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Airline Passengers Will Be Forced To Pay for $5 Trillion Carbon Cleanup (bloomberg.com) 265

The aviation sector's plans to pass along the cost of decarbonization could add hundreds of dollars to the price of some fights. From a report: Fresh from surviving the Covid-19 pandemic, the aviation industry is about to hand passengers the multi-trillion dollar bill to fight its next existential threat: decarbonization. Cleaning up flying is a mission of improbable scale: Neutralize the carbon emissions of about 25,000 planes in the world's commercial fleet that typically ferry some 4 billion people a year and burn close to 100 billion gallons of jet kerosene. That's more dirty liquid to launder than all the beer drunk in the world in a year.

Some $5 trillion of capital investment may be needed to deliver on aviation's goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050, almost all of it plowed into sustainable fuel production and renewable power generation, according to McKinsey. It's a mountain of money so large it could wipe out global airline revenue for the best part of a decade. With the clock ticking, industry leaders are starting to voice an uncomfortable truth. It's clear, they say, that the costs of weaning air travel off fossil fuels will land on passengers.

Through seven decades of nearly unfettered expansion, the aviation industry had to pay little attention to emissions. Passengers grew accustomed to ever-improving connectivity, increasing competition and cheap tickets. Suddenly, carriers find themselves in an environmental squeeze, with governments setting deadlines and activists gluing themselves to runways to call attention to global warming. While Greta Thunberg introduced flight-shaming to the public before the pandemic, record temperatures this summer have only underscored climate campaigners' point. Aviation's expensive transition to cleaner fuels has the power to put the democratization of flying into reverse, leading to higher fares, and fewer routes and airlines.

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Airline Passengers Will Be Forced To Pay for $5 Trillion Carbon Cleanup

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  • Good. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by war4peace ( 1628283 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:23AM (#63759044)

    People fly because it's cheap, and they will fly from anywhere to anywhere else on a whim. Which is (would have been?) nice, because the indirect costs were thrown away as a "future them" problem.
    Now, the bill is due, and it sucks, but it's the cost of everyone being nearsighted for decades.
    Time to visit something closer while on vacay. It won't kill them.

    • People fly because it's CONVENIENT. And what of the alternative? People aren't going to suddenly just stop travelling. Let us calculate the environmental impact of billions of travel miles being done by car instead of by airplane. Whoa! I guess moving hundreds of people at a time is just slightly more efficient than moving them 1 or 2 at a time.

      • Yes, people will stop traveling on airplanes. IT IS simple as that. You obviously are out of touch with reality. Gas prices hit record highs, people start to carpool and travel much less. People will drop off airlines in DROVES. Id rather drive as standard MPH averages are clearly going up and hover around 80 mph on a freeway. You can drive 2000 miles in about 30 hours. or fly 2000 miles in about 6-12 depending on layover.
        • by sconeu ( 64226 )

          And when you have a limited amount of vacation time (*cough*USA*cough*), you don't want to spend four of those seven days driving just to get there.

      • People fly because it's convenient, of course.
        Why is it convenient? Because it's fucking cheap, that's why. Convenience is a compound result.
        Would flying willy-nilly be just as convenient after a 5 times price increase?
        A: Yes. Good, now they will fly at "true" prices.
        B: No. Your point is moot, then.

        It's not as if this wasn't happening in the past.
        People used to drive long distances less, and in a smaller percentage. There's trains, there's buses, there's carpooling.
        And yes, a lot of people are suddenly goin

      • Years ago I owned a Chevy Suburban. Even though it had the aerodynamics of a brick, it would actually get a little over 19MPG on the highway. Curiosity got the better of me, so I decided to find out whether it was better to drive or to fly for a big trip I had planned. Found out the fuel burn for various aircraft and their max passenger configurations and baggage limits. From their I could calculate the passenger-miles per gallon. Even without considering luggage, it was always better for the environment to

    • by MeNeXT ( 200840 )

      I don't know anyone who flies because it's cheap. The people I know fly for work, visit family, vacation, etc... While a small minority go up for the pleasure the majority fly for other reasons.

      The bill is due on pollution which affects almost all industries in one form or another and we are all going to pay to move away from carbon emissions. $5 trillion is nothing compared to what is needed to move the grid away from carbon emissions. Yes we are going to pay as we've done before.

      • I don't know anyone who flies because it's cheap. The people I know fly for work, visit family, vacation, etc...

        Vacation and visiting relatives by flying is happening exactly because it's cheap. Otherwise, they would take the train or whatever. Inconvenient? Sure is. But welp.
        As for flying for work purposes, most of work-related travel is not essential nowadays. The small percentage which is, well, the employer wouldn't mind paying 5 times as much, then, would they?

        • Vacation and visiting relatives by flying is happening exactly because it's cheap. Otherwise, they would take the train or whatever.

          Obviously you do not live in a country as large as the US.

          If your trip takes you even half way across the country (back and forth)...plane is about the only practical way if you want to have any meaningful time at your destination. No one wants to spend a lot their time on travel itself.

          And exactly, how is raising this price going to "pay" for carbon use, eh?

          How is this ex

        • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

          if this sticks - a big if - if the government does not excuse the air lines from carbon taxes or subsidize them so they can operate at a loss - I mean how many times have they been bailed out in one form our another, I lost count;

          It will have larger impacts on society that people realize. one of the characteristics of the later 20th and 21st centuries has been physical mobility. People take jobs on the otherside of the country because they grew up in a world of affordable, rapid travel. Take that away and

        • by jp10558 ( 748604 )

          This is all good if you never want to go from the US to Europe, or really ever want to go from one side of the US to the other. I feel like adding days of driving to a trip isn't very appealing, and depending on how it's done, is adding more hotels along the way, adding more restaurants etc better?

        • by suutar ( 1860506 )

          Distance is also a major factor in that decision. Taking a train to visit family would take 93 hours one way, according to Amtrak, and cost 800+ per person, passing through Chicago and DC. (Of course, part of the reason for the sad state of passenger rail is low usage, and an increase in airfare might help with that, but I have serious doubts that it will improve much.)
          As for driving... a 757 gets about 78 miles per gallon per seat for a 5 hour cross-country flight, or 39mpg for two people. That's better th

    • by kick6 ( 1081615 )

      People fly because it's cheap, and they will fly from anywhere to anywhere else on a whim. Which is (would have been?) nice, because the indirect costs were thrown away as a "future them" problem. Now, the bill is due, and it sucks, but it's the cost of everyone being nearsighted for decades. Time to visit something closer while on vacay. It won't kill them.

      It's all fine and good to have that opinion, but then you need to stop using "parochial" as an insult. Because in light of this, all you're really saying is they're poor.

    • People fly because it's cheap, and they will fly from anywhere to anywhere else on a whim. Which is (would have been?) nice, because the indirect costs were thrown away as a "future them" problem.
      Now, the bill is due, and it sucks, but it's the cost of everyone being nearsighted for decades.
      Time to visit something closer while on vacay. It won't kill them.

      That's the plan, I'm going to drive to my vacation spot. Happy now?

    • Time to visit something closer while on vacay.

      brb., going to buy a rundown Catskills resort.

    • People fly because it's cheap, and they will fly from anywhere to anywhere else on a whim. Which is (would have been?) nice, because the indirect costs were thrown away as a "future them" problem.

      Yep. Now we need to do the same for everything else. Cars can't just emit CO2 willy-nilly and leave it as a future problem, or buses, or trains, or ships, or factories, or...

      We need carbon taxes and carbon tariffs to push everything to decarbonize.

    • How about building out alternatives to planes?

      Canada and the US are so far behind the rest of the world with regards to trains. Why on earth would anyone fly from New York City to Chicago instead of taking a high speed train? From Montreal to Toronto by high speed train? From Edmonton to Calgary? Why aren't all the west coast cities from Vancouver BC to San Diego not connected by frequent reliable train service? Why aren't gulf towns and cities from Corpus Christi to Miami connected by train?

      Yes, sure, flyi

      • Canada and the US are so far behind the rest of the world with regards to trains. Why on earth would anyone fly from New York City to Chicago instead of taking a high speed train? From Montreal to Toronto by high speed train? From Edmonton to Calgary? Why aren't all the west coast cities from Vancouver BC to San Diego not connected by frequent reliable train service? Why aren't gulf towns and cities from Corpus Christi to Miami connected by train?

        Yes, sure, flying from Montreal to Vancouver or NYC to LA i

        • This entire post is very odd, because you seem completely content with all other modes of transportation causing all the problems you just described, but for some reason are so vehemently against trains that suddenly all those problems are far too big for the ROI?

          It seems like you have some kind of irrational hatred towards trains or something. I dunno, it's very strange.

    • by jp10558 ( 748604 )

      This is how you end up with people not travelling / experiencing different cultures and other parts of the world - which can increase provincialism - which I'd argue hurts convincing people to care or believe in "subtle" global challenges like climate change.

      If you never leave a "small" area in your life, you're less likely to viscerally understand how different parts of the world are from each other. I can't prove this, but I believe this can increase the psychology of "not happening here - not a problem f

  • Done Flying (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:23AM (#63759046)
    And this is why we Zoom. Flying sucks.
    • And this is why we Zoom. Flying sucks.

      Since when did Zoom add a Star Trek transporter feature? Must be in some super-advanced software package that I cannot afford/access/download. /sarcasm

  • Keep dreaming (Score:2, Insightful)

    by HBI ( 10338492 )

    No significant political change where people voluntarily reduced their standard of living happened peacefully. None, zero. A lot of foolish people who failed to read their history are about to be introduced to this.

    • How do you explain "trickle-down economics" then?
    • Re:Keep dreaming (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Fly Swatter ( 30498 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:36AM (#63759094) Homepage
      Standard of living has nothing to do with airplanes or air travel. Air travel has always been a wasteful dirty extravagance. Time to pay up! Or just stop flying and wasting fuel that could be heating multiple homes for an entire season for one single air plane trip.
      • Time to pay up!

        Why?

        I've not heard a convincing argument yet as to why I should give it up?

        Or just stop flying and wasting fuel that could be heating multiple homes for an entire season for one single air plane trip.

        So far I see no signs of us running out of having enough fossil fuels to fully support both activities....at least for the next few lifetimes, after which I'll be long gone and dead...and not care.

    • by jhecht ( 143058 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:59AM (#63759188)
      Standard of living includes keeping the environment livable, and to maintain that part of our standard of living we need to make tradeoffs by reducing other activities, like flying. Fewer flights, less global warming and less extreme weather.
  • it's not the shareholders that would be made to pay ? they've been ripping trillions for ages...

    • Shareholders will pay significantly as well when the values of their portfolios get throttled because airlines lose revenue and earnings as passengers cut back on air travel due of increased prices.
  • by VojakSvejk ( 315965 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:36AM (#63759088) Homepage

    Finally a journalist has found a unit I can understand!

  • by sonlas ( 10282912 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:38AM (#63759104)

    While Greta Thunberg introduced flight-shaming to the public before the pandemic, record temperatures this summer have only underscored climate campaigners' point

    The hottest day of this year was July 6th. While it may not be directly connected – in the sense that today's emissions will manifest their effects in the future – an amusing coincidence lies in the fact that it also marked the record day for commercial airplanes in flight.

    The people flying today are the one with enough money to do so. You will need more money to fly in the future, that's all. Maybe that means *you* personally won't be able to fly as often as before, but you will just be joining the situation of 90% of the world population today.

    There are only two options anyway:
    - either you consider that everyone has the same right to flight, in which case you limit flights by quantity (like 5 times in a lifetime; for everyone, including somalis)
    - or you consider some people have more rights than others to flight, in which case you limit flights by price

    Dumb people tend to prefer the latter, because they think "freedom". Until they realize it's freedom for 5% of the world population, and fuck the rest. Or until prices increase enough so that they are no longer in the top 5% able to fly whenever they want, but hey, they should have realized that sooner.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by magzteel ( 5013587 )

      While Greta Thunberg introduced flight-shaming to the public before the pandemic, record temperatures this summer have only underscored climate campaigners' point

      Is this when she travelled by boat? I wonder if people remember that for that stunt they flew different boat crews in and out of different ports to run this boat back and forth. It's just another scam.

  • by grasshoppa ( 657393 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:40AM (#63759110) Homepage

    If I'm understanding this correctly; all that money won't go towards reducing/eliminating emissions to any appreciable extent, but rather to "offset" their emissions. So...carbon credits.

    Weird, almost sounds like a scam. I'm sure someone smarter than I will be along shortly to explain how it's not though.

    • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:44AM (#63759134)

      Realistically, if that money doesn't result in carbon sequestration equivalent to the amount of carbon released into the environment by whatever activity resulted in the carbon tax... it's pointless.

      But closing the carbon loop isn't a bad idea - I don't really care if an airplane is dumping tons of carbon into the air if it's running on synthetic fuel made from captured carbon. Do THAT with the money, and it's all good.

      • They don't want synthetic fuel, they want cheap biofuel. They either believe in fairy tails, or at least pretend to believe in it, while ignoring that arable land biofuel can't scale and other sources of biofuel are more expensive.

      • Realistically, if that money doesn't result in carbon sequestration equivalent to the amount of carbon released into the environment by whatever activity resulted in the carbon tax... it's pointless.

        It's not just pointless, carbon offsets are a scam.

      • Nah⦠215 B for jet fuel per year, synth is 50% more expensive. So thatâ(TM)s 2.7 T until 2050. So thereâ(TM)s a tiny hole of 2.3 T. Theyâ(TM)re thinking of something stupid.
      • Realistically, if that money doesn't result in carbon sequestration equivalent to the amount of carbon released into the environment by whatever activity resulted in the carbon tax... it's pointless.

        Not at all. Even if carbon offsets don't sequester any carbon, airlines will be motivated to move to lower-emission aircraft and operations in order to reduce the money they waste on carbon offsets. Merely making carbon emission more expensive will motivate them to reduce carbon emissions. If the offsets directly accomplish carbon reduction beyond altering the incentives, that's a bonus.

    • A lot of money is going into hydrogen, which can work at net zero. All the money spent on sustainable airline fuel is indeed wasted money, because biofuel can't scale.

    • If I'm understanding this correctly; all that money won't go towards reducing/eliminating emissions to any appreciable extent, but rather to "offset" their emissions. So...carbon credits.

      You understand incorrectly. In fact it looks like you didn't even read TFS. The investment being discussed is for deploying SAF plants and green energy production to power said SAF plants.

      Weird, almost sounds like a scam. I'm sure someone smarter than I will be along shortly to explain how it's not though.

      By not reading TFS let alone TFA you've set the bar very low indeed.

    • Meh. It's useful regardless. If airlines are required to spend money on carbon offsets, that will motivate research into building and deploying aircraft that emit less carbon, so they can avoid wasting money on carbon offsets. This helps even if the carbon offsets don't actually sequester any carbon. All the better if the carbon offsets accomplish something directly, but even if they don't they'll motivate changes to reduce emissions.
  • by NoWayNoShapeNoForm ( 7060585 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:41AM (#63759116)

    That's more dirty liquid to launder than all the beer drunk in the world in a year.

    You do not launder beer. You can only rent it for a short duration, then you have to give it up. /sarcasm?

  • by hey ( 83763 )

    I like flying for a holiday but I can skip it. Lets ban fossil fuel planes and use trains.

  • by Viol8 ( 599362 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:42AM (#63759120) Homepage

    Start taxing jet-a1.

    There's zero reason why airlines should get their fuel tax free whereas any other transport operator has to pay tax on fuel.

    Yes I realise the Chicago Convention is a worldwide agreement but it was drawn up in 1944 FFS, its way past its use by date.

    • by crow ( 16139 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:59AM (#63759190) Homepage Journal

      No, tax crude oil. If we're going to get serious about carbon, then we need to tax it at the source, and then it's fair for all users. Existing fuel taxes are for things like road maintenance, so those would be left alone (or transition to different taxes; different discussion).

      Now this doesn't work because the oil market is global and taxes are national.

      • No, tax crude oil. If we're going to get serious about carbon, then we need to tax it at the source, and then it's fair for all users.

        If your goal is to target carbon emissions, why would you tax the production of a material that's used in pharmaceuticals, textiles, plastics, paint, fertilizer, pesticides, and a huge number of other fields that have uses for it beyond simply burning it as a fossil fuel?

        It's fine to tax the source when there's a 1:1 correlation between the source and an undesirable use case, but when the source material has a wide variety of uses, going after the source will have a wide variety of unintended side effects.

        • by ebunga ( 95613 )

          Because the oil and gas wells are major emitters of methane, which has a higher GWP than CO2.

      • No, tax crude oil. If we're going to get serious about carbon, then we need to tax it at the source, and then it's fair for all users.

        What are you trying to achieve? If your goal is to reduce emissions than taxing a pre-refined product is *not* the way to achieve that. You want to be fair, tax the refined fuel based on its effective emissions of use.

  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @10:47AM (#63759156) Journal
    So the industries decarbonizing airline travel are going to rake in 5 trillion in revenue! Get on the bandwagon at the ground floor! Its gonna take off!

    Anyway seems to be the usual FUD from fossil fuel companies.

    • Not really. The dollar is the same for the fossil fuel industry, there's no new money on the table, only new costs. \ The reality is SAF production is far more expensive than refining the by-product of motor vehicle fuel production. The $5tn investment in SAF plants is not something that will carry remotely the same margins as shoving kero through a merox unit and pumping it to an airport.

      Most fossil fuel companies are only investing in SAF thanks to government subsidies to do so.

  • Some days it seems every single Slashdot has a stupid typo in the first line.
    Don't you have some AI / LLM machine to help with editing?

    This adds costs to FLIGHTS, not FIGHTS.

  • The politicians and celebrities that fly all over the country (and world) in their private jets are causing way more of the problem.
    • The politicians and celebrities that fly all over the country (and world) in their private jets are causing way more of the problem.

      Don't forget that the environmentalists also fly private jets. Oops.

  • by Nkwe ( 604125 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @11:02AM (#63759202)
    On the surface it seems like a good idea to de-carbonize and make those whose consumer activities lead to releasing excess carbon pay for the damage that their lifestyles impart on the environment. It's particularly fun and easy to say that rich people should be the ones to pay for their environmental sins and that they shouldn't be flying around. The truth though is that we all are impacting the environment and we all should all be paying for our environmental sins. Ideally the things we do and the things we buy would be priced so that our consumption has the environmental impacted priced in - allowing us to make fair economic decisions and not "externalize" environmental costs to someone else. With this thinking it would mean that the carbon cost should not just be added to airline tickets, but also added at the gas pump, diesel pump, meat market, natural gas bill, electric bill, etc. Are we ready for this? Rich people and excessive consumers should pay their "share" of environmental costs, but so should the rest of us.
    • Productivity is still growing, so ideally you can divert 30 years of productivity growth to achieve net zero instead of increasing consumption. Without actually reducing consumption from current standards (perhaps flying excepted).

  • by DeplorableCodeMonkey ( 4828467 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @11:06AM (#63759220)

    I would suggest starting with a federal fuel tax that bare minimum triples the cost of fuel per gallon for the wealthy who fly privately. Make nothing about the jets tax deductible, even for corporations. Not even the employer taxes for the pilots.

    It's time the public say absolutely no change that incurs costs will be permissible until the 1% are leading from the front, bearing even tougher versions of every single cost imposed on the bottom 99%.

  • by Zak3056 ( 69287 ) on Friday August 11, 2023 @11:06AM (#63759224) Journal

    While Greta Thunberg introduced flight-shaming to the public before the pandemic

    Really? Because I seem to recall the sailboat thing as a greenwashing stunt that consumed far more resources / produced more pollution/CO2 than if she had simply flown commercial.

  • Good!

  • that we should tell the airlines to cover their own operating costs and - instead of bailing them out - invest in passenger train systems.

    • Ever compared a train ride vs. puddle jumper in Europe?

      "Take the crappier, slower, much more expensive train because benighted folk order you to."

      • or maybe because it doesn't dump tons of avgas into the atmosphere

      • Ever compared a train ride vs. puddle jumper in Europe?

        Yep, and I voluntarily take the train because despite being more expensive it is neither crappier nor slower for a very significant number of trips.

    • by JustNiz ( 692889 )

      I agree that airlines (or any other for-profit business such as banks) shouldn't ever be bailed out with tax payer money, but I dont think that's want's being discussed here. It's about airlines passing an extra cost of doing business onto passengers, which in my mind is perfectly fair. I mean where else are they going to get the money from?
      Let's hope that a high cost of flying conventional jet liners in a free market economy opens up a market opportunity for alternative more green travel options, such as e

  • This will just as usual be a giant waste of money, simply making everyone's life worse, except those hawking the schemes that the money pays for. The effect on climate will be, of course, zero. But it may help to make airline seats have even less legroom.

  • I came into this thread expecting complaints about evil airlines passing on costs to the poor passengers, as if either way it was just an accounting gimmick and the people would pay the costs through tickets anyway.

    Oh, there are declarations of evil here, but it's the common man, for having the temerity to take cheap flights, a product of capitalism, greedy, greedy capitalism wheedling costs out of bleeding edge tech so commoners can afford it.

    Some of these kibitzers even long wistfully for the days where c

  • what are the odds that the money will wind up as tangible c-level perqs and shareholder bonuses while the cleanup is theoretical and on-paper at best.
  • In a market economy the consumers pay the costs.

    • by EvilSS ( 557649 )

      In a market economy the consumers pay the costs.

      Yea I'm sitting here asking myself if this article's author just now figured out how companies work.

Some people manage by the book, even though they don't know who wrote the book or even what book.

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