fall for something, no? We are not perfect! Nobody fair expects you to be perfect!
    All we do, is expect you to accept reality, not make things up, not ignore things, and hence not fall into a religion.

    Like falling not being deadly, while hitting the ground is,
    there is no shame in making a mis

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      You simply do not want to accept that it is a delusion.

      Pretty much, yes. For anybody but a few large players this is a negative sum game. Its only purpose is to redistribute money from those that have not a lot to those that already have plenty. And it works. It does massive damage on the way (people getting bankrupted, electricity wastes, hardware used for no positive outcome, etc.), but the few large players do not care, because they are scum.

  • They will now buy back at a cool 25% profit, good game if you are in on it.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Only a good game of all of the following is true:
      a) You have lots of money you do not need (small time player only win by accident in this game)
      b) You are mentally defective and want even more money
      c) You are an immoral waste of oxygen and do not mind bankrupting people gambling it with money they cannot afford to lose

  • Crypto currency, all flavors, are just made up nonsense. It doesn’t exist. Here come the “but, but, but money is just made up”, not true.. The Constitution grants Congress the power “To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measure”, (Article 1 Section 8, Clause 5 of the US Constitution”). The Dollar is backed by guarantee of the United States of America. What backs crypto-currency? nada... Speculators
    • by hjf ( 703092 )

      Me? Yes thanks. I bought $100 worth of it 2 years ago and now I have $600 worth of it.

      Because I'm not a fucking delusional imbecile that believes that "if the power grid goes down I'll use cash". If the power grid goes down the whole society falls apart, you numbnuts. Your dollars will be worth nothing.

      How can you be so stupid?

      Wait, are you a prepper? Do you have a bunker? Do you think if SHTF you'll stay in there for a few months and then come out and go to McDonald's for a burger?

  • $48,000. Same as it was on March 6th.

  • BTC has mostly failed as a transactional currency. What it has managed to do is create something more like digital gold. Gold is somewhat industrial, but mostly financial. Holders of gold weigh their purchase against their belief that other forms of money are likely to devalue. Gold and BTC don't return interest on their own, and thus may have similar dynamics in the market when weighed against bond yields and expectations regarding the purchasing power of currency. The BTC chart certainly has a gold k

    • I think the "hoarding like gold" idea is an achilles heel of Bitcoin. There is real value provided by Bitcoin, and that is related to the transaction volume serviced by the network. If the network activity goes stagnant, does the value of Bitcoin go down? Probably, yes. This is not a kind of "gold-like" substitute that can survive stagnancy. If people simply hold Bitcoin rather than move it around, Gresham's Law will take hold and the Bitcoin price will face relentless downward pressure. In the long r

      • I think the solution to the Bitcoin hoarding problem is in the altcoins. A lot of them are focusing on the transaction cost problems. That focus brings other problems, but somebody may eventually come upon a solution that clearly wins, or perhaps we will have a hand full of big cryptos that take different approaches and have different uses.

        I don't see BTC going to zero based on its own dynamics. The thing about Gresham's law is that it drives good money *out of circulation*, not out of existence. The on

  • In fact, it is _less_ than hot air and has less worth than even the worst junk-bonds available, because it is worth exactly nothing. So its value is purely in the imagination of the fools and greater fools that try to get rich with it and hence is exceptionally volatile.

    Next dumb question?

    • Next dumb question?

      When can I go into the supermarket and buy what I need with my good looks? Allen Ginsberg

  • Yes. Inflation.

    The big selling point of Bitcoin, or any other single cryptocurrency whose valuation is not tied to a fiat, is tha the money supply is algorithmically limited. But I keep encountering crypto "investors" who tell me that "Because I missed the boat on Bitcoin, and now it's around $60,000 per unit, I'm buying Etherium | Dogecoin | Nakamoto-knows-what instead. I'm getting in on the ground floor!" Even though any single crypto has a fixed supply, the crypto market as a whole is now Zimbabwe level

  • and there's a good chance they'll legalize weed and pull back on drug enforcement in general. Legal weed would let the dispensaries access the actual banking system (as it stands I'm pretty sure many are using Crypto as defacto banking) and even just pulling back on the drug war would make crypto less attractive/necessary.

    Also there's talk of regulating crypto (which would mean a lot less money laundering and therefore a lot less value for it).

    Finally there's talk of raising capital gains taxes, whi
  • What has trading bitcoin got to do with options trading?

  • THe real action is the Zimbabwe dollar. For a few aussie dollars im a multi zillionaire with so many zeros i feel really good.
  • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Monday April 26, 2021 @05:42AM (#61314534)

    Hutubi county, Xinjiang, China. Heavy rainfall, floods. Local coal mine floods 11.4.2021. 21 miners trapped. Coal supply in the region disrupted to local power plant supplying this and two neighbouring counties with electrical power.

    And total hash rate of bitcoin network goes down by about a third.

    This reminds a lot of investors that not only is bitcoin volatile, but control over transactions is also highly centralized in specific miners' hands (including regionally). Price goes down as some of them divest.

  • by Canberra1 ( 3475749 ) on Monday April 26, 2021 @08:23AM (#61315058)
    The bad guys have a new way to shift money around. And the rest think, Hey, its tax free. The US would do well to increase capital gains taxes on speculative investments that do absolutely nothing with respect of creating jobs or industry. Worse, if filthy rich mega companies make any loss, it is all tax deductible.

As you will see, I told them, in no uncertain terms, to see Figure one. -- Dave "First Strike" Pare

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