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Comment Re:Unpossible!11! (Score 1) 118

The strait is open because a lot of oil is getting through. It's hard to know exactly how much oil is getting through the strait for a lot of reasons. Anyone who claims to know the exact number is lying: https://www.reuters.com/busine...

But all analysts agree an increasing amount of oil is getting through. Iran has sent wave after wave of drones and missiles at ships in the strait, and almost all of it has been intercepted. Iran has moved to targeting ships farther and farther outside the strait, in hopes that doing so will be easier.

The next step is to get rid of Iran's missiles. They seem to be assembling new ones in their deep mountain tunnels, so destroying them will likely require some kind of land invasion (like paratroopers https://taskandpurpose.com/new... ). The Iranian government seems to think that the latest IAEA meetings at the UN were merely legal cover for an invasion (which isn't how Americans normally operate, Americans would see the legal proceedings as a chance to come into compliance before dying).

Comment Re:Reality (Score 1) 73

Now come on, it's quite a unique definition of intelligence, worthy of consideration.

Consider that, by the definition of "intelligence is the capability to do a lot of harm and good," Even Trump might be considered intelligent. No one else has been able to write a definition that achieves that.

Comment Re:Translation: (Score 1) 73

OpenAI's revenue is growing quickly, so it's not unreasonable that they will eventually be profitable. Uber was in the same situation, it's a common model for startups.

https://finance.yahoo.com/tech...

Will they succeed in being profitable, or will something like local AI agents ruin everything for them? That is harder to know. If you can answer that kind of question with good timing, you can make a lot of money on the stock market. Their ad revenue is growing. If they can convince large corporations to habitually use AI to write emails, and use AI to summarize those emails for the recipient that's probably a waste of time and money, but it will be money that goes to OpenAI, which will be more revenue.

Comment Re:Not an expert (Score 1) 87

Perhaps that might be seen as a bit of 'god of the gaps', but it still makes a prediction that there is a form of matter that is dark and should

I don't mind if someone makes a hypothesis that god exists and does things. It's a hypothesis, and can be treated scientifically like any other hypothesis, by experimenting and looking for evidence.

we weren't in a position to prove the Moon wasn't made of green cheese but could in the late 1960s

Before the moon landing, telescopic spectroscopy could only measure the surface of the moon. The inside is still made of cheese: that is my hypothesis.

Comment Re:Or, counterpoint, it stole somebody else's work (Score 3, Interesting) 97

It is in that context that I said “it would be simpler if Levent was not an Anthropic employee” because I felt it would be inappropriate for an Anthropic employee to author OpenAI’s work. Importantly it was admitted that internal Anthropic models had been used in their proof of Euler blowup; I therefore felt I could not consider Levent to be an independent academic.

ROTFL this shows he's definitely thinking of protecting the company, not thinking about pure academic work.

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