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China

China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day (bloomberg.com) 133

Nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week, according to estimates from the government's top health authority, making the country's outbreak by far the world's largest. From a report: As many as 248 million people, or nearly 18% of the population, likely contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December, according to minutes from an internal meeting of China's National Health Commission held on Wednesday, confirmed with people involved in the discussions. If accurate, the infection rate would dwarf the previous daily record of about 4 million, set in January 2022.
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China Estimates Covid Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People a Day

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  • by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @02:47PM (#63153434)

    time to shutdown again. Apple it's time to get out

  • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @02:52PM (#63153440)

    Now that China is letting nature take its course, the expected results are coming to light. Thousands of people are dying each day from covid, and crematoriums can't keep up [cnn.com] with the bodies which keep coming in.

    However, taking a cue from several U.S. states who shifted the goalposts, China is now saying only if the person died directly from covid [nytimes.com] is that considered a covid death. If there were any other symptoms or conditions, it's not counted as a covid death. Which is why China is now saying only a few dozen people are dying each day from covid.

    Pretty neat, huh? Let the bodies pile up while telling everyone there's nothing going on.

    • It's this really true? Could be that the staff at the crematoriums just had to stay home because they got infected.
      The isolation measures often caused more issues than the virus in Omicron outbreaks.
      • No. Or at least, parent left out a critical context, in his bad-faith comment. Truth is, china doesn't even have many crematoriums, so a few deaths would overload the ones they do have.
        • by jhoegl ( 638955 )
          They also do not have the thing that could save a ton of lives, a viable vaccine with a high efficacy percentile.
      • It's this really true? Could be that the staff at the crematoriums just had to stay home because they got infected.
        The isolation measures often caused more issues than the virus in Omicron outbreaks.

        It's a CNN article, they don't care about accuracy or context only pushing buttons. The media is driven almost entirely by worthless anecdotes.

        A third of over 80s in China are unvaccinated despite having had ample opportunity to do so. There is likely to be a lot (in absolute terms) of very old people dying a little earlier than would otherwise be the case.

        About the only thing we can really count on is for the Chinese dictatorship to lie thru its teeth.

    • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @03:26PM (#63153516)
      It's literally impossible to get this exactly right. When somebody with several problems dies, there's no to say which one "really" killed them, especially since they might have overcome each of the things individually.

      Of course, it is possible to be unreasonable in either direction.

      Excess mortality [nature.com] is the closest we will get to the truth, though even that is not perfect.

      • by Tom ( 822 )

        It's literally impossible to get this exactly right. When somebody with several problems dies, there's no to say which one "really" killed them, especially since they might have overcome each of the things individually.

        Only if you see the world as simple, linear and single-causal.

        The truth is right there: The person suffered from multiple problems and succumbed to the combination of them.

        Just like you can survive being stabbed, and you can survive being outside in the cold for an hour, but you are unlikely to survive being stabbed and then being left to bleed out. Did the stabbing kill you? Or the bleeding? Does it make sense to consider them as if they were independent?

    • And that's how a covid death should always have been classified, died directly of covid. Previously they classified a covid death already if the person had tested positive, even though it died of a already existing heartdisease, hell, I've even seen somebody classified covid death while he was run over by a big truck and had every bone broken and his skull, but still lived at arrival at the hospital, but tested positive and died there only 2 hours after arrival. We've been lied to a lot of times in regard t
      • by skam240 ( 789197 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @06:57PM (#63153868)

        "Lied to". Only if you're a paranoid. Early on when we were inventing policy to handle this problem we haven't had for over a century we counted everyone who had it regardless but we pretty quickly saw that wasn't a good way to do things and switch to if it was a contributing factor https://www.aamc.org/news-insi... [aamc.org] . Believe it or not that doesn't mean you were lied to, it just means we started with a shitty system in the early panicky days and then figured out something better.

        It's kind of pathetic how stupid this culture war has gotten that it leaves people seeing conspiracy behind every little thing. Large bodies of people won't even accept near universal medical consensus "cause da intranet told mes vaccines was bad"

      • by Petersko ( 564140 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @07:59PM (#63153954)

        Seems too simplistic. If I know you to be clumsy, I push you on a stair case, and you fall to your death, I might have trouble convincing a jury you died because of your established inability to maintain your balance.

        The test probably should be, had I not pushed you, would you still be alive? And the same logic would apply to Covid. Had the person not had Covid, would they have survived the same event/timeframe?

    • > China is now saying only if the person died directly from covid is that considered a covid death.
      People that are terminally ill because of covid get executed, so that they do not add to the covid death count...
    • Thousands of people are dying each day from covid,

      Oh, how many times did I read China was lying about covid deaths last 2 years? If there is a surge of deaths now, does it mean they were previously not lying?

      Pretty neat, huh? Let the bodies pile up while telling everyone there's nothing going on.

      So China doesn't communicate an accurate number of deaths but if it was accurate people would be scared and ask for what? Lockdown?

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Now that China is letting nature take its course, the expected results are coming to light. Thousands of people are dying each day from covid, and crematoriums can't keep up [cnn.com] with the bodies which keep coming in.

      However, taking a cue from several U.S. states who shifted the goalposts, China is now saying only if the person died directly from covid [nytimes.com] is that considered a covid death. If there were any other symptoms or conditions, it's not counted as a covid death. Which is why China is now saying only a few dozen people are dying each day from covid.

      Pretty neat, huh? Let the bodies pile up while telling everyone there's nothing going on.

      TBF, Florida copied China first by having the government issue false statistics and persecuting anyone daring to point out otherwise.

    • I have my doubts about this. It's only been two weeks since they gave up on zero covid. I find it hard to believe that new enormous numbers of people have already died as a result.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday December 23, 2022 @02:53PM (#63153446)

    One thing to remember is that in China, The idea of "saving face" is really important because it's considered absolutely critical for your survival to have a good social reputation; So as a result they will blatantly lie about the numbers because they don't want to be seen as the middle manager of a district that failed the CCP.

      As a result you should consider these numbers far higher, and more of a big deal. If you go online and follow the correct twitter accounts for example you will find ones that track the number of cars going into crematoriums and tracking deaths by counting traffic patterns outside the ones that are c19 deaths only, and its far bigger than the west is being told because China is also taking this opportunity to clean house of citizens it also considers undesirable, such as the elderly or disabled.

    Go look for yourself.

  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @02:57PM (#63153454)
    To the Chinese government, that’s simply acceptable losses. On a plot of population vs. time, wont even register as a blip. They’ll just suppress grumbling on the internet, no elections where voters can express their discontent. The citizenry can always protest hahaha who are we kidding this is China. State media has already pivoted to the message “this is just another flu, move along citizen”.

    They’ll quietly burn/bury 1.5 million corpses, and pretend it never happened.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      China has 1.42B people. With a death rate of 7.683/1000 that's ~11M people a year dying in any given year.
      If 10% of those are COVID that aligns with the western world. Of all the US deaths in 2020/2021 only 10% were COVID. 90% were from other causes like heart disease, cancer, etc.

      https://www.macrotrends.net/co... [macrotrends.net]

      • Unfortunately chinese governments have the habit of mass killing [wikipedia.org] their people now and then. They will probably make no exception this time. What a stupid, insulse, criminal way of managing a country.
    • Even if 1.5 million people will die from covid it will still be less in percentage points than US. According to worldometer data, which I am sure under estimates the deaths, 1,115,748 people died in US so far. With population of china being 4.32 times that of the US, they would have to loose over 4million people, almost 5 mil to even get close to the US numbers.
      So US government did not do much better at protecting people from covid. Probably it can't be blamed only on government.
      What baffles me is why Chi
      • But current variants aren't quite as deadly. If China had adopted the attitude of much of the US from the start in dealing with the original strain, their numbers would have been much worse, and probably classified even more top hush than the current numbers. Apples and Oranges.

      • They didnt focus on vaccination because their emperor told them to focus on something else. It’s really that simple. Xi made the command decision to focus on containment more than vaccination. He also decided to ban western vaccines and only allow lower tech home grown shots, which are 60% effective rather than 90+% for the mRNA ones. Very consistent given his views of the world. Their current state is a natural result of top-down government.

        They’ll get through it. 1.5 million or even 10.5 m
        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Friday December 23, 2022 @10:30PM (#63154116) Homepage Journal

          No need to revise history here. They pushed vaccines hard, but take up was not great. Many Chinese people don't like to take medicine unless they really have to.

          As for Western vaccines, think about the reaction in the US if people had been offered Chinese vaccines. The Chinese ones ended up being about as good as the non-mRNA Western ones like AstraZenica, although with fewer side effects. There were some poor numbers early on, because China gave vaccines to places like Brazil that were getting ravaged.

          The CCP banked on better vaccine uptake and that they could control the virus better than it turned out to be possible to do. When the protests started they knew they had to change course and could blame any deaths on the protestors demanding them.

          • They pushed vaccines hard, but take up was not great.

            They had no problem locking people in their homes indefinitely, but getting them to take a simple shot three times was too hard?

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              Medicine when you are not ill is a hard sell. Quarantining people who tested ill is not.

              There's also a difference between what the CCP does and what local government does. The CCP has devolved a lot of power and decision making, as you would expect. Local government taking things too far is a local issue. Reports from people living in places like Shenzhen that are quite progressive and liberal (relatively) paint a much better picture.

    • The citizenry can always protest hahaha who are we kidding this is China.

      Zero covid policy stopped literally because people protested . Also I bet western countries will still stay forever on the podium regarding covid deaths (using deaths per capita obviously).

    • "If, on the Great Chinese Famine, approximately 23 million of a population of 650 million people died, the percentage would be 3.5%"

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      The Chinese government, good socialists that they were, considered that an acceptable loss rate.

      Also, "Not all deaths during the Great Leap were from starvation. Frank Dikötter, in his book Mao's Great Famine, estimates that at least 2.5 million people were beaten or tortured to death and one million to three million committed suicide."

      Some

  • Same as every other true believer that ever got any real power. Unfortunately, they will probably not get him that "window high-up experience" that cretin richly deserves.

  • Previous record is 4M/d. If the 37M/d overestimates by a whole order of magnitude, that 3.7M/d is still tragic.
  • You reap what you sow. You may not understand it, But all seeds are not equal.
  • China renamed its Zero-COVID policy to 37M-COVID.

  • Omicron BF.7 (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Dan East ( 318230 )

    Thanks to the rest of the world being infected first, China is dealing with Omicron subvariant BF.7, which has a much, much lower mortality rate than all the variants prior to Delta.

    • > China is dealing with Omicron subvariant BF.7
      So far... After a few months of a couple million infections per day, we shall see...

  • Thank fuck that Victoria, WA, and Queensland kept the lockdowns going until enough people got double vaccinated. It would be a fucking bloodbath if we didn't.

    Fuck anyone who said that lockdowns don't work.
  • This ain't 2020 no more Slashdot. The CCP can eat their words that mRNA propaganda they were spreading to Chinese citizens and around the world was false. Hopefully China fails like the soviet union did.

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