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Businesses

The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat (wsj.com) 140

Factories across Asia are struggling to attract young workers, which is bad news for Western consumers accustomed to inexpensive goods. From a report: The workplace features floor-to-ceiling windows and a cafe serving matcha tea, as well as free yoga and dance classes. Every month, workers gather at team-building sessions to drink beer, drive go-karts and go bowling. This isn't Google. It's a garment factory in Vietnam. Asia, the world's factory floor and the source of much of the stuff Americans buy, is running into a big problem: Its young people, by and large, don't want to work in factories.

That's why the garment factory is trying to make its manufacturing floor more enticing, and why alarm bells are ringing at Western companies that rely on the region's inexpensive labor to churn out affordable consumer goods. The twilight of ultracheap Asian factory labor is emerging as the latest test of the globalized manufacturing model, which over the past three decades has delivered a vast array of inexpensively produced goods to consumers around the world. Americans accustomed to bargain-rate fashion and flat-screen TVs might soon be reckoning with higher prices. "There's nowhere left on the planet that's going to be able to give you what you want," said Paul Norriss, the British co-founder of the Vietnam garment factory, UnAvailable, based in Ho Chi Minh City. "People are going to have to change their consumer habits, and so are brands."

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The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat

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  • by IWantMoreSpamPlease ( 571972 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @02:55PM (#63747882) Homepage Journal

    Then I"m okay with the price increase. If not, and its the same old disposable crap, well then we have a problem.

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @02:59PM (#63747894)
      Thank to 40 years of unchecked market consolidation there's virtually no real competition in the market, with 7 companies making virtually everything you own.

      I'm sure, out of the goodness of their hearts, they'll make higher quality merchandise to make up for the increased cost, rather than simply pocket the money themselves. I mean, that would be wrong. Next thing you know they might cause record inflation via price gouging [axios.com] and collusion on rent prices. [propublica.org]
      • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

        Oligopolies almost always suck. Maybe they make sense for big, longer-term expensive things, like aerospace; but for most other products they ruin competition & customer service like clock-work.

        • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:32PM (#63748000)
          True, but voters seem unwilling or unable to vote for politicians who'll break them up. For every one Katie Porter or Liz Warren I can point to three Kirsten Sinemas and a Kevin McCarthy...
          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            by Tablizer ( 95088 )

            The rich lobby heavily to persuade people that "gov't interference hobbles the Great Job Creators (1%)." The rich have many ways to buy laws and buy politicians. It's sick.

            • Yeah when I was a kid it was called "Trickle Down Economics". Wonder what they'll call it next after people realize "Job Creators" is a scam.
          • by storkus ( 179708 )

            You have this completely backwards: the only politicians that will run for office are those who will take some palm grease from those same companies that don't want to be broken up. It is, quite simply, capitalism in the Capitol, and those that won't play ball don't make the cut.

          • True, but voters seem unwilling or unable to vote for politicians who'll break them up. For every one Katie Porter or Liz Warren I can point to three Kirsten Sinemas and a Kevin McCarthy.

            This is a direct result of dividing voters based on party denomination... but yeah, go Team Democrat amiright?

      • First off, this phenomenon is only going to take money out of the pockets of those "7 companies". Sure they can try to raise prices, but that curtails consumer spending beyond a certain point, especially if quality does not follow.

        Secondly, name those "7 companies" that make "virtually everything" we own. If you can't, or won't name them up front, then it should be clear you are being dishonest.

        • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

          Secondly, name those "7 companies" that make "virtually everything" we own. If you can't, or won't name them up front, then it should be clear you are being dishonest.

          Well, I can't name 7 companies, but 10 companies make practically everything you put in your mouth (and then some). You will recognize some of them, like General Mills, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Kract, while others like Unilever make a ton more stuff beyond food.

          Practically everything you see at the grocery store comes from one of the 10 companie

    • It's all ok with me.

      I have pretty much everything I want by now....

    • by Petersko ( 564140 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @05:36PM (#63748442)

      Well then we have a problem. There's no reason given to expect a quality increase. The article only discusses labor cost. In fact, you may see a dip in quality if they try to maintain prices.

    • In the 1950s Japan was the source of 'disposable crap'. Then it was Hong Kong and then much of China. Then Vietnam entered the fray, as have Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Meanwhile the other countries happily moved up the 'add value' gradient...

      If India ever gets its act together and become the new China in this sense, then there will be a prolonged supply of 'disposable crap'...

    • by fgouget ( 925644 )

      Then I"m okay with the price increase. If not, and its the same old disposable crap, well then we have a problem.

      In other words you're fine with paying more for better quality materials but not for increasing the workers' wages above slave wages.

  • by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:00PM (#63747898)

    days of cheap labor are over!

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:02PM (#63747906) Journal

      Not!

      South America and Africa are largely untapped.

      • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:16PM (#63747962)

        South America has corruption and political problems. The politics oscillate from extreme right to extreme left. Neither is good for business.

        Africa has corruption, political problems, and education problems. Even factory workers need basic literacy.

        Both places have difficulty understanding what attracts businesses. Silly rules about foreign ownership are deal killers. I currently live in the Philippines, where foreign ownership of land is banned, and most businesses require majority Filipino ownership. As a result, the East Asian tech boom has passed over the Philippines. 40 years ago, the Philippines was four times richer than China. Now China is four times richer than the Philippines.

        One country with a large population, rapidly rising literacy rates, and a government that "gets" capitalism, is Bangladesh. They already manufacture a lot of textiles and are primed to move up the value chain.

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by Tablizer ( 95088 )

          > South America has corruption and political problems. The politics oscillate from extreme right to extreme left. Neither is good for business.

          The USA is becoming like this. Not a good sign. Gerrymandering and web conspiracies/lies fuel much of it.

          But maybe when money starts flowing in from manufacturing, those countries will settle down, as people who have more wish to avoid revolutions and find compromises. Desperate people are more likely to riot and coup because they having little to lose; people wit

          • You'd think, but the US was incredibly prosperous after WWII and still chose to allow the deliberate spread of ignorance and social division, driven by people who felt that was their best chance of successfully maximizing profits from exploiting their fellow citizens. They're still flirting with fascism right now, and everyone at the top level is 100% aware of what they're doing and still playing along because they think that's what's going to be best for their wallets.

            If it all falls apart in a generation

            • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:50PM (#63748070) Journal

              The rich made a focked-up de-facto contract with fundamentalist religions: let us keep our money and we'll let you Talibanize the country. As one example, look how quickly the non-religious Don got "converted" to evangelism.

              Most wealthy are more libertarian and ordinarily don't give a shit about regulating panties, but to keep their money, they will.

          • I monday'd up the last part. Redo:

            Desperate people are more likely to riot and coup because they have little to lose, but people with means want to avoid rocking the boat because the smooth boat got them money.

        • by sxpert ( 139117 )

          and that's a good thing for local business.
          those rules are there for a reason. prevent US multinationals pillage.

        • by mjwx ( 966435 )

          South America has corruption and political problems. The politics oscillate from extreme right to extreme left. Neither is good for business.

          The other problem is that people in South America won't sit there and be silently abused until they decide to nosedive from the 3rd floor. One of the reasons they have such an extreme left was due to the abject poverty and poor working conditions of the first half of last century (and much of the 2nd half). The Drugs trade can take credit for most of the extreme right.

          Also the terrain in South America hinders a lot of industry. If you flew from LA to SF, it's about an hour and a half but only 6 hours to

      • do they have the power gird for factorys?

      • Not!

        South America and Africa are largely untapped.

        Neither of which has the Asian work ethic. You're not going to see the Asian Tigers phenomena reproduced anywhere else.

        • That trope is as racist now as when it originated in the days of slavery.

          • That trope is as racist now as when it originated in the days of slavery.

            You can call it racist all you like. Reality doesn't give a shit about your feelings. In 30 years, Asia will still be prosperous, and Africa and South America will still be undeveloped backwaters, largely because of the cultures of the people that live there.

            If you had the chance to make huge money... millions even... on a bet about the futures of those two continents, but you had to bet everything... your house, savings, etc.... would you?

            • Yikes. Have you even been to these places? I'd love for you to visit Santiago, Chile and tell me with a straight face it's an "undeveloped backwater." None of this has anything to do with my "feelings", but a lot of your bias seems to have some pretty big feels behind it.

              I actually do business in Africa (mostly West Africa) and am heading there in a few weeks. You might be surprised to discover modern office towers in cities you've written off as "undeveloped backwaters." There are lots of good reasons why

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        South America and Africa are largely untapped.

        An unfortunate development in Africa recently has been governments taking out loans from China, not being able to keep up with interest rates, and China calling in the debts.
        A whole lot of African ports of call are now chinese owned, controlling everything that flows through them.
        Same with a lot of businesses, including factories.

        Africa is slowing becoming Chinas China.
        I'm not sure that will bode well for the US.

      • by eth1 ( 94901 )

        South America and Africa are largely untapped.

        I suspect the reason for that is that many places there they have people like the Wagner group, cartels, and other warlords that show up at your door with guns and armored vehicles and say, "that's a nice factory you've got there..."

        Until they can improve stability, it's not going to be cheaper to manufacture stuff there.

        • by sxpert ( 139117 )

          somehow they seem to prefer the chinese and russians to the americans or europeans these days...

      • by sxpert ( 139117 )

        you haven't been following... looks like South America and Africa are fed up of the west's exploitation tactics...

      • South America and Africa are largely untapped.

        Historically they aren't. In a modern sense, China is already fetching from that barrel.

    • by PCM2 ( 4486 )

      days of cheap labor are over!

      Except in the West (the customer markets for these cheap goods), where wages have stagnated for decades.

      • by clonan ( 64380 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:39PM (#63748038)

        Wages in the west have stagnated BECAUSE of cheap labor in Asia...

        I am looking forward to manufacturing moving back to the West as Asian labor market get more expensive and transport costs increase due to fuel and security costs which remove all the financial benefits of manufacturing in Asia evaporate.

        This will leave the Asian labor markets demanding better conditions and manufacturing balanced between East and West. This all strikes me as a good thing.

  • Are profit-seeking firms incentivized to just be lazy and raise prices instead of increading efficiency?

    • by CAIMLAS ( 41445 )

      There is a limit to what can be automated. There are certain things which can't even be done by automation (eg. for instance, certain stitches can only be done by hand, and the complexity of simple human interactions with the physical world are still unachievable with machines in many cases).

      To be clear, there's little that can be done to rectify this situation from a market perspective. This is an example of companies being able to make cheap shit because they're relying on the (depressed) local economies.

    • by dvice ( 6309704 )

      What comes to garment industry I think the biggest speed bump is that when ever a factory invents a way to automate something, they keep it as a secret, instead of selling the invention to all the factories. Even new companies that invent automation, decide not to sell the machine, but instead setup a factory and sell products made by the machine, like happened with sewbot that makes t-shirts.

      Also many factories are quite low tech, poor education places. It is not like they have an AI team there inventing n

    • Take China. Please.

      In the past, they had plenty of people to brute-force production. There was no need to industrialize things like farming equipment, textiles, manufacture of toys, etc.

      Take the US. Please.

      They didn't have nearly enough manual labor, so they mechanized. That's what hurled them to the richest economy in the world so quickly.

      In both China and the US, people don't want to work in factories or farms for low wages. The US built machines and China used humans.

      As the globe matures, fewer people wa

  • At some point, it will be cheaper to have robots make things than to hire people.

    This just in: The 1970s US auto industry just called and said "that's not new."

    This just in: The industrial revolution just called and said "ahem *cough*"

    • by sxpert ( 139117 )

      this just in: we've already maxed out bullshit jobs to occupy people, and they've started to notice that what they're doing is useless. this trend may not continue for long

  • So, stuff you got at the dollar store may now be twice as expensive, potentially doubling wages for those manufacture those goods. For most in the US & EU, that won't be a significant problem or concern.

    Honestly, I bet 80% of the cost of those ultra-cheap items is tied to transporting and presenting them to customers. So, a $1 item probably costs $0.20 to manufacture. If they double that cost, the end cost only needs to go up $0.20/item. Barely a blip on the radar for most. And since the cost of goods w

    • And since the cost of goods would not change, whoever actually makes that product could be paid the majority of that amount.

      They COULD be paid the majority of that amount, but they won't. What happens in reality is that the increase in profits is given to shareholders or stock buybacks (if it's a publicly traded company), executive bonuses, larger campuses, or anything else that doesn't amount to paying employees more.

      • True. But if they can't get people to work for the amounts they currently pay, I showed its relatively trivial to greatly increase that pay without causing prices to the consumer to raise much.

  • a figure made today costs twice what one 6 or 7 years ago and with much less detail and engineering. Look up the recently made He-Man "He-Ro" figure and compare it to the one from 10 years ago from Matty Collector and it's like night and day. And even inflation adjusted the price isn't that far off, it's just labor costs are way, way up.

    Africa's the next stop on the cheap labor train, with Russia & China moving in hard. The US has a tough time getting a foothold there where the cheap labor is becaus
  • May be we can return the production back to our countries. This is a good thing.
    • by dvice ( 6309704 )

      It is good for the country where the factory is build, bad for the country where it leaves. And as work is automated, there will be most likely something like 1000 jobs lost in one country for 1 job gained in another (not instantly, but in the long run, because automation is must more likely to happen in western rich countries than it is in countries where labor is cheap). I still think it is a good thing, even it will most likely cause total destruction of some countries, especially in garment industry.

      • If people refuse to work in factories in those countries, they nothing of value was lost, now was it? Automation will only start to happen when it's more affordable to do so.

        So if Asian countries no longer have a population willing to do factory work, they can hardly be concerned with losing those jobs, now can they?

  • Good?

    I mean, in the developed world, we have too much stuff anyway. Anything that discourages us from buying frivolous, disposable, imported crap is probably a net positive for our collective well-being.

    But of course, the real problem is that it isn't just consumer goods that'll increase in price, but things people actually need to stay alive and healthy.
  • More more more! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by kackle ( 910159 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:21PM (#63747976)
    On a burning planet, making "less stuff" sounds like a good idea to me.
  • They can treat their people like crap. These are cheap junk knock off makers(sell except for the rich elites basketball industry, clothing, phone and tennis shoe makers). The truth is most people would be better served buying something else of better quality.
  • Rich people buy cheap stuff from poor people, who use the income to bootstrap themselves out of poverty. This eventually lifts the entire country up economically until everything levels out.

    I - most likely along with everyone else reading this - have been living an artificially high standard of living based on the exploitation of poorer nations. This is a levelling out. It was never going to last forever.

    A lot of the cheap labour from undeveloped countries will be replaced by robots anyway, so it's not

  • Good (Score:4, Insightful)

    by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:29PM (#63747994) Homepage

    That's fine. We don't need so much stuff anyway. Reducing the amount of stuff we have (and increasing its quality) is good for the environment and in the long run, probably better for our happiness too.

    • Seriously - why is this considered bad? Our cushy lifestyles shouldn't be built on the backs of (essentially) slave laborers.

  • Since the dawn of the industrial revolution, the garment industry has always chased cheap labor. Most the cost of clothing is the labor that goes into making it. While some things can be automated, there are important steps that are extremely resistant to automation. As countries come up out of poverty, the industry moves onto another poor country. As Jesus is famously quoted as having said "the poor will always be with us."

    100 years ago, it was sweatshops manned by immigrant labor in New York city (see Tri

  • by AmazingRuss ( 555076 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @03:46PM (#63748056)
    The vast majority of what we buy ends up in the landfill in just a few years. Most of that has nothing to do with keeping us alive or comfortable... it's all about making us feel good when we buy it. We literally create garbage to make ourselves feel good.
  • They'll outsource manufacturing to non-industrialized countries, wherever they can get labor the cheapest. A generation ago that was the West outsourcing to Asia, next it will be Asia outsourcing to Africa and South America.

    This is what China's Belt & Road initiative is setting up: economic colonization, before the West ever thinks of doing it.

    The era of ultracheap stuff will persist until no more countries remain to exploit for cheap labor.

  • There is no threat, merely change.

  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @05:14PM (#63748374) Journal

    "...The twilight of ultracheap Asian factory labor is emerging as the latest test of the globalized manufacturing model..."

    I think this is FANTASTIC and will do more to reduce pollution and improve our planet fundamentally than a vast array of other suggestions.

    The fact is that the west has been enjoying what is exploitation of people with a much lower and cheaper standard of living, really since the Asian manufacturing move in the 1970s.
    Certainly some of this production will move to the 'next' cheaper region, Africa. However, as that region is not nearly as politically stable, it's harder for bean-counters to hand-wave externalities in their calculations.

    I'm all for it. We don't need a new phone every 3 years, or a new TV every 4, or a new car every 5. Once the ultracheaps are culled from the production stream, consumers may (I hope) recognize that durability, repairability, and workmanship are now something worth paying for if you're going to keep that formerly-disposable piece of furniture for 40 years instead of 5.
    This can only help domestic firms that can get good, skilled workers but formerly had to compete with overseas shops paying a pittance in labor.

    No, I see this as the deathknell of the disposable culture, and a long term unalloyed good.

  • by fleeped ( 1945926 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @05:18PM (#63748388)
    Ultra-cheap stuff need to die, and people need to go back to the mentality that you need to take care of things, so that things last. The culture of "cheap, disposable" is poisonous, for people and the planet.
    • by Reziac ( 43301 ) *

      Agreed, tho much of why we wanted "stuff that lasts" is because we were too poor to replace it.

      [But that's how I grew up, and I still want stuff that lasts, and can be repaired and repurposed when it gets beyond its original use.]

      There's another problem, tho... if these young folks no longer want to work in factories, exactly how do they expect to support themselves? Because white collar work doesn't just magically appear without goods to move, and the internet economy of nothing but electrons is basically

  • by MpVpRb ( 1423381 ) on Monday August 07, 2023 @06:00PM (#63748494)

    Ultra cheap, disposable crap sucks
    I will gladly pay a fair price for quality stuff

    • Ultra cheap, disposable crap sucks I will gladly pay a fair price for quality stuff

      You and many others here seem to think that the alternative to cheap is high quality. It's really not. The alternative to cheap is expensive... but quality won't be appreciably different. If the era of cheap labor ends your standard of living will just go down because your money won't go as far.

  • ...complaining that they can't pay workers even shittier wages. It's the same story everywhere. There's not as many real labour shortages as we're led to believe & their impact doesn't seem to be particularly significant. In contrast, when there really are labour shortages, e.g. post-Brexshit, you immediately see the impact on the shelves; many are empty & remaining prices through the roof. Then the NHS is falling apart from a lack of qualified, experienced healthcare workers because they were force
  • It's funny because if you go watch videos from Chinese social media, the story is completely opposite.

    They can't find work at all and are forced out of the cities. The Chinese economy seems to be completely breaking down.

    • https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SS1OCFgdlkA
    • https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KEZrESi-qjw
    • https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_hfh6HASEac
  • The era of cheap stuff made by humans is heading to an end.
    The era of ULTRA cheap stuff made by fully automated machines is coming.
  • Think about a pair of jeans. To make it, you only need two cotton plants - that need 100 times the water it takes to grow the same weight in tomatoes. And a significant amount of pesticide sprayed on them to maximize yields, the runoff of which goes into local drinking water and rivers. The Dyeing, finishing, and distressing process for those jeans requires even more water, and toxic chemicals laden with heavy metals, which is all dumped directly into rivers. Consumers buy on average 4 pairs of these every

    • well certainly jeans can last a long time, but they'll be having issues after 15 years or more. I have denim things including shirts that old.

      people getting into clothing or a TV for a decade or more would be good enough.

    • Yes, we should also have tariffs on goods from countries that don't meet our environmental and labor laws to encourage them to align. At least it's happening on its own as Vietnamese have more employment opportunities. Problem is that "Western companies" will try to move production to the next cheap slum country.
  • I'm pretty sure they meant to say:alarm bells are ringing at Western companies that rely on the region's inexpensive labor to churn out fat margins for management due to non existing environmental and labor laws.
  • On the one hand, Good. On the other hand, I suspect this is the tipping point where you can no longer trade or barter anything in order to have access to food and shelter.

    When I was a kid, you could buy a 27 inch television set for about 3 months worth of rent. Now, you can buy 4 55 inch HDR televisions for less than one month of rent. That sounds great right? Well, no. The price of the television set remained roughly neutral during all of that time however, the price of food and shelter has expanded greatl

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