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Comment Re:Massive failure from all involved (Score 4, Insightful) 82

This isn't so much about modeling thought processes as it is about illustrating how even in a simplified model one of our debugging approaches fails.

The logic that they're arguing appears to be:

"If we can't even properly reverse engineer an extremely simple deterministic computer chip using fault modeling, it's extremely unlikely that we can infer the mechanisms of an extremely complex non-deterministic processor like the brain."

Comment Re: Great strides (Score 1) 129

This criticism is based on a naive look at $/kg aka you sacrifice 30% of payload for re-use and it costs 30% more. But that ignores the fact that many launches are already well within the capabilities of the launcher so there isn't a 30% additional payload that anyone wants to send.

It's a bit like the old trope "An SUV uses less fuel per passenger than a car!" while ignoring the regular use cases where a bus operates at half or quarter capacity.

It also only assumes a 30% reduction in cost/kg which is where SpaceX is *starting* at with re-use and will undoubtedly improve as they apply the lessons learned from returned stages.

Comment Re:No Gut no Glory (Score 1) 67

I think once you reach 98%+ reliability the most expensive part of the failure: grounding the fleet, no longer occurs. Once the Falcon 9 design stabilizes this year if they lose one after 50 successful launches they'll probably take a few weeks off but not months on end. There was even a substantially shorter down-time in 2016 with the most recent failure than in 2015.

And the other thing they have going for them now is re-usability and re-use. That could hypothetically result in new failure modes but it also should catch any obvious manufacturing flaws. Rapid re-use also means loads of more data and experience. If they can prove that their design is 98% reliable it just becomes "Welp, insurance will cover that. Sorry about the inconvenience."

Comment Re:About letting us choose everything? (Score 1, Interesting) 156

At some point fragmentation causes serious issues. This wasn't a problem when they would release a major release every 5 years and a couple service packs inbetween. Now they're making substantial changes and feature improvements on a bi-annual basis. If most people are 2 years behind developers will have to target 10 different OS configurations instead of 2 (those who are on the latest and those who are deferred for a few months).

Comment Re:Unlimited? (Score 2) 196

It's unlimited right up to the moment where they no longer want you as a customer. It is truly unlimited. But they're letting you know that you only get one month unlimited before you'll be kicked to the curb.

If you offer "free electricity!" but someone comes and plugs in a hybrid car through an extension cord you can ban them and it doesn't make the electricity they used any more or less free.

Comment Re:It happens, but way too commonly with google (Score 2) 150

And be extra wary if you're not paying for a service and don't see an obvious revenue model.

I don't see many people developing, deploying and maintaining a video chat service for less than the occasional hassle of changing providers who use a sane API. Integration should be incredibly simple and inexpensive. You could have many dozen Google Hangout type services shutter and still save time and money over developing it and hosting it in-house.

Comment Re: Would be nice... (Score 3, Insightful) 75

As a side note, I'm really uncomfortable with their plan to make IPS entirely out of carbon fibre. As they're finding out (and has others have found out in the past), it's really difficult to use LOX with composites.

Well for one thing the pressure in a COPV is several orders of magnitude higher than in a LOX tank so it seems foolish to over react to a failure of composites under extreme pressure and exotic conditioned when future applications will be different in nearly every way. Secondly, you could always work exactly the same as a COPV and line the interior of the composite structure with a thin layer of aluminum to prevent any contact at all. In fact we don't even know if that's not already the plan. In this instance SpaceX simply didn't think it was necessary to prevent contact of LOX and carbon and they were arguably right until they pushed the conditions slightly too far, it's telling that they are returning to flight with the exact same hardware.

You can't radically upset the economics of space flight by doing the exact same things the exact same way everybody else has always done it. You'll end up with the same thing at the same price.

Comment Re: Musk's Deceipt (Score 1) 75

There's also the issue of two competitors for Federal launch, Boeing and Lockheed, forming a Trust and not being blocked from doing so.

While I applaud your anti-monopolistic inclination this wasn't a merger born out of anti competitive acquisitions or even a "we will lower prices by removing redundancy" this was a case where one Company won the contract and then it was found out that the other company had stolen designs through industrial sabotage.

The birth of ULA was the result of a very messed up and disastrous legal scandal. Effectively a shotgun wedding nobody really wanted to pave over the whole affair.

Comment Re: Decentralized Crime (Score 1) 116

Every seeder can carry metadata. If you want upvotes etc then you could distribute it through the peers. You could also build a simple trust system where a magnet could be signed with a trusted key. If you like one uploader you could whitelist other content by that uploader. "Only download music uploaded and signed by key XYZ". We already do that for legal content, I would expect the illegal content providers would do the same. With public/private keys as long as a provider keeps their keys safe their uploads, votes, comments etc would be blockable and promotable. Of course people would lose their keys but isn't that what happened to Kickass Torrents under the current system.

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