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Comment Re:No, they clealy haven't embraced AI enough (Score 1) 72

And then an AI to fire the guys who signed off on the AI signing off on the decisions middle managers that signed off on the AI signing off on AI code output.
I'm very interested in LLMs, and have been using them in all kinds of cool places... but seriously, this shit is just clown shoes.

Comment Re:Ah! I missed that at first... (Score 2) 79

Pretty solid pondering.
I'm inclined to agree as someone pretty deeply embedded in the bullshit currently, 20 years into my career as a software engineer.
Though only thing I'm not so sure about is the large paycheques part.
Mostly, we've been looking at this semi-sentient codegen operators as disposable, and paying them disposable wages.

Comment Re:Not needed (Score 2) 79

Not as long as the SOTA models retain a significant advantage over the open models- people will keep paying for them.
And they do, and every time it looks like they might eventually fall behind, they leap forward.

The real question isn't about the inference- it's when do the SOTA models hit the wall of what it costs to train them. That's the magic that the bubble is fueling. Inference is a legitimate commodity. People paid for compute before AI, and they will after AI. But nobody at the front of the pack has figured out how to make training pay for itself.

Comment Re:How do you "slow an orbit"? (Score 1) 52

You're also talking speed...

Correct. Because it's all that matters when computing an orbit.

12.3km/s.

12 to leave the solar system. 30 to reach the sun.

Force moves thing... not speed. Speed would be the big rock (big splash, little waves).

No, speed is a reaction to force. I can give you the values in force if you like, but they're less helpful. Orbital parameters care not what amount of force it took to move something (which is dependent upon the mass of the thing you're moving), only its velocity.

I'm not getting through to you, but you fundamentally misunderstand how orbital mechanics work.
You can't "drop" something into the sun. You have to decelerate it from the current velocity of the Earth by enough velocity for it to fall into the sun. That value is 30km/s. Decelerate it any less than that, and it will not hit the sun, it will merely enter a highly elliptical orbit around it.

How much force will it take to move an 11kT rock into an orbit that will intersect the sun? 20,000 Starships of force, because each Starship can only accelerate the rock by ~1.5m/s.
It's all math, man. Your intuition is leading you to misunderstand how it all works.
If you'd like to try to learn about how it all works.

Comment Re: Let's be honest (Score 1) 79

Sorry, this is simply not true.
You can stretch the argument to absurdity, of course. But deterministic behavior does not imply "can survival all problems", it merely means "reacts to them as programmed, in a deterministic fashion".

Computers are deterministic.
Even in the case of an unrecoverable ECC error, they react deterministically. Hell, that's the entire point of ECC memory, so that the machine can react deterministically- i.e., it can know when memory has been corrupted, and react accordingly.

Comment Re: Let's be honest (Score 1) 79

There's always external factors.

External factors are not non-determinism.
They're simply uncontrolled factors.

In a single program, the OS can interrupt you.

Unless you're using an OS that doesn't.

In a distributed system, the timing between components isn't synchronized.

Unless it is.

Cosmic rays can flip bits and ECC will usually fix it, but not always.

Won't happen to you in your lifetime (uncorrectable).

There's always some external thing making things less predictable than you'd like.

Absolutely. And all things can be accounted for, and corrected for. Things that aren't corrected for are not an indictment of the determinism of your programming language or computer, they're an indictment of your programming.
And that isn't meant as a slight- in 99.9% of cases, correcting for all factors simply isn't necessary, so isn't done.

Comment Re:How do you "slow an orbit"? (Score 1) 52

So, change it's orbit enough that it'll avoid Earth, Venus, and Mercury (and the moons and the other junk piles), so that it's orbit will take it into the big ball of fusion nearby.

I explained this to you.
It requires more energy to make it intersect with the sun (over twice as much) that it does to make it leave the solar system.
And even the amount that it takes to leave the solar system is more than all of the rocket fuel mankind has ever used for even a small space rock.

It doesn't have to be rocket's firing all the way... just shove it far enough that it's orbital trajectory will smack it into the big ball of fusion. It can be the size of Starship, just a gas tank with a computer and comms, with a grabber thingy to clamp onto the object and get it far enough out to do the job. Or, leave the craft attached with a fullish tank, and give it an occasional "gentle nudge" as far as you can afford.

Delta-v is the measurement of how much change of velocity is required to transition one orbit to another.
To create any orbit that impacts the sun, it requires a minimum of 30km/s of delta-v.
To create an orbit that is hyperbolic (never comes back), it only takes 12km/s. It would make no sense to try to put something into the sun.
As explained before, even the 12km/s is far too much to move a space rock. We simply don't have the capability.
Starship, refueled entirely in orbit, then also refueled entirely at the asteroid, then using 100% of its fuel to push the asteroid would impart 1.5 meters/s of delta-v on that rock.
Only 20,000 more Starships to go before you've put it into the sun.

I suppose you could take an "Armageddeon"-style approach (maybe minus the Bruckheimer shine, you could leave the 'shine' for the news crews).

Armageddon-style is a mixed bag.
For a truly large impactor, it won't really make a difference. The planet surface is going to burn either way- either by the atmosphere being raised to the temperature of a broiling oven across its entire surface, or it spreading out from a central impact point.
For small impactors, blowing the thing to fucking hell can make a lot of sense, since it doesn't have enough mass to cause planetary scale effects.

Comment Re: Let's be honest (Score 1) 79

Personally I find a deterministic universe implausible because of how hard it is to make a computer program deterministic. It takes a lot of careful design choices to maintain that property.

Computer programs are 100% deterministic. If they fail to be so, then your CPU is broken.
Don't confused "these interactions are effing too complicated to fully grok" with "sometimes 1+1=3."

Personally I find a deterministic universe implausible because of how hard it is to make a computer program deterministic. It takes a lot of careful design choices to maintain that property.

Well, to be fair- there are different kinds of determinism.
Classical physics are deterministic in principle, but not in practice.
I.e., there's enough thermodynamic noise and chaotic interactions that even in a deterministic classical regime, you have to zoom out quite a bit for things to be deterministic.

Quantum mechanics have a fundamentally unknowable amount of uncertainty. In the Copenhagen interpretation, that's handled stochastically- i.e., we model that uncertainty with random numbers.

Transistors, though, at least in the regime of a CPU? Completely deterministic, just as neurons are almost certainly deterministic.

Comment Re:How do you "slow an orbit"? (Score 1) 52

If you're curious about the exact numbers, it takes ~30km/s of delta-v to drop something in the sun, and about 12km/s of delta-v to send it out of the solar system.

Applying even 12km/s of delta-v to something with tens of thousands- up to millions of metric tons of mass would require more thrust than all rockets mankind has ever launched, ever.

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