Chip Shortages Loom Over Black Friday (bloomberg.com) 65
Black Friday, Cyber Monday and likely the end-of-the year holiday shopping season all have a more prosaic tinge to them this year. Those lusting after electronic gadgets -- and even cars -- have learned to settle more for what they can get than what they want. The reason, of course: shortages of electronic components. From a report: Everyone has a story like my dentist, who told me that he'd given up trying to buy a new Audi after his car was totaled in an accident. The car he'd wanted to replace it with wasn't available, and even if it was, the dealers were adding $5,000 to the sticker price of new vehicles, he told me. He settled for a used model. Meanwhile at home, I'm several months into the wait for a docking station for my wife's work laptop.
The consensus from the industry executives I speak to as a chip reporter is that at some point, most likely toward the middle of 2022, supply and demand will come into balance. Why has it taken so long? Building chip plants is very hard and very slow. Even if every chipmaker in the world started building a plant this time last year in response to rising demand, that effort would likely not have resulted in the manufacture of a single chip in time for Black Friday. It simply costs too much and takes too long to build manufacturing infrastructure, and then when you do, it takes three months for silicon to be made into the brains of your iPhone, or the sensor for your SUV that stops you from closing the tailgate on your head. Earlier this year Advanced Micro Devices Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su told Bloomberg's Emily Chang that the chip shortage wasn't a catastrophe and that the industry, which has seen boom and bust cycles before, would adjust output soon enough.
The consensus from the industry executives I speak to as a chip reporter is that at some point, most likely toward the middle of 2022, supply and demand will come into balance. Why has it taken so long? Building chip plants is very hard and very slow. Even if every chipmaker in the world started building a plant this time last year in response to rising demand, that effort would likely not have resulted in the manufacture of a single chip in time for Black Friday. It simply costs too much and takes too long to build manufacturing infrastructure, and then when you do, it takes three months for silicon to be made into the brains of your iPhone, or the sensor for your SUV that stops you from closing the tailgate on your head. Earlier this year Advanced Micro Devices Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su told Bloomberg's Emily Chang that the chip shortage wasn't a catastrophe and that the industry, which has seen boom and bust cycles before, would adjust output soon enough.
How about this for an idea. (Score:5, Insightful)
Don't buy anything. Save money, stop buying useless gadgets you will throw away in a year and stop suckling at the teat of consumerism.
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Don't buy anything. Save money, stop buying useless gadgets you will throw away in a year and stop suckling at the teat of consumerism.
The example from TFS isn't exactly useless gadgets. Does the dentist need an Audi? Probably not. Does he need a car after the previous one was totaled out? Probably.
Re:How about this for an idea. (Score:4, Insightful)
Does the dentist need an Audi? Probably not.
Did he have an accident specifically for Black Friday? The example you used may not have had much to do with it, but the article very much is written with a very specific example of screwed up consumerism in mind. Hint: If you didn't need it before black friday, you probably will be alright not getting it on black friday.
Re:How about this for an idea. (Score:4)
Don't buy anything. Save money, stop buying useless gadgets you will throw away in a year and stop suckling at the teat of consumerism.
This is the time of the year when people look for deals to replace broken appliances. Getting a new microwave or replacing a malfunctioning refrigerator isn't exactly consumerism (except for the crazy lunatics who think we should live off like people before the industrial revolution.)
Getting a new home laptop to replace the old one that is already malfunctioning so that the kids can do their homework is another one (and no, not everything can be fixed by installing Linux.)
Home renovation is a big one also at this time of the year, but sure, let's not repair the gutters so that we can be one with nature and punch evil consumerism in the balls.
Reasons why people buy shit are complex, and it is dumb to pretend consumer spending is mostly mindless consumerism. /growup.
PS. That people voted the OP "insightful" is pretty scary and juvenile.
If you've been waiting a few months (Score:3)
Sometimes you need to buy a new thing, of course.
You said "this is the time of year people wait ..." and you're right about that. People say "we'll get a new refrigerator at the end of November", you're right. My brother is one of those people, he "needs" a new refrigerator but hasn't gotten one for months.
The reason he can wait several months is because what's broken are the bins inside the door. The adjustable shelves that attach to the door. If the compressor had gone out, he wouldn't have waited a few
Re:If you've been waiting a few months (Score:5, Interesting)
Sometimes, something is totally broken and beyond repair. Also, people in the US spend on average ten times as much as people in many other countries. 90% of what we "need", people in Mexico would never buy. They would see it as as ridiculous waste.
I come from a country poorer than Mexico and many people in my country would (wrongly) come to the same "ridiculous waste" conclusion when it comes to Mexican internal spending.
A lot of the reasons why we in the US spend more than other countries is because of higher wages (and thus higher COLs) combined with ineffective systems (think our private health care system that is free from price controls compared to, say, Japan's or Germany's health care system.)
The reason why people wait for this time of the year is because of bargains. That is, an attempt to save money. I always to stretch the use of appliances until the moment I can buy something with a bargain.
For example, about 6 years ago, we bought our washer and dryer. We had none at the time, and we didn't have the cash flow at the time to buy one. So we rented a combo for several months until we got an Xmas deal.
We got a significant discount in addition to a promo with a store HD card that allowed us to pay for it for 24 months without interest. So instead of paying, say $2K up front (or pay a 12% interest on a loan, or buy a subpar model, or keep using coin laundries), we used the opportunity to buy a good, solid combo of washer and drier that will last for many years (with proper care), with a 25% discount and with small monthly payments with ZERO interest.
We resolved an actual problem (avoid using coin laundries in a risky area), we saved money (25% off the price tag) and without affecting our cash flow (without incurring interest.)
Just now we used a holidays deal to get a new laptop to replace the one we had (which is already broken around the display) with a 20% discount.
I could have tried to fix the laptop myself (I actually did, with duct tape to keep the display in place) or keep using the coin laundry back then. Both of these choices would make sense in my poor country of origin, but that'd be quite stupid and inefficient here.
The ability to spend in things and void these "shortcuts" is not frivolous. It is intelligent investment (when the resources and opportunities are available.)
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It's not like the two are mutually exclusive. Some things people buy are, in fact, useless toys (or just junk), and some are critically necessary items to get on with life. And every imaginable shade of gray in between.
I suspect that if we cut back on the former, there would be less of a chip shortage on the latter.
But we both know which people will clamor for more loudly.
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It's not like the two are mutually exclusive. Some things people buy are, in fact, useless toys (or just junk), and some are critically necessary items to get on with life. And every imaginable shade of gray in between.
I suspect that if we cut back on the former, there would be less of a chip shortage on the latter.
But we both know which people will clamor for more loudly.
The idea that some people have that the only things we spend money on are things that prevent our death through exposure or starvation is just plain weird.
We could do all of that living in mud huts, foraging for food, and all dead by 30.
Because from a purist perspective, all aspects of civilization anything other than what humanity evolved to be, is pointless consumerism.
I could skip the refrigerator and bury food in a cold cellar, I could arrange my life so I only walked placed, I would wear furs a
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Well, I was walking through best buy recently, though "walking" is more like shimmying between the towers of brand new giant screen TV bo
Bargains can be had any time - your examples fail (Score:3)
Bargains can be had any time so most who lurk for Black Friday "deals" are in fact doing it wrong whatever their motivation.
When I look for deals I do not look for them where everyone else is COMPETING for the same products. I research methodically, buy wisely, and save shitloads of money. Home renovation does not typically NEED to be done at this time of year. That's a custom not a requirement. Self and wife renovated three homes and the wise strategy is work and buy supplies methodically over time. Noth
Re: How about this for an idea. (Score:2)
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A giant part of the economy is centered around Christmas gifts. They are a lot of companies that run at a loss all year, and make an annual profit, due to 1 month of sales.
There is a culture, and history around gift giving during the holidays. While in the past, it was much more subdue where Kids mostly got their gifts, for the year. Or perhaps with a sweetheart. However it has grown to be something that is expected, Everyone in your family will need to get gifts, make sure you give something to your of
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Even my Lincoln Logs [nbcnews.com]?
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Ditto. I got tired of buying stuff that I don't use. I only buy when I need them badly. Same for the (new/lat)est technologies. They're expensive and buggy so I avoid them and buy older and cheaper models as long as they are working and useful to me.
Inflation would like a word. (Score:2)
At least if you're buying superfluous shit, it's you burning the money instead of the Fed.
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Agreed. It's not a deal no matter how cheap it is, if you don't really need it.
No deal (Score:5, Informative)
Been keeping an eye on the deal sites and a few keywords today. There's nothing. The few things that are on sale have been that price or cheaper earlier in the year anyway.
And products are available. (Score:5, Insightful)
Black Friday is dead. And corporatism killed it, not some supply shortage.
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Black Friday is dead.
I think with all the riots in the past year people got their pent up aggression out of their system early, no need to wait for black friday to go punch someone over a discounted TV.
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Black Friday is dead.
I think with all the riots in the past year people got their pent up aggression out of their system early, no need to wait for black friday to go punch someone over a discounted TV.
Spike in smash and grab recently. [google.com] More people who just couldn't wait.
Yea, for several yeas now. (Score:3)
It's mostly just been retailers trying to clear stock of shit no one wants. I did buy some, and it's mostly stuff I've been waiting on and need, but definitely didn't buy a lot more because the savings is pretty much gone and I'm seeing a lot of "sales" which are just their regular prices at this point.
Even subscriptions, which is where I've been getting the best Black Friday deals for several years are mostly gone. Only the VPN service I use was their normal good shit so I bought 3 more years just to sup
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Well, I did get a deal from Amazon prime this year. I got Showtime for $1 a month for the next two months. I'll likely cancel after that, but it was a great savings compared to if I had signed up months prior for the exact same service.
In the mean time, I can enjoy the new Dexter series and we also started to check out this Ray Donovan show. Goes for 7 seasons, so it must have something going for it.
I would almost be happy if showtime does have enough content that I keep the subscription, but we shall see.
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It's mostly just been retailers trying to clear stock of shit no one wants.
It's just retailers trying to look like they're offering a deal. If they were actually trying to clear stock they would mark it down enough to make it a good deal, and they aren't doing that. Instead they jack up the prices before the "sale" and then mark them down to where they were before, or maybe a few dollars cheaper.
It's a cynical ploy to take advantage of underinformed consumers, period the end. The days when black friday sales were real are long over.
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Black Fridays and Cyber Mondays are still alive it seems. Look at Apple and others. :O
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Black Friday is dead. And corporatism killed it, not some supply shortage.
How ironic, given that corporatism started it, too.
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That's nothing (Score:3)
In the UK there is no chips supply at all, and I don't mean the gadgety ones but the ones one can eat, that's wayyyy worse!
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Maybe you can beg some potatoes off the Irish.
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I haven't checked out Audi, but the local BMW dealer has some models in stock and lots more in transit. People are just impatient or inflexible.
Sure - because your experience is universal and extrapolates not only to other areas of your own country, but to other countries as well, and to products other than the ones you've been shopping for.
/sarc
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I haven't checked out Audi, but the local BMW dealer has some models in stock and lots more in transit. People are just impatient or inflexible.
Sure - because your experience is universal and extrapolates not only to other areas of your own country, but to other countries as well, and to products other than the ones you've been shopping for.
/sarc
Perhaps his experience is not Universal. But when we bought my wife's new Jeep just a couple months ago, we had no particular issue in finding and buying what she wanted. And it's chock full of the latest electronic geegaws. And people were whining about chip shortages back then as well.
The only thing we noticed was that her trade-in was remarkably high. And the price definitely didn't have anything added to it - we knew what they went for from before the dreaded chip shortage. And if they had added 5K w
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My friends in India, Denmark, Norway, Ireland, UK, and South Africa haven't mentioned anything. Nor people in Hawaii, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, or Georgia. The media is making a huge deal, but it's overblown. The biggest shortage is among truck drivers, but only because demand is ridiculously high.
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That, and most truck drivers aren't really paid well enough for most people to want to bother. Especially since it's a dying industry. We'll likely have self driving semis in 10 years, if not sooner.
There are toys aplenty (Score:2)
This is a first world problem not some tragedy.
Can't get a GPU? Buy a prebuilt or notebook or preorder a Steam Deck or all the above.
New cars are all luxury purchases unless you're a fleet buyer. Used being expensive means pay what the market will bear and be less picky. A car is only a car.
If it's not a survival item you don't need it. Learn to hunt bargains and enjoy the chase. We'll have another recession sooner or later and you can score then too (l outfitted my home machine shop last time).
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Counterpoint to that is some rather essential items are in short supply. In the summer my oven died. It was 19 years old, and the repair parts were no longer available. So a new oven was needed, but that was also in short supply. I did find one and it "only" took two weeks to arrive. But I did not get exactly what I wanted as that was at least another month out.
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3D print ones "repair parts".
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3D print ones "repair parts".
How does that work for control panels, electronics or heating elements?
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And which 3D printer does heating elements for electric ovens?
And which 3D printer does replacement control boards?
Now 3D printing could have replaced the part of the washing machine that broke shortly after the oven, but that repair part was still available.
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This is a first world problem not some tragedy.
Can't get a GPU? Buy a prebuilt or notebook or preorder a Steam Deck or all the above. New cars are all luxury purchases unless you're a fleet buyer. Used being expensive means pay what the market will bear and be less picky. A car is only a car. If it's not a survival item you don't need it. Learn to hunt bargains and enjoy the chase. We'll have another recession sooner or later and you can score then too (l outfitted my home machine shop last time).
I've always tended to buy when the price was best. And I try to plan for that as well.
I'm a slut for home machine shops, what didya get?
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Um, sorry but for the average American, the Car is a survival item. For a small portion, it's their fucking home. You insensitive clod.
One Cent Sale (Score:5, Interesting)
Not even kidding, I had to take a screenshot. I put a Ryzen in my AMZN cart to see if there would be a deal. It's a single cent cheaper for Discount Friday.
I get why, it just seems funny to have to do this to get in on whatever sales promo AMZN is running.
Silver lining (Score:2)
Don't car companies know (Score:2)
how to build purely mechanical cars?
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People don’t want to buy a car that doesn’t use any chips in them.
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No. They don't. Because all the components the current car is made of are as efficient and cheap as they can possibly make them.
So that means lots of chips, from the engines to the door controls.
Making a 'purely mechanical car' at this point would be a lot more expensive than just mass producing cheap shit.
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how to build purely mechanical cars?
Not since the very early 1900's.
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Yes, they probably do. But there would be no point, as they would be illegal in every major market. You can't meet emissions regulations without fuel injection, you can't meet safety regulations without ABS, the list goes on.
Everyone has a story? (Score:2)
Everyone relates to not being able to obtain exactly the $65,000 car they want
and having to settle for...(ew)...used??? That's such a heartbreaking tragedy.
I hope he can find it within himself to soldier on.
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Everyone relates to not being able to obtain exactly the $65,000 car they want and having to settle for...(ew)...used??? That's such a heartbreaking tragedy. I hope he can find it within himself to soldier on.
Apparently he's in counseling and strong antidepressants now after being put on a suicide watch.
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Apparently he's in counseling and strong antidepressants now after being put on a suicide watch.
Well of course! Don’t you realize the number of chips it takes to go into those meds? It’s depressing, but that’s why we have such a shortage. /s
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Apparently he's in counseling and strong antidepressants now after being put on a suicide watch.
Well of course! Don’t you realize the number of chips it takes to go into those meds? It’s depressing, but that’s why we have such a shortage. /s
Well played sir! Damn well played! 8^)
Obligatory Cracked video. (Score:2)
If People Who Sell Stuff Were Honest About Black Friday - Honest Ads
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Black Friday 2021 (Score:1)
Retailer: Get this product at MSRP!
Customer: Ooooh a deal!
Not sure my car can last until mid-2022 (Score:2)
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A couple months ago my mechanic said there's an oil leak that will cost thousands to repair.
Get a better mechanic. Where is the leak?
Recently my check engine light came on and my mechanic said the transmission is dying.
So get it rebuilt.
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Get a better mechanic. Where is the leak?
He said the rear main seal is leaking, and the oil pan needs to be replaced, and the timing belt also needs to be replaced because it has oil leaking onto it.
So get it rebuilt.
From what I've heard, that will also cost thousands.
Not worried (Score:2)
I've a freezer full of chips that'll see me into the new year.