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China

China's Nuclear Arsenal Is Growing Faster Than Expected, Pentagon Says (bloomberg.com) 196

China is expanding its nuclear weapons capabilities more rapidly than previously believed, the Pentagon warned in a report released on Wednesday. From a report: The People's Republic of China "likely intends to have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, exceeding the pace that the Department of Defense projected in 2020," the Pentagon said in the latest edition of an annual report to Congress. The report also cites China's construction of at least three silo fields, saying they will contain "hundreds" of new intercontinental ballistic missiles.

"The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces," the Defense Department said. That means China "has possibly already established a nascent nuclear triad" of delivery systems, it said, and is supporting its nuclear expansion "by increasing its capacity to produce and separate plutonium by constructing fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities." The Pentagon's new estimate that China is probably aiming for at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 ---including 700 "deliverable" ones by 2027 that could be mounted immediately on various missiles -- appears to be based on an evaluation of its production capacity.

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China's Nuclear Arsenal Is Growing Faster Than Expected, Pentagon Says

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  • by Dusanyu ( 675778 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @01:30PM (#61954607)
    the possibility of a Return to MADness as if it was not scary enough the first time around
    • the possibility of a Return to MADness as if it was not scary enough the first time around

      Does it really matter? How many nukes do you really need for MAD? China already has over 200 nukes which is enough to not only destroy the USA but likely the planet. Even in the best case scenerio and the USA could prevent half of them from launching, that's still enough to directly destroy the top 100 cities which hold over half the population of the USA and the fallout would likely kill the other half not to mention the rest of the world.

      This article says you realistically only need 100 nukes to destr

      • by spth ( 5126797 )

        That article says that 100 is a sufficient deterrent if those 100 are strategic missiles aimed at enemy population centers.

        The article explicitly states this, and also explicitly states that it assumes 100% of launched those missiles will hit their targets.

        If your enemy has missile defenses, or you are aiming to destroy most of the enemies capabilities by doing a first strike yourself, you'll need more.

        If your aim is to "destroy the world" you'll need much more, even if by "destroy the world" you only mean

        • That article says that 100 is a sufficient deterrent if those 100 are strategic missiles aimed at enemy population centers.

          Alas, the article is just speculation. There is no evidence that 100 is the magic number for deterrent. North Korea seems to have managed with, at most, a handful. And there is no evidence that "aimed at population centers" matters a hill of beans either. The USA seems to consider "aimed at population centers" to be a deterrent, but that's not the same as "evidence" to a deterrent e

      • None of these are pissing contests any more.

        The high end of AAA can now defend against nuclear including ICBMs. The percentages are not great, but they are improving. You get 50% for S500 and the next generation of Iron Dome. That alone, has forced all major powers to upgrade their deterrent. The ones that don't will be able to threaten with nuking only other third world countries.

        While at it, the article (same as all other articles on the subject) fail to mention WHERE exactly are the majority of the

      • There's been over 500 atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, mostly over the first couple decades of weapons development. 200, all aimed at population centers, could do considerable damage, maybe even trigger a few months of nuclear winter, but you'd need a lot more for anything resembling 'destroy the world'.
    • Between Putin and Xi, honestly, I'd trust Putin more.

    • by khchung ( 462899 )

      the possibility of a Return to MADness as if it was not scary enough the first time around

      Wow, China have like 1/10th the number of nukes as America did, and they might get to 1/5th in the next decade? How scary!

      Perhaps you should think about why the summary didn't state the most important context, that the US had like 6,000 nuclear warheads in stock? Maybe that would make China's figure so much less scary?

    • Tensions are not as bad as at the height of the Cold War, but the U.S. and Russia still have thousands of warheads that they could use against each other.

      I don't know why many people think that era is all behind us.

      We can't "return to MADness" if we never left it.

    • Actually, you mean a return to pre-MAD. MAD allowed both America and Soviets the ability to drop s,enough a Mutually Assured Destruction.
  • Maybe.. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by BytePusher ( 209961 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @01:31PM (#61954613) Homepage
    Win-win for the Pentagon. They can get more funding for more nukes and middle defense and space weapons, so China will build more nukes, middle defense and space weapons. This the the Cold War playbook, but this time around China has all the manufacturing power and the US has none. Guess who'll come out on top this time?
    • Re:Maybe.. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by tekram ( 8023518 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @01:37PM (#61954637)
      Nuclear arsenal manufacturing has nothing to do with civilian manufacturers. The US is still by far the largest arms producer and purveyor in the world.
    • Guess who'll come out on top this time?

      Blah, blah, blah... Well if “sensible” people insist China doesn’t make those parts then we’ll outsource them to India right?

    • As voracious as the American Military industrial Complex is, China's isn't satisfied with just arms and has branched out into telecom and all the other "manufacturing power" you mention. i think Freud said that a totalitarian state must turn to expansion, once its internal threats have been vanquished. So I guess Taiwan is on the menu.
    • The most worrying thing is that USA often loses to China/Russia in simulated military conflicts.

      The once held notion that the USA will always be on the top is no longer assured these days.

      In fact, the USA is playing catchup in key economic/military fields, sad!

      • by amorsen ( 7485 )

        The most worrying thing is that USA often loses to China/Russia in simulated military conflicts.

        That really needs a citation. It sounds remarkably unlikely that a military larger than the other 4 in the top 5 put together would get defeated often in simulations

      • America has specialized in asymmetric warfare. So bombing Iraq into the stone age, while they actually had at least in the first Iraq war similar fighters than USA or Europe, was easy.

        While the USA probably can defend themselves nicely, I doubt they would have any chance invading either Russia or China.

        The air superiority of the US only works via AWACS like planes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        I guess flight altitude of an AWACS is about 40,000 - 45,000 feet. A Russian fighter jet: flies 4 times as high

        • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

          I guess flight altitude of an AWACS is about 40,000 - 45,000 feet. A Russian fighter jet: flies 4 times as high. Yes: 4 times

          You think Russian fighters fly at 160 to 190 thousand feet? You're on hallucinogens.

          Workhorse Russian fighter is the Su-35 [wikipedia.org]. It has a 59,000 foot ceiling. https://www.19fortyfive.com/20... [19fortyfive.com]

          • Yes, then find another one. Lol.
            The highest flying fighters fly 60km high. Up to you to convert it into feet.
            Must be around 120,000 feet.

            And you can see the videos about that on youtube.

            Google "Russian fighter stratosphere flight" - they are wearing space suits in those fighters.

            • Yes, then find another one. Lol. The highest flying fighters fly 60km high.

              LOL! No, they don't. That would be more than twice as high as the record set by SR-71 for sustained flight (and SR-71 is not a fighter). Not even close.

              Up to you to convert it into feet. Must be around 120,000 feet. And you can see the videos about that on youtube. Google "Russian fighter stratosphere flight" - they are wearing space suits in those fighters.

              Sure, good idea. The results of the google say that the MiG-29 [wikipedia.org] ("Fulcrum") can takes flights into the stratosphere (defined as 7 to 20 km, depending on latitude and season). Service ceiling for the MiG-29 is 18,000 m (59,000 ft), which is definitely into the stratosphere at mid-latitudes. One [migflug.com] site says that you can get up to 23 km in a MiG-29. How do you

    • by khchung ( 462899 )

      Win-win for the Pentagon.

      Of course. That's why you will see these Russia/China scare "reports" coming out every year when Congress make budget. This is tried and true tactic to keep military spending high.

  • by Papaspud ( 2562773 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @02:13PM (#61954793)
    that will show them who are the ones who mean business!!! Send our new 4 star admiral Levine, they will cower like dogs.
  • It's ok (Score:4, Interesting)

    by presearch ( 214913 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @02:26PM (#61954841)

    It's ok. If the Idiot gets back into office, he will quickly act on his primary motivation, revenge,
    and his secondary motivation, being viewed as the origin of all things.

    Within two months, he will want to show the world that neither Putin or Xi push him around.
    He will board AF1, announce he has ordered several nuclear strikes, then watch it happen.

    China will get to use those shiny new bombs, and that will be that.
    But the name Trump will be the last thing on everyone's mind before the big flash.

    Didn't say it was a good plan.

    • How the fuck did this paranoid bullshit make it to +3?

      The man was a buffoon, stop attributing him to every possible bad thing that has ever occurred or will occur or claiming there's grand plans.

      Good god this site sometimes.

  • You already have 10 times the nukes needed to kill everyone on the planet. You could set them off in you own country and "win" by killing everyone.
    So exactly how does having 20 times the nukes needed to kill everyone increase security ?
  • by oumuamua ( 6173784 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @02:43PM (#61954911)
    after this:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
    and this is not disparaging Gen Milley but the situation that made him feel it was necessary.
    Of course the US needs to respond to this Chinese buildup with a massive investment in EDUCATION:
    https://www.salon.com/2021/10/... [salon.com]
  • by Berkyjay ( 1225604 ) on Wednesday November 03, 2021 @05:03PM (#61955387)

    To destroy the world.

  • Time to watch Dr Strangelove again. Do you think they'll make a reboot but with China this time? Who'd be the best actor to play the rabidly insane Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper? Sterling Hayden's performance would be hard to follow.
    • Pssssht! Don't give them ideas. The way remakes/reboots/sequels are done these days, more often than not it's better to leave the nostalgia linger.

      However, now that I ponder on the subject matter of Dr. Strangelove and how it would be remade today, I think that the woke crowd will steer clear of this one all on their own accord. Hell, they probably wouldn't even get past the opening sequence.

  • 10 or 1000 nukes what is the difference? War with China is not an option anyway.

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