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Europe's Economic Outlook Worsens as High Prices Plague Consumer Spending (apnews.com) 105

The European Union has lowered its forecast for economic growth this year and next, saying inflation is taking a heavy toll on people's willingness to spend in shops -- while higher interest rates are sharply restricting the credit needed for investment and purchases. From a report: The revised forecast Monday from the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, comes as fears of recession grow and as the European Central Bank faces a key decision this week on whether to keep raising rates, which are aimed at getting inflation under control. The 20 countries that use the euro currency are expected to see growth of 0.8% this year instead of 1.1% projected in the spring forecast, the commission said. For next year, growth expectations were lowered to 1.3% from 1.6%. For the broader 27-country EU, the forecast also was lowered to 0.8% from 1% this year and to 1.4% from 1.7% next year.

"Weakness in domestic demand, in particular consumption, shows that high and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected," a commission statement said. EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said at a news conference that "further weakening in the coming months" was foreseen as the economy faces "multiple headwinds." One source of uncertainty is how far the ECB will go on interest rates -- more expensive credit restrains economic growth in some areas such as real estate, but if higher rates succeed in lowering inflation, that would boost consumer spending power.

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Europe's Economic Outlook Worsens as High Prices Plague Consumer Spending

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  • You don't say? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Monday September 11, 2023 @03:15PM (#63840078)

    Really? High inflation and no compensation in wages to speak of makes people spend just enough money to get by because they can't afford jack shit anymore?

    And high interest rates tell them they shouldn't spend more than they have to?

    Boy, who could have predicted that?

    Seriously, folks, in what semester in that Business Administration course is the mandatory lobotomy? The question really is no longer if it happens, only when.

    • The bottom-line question is what to do with interest rates, and what you said doesn't answer that question. More specifically, how to have low interest rates and low inflation, both, at the same time, sustainably. Having either / or is easy.
      • More specifically, how to have low interest rates and low inflation, both, at the same time, sustainably. Having either / or is easy.

        How is 2023 different from 2019. Therein lies your answer.

        • by jbengt ( 874751 )

          How is 2023 different from 2019.

          Tax cuts and spending sprees by both parties having their effect after the easing of the pandemic along with supply shortages and opportunistic record profit-taking.

        • by zekica ( 1953180 )
          2020 and a sharp increase in M0 money supply happened.
    • It's because everything is seen in purely monetary way. Yet what exactly happens in economy depends on goods that are available. If there is not enough of a thing to buy you won't make it appear just by having some money. Only thing that monetary policy determines is how exactly limited goods and services are distributed among people. Of course some monetary incentives can lead to people actually making more stuff but there are other concerns and changes don't happen immediately.
      • Not enough of a thing to buy? Barring RasPis and some other electronic gadgets, what exactly seems to be in short supply?

        Around here, two large chains just shut down because they couldn't get their crap sold. They were literally sitting on piles of unsold and unsellable merchandise.

        • Maybe because people actually have to buy something else with their limited money, which actually got into limited supply.
          • And that something else is likely to be wares with inelastic demand.
          • No they don't. They could put the money in the bank and get 5.4% interest on that money which is above current inflation rate. And, if they did that, inflation would subside.
            • You seriously believe 5% is above the current inflation rate?

              If you factor in consumer electronics and other crap we get cheaply from abroad in a ridiculously overblown way, this may actually be correct. Unfortunately I don't need a new TV every day. I do need food, though.

              Care to take a look at the food price change in the past, say, 12 months?

              • Grocery inflation is around 5% for the year. Overall inflation is lower than that. Yes there were some months with higher inflation. But, that's not really relevant to the future as it's in the past. The predicted inflation rates going forward are in the 3-4% range so you definitely make a real profit on savings right now. That's unusual. In normal times, the risk-free rate of return is often lower than inflation so "cash is trash" because you lose in real terms. Right now that's not true and saving a
              • Although double-digit inflation would be great for me. I owe $380k on a mortgage. Imagine if the price of everything went up 10x. My house would go from being worth about 800k to being worth 8 million but my mortgage would still be $380k. Even if my salary only went up at half of the inflation rate, inflation would turn me into a deca-millionaire and my mortgage payment would be essentially non-existent. Some poor people would be hurt by this (although wage growth has largely offset inflation for the p
              • by Reziac ( 43301 ) *

                In my business I use what amounts to bulk food commodities, with minimal middlemen.

                In the past year my costs have gone up 35%. Real numbers: base purchased unit went from $39/cwt to $63/cwt.

                I haven't seen that kind of upward lurch since the Carter administration.

                • Not to be fearmongering, but in my country, we haven't seen that kind of upward lurch since before WW2. And that was one of the reason the goose-stepping assholes took over.

        • Barring RasPis and some other electronic gadgets, what exactly seems to be in short supply?

          Ferraris.

      • The only way that "there is not enough of a thing to buy" is if it is priced too low. Simply raise the price and there will be enough of that thing to buy.
        • by Anonymous Coward

          So solve inflation by raising the prices on everything...

          I hope you donated all your money to Trump. That way you can increase demand and prices for lawyers, and lower demand and prices on whatever you usually spent your money on.

    • by ljw1004 ( 764174 )

      Really? High inflation and no compensation in wages to speak of makes people spend just enough money to get by because they can't afford jack shit anymore? Boy, who could have predicted that? Seriously, folks, in what semester in that Business Administration course is the mandatory lobotomy?

      Any idiot can make qualitative predictions, as you seem to have done in your words "high inflation... makes people spend just enough money to get by".

      But it takes serious legwork to make a quantitative prediction, in the words of TFS "the 20 countries that use the euro currency are expected to see growth of 0.8% this year instead of 1.1% projected in the spring forecast". Indeed it'd be grossly irresponsible for governing bodies NOT to make quantitative predictions.

      The question really is no longer if it happens, only when.

      So now you are interested in the qualitati

    • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      Really? High inflation and no compensation in wages to speak of makes people spend just enough money to get by because they can't afford jack shit anymore?

      And high interest rates tell them they shouldn't spend more than they have to?

      Boy, who could have predicted that?

      Seriously, folks, in what semester in that Business Administration course is the mandatory lobotomy? The question really is no longer if it happens, only when.

      Actually, honestly, this is the best way because the economic recovery basically happ

    • Are you suggesting to combat inflation you need to raise wages so people can spend more?

      Do you even understand how supply and demand works in setting prices? Not being able to afford something is irrelevant when you have easy access to capital, that is why interest rates have such a strong impact in the first place.

      • Yes. I do. And I also understand that a higher demand only has an effect on price if it outstrips supply. And we're far from this.

        Answer me this: You have a restaurant. And you have about 30% of your tables filled. Why? Because people don't have money to spend. Now you increase the money people have to spend and suddenly instead of 30% of your tables, 60% are busy.

        Question: Do you raise the prices of your food?

        You would of course if your restaurant is already full and you have a queue out around the corner.

        • Question: Do you raise the prices of your food?

          IRL the answer seems to be "yes", because most restaurants have raised their prices by about 20%, twice the inflation rate.

          • The reason for this is not that their restaurants are packed but rather that their own cost went up and they couldn't compensate any other way anymore, with the only alternative to sell below cost, i.e. eventually shutting down.

    • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

      Really? High inflation and no compensation in wages to speak of makes people spend just enough money to get by because they can't afford jack shit anymore?

      And high interest rates tell them they shouldn't spend more than they have to?

      Yep, dumping tons of money into an economy isn't a great way to stimulate it, as you have to claw that money back later to combat inflation, which can be equally as painful. You learn about this in Macro 101. But, politicians love handing out free money.

    • You can't have compensation in wages if nobody is buying anything. Inflation is always circular. What causes it is some entity distorting the market and that can happen anywhere along the circle. For example: government decides with a stroke of a pen to raise taxes or restrict access to raw materials or add a lot of new regulation that requires manpower to comply with. Producers don't raise prices for fun because a competitor won't. The entities affected by that need more money just to maintain things whic

  • by Impy the Impiuos Imp ( 442658 ) on Monday September 11, 2023 @03:46PM (#63840182) Journal

    Attention stupid US government people, especially elected ones.

    A normal omlet at a greasy spoon with a side of bacon and cup of coffee is pushing $20. No, this isn't some snotty NYC burough.

    Thus was about $10 before COVID.

    Thanks! I hope your fortunes went up instead of down like everybody else!

    • I mean it was a slam dunk. Ship out tons of money and ride the coattails of that into re-election. Apparently, memories of the Carter administration were growing dim. Volcker could have told them they were wrong and would pay a high price, but he died just before the pandemic measures went into place.

    • The $4 box of cereal is now $6. The $1 lb of margarine is now $1.50, the $1.80 loaf of bread is now $3.50.

      And gas is over $5 a gallon here in WA state, thanks Governor Inslee.

      Wasn't the Arab Spring started by a sudden spike in food prices? You would think they could take a hint, but no, all that matters is some squabble half way around the world.

      Rumor has it that the Social Security COLA next month will be about 3%. That will not be very popular.

      • Maybe the old farts will finally vote less Reich wing when they see that only the leftists want to increase their social security.

        Nah, never happen. They will keep voting themselves into poverty to fight abortion.

        • Maybe the old farts will finally vote less Reich wing when they see that only the leftists want to increase their social security.

          Nah, never happen. They will keep voting themselves into poverty to fight abortion.

          Huh? It was Trump, a republican, that set the stage for Roe v Wade to be overturned, via his SCOTUS appointments. Abortion is a state's issue at this point, as it should have been all along. It's angry Leftist women that fight to kill the unborn now.

          A lot of those old farts also became a lot richer under Trump.

          • A lot of those old farts also became a lot richer under Trump.

            No, that's completely false. A very small percentage of those old farts became richer under Trump — ones who were already rich, specifically. The poor became poorer, and most of the elderly are poor. But because they're dumb enough to vote for fascism, they got poorer still.

            Abortion is a human rights issue, it has to do with whether you control your body or not. You cannot take an organ from a corpse without the person's permission in their lifetime, but you can force a woman to carry a child of rape

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Attention stupid US government people, especially elected ones.

      A normal omlet at a greasy spoon with a side of bacon and cup of coffee is pushing $20. No, this isn't some snotty NYC burough.

      Thus was about $10 before COVID.

      Thanks! I hope your fortunes went up instead of down like everybody else!

      As a formerly semi-frequent visitor to the US before COVID, this was happening way before COVID. The US used to be an affordable place to visit for other western nations (UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, Germany, et al.) and even affordable to many developing nations as a "once in a decade" trip. However since about 2015 prices have been going up across the board, accommodation, food, attractions and entertainment. It's not quite as bad as Australia, but you're getting there.

      The EU (and UK) are suffering i

    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      Yes, it did. And the reason for this is because 1) we drastically dropped the amount of trade with China, which means a lot of the stuff we imported now has to be made here and 2) we need people to build out that manufacturing plant locally. That means men who were working in factories have moved into the riskier but potentially more lucrative field of construction, and women who were working in the service industry have moved into full time positions at factories where you actually get benefits and consi
  • Energy = money (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Stonefish ( 210962 ) on Monday September 11, 2023 @04:24PM (#63840284)

    This is all about energy. The countries which are suffering the most are closely tied to fossil fuels to power their industrial economy, supplies of which have been disrupted due to the Ukraine war. Both German and Italian manufacturing industry and their economies in general have been smashed by high energy prices. What is not commonly understood is that every MW of renewables brought online, 1.2 MW of gas generation is require to back it. So countries with high renewable penetration are over a barrel and are having to embrace heavily polluting power sources such as coal to lower their gas bill.

    It's interesting to contrast these economies with the French economy which has significantly greater energy security due to their use of nuclear, while the German economy shrank the French economy grew. This was while a number of their reactors were off-line due to maintenance, so over the next year this difference will become even more apparent.
    Ironically the wind turbine manufacturers in Europe whose products are in high demand are in crisis, Siemens lost nearly $1 billion on wind last year; pure-play Vestas saw an operating profit decline of 369%. GE Renewable Energy posted a loss of $2.24 billion so something is clearly broken. Costs of wind turbines will clearly have to rise if this industry is to grow which will be a blow to those predicting every reducing costs for wind.

    What is clear is that across the board countries using nuclear are doing better economically are those with a significant amount of nuclear power. The only outliers are countries which export fossil fuels.

    • In other words: we demonstrated so far that deploying renewables was cost-efficient when using cheap fossil fuels (manufacturing done in countries which use fossil fuels, to bring costs down, and a lot of cheap gas needed for backup).

      The fact that it is simple maths, and was predicted decades ago, is what is really depressing. That, and seeing Germany actively trying to undermine nuclear, while being the 2nd worst CO2 emitter in EU. And the country whose economy is actually in really bad shape, with industr

    • by ac22 ( 7754550 )

      What is not commonly understood is that every MW of renewables brought online, 1.2 MW of gas generation is require to back it.

      I agree with you that renewables currently need to be backed up by gas, but I hadn't seen the 1MW/1.2MW figure before. Do you have a link?

    • by unami ( 1042872 )
      otoh, inflation is even lower in Denmark than in France, despite it having mostly wind energy - and they definitely don't have that 1,2 MW gas generation backing up every MW of renewables (and don't import it either)
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      This is nonsense.

      Germany, for example, is not reliant on Russian gas: https://www.bbc.com/news/busin... [bbc.com]

      In fact Germany hasn't had a delivery of Russian gas for a year now.

      Also, renewables don't require 1.2x as much standby gas generation to back them up. If you look at a graph of Germany's energy mix (https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts) you can clearly see that it has about half as much gas generation as it has renewable. What's more, renewable growth

      • Germany, for example, is not reliant on Russian gas

        It is a musical chair game though. Gas deliveries worldwide are the same than before the Russia--Ukraine war. Which means that Germany just tossed the burden of buying russian gas to someone else. And instead, they are buying liquefied NG from the US, which is less efficient energy-wise (you need energy to put it in liquid form, and energy again to put it back into gas; and you also need a lot more energy/fossil fuels for the tankers that have to cross the ocean).
        Germany is effectively the cause of even mor

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Correct me if I'm wrong, but 12 is not 1.2x131. So the claim that "renewables require 1.2x as much gas to back them up" is obviously bollocks.

    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      This is correct. I would add that Germany also used Russian natural gas as the input to its huge industrial chemical industry, so it's not just that heating in the winter is expensive, but almost everything they manufacture has become much more expensive. Basing the majority of your industry on inputs from Russia was a risky bet, and Germany lost the bet.
  • by Koen Lefever ( 2543028 ) on Monday September 11, 2023 @05:08PM (#63840376)
    Belgium and Luxembourg have full automatic wage indexation [link2europe.eu] protecting consumers from inflation, some other countries have non-full or non-automatic indexation [europa.eu] mechanisms.
    • I still have family in Belgium and while indexation is a reality for salaries, various allocations including pensions and even rents, they are calculated on a global index so the low or medium income people who spend most of their money on rent, food and energy see their cost of living going up starkly. Food has gone up more than the index for example.

  • by bigtreeman ( 565428 ) <treecolin@gDALImail.com minus painter> on Monday September 11, 2023 @05:47PM (#63840444)

    Interest rates are a blunt instrument which doesn't precisely target the parts of the economy which need to be "checked" and instead focus on people, especially the lower socio-economic. Targetted taxation would be a much better tool, not the hands which control the casino which is the banking sector.

    • Higher interest rates only hurt if you need to borrow money. If you have been in your car loan/house loan for a few years, none of this is hurting you, so long as you know how to live within your means. If you have no house or car loan, it also is not hurting you. People taking out new loans are of course going to feel it the most but that's not necessarily the poorest people in the stack. Many poor people can't afford a car anyway and won't be taking out those loans.

      As always, the middle class is likely ta

    • by Stonefish ( 210962 ) on Monday September 11, 2023 @06:13PM (#63840498)

      Yes interest rates are a blunt instrument however they target risk. When you borrow you are making a risk based decision based upon the information at hand feeding the economy. Unfortunately some of these decisions will turn out to be poor ones if low interest rates have been baked in which creates financial stress.
      There is a greater structural issue where debt has been used to inflate housing prices in some countries, effectively transferring wealth to the elderly and indirectly taxing the young. Debt should be financing industry not housing however it has been becoming politically more difficult to tax the elderly as they grow in numbers and have become a significant voting block.

    • I'm not totally against the use of blunt instruments, but we should choose the people they're being used on more wisely.

  • So people are buying less crap. Less energy and raw materials are being converted into land fills while emitting co2. In absence of much cleaner supply chains and energy sources, the economy *needs* to drop to middle-age levels if we want to reach a long-term livable environment. I celebrate any contraction of the economy, at least until we have one that is aligned with surviving.
  • It is interesting how the rich love inflation. Because their money isn't tied up in currency, it means that they just sit there and gain money by doing nothing, while people whose main value is savings or a paycheck, have the value of their assets shrink.

    Compare that to China where they are having a deflationary recession, which means that the average prole there, their money actually is more usable.

    Deflationary recessions are a lot easier to get out of than inflationary, because the value with inflation i

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