Bitcoin Recovers Some Losses After Its Worst Week Since 2013 (reuters.com) 150
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Reuters: Bitcoin fell nearly 30 percent at one stage on Friday to $11,159.93. At 3:09 p.m. (2009 GMT) on Tuesday, bitcoin BTC=BTSP was up 15 percent at $16,030 in light trading on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange. The digital currency had risen around twentyfold since the start of the year, climbing from less than $1,000 to as high as $19,666 on Dec. 17 on Bitstamp and to over $20,000 on other exchanges. Critics have pointed to bitcoin's design flaws and hacks of digital "wallets" in which bitcoins are kept as an alternative to traditional currencies. Prices of other cryptocurrencies, which slid along with bitcoin last week, have also recovered, with Ethereum, the second-biggest cryptocurrency by market size, quoted around $771, up from Sunday's low of $689 but still far from highs around $900 hit last week.
Tulip farmers say Tulip market will bounce back (Score:1, Insightful)
Once the warehouses of Tulips clear at the temporarily lower prices, Tulip markets will return to astronomic levels, especially once the South Sea boats arrive!
Re:Tulip farmers say Tulip market will bounce back (Score:5, Interesting)
People shit themselves when the Dow Jones index drops a hundred points. Bitcoin just essentially did the equivalent of dropping ten thousand points, and people are laughing it off.
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Fact: Bitcoin generates nothing out of thin air; If you earned something with Bitcoin then somebody else lost that exact same amount (plus transaction fees).
This is kindergarten-level math, it means the limiting factor of Bitcoin profit is the amount of money that people can put in and lose.
Questions:
a) How long do you think these losses are sustainable?
b) If you're buying Bitcoin today, what makes you think you're not one of the losers?
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> Bitcoin generates nothing out of thin air
There is economic value in the transactions and storage of wealth.
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There is economic value in the transactions and storage of wealth.
There's nothing that would make it multiply everybody's money by 1000x just because they put it in there.
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There's nothing that would make it multiply everybody's money by 1000x just because they put it in there.
Correct. But it does have a value. And if it starts at zero, goes to that value, and then stays there forever, that means the early adopters get a profit, and the late adopters get the value. Nobody loses anything.
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Most "investors" will lose a lot.
Yep. Most "investors" are simply gifting their life savings to either
a) the miners, or
b) the people who got in at the beginning.
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There was economic value in buying and selling of Beanie Babies and storage of Beanie Babies.
There isn't any more.
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> Fact: Bitcoin generates nothing out of thin air; If you earned something with Bitcoin then somebody else lost that exact same amount (plus transaction fees).
This is one of the most ignorant things Ive ever seen on slashdot. What you are basically arguing against is the concept of money itself.
What you fail to grok is that the economy is not a zero sum game.
> Fact: Gold generates nothing out of thin air; If you earned something with Gold then somebody else lost that exact same amount (plus transactio
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The DOW represents real people with real jobs and is a means to gauge the health of actual businesses. Bitcoin is a slot machine in a casino.
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Do I trust Wall Street where there is no real penalty for insider trading, or a crypto currency
The correct answer is: "None of the above"
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While I'm not married to crypto currency, the DOW (well, stock prices, the DJIA is mainly a cumulative tracking instrument) are most certainly a gamble too.
I've seen plenty of relatively minor things vastly change stock prices...or equally, plenty of nothingness drive prices to ridiculous levels.
Crypto is just at a much more infantile stage which is largely the cause of it's volatility especially when you couple it with all the ceaseless media coverage the last few months. There isn't room for a bazillion
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They can't go negative. DJIA is not a good measure. Fortune 500 and Russel 5000 are a much broader snapshot. And do you own on the ground research. What companies parking lots are full? Which ones do people talk about on the bus in in the cafeteria?
How many bums jump off the trains in the rail yards? Bums are usually the last to get hired and the first to get laid off. Are there BMWs and Jaguars at thrift stores? Are the number of help wanted ads shrinking or growing? Did your diligent and hard working bro
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i can't tell if you're a very subtle shill, or a complete fool.
BTC is not a store of value*, is not a method of exchange*, and will not supplant the dollar or the euro for anything**.
It's a speculative bubble, one that *WILL* pop, and the fallout will be a complete annihilation of trust in cryptocurrencies.
*massive fluctuations in price, lack of acceptance, etc etc.
** if you honestly believe that the US gov't or EU would allow their currency to be replaced by cryptocurrency.. please, I implore you to sink a
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Yes I do. It is more like the snake oil some bogus doctor comes to town to sell. Shills are planted in the crowd to show enthusiasm and pump things up by "buying" the snake oil. And then there are the fake testimonials (which is not a shill).
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Do you know what shill actually means? Bitcoin isn't a company, you know that, right?
A "shill" could also be paid by a high-level Bitcoin miner.
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It's a speculative bubble, one that *WILL* pop, and the fallout will be a complete annihilation of trust in cryptocurrencies.
That's a little extreme, don't you think? When have bank collapses ever caused a complete annihilation of trust in banks?
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It's been pretty close a few times. In fact, I doubt many people would trust banks if they didn't all have government backed insurance.
And banks provide a real service (they'll "store" your money for you). Putting money in a bank is at least safer than keeping it under your pillow. Putting money in bitcoin, either with a shady Internet exchange or in your own wallet on your poorly backed up computer, doesn't seem to be.
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Yep. I've talked to several supposedly smart people over the last few weeks and they all think Bitcoin has no limit, that they could buy one bitcoin today and be a millionaire when they retire.
Basic math proves them wrong (and they agreed with me after I explained it), but... people want to believe!
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I don't know about the pillow thing. Banks keep getting shakier and the financial systems more volatile as they are deregulated. Always keep some cash in a safety deposit box or a firebox is what I say.
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Keeping cash in a safety deposit box will only guarantee it loses value due to inflation over time. And if that cash is fiat money, then it will lose value if the fiat currency collapses. You might put gold in a safety deposit box. That will likely always have some value and probably more so if the surrounding fiat currency goes titsup.
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Gold isn't all that much better.
It's value is largely based on people wanting it to have value. The majority of gold goes to making...jewelry. Combine that with bullion and you have the large majority of gold usage.
The amount of gold used in manufacturing is a small fraction of the overall total so, while it's still necessary, the hype around "we must has all teh golds for computerz" is utter crap. There's enough in people's jewelry today to support the manufacturing industry for 100+ years.
People just a
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I'm old enough to remember when you could actually earn interest on money in a bank account. These days, you'd probably get more from the money under the pillow than in the bank. At least the pillow doesn't charge you fees.
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I wish I could mod you. I've thought about that too. If you count minimum balances and fees then you are talking negative interest rate.
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before or after the FDIC?
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1929
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OK, actually my first response was too quick. See also:
2008 Bear Stearns. Remember them? That's when Bernanke discovered libertarianism doesn't work.
2008 Washington Mutual
2008 Wachovia
1930s - all of them. Banks were put on holiday for a time until the Federal gov't could stabilize them. Hooray for gov't intervention in the market place! It saved the world.
Panic of 1819
Panic 0f 1837
Panic of 1857
Panic of 1873
Panic of 1893
About every 20 years each generation failed to learn.
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Ok, so while we've got all these panic moments...remind me how many people got very, VERY rich in the process?
If you got OUT of the dotcom bubble at the right time you could have made a killing and kept it.
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Most people didn't. That's the point. Most people got wiped out. That's the point.
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The point is there is no FDIC for bitcoin. It is an unregulated market like in the 1800's banks.
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Anyone with more than 250K in deposits. Was it Bearn Stearns where the partners only got a few thousand dollars of there hundreds of thousands or millions that had in the bank?
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This neck beard thing of being the first person to scream TULIP really is getting old. Bitcoin is still double what is was a month ago.
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By all means sink you home equity into the market
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You're an idiot if you sink your home equity into any investment. Bitcoin is great for fast buying and selling. I put some spare cash in here and there and come out ahead.
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Agreed. Long term vs. short term investment.
Real estate is generally a good long term investment but it's equally bad to sink all your money into that.
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By all means sink you home equity into the market
Blah, blah, I can't make a valid argument so I'm going to run to the entire end of the spectrum to point out some sort of flaw.
Seriously your entire comment is shit, here's why. Eggs, basket, all of one in the other. Go back in your corner and rethink your argument because clearly there was none that went into this drivel.
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Why does the US treasury spend more than 1 cent to make pennies when they are worth less than one cent?
It's because Currency has value _as Currency_
That's only _part_ of the value of BitCoin.
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When the value of the metal in a penny exceeds 1 cent, you'll probably find they start disappearing from circulation as people start to collect them and sell them for the metal.
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When the value of the metal in a penny exceeds 1 cent, you'll probably find they start disappearing from circulation as people start to collect them and sell them for the metal.
Well, for one thing that would be a federal crime... Do so at your own risk.
For another thing, the cost to make a penny already far exceeds what one is worth. The cost to make a penny is 1.5 cents. So a 50cent roll of pennies costs 75cents to make. We're not seeing people taking coins out of circulation to sell them for metal.
Part of that is because, it costs money to break down a penny into it's constituent metals of course... and whereas a penny may cost 1.5 cents to make, that doesn't mean it contain
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Wrong. Bitcoin has production costs that keep rising over time as the math to solve blocks get harder and harder by design. These costs set a bottom price for the coin that has to be paid for anyone to do any mining. Depending on the price of electricity and what kind of equipment one is using, that price is anywhere from a 500 to 1500 dollars per coin mined [grisha.org] (not including hardware costs, that's just the electricity the actual co
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Bitcoin has production costs that keep rising over time as the math to solve blocks get harder and harder by design.
No, the math doesn't get harder and harder. It is adjusted to keep the average at 6 blocks/hour. If more people start mining, the math will get harder, but if fewer people mine (for example because electricity prices go up, or bitcoin price goes down), then the math will get easier again.
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This neck beard thing of being the first person to scream
Let me stop you there. This is Slashdot, apparently everything invented in the 70s is the only thing that matters around here. Anything past that is pure shit that eventually will be shown as the shit it truly is. Like literally, from politics to init to technology. If it wasn't invented in the 70s, it's shit and that's what Slashdot is best known for everywhere else on the Internet (which of course was invented in the 70s except for IPv6 which is shit).
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This neck beard thing of being the first person to scream
Let me stop you there. This is Slashdot, apparently everything invented in the 70s is the only thing that matters around here. Anything past that is pure shit that eventually will be shown as the shit it truly is. Like literally, from politics to init to technology. If it wasn't invented in the 70s, it's shit and that's what Slashdot is best known for everywhere else on the Internet (which of course was invented in the 70s except for IPv6 which is shit).
Indeed. For a tech forum, this is a very luddite community in general.
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This neck beard thing of being the first person to scream TULIP really is getting old. Bitcoin is still double what is was a month ago.
The tulip bubble is a great example of how a bubble might play out. It doesn't mean that ALL rapidly rising stocks will follow the same model. It's also a bad example because BTC has some valid uses (unlike a tulip that was purely ornamental).
So, yeah, I think the tulip bubble is a valid point to make, but it doesn't tell the whole story. It doesn't mean that BTC is going to follow the same path.
I'm not willing to invest in bitcoin (I think all the major money to be made was before banks got involved, in
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If you have to ask what a neck beard is then you might be one. People claimed bitcoin would collapse at $20, then $200, then $2,000. Here we are at $16k and doing fine.
Probably not the bubble bursting. (Score:2)
It is year end. It makes sense that some of the long term holders (1yr+) sell off to get the lower tax rates. Others maybe splitting the profits between 2018 & 2019. A few of those two groups and then a ton of panicked sellers cashed out.
Also people probably needed the cash to buy gifts during the year end sales or pay off things.
Pump, dump (Score:5, Insightful)
while True:
bitcoin.pump()
bitcoin.dump()
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Fuck it and chuck it, hump it and dump it, sex it and BREXIT, date it and abate it, etc.
North Korea needed some cash (Score:4, Funny)
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I heard that Great Leader ordered two pizzas because at 5000 Bitcoins per pizza, it's only for rich and important people like Great Leader.
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I prefer to think of him as the Great Dumpling. If the famine gets severe enough, I'd be a little worried if I were he and his minions started encouraging him to eat more. He'd be self-basting on a spit.
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Bitcoin, Welcome to wall street (Score:5, Interesting)
.
Hold them while you can, and don't worry, the price will be back up. Just as soon as those with enough money to manipulate the market are ready to cash in. You just need to sell before they do, and so the price goes back down again.
You thought the stock market was bad? Companies have intrinsic value. You can sell a physical hole in the ground for cash. Bitcoins are only worth what the people that don't have them assigns to them. Lets hope that value isn't zero anytime soon.
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Technically, you're selling the ground that's around the hole.
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For a year or two, it was hovering around USD$80 most of the time.
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You thought the stock market was bad? Companies have intrinsic value.
That's the wrong way to look at it. A more informative way to look at it would be as a kind of FOREX arbitrage play. You can make plenty of profit off it by understanding the complexities of supply/demand as related to currency.
Obviously in this case, profiteering demand is a huge component, but it also was in the Swiss Franc run-up that happened a few years back.
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More traders usually means volatility goes down. Volatility is determined by average sentiment moving around. The larger the group, the less the average moves.
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You thought the stock market was bad? Companies have intrinsic value.
Companies don't have intrinsic value just because they're companies. They must produce something of value, products or services. Now please compare the innovativeness of Bitcoin as a money transfer technology to something like Twitter, instead of treating it like trading cards.
Yawn (Score:5, Interesting)
Seen around the internet [imgs.fyi]
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If a coin comes up heads 20 times in a row, I wouldn't bet on tails.
you're falling for a gamblers fallacy that a failure is 'due' because of all the success.
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Seen around the internet [imgs.fyi]
That sounds exactly like the behavior that I want from a currency.
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It was a completely new and unknown asset, starting at zero. It's virtually impossible to go from that to a stable value X without volatility on the way.
BTFD (Score:1)
So what? (Score:2)
Are we going to have another bitcoin story every time the fucking price changes now?
Does BTC actually have a stable value? (Score:2)
Long-time Wall Streeter here. Actually, the trading dynamics of BTC are very much like any other speculative vehicle, although the short-term volatility is unusually high. (It is hard to get exercised over the nearly 50% retrace that occurred since the peak just under $20,000, especially since its extent was widely predicted by quants. The bounce came almost precisely off the Fibonacci support level around $11,600.)
Someone else mentioned Forex and many have mentioned equities. (Funny, no one is comparing BT
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Let me connect one more dot: ARBITRAGE. If I'm right about all of this, then there is some kind of covariance between gold and BTC. Professional traders very much want to precisely quantify this relationship. I read BTC markets as highly illiquid and difficult to trade, whereas gold isn't super-liquid but not really hard to trade for the pros. That means there may be an arb here at low levels of overall value. If BTC futures turn out to be workable and liquid, then arb-trading against gold could become a th
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I worded my statement about covariance and crises very carefully so as not to imply any kind of causality :-). I think you may be saying that the capital-asset models people rely on in normal times are actually invalid... something which becomes evident at times of crisis. There's certainly a case to be made for that, but it's partially refuted by the existence of... normal times. Two crises that I lived and traded through (the 1998 LT crisis and the events of 2007-08) had a lot of structural similarities b