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Wave of Resignations Predicted As Pandemic Lockdown Ends (axios.com) 298

tomhath writes: Economists are predicting a massive wave of resignations in the coming months. Up to 40% of employees at some companies are considering career changes after working from home or living on unemployment supplement for a year. The reasons are varied -- burnout, unwillingness to return to the office, opportunity to change while on unemployment all factor into it.
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Wave of Resignations Predicted As Pandemic Lockdown Ends

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  • i'll bite (Score:2, Insightful)

    by GoTeam ( 5042081 )
    Will the people resign before they find a new job, or after?
    • Re:i'll bite (Score:5, Insightful)

      by LatencyKills ( 1213908 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:41PM (#61486900)
      Speaking entirely for myself, I plan to resign before I have found another job. I've had dear friends die during the pandemic, and it has made me realize I'm not going to die behind a desk, and especially for a company I don't like working for. I might retire entirely, but I've already put out feelers and gotten some positive feedback. If nothing else, the pandemic made it difficult to interview for a job. I'm sure if I want a job, I'll find a job.
    • Re:i'll bite (Score:5, Interesting)

      by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:46PM (#61486922) Homepage

      I quit my job a few months ago without having a new job lined up. I've been going through interviews and currently have one offer. I hope to have another within a few days and then I'll pick one of the offers (or the only one if I don't get another one.)

      Both potential new jobs are 100% remote. I will never go back to a job that requires in-office presence.

      • Re: i'll bite (Score:4, Insightful)

        by peterww ( 6558522 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:55PM (#61486974)

        Until you can't find another remote job.

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by Anonymous Coward

          Which won't be a problem because there's a) a shortage of IT workers, and b) anyone looking at switching jobs right now can tell you the vast majority of jobs are contractually fully remote with no plan to go back.

          So keep dreaming, but there will now always be plenty of fully remote IT jobs forever, because companies have to offer it to get the best talent. Any company that doesn't will fall into irrelevance as they're dependent on people who are desperate and not able to pick and choose the job they want s

        • Re: i'll bite (Score:5, Insightful)

          by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @04:14PM (#61487256) Homepage

          I have a remote job lined up. Should I lose it or should it not work out, I'm pretty sure I'll be able to find another remote job. Employers realize that being able to hire worldwide gives them access to a vastly bigger pool of candidates than only hiring locally. (My previous job was fully remote too. The one before that was remote-during-COVID only, but that gave me the taste for it.)

      • In this case, your n of 1 is MORE than the article with an n of 0. A bunch of people saying they'll think about doing something doesn't mean anything. You took the plunge.
        • Re:i'll bite (Score:5, Informative)

          by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @04:16PM (#61487262) Homepage

          To be fair, it wasn't much of a plunge. I live in Canada, so medical insurance is a non-issue. I've had 30+ years' experience in the industry and am in good financial shape... could survive a year or maybe even two with no income. Most people don't have that luxury.

    • Some yes, others no.

      They are a lot of factors including their life and financial conditions. How good or bad the current employer currently is.

    • Re:i'll bite (Score:4, Interesting)

      by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @03:03PM (#61487012)

      Depends on the general level of Fuck This Shit now doesn't it?

      As my greybeard uncle used to say, I'm two bad days in a row away from retirement...

  • by Mal-2 ( 675116 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:08PM (#61486776) Homepage Journal

    Employers will take steps to protect the vital employees (as they see them), and treat everyone else as interchangeable parts. For some, this will go just fine (it's already the norm in many industries). For others, not so much. It will be "interesting times" upcoming. But will this lead to an overall improvement in working conditions? By itself, probably not -- but as part of a larger movement, maybe.

    • by klipclop ( 6724090 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:13PM (#61486786)
      My employer gave me an unsolicited raise. I think they will also accommodate a flexible wfh options for other guys in my team who want that option too. But our team is pretty good in our organization and wfh this past year has worked out very well. IMO any organization asking workers to come back when wfh was a success just means they are a shitty company and run by incompetent and insecure management.
    • > For others, not so much. It will be "interesting times" upcoming. But will this lead to an overall improvement in working conditions? By itself, probably not -- but as part of a larger movement, maybe.

      The danger that I see right now is that many companies are not training new hires very much and want someone who is already nearly perfect for the open position in terms of prior experience, etc. And it's usually taking a long time / number of applicants to find someone willing to fill the position.

      Call

      • One other option....

        Companies may base levels of PAY upon your work status....more for in office, less for remote...especially if you live somewhere with lower cost of living.

        I think we already saw FB instigating something like this.

        • by torkus ( 1133985 )

          FB did threaten to lower pay for people who moved to cheaper places.

          In a sane world, that'd be illegal but this is the good ol' US of A where business profits rule the day.

          If you're FT WFH and not in some kind of embargoed or restricted location companies should not have any say over where you live. My 2c.

          • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

            So you think, its not a big deal they might have to file taxes in additional sates, maybe countries to accommodate a single employee? Different states have different laws to that might require special compliance.

            Its completely non trivial to have employees just working wherever they want!

            • by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @04:23PM (#61487292) Homepage

              For remote work, you structure it as a contractor relationship, not an employee relationship. Then the employee is responsible for filing taxes, doing payroll, etc.

              From my perspective as the contractor, that's way better than being an employee. I incorporated a company to handle my contracts; I can pay myself a salary or if I make lots of money, I can pay dividends up to a holding company to defer taxes. This offers much more flexibility than being an employee.

              • From my perspective as the contractor, that's way better than being an employee. I incorporated a company to handle my contracts; I can pay myself a salary o

                I agree...I have been the owner of a S-Corp for a long time now.

                Sure, you have to put on your big boy pants and do a bit more paperwork, but in the long run, I prefer the freedom (no "earning days off"), and the money.

                As an independent you can very easily and LEGALLY write off things and save money on other taxes like SS and medicare, etc.

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                The UK has been clamping down in this kind of thing for years because it was a tax dodge. Not saying you are doing that, but people need to be careful and I'm sure the governments of other countries will clamp down too if they start losing too much revenue.

                From memory the deal in the UK is that if your work for a company for more than 2 years, or expect to, you are an employee and not a contractor, for tax purposes.

                • by dskoll ( 99328 )

                  Canada has clamped down to some extent, but not completely. But anyway, the contracts I'm involved in are between my clients and the company that I own. There's no question of my being an employee of the client. I am, however, an employee of my company.

                • by Bert64 ( 520050 )

                  The applies to workers based in country, and the primary reason to have a contractor relationship was to pay less tax via various means.
                  If your workers are located in another country, which is what the parent post was about, then none of this applies. The UK considers you non resident unless you spend more than 90 days per year in the UK. If you're non resident, then you're not liable for UK income tax and are expected to pay tax wherever you are legally resident.

        • by swilver ( 617741 )

          Feel free, the more barriers they throw up, the more clear it is they don't actually value you as an employee, the less reason I have to want to work there and with me many others that know their real value. Good luck recruiting only mediocre candidates in the future.

      • by torkus ( 1133985 )

        Companies are going to have to pay a significant premium to get talented hires that will work from the office full time.

        Conversely, companies can potentially save significantly by allowing FT WFH hires. Both in real estate and salary. This is how they'll try to flex their bottom line at the cost of staff...hi mr. wyoming developer. we're offering you 100k instead of 200k if you were local to our SF office because we know it's dirt cheap there.

    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:32PM (#61486860)

      Honestly, this also depends on what "better working conditions" would even mean. Some people love the office and can't wait to come back. Some people hate the office and would love to work from home. Some people love the open office and interactions that it brings. Some hate it, because it distracts them. Some prefer jobs where there are great benefits, even if there's a lesser salary. Some prefer no benefits and higher salary instead.

      Preferences vary wildly, just like people's personality traits vary wildly. Modern work life has been moulded by combination of interests of employers and interests of employees. Even if current crisis adds more weight to interests of employees over interests of employers, interests of employers are also wildly different and often mutually exclusive based on personalities of people involved.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by cayenne8 ( 626475 )

      Employers will take steps to protect the vital employees (as they see them), and treat everyone else as interchangeable parts.

      And this will be different than before the pandemic exactly how....?

      Job security, and company/employee loyalty flew out the window at least 30 years ago.

      There is no such thing as job security nor company loyalty.

      I used to never get it when companies would have big meetings and sometimes actually pay consultants for corporate culture type things....its laughable as that while the

    • I think it's more likely they'll use this to get rid of older workers without having to face age discrimination lawsuits.
    • Employers will take steps to protect the vital employees (as they see them), and treat everyone else as interchangeable parts.

      The ignorant ones will continue to assume everyone is interchangeable, and assume they can replace them with a snap of their finger.

      (You should see them walking around all day long snapping their fingers...it's practically a dance move now.)

    • by torkus ( 1133985 )

      Yes and no.

      A lot of companies aren't going to be able to keep their stars. Folks are burned out and want a change. A new location. Not to be forced back into the office. Heck, LOTS of people moved because they had to WFH and their previous living situation made that difficult or impossible. Companies telling people to move back or suck it up for some now-ridiculous commute? (after they dumped most of the transition to WFH on their employees with minimal help)

      Rather doubt this will play out like compan

  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:12PM (#61486782)
    Handed in my resignation last Friday. My firm decided that all work that was done from the office by 4 people can be done remotely by 2. They are wrong, there is a huge backlog despite longer hours and a number of critical issues remain unresolved. Only now they will have to hire 3 more people (probably 4) as I found a new job and promotion.

    In my case this was nothing to do with return to office (I don't mind) and everything to do with hiring freeze since COVID started. I won't continue doing job of multiple people just because I don't have to commute anymore.
  • That's what they said. Vaccine came around and now that directive has been rescinded. Fortunately enough people are still unemployed that traffic is light and parking is easier.

    • No more Youtube videos of animal herds wandering the streets.

    • I think if it is a case if they promised work from home for a long time, and especially if they hired people to work from home, bringing them back to the office is unfair.

      However, I expect most of the companies made it clear that this is only a temporary condition, and I think some of the employees were just being overly hopeful, that it would stick, even though the workplace never mentioned that.

  • by sinij ( 911942 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:16PM (#61486800)

    Dear XXXX:

    After an appropriate period of deliberation, I have come to the decision to tender my resignation from XXXX, effective April 1, 2005.

    Please know that I still maintain a high level of respect for you as a manager and supervisor, and I thank you sincerely for the support and assistance you have offered me in each of those roles. I have been proud to work for XXXX over the past three years; it has been a journey that has provided me an unparalleled foundation to move forward to new and exciting opportunities.

    As such, I have decided to become a professional pirate. It has always been a dream of mine to live the life of a swashbuckling corsair, beholden to none and master of all I survey. Once my crew of unabashed rogues is assembled, we shall take to the capacious expanse of the high seas to pursue fortune, fame, and hair-raising adventure.

    Our path may not be filled with the porcine comforts and technological marvels that XXXX provides, but we shall nonetheless move forward to carve a name for ourselves in the annals of bold insurgency and death-defying derring-do. Once I have a keen blade at my hip and the Jolly Roger is flapping high above me, I believe I will find my true calling.

    Please note that I am currently accepting applications for First Officer, if you are at all interested in applying. I will provide a full medical and dental plan, which will offer immediate coverage of all maladies other than scurvy and the occasional bout of rickets.

    Sincerely,

    • by CoolDiscoRex ( 5227177 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:54PM (#61486958) Homepage

      I’d like to apply for the First Mate position.

      I don’t know how to sail, I get seasick, and I don’t like conflict. Since I’m from Seattle, and we don’t compete here, I will expect a cut of the booty whether we win or lose. While I’m not one for confrontation, if you need someone to leave a pissy note on someone’s ship, anonymously of course, or you need someone to be a bad ass on Twitter, look no further. I speak snarky one-liner fluently.

      Oh, I assume the other pirates will agree with me about everything? Cause I’m both tolerant and diverse and I refuse to be around anyone who isn’t. Matter of fact, if you can put one of those fashionable signs up on the ship. You know, one of those “The following groups are not welcome on this ship:”, and then list a bunch of subjective groups that most people claim to hate, that would be perfect. Oh, and it would be great if you scan Slashdot a couple of times per day and mod as “Troll” anyone who doesn’t agree with me. Consider it part of our commitment to tolerance and diversity. It’s important that we only tolerate those we agree with, as that’s the difficult part of being tolerant. Anyone can tolerate those they disagree with. I like to think that we’re a cut above.

      What would you say the work/life balance of your ship is? I won the lottery and was born to affluent parents who sent me to a good school, I’m not one of those paycheck-to-paycheck deplorables (deplos as we call them). Despite having little formal education and being born to backward parents, I still expect them to progress as fast as I did. That may seem unreasonable, but I assert my affluent white privilege on that one (which trumps white privilege several times over), so so please don’t bring it up.

      Otherwise, yeah, I’m totally onboard with ...

      Actually, nevermind. I’ve decided to be an astronaut instead.

      Good luck.

    • by cmdr_klarg ( 629569 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @04:32PM (#61487316)

      I sincerely hope you're naming your ship the Crimson Permanent Assurance. Arrr!

  • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:19PM (#61486808)

    One factor I think is the biggest one, is that for over a year, those people who kept their jobs, didn't feel secure enough to leave them at the moment.

    I know for myself, I usually keep my resume out, and will entertain job recruiters for a new job. However for the past 5/6 years or so, I realized that the job market isn't going to be such a reliable place to be in, and that my job as the new guy, could be in jeopardy if a big problem came out, and I felt that soon something might happen that would put a good amount of stress on these companies, and would see who can weather the problems and who couldn't. So I kept my job, which is very stable, and mostly had put myself in a mindset that I am going to be there for a while.

    Now that such an event has happened, we are seeing which organizations are rising out of the ashes and who is really strong and who is weak. I can check hiring companies to see if they had canned a lot of their employees in 2020 or they found a way to make sure they were productive. I can see what they are doing differently now things are returning to normal. It is actually becoming a good time to change your job again. At least for about a half a decade or so, in which companies again will start to get lazy, and ignore their long term goals.

    • by Mal-2 ( 675116 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:33PM (#61486862) Homepage Journal

      They have the same management now that realizes that while many things went just fine with people working from home, it made the actual management at least an order of magnitude harder. So they expect us to go back to a routine we have grown to despise, simply because it makes their job so much more manageable. Screw that, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Find a new way to manage effectively or find another career path. They are buggy whip manufacturers.

    • by e3m4n ( 947977 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:35PM (#61486874)
      This scenario gets worse the older you get, the more kids you have, and the older those kids get. It really sucks when you think you did the right thing and wait until your 30s to have kids. Its one thing to take a risk and be out job when single. Im tough, I can probably live out of a cardboard box if it came down to it. Its entirely another situation when the lives of your family fall on your shoulders. The amount of shit you swallow on a regular basis is palpable. I bet this is in part why people go postal.
      • by Anonymous Coward

        This scenario gets worse the older you get, the more kids you have, and the older those kids get. It really sucks when you think you did the right thing and wait until your 30s to have kids.

        Yeah.

        In hindsight, I'd recommend people to have kids when they're in their early 20s. 25 at the latest.

        Not sure my 25-year-old self would agree with me...

      • by aergern ( 127031 )

        It's the same whether you have kids or not. The older you get the more crap you swallow because the fear of finding something as good comes into play. The young think the old know nothing and the old think the young know nothing. Ageism is the only acceptable ism across the spectrum still.

        • Im 50 now. My oldest just went off to college (or is about to anyway) but the younger is only 11. My priorities are getting the kids independent, pay off my mortgage, and then do whatever. For a while I even considered paying $150 and getting an FFL and just sell ammo and some collectors pieces. Without the mortgage I could probably be a Walmart greeter and be OK if the kids were grown and off on their own.
          • Im 50 now. My oldest just went off to college (or is about to anyway) but the younger is only 11. My priorities are getting the kids independent, pay off my mortgage, and then do whatever. For a while I even considered paying $150 and getting an FFL and just sell ammo and some collectors pieces. Without the mortgage I could probably be a Walmart greeter and be OK if the kids were grown and off on their own.

            Ah, a fellow older dad. I figure I'm working until I'm 70, or whenever they wont let me do this any more.

            Just hope your wife doesn't walk in your mid-50's, it's quite fashionable these days.
            It throws your financial plan out the window.

      • If we're talking 'should have', I'd have my 18 year old self start up a Roth IRA buy a triple index fund and forget about it.
    • by mark-t ( 151149 )

      One factor I think is the biggest one, is that for over a year, those people who kept their jobs, didn't feel secure enough to leave them at the moment.

      This, exactly.

      Reasonably, if the employee were so secure in their view that they could find another job if they wanted one without any effort and they dislike their job enough that they are actually unwilling to suffer through a commute, then I think it is likely the case that they would have left their job even before the pandemic started.

      The fact that

  • Mass retirements (Score:5, Insightful)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:34PM (#61486864)
    there's a ton of folks in their 60s who can retire but choose not to. That said, there's an excellent chance this will just be used as an excuse to get rid of older workers without fear of age discrimination lawsuits while replacing them all with H1-Bs...

    Also these kinds of articles are often just there to provide an excuse for cuts to unemployment benefits, safety nets and to wages in general. Mississippi is literally at full employment and is cutting federal unemployment benefits. Tennessee is only at 5% and they're doing the same. Every honest economist has come out and said it's for political reasons, but it's not. It's to depress wages.

    And let's not forget, Unemployment isn't there to help the unemployed. It's there to help those still employed. Because there's millions of people out there who got a taste of what it's like to have enough money for rent and food, and they're coming for your job. That'll mean your boss has more options, and firing you or cutting your pay is gonna look real attractive real fast.
    • by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:48PM (#61486932)
      tons of people in their early 60's, but can't till Medicare can kick in @ 65. If the US, like every other industrial country, had health care, there would be boatloads of good paying and managerial jobs available.
      • tons of people in their early 60's, but can't till Medicare can kick in @ 65. If the US, like every other industrial country, had health care, there would be boatloads of good paying and managerial jobs available.

        There's also the fact that their raising the age you have to wait to collect your FULL Social Security benefits.

        For many right now, that age is 68yrs.

        • The best part about that is that even though people are living longer their ability to work hasn't increased. The majority of Americans, especially in Blue collar but also White, become useless around 65 and get forced into quote *retirement* unquote.

          It's going to be interesting times when Gen X is too old to work but too young to retire. Tens of millions of people with absolutely nothing to lose and lots of guns.
      • 67 if you're not a baby boomer. One of the things that really sucks and slash Dot should be very aware of is that most of us are Gen X and we're going to get passed over.

        The boomers aren't retiring because they need health care, and by the time they're old enough to get that healthcare and they have enough money saved a way to cover the gaps in Medicare Gen X have aged out an employers will hire the younger millennials.
  • Once the eviction moratorium is over, this chatter will be over too. It's called capitalism, that means you're owned, not the other way around.
  • Or Just Ask (Score:5, Interesting)

    by lsllll ( 830002 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:50PM (#61486942)

    Posting as AC for several reasons...

    I contract at a university and they've already said August 1st everyone is going back in. I was on-site pre-pandemic and just told them that I'd like to continue to work from home come August. Their answer? No problem at all, as long as my standard of work continues to be up.

    I get it that I'm a contractor and it's much easier to justify letting me work from home than regular employees, but sometime you just may need to let them know your preference. If they make you go in, they you can still quit afterward. It's better to go in with an attitude of "I'll quit if you're going to force me to go back."

    • by lsllll ( 830002 ) on Monday June 14, 2021 @02:50PM (#61486944)
      lol. So much for posting as AC!
    • The push to go back into the office is largely coming not because of preferences but because of property values. If 30% to 40% of employees suddenly work from home it's going to tank the value of commercial real estate. The people who own that are among the top billionaires in the world. Add that to fast food restaurants want you on the road and working long hours so you're too tired to cook or even wait for a fast casual place to make a meal for you. Heck where I used to live the local fast food joints fou
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by gawavod704 ( 8216570 )
        Right. The property owners are colluding with the business owners to make the business owners pay them rent so the property owners can get richer. And they are colluding with the fast food restaurants too. Wow, you have gone off the rails rsilvergun. Have you seen a psychiatrist?
  • by xanthos ( 73578 ) <[xanthos] [at] [toke.com]> on Monday June 14, 2021 @03:58PM (#61487196)
    As someone who has spent many many years working in the corporate world it is my opinion that the resignations that will come will be do to people not wanting to give up the time and freedom they have gained from working remotely. Let's see, I can spend 15 minutes BSing around the water cooler or doing my laundry. If I do the laundry between conference calls or while listening to the weekly corporate town hall meeting then I don't have to use my time in the evening or on the weekend to do it. Win for me. Not commuting 2 hours a day to work, win for me. The stinginess of companies in giving their employees enough time to live a life is legendary. We wouldn't be constantly hearing the "work life balance" platitudes if corporate america wasn't aware of how badly they were screwing people over.

    Here is a simple thought experiment for you. Say you currently make $104K a year and get 4 weeks off and your manager gives you 3 options. Stay the same, make $102K but get 5 weeks off, or make $106k but get only 3 weeks off. Which you choose says a lot about you.
    • by ghoul ( 157158 )
      Regarding your last question even if you get 5 weeks off, if all the work is piled up when you come back the vacation just increases stress. When I worked in Europe we had a vacation planner for the whole team and we planned our project deadlines around it so generally someone would go on vacation at the end of a project for 3-4 weeks and come back and start on a new project. Nothing hanging over their head so vacation was real vacation. In the US everyone is so high on privacy they are not willing to share

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