A Cautionary Tale For China's Ambitious Chipmakers (npr.org) 84
An anonymous reader shares a report: In 2019, the U.S. sanctioned two major Chinese telecom firms, temporarily cutting them off from a vital supply of semiconductor chips -- bits of silicon wafer and microscopic circuitry that help run nearly all our electronic devices. Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. promised a way out, toward self-reliance in the face of increasingly tough U.S. curbs on this technology. The private company once boasted on its website that it would raise a total of $20 billion to churn out 60,000 leading-edge chips a year. None of that would come to pass.
Hongxin's unfinished plant in the port city of Wuhan now stands abandoned. Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan. The company is one of six multibillion-dollar chip projects to fail in the last two years. Their rise and fall is a cautionary tale in an industry that is flush with state cash but still scarce on expertise -- and a preview of the expensive and winding road China will have to take toward semiconductor self-sufficiency, now a national security priority.
Hongxin's unfinished plant in the port city of Wuhan now stands abandoned. Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan. The company is one of six multibillion-dollar chip projects to fail in the last two years. Their rise and fall is a cautionary tale in an industry that is flush with state cash but still scarce on expertise -- and a preview of the expensive and winding road China will have to take toward semiconductor self-sufficiency, now a national security priority.
Chine is also threatening othes chip production (Score:4, Interesting)
Or a large part of it, with the constant threats to invade Taiwan. Taiwan has after all a huge part of the world chip production facilities.
Putting all eggs in one basket (Score:3, Insightful)
The US is in a similar boat by depending on Taiwan. If a conflict breaks out or natural disaster occurs there, our supply gets interrupted. The big problem with economic "comparative advantage" is that it tends to put all eggs in one basket. It's efficient if everything is going smooth, but chokes on disruptions.
Re:Putting all eggs in one basket (Score:5, Interesting)
The US is addressing the problem by offering TSMC big incentives to build a fab in Arizona.
China is trying to build an industry from scratch.
The US solution is more sensible. But China can't do the same because of technology transfer restrictions and also because TSMC doesn't trust them.
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China often exchanges technology with Russia.
Re:Putting all eggs in one basket (Score:5, Funny)
China often exchanges technology with Russia.
For semiconductor tech, that's sorta like two bald men sharing a comb.
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As a hair-challenged boomer, I suggest you find a different analogy.
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China is trying to build an industry from scratch.
And that's what the article fails to mention, that the six proposed fabs that didn't pan out don't mean diddly if there are dozens of other fabs that did. Like Iraq's nuclear weapons program, where they tried everything under the sun but only needed one to work out, China can throw money at dozens of efforts, of which only a few have to pay out. For example just one company, SMIC, which is mentioned in the story, operates about half a dozen fabs, the same number as the failed-count in the article. So jus
Re:Chine is also threatening othes chip production (Score:5, Insightful)
Or a large part of it, with the constant threats to invade Taiwan. Taiwan has after all a huge part of the world chip production facilities.
Speaking of threats to a large part of it, we'll see who plays the part of Regret after an attack on Taiwan unfolds on the world's stage.
China may be one of the worlds most populous countries, but rest assured they cannot handle pissing off a large portion of the planet that is reliant upon Taiwanese chip production for every-day life.
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China may be one of the worlds most populous countries, but rest assured they cannot handle pissing off a large portion of the planet that is reliant upon Taiwanese chip production for every-day life.
When China invades Taiwan, your choices are:
1. Let China have Taiwan and allow production to resume as soon as possible, or...
2. Start a nuclear war with China and lose 40% of your country's population and 80% of its industrial capacity
As for pissing off a large part of the world, the British did it a hundred years ago and they're currently well-liked by most countries.
Re:Chine is also threatening othes chip production (Score:4)
Taiwan is one of the most heavily armed pieces of turf on the planet. Even without direct US involvement, China would suffer pretty grievous losses in the attempt. And the US presence in the region is pretty large, and no matter how much Beijing may thump its fists on the table, it's likely terrified of even an accidental war with the United States. I don't think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is any more likely than it was sixty years ago.
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I hear mixed things about this, like Taiwan has made some bad choices on military hardware and has some iffy preparedness.
Mostly it boils down to China losing a big chunk of its expeditionary assets in the process. They would ultimately conquer Taiwan, but would be greatly diminished as a military power in the process.
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I hear mixed things about this, like Taiwan has made some bad choices on military hardware and has some iffy preparedness.
Mostly it boils down to China losing a big chunk of its expeditionary assets in the process. They would ultimately conquer Taiwan, but would be greatly diminished as a military power in the process.
Not to mention every country with a border dispute with China will have more reasons to go on the defensive, economically and militarily. Vietnam, Japan, India, I doubt they'll "do nothing" if China were to invade Taiwan.
Taiwan still have the military capability to shoot the shit out of anything coming over the Taiwan strait. So it is not as if China can simply waltz its way towards Taipei.
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No, no, the obvious result is a complete economic decoupling, and 100% sanctions.
They can try to restart production if they want, but they'll only be selling to developing nations that don't want trade with the US.
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We may discover that many countries we thought are on our side would actually side with China when push comes to shove. See the HK situation for example. Has the UK cut ties with China? No. And if they won't bother in the case of HK, who's to say Taiwan is any different?
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UK doesn't own HK, and they mostly did withdraw their financial services footprint from the city.
You seem very confused. HK was already part of China.
Taiwan is different, the US is protecting it.
You fantasize that given the choice between their closest ally, or a small trade partner, the UK would throw away their only powerful ally? That's just stupid.
When the US and China decouple, the UK and China will also be decoupling. Duh. Their own interests will require it, it isn't some favor we'd be asking of them
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China may be one of the worlds most populous countries, but rest assured they cannot handle pissing off a large portion of the planet that is reliant upon Taiwanese chip production for every-day life.
When China invades Taiwan, your choices are: 1. Let China have Taiwan and allow production to resume as soon as possible, or... 2. Start a nuclear war with China and lose 40% of your country's population and 80% of its industrial capacity
As for pissing off a large part of the world, the British did it a hundred years ago and they're currently well-liked by most countries.
When China invades Taiwan, they'll be staring down the barrel of at least half a dozen major countries. That, is not a "war", China can win. Ever. They should know this.
And massive populations don't mean shit in a post-nuclear world. If nukes are flying, no one is bragging about the size of their human armies.
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djinn6 opined:
When China invades Taiwan, your choices are:
1. Let China have Taiwan and allow production to resume as soon as possible, or...
2. Start a nuclear war with China and lose 40% of your country's population and 80% of its industrial capacity
Nice little false dichotomy you pose there, troll boy.
In actuality, there's a whole range of possible - and steadily escalating - responses to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They start with overt diplomatic warnings about economic consequences to the PRC, as well as naked, back-channel threats of military intervention, well before any invasion begins. Next comes sending the bulk of the Sixth Fleet to patrol the waters surrounding the island. That's followed by frogmen and underwater drones sabo
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Maybe you should read before you started typing.
In the situation GP is proposing, China attacks Taiwan, which means they're attacking when they think they can win. That would be after they built up sufficient military hardware to deter any US-led defense, whether that's anti-ship missiles, submarines, AA missile batteries or a much larger nuclear stockpile. China's very secretive about their capabilities, so it could be today or it could be a decade out.
They start with overt diplomatic warnings about economic consequences to the PRC, as well as naked, back-channel threats of military intervention, well before any invasion begins.
In case you haven't noticed, we already do this today.
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And if Je is foolish enough to launch a nuclear attack against American assets (Biden won't authorize a first strike by the USA
They could nuke a carrier strike group or a military base. Do you launch against their cities in that case? They could neuter the US navy near Taiwan without ever coming close to nuking an American city.
And the end result of that, would be what I stated already; China staring down the barrel of at least half a dozen major countries, every one of them in lockstep.
China will not be able to "neuter", the world they would piss off. And any threat short of this, would incur a similar response; a modern industrial world saying Back the Fuck Off from a country they're heavily reliant on. Taiwan is hardly a US-only matter, regardless of the first-strike targets.
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I'm not claiming that the U.S. wouldn't suffer major casualties,
Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.
-- General "Buck" Turgidson.
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3. Fight a conventional war. The Chinese have to come across the sea and it is not a given that they can get past the US Navy.
Likely results:
I'd bet on the Chinese invasion failing because not enough of their landing ships survive crossing the Taiwan Strait. But I'd also bet that TSMC takes some bombing damage and production is stopped for a while.
Other than that, a total embargo would be guaranteed. Both China and the West would have some painful gaps in their supplies for a few years.
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The Chinese have to come across the sea and it is not a given that they can get past the US Navy.
It is, however, a given that they wouldn't attack until they're certain they could get past the US navy.
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China may be one of the worlds most populous countries, but rest assured they cannot handle pissing off a large portion of the planet that is reliant upon Taiwanese chip production for every-day life.
When China invades Taiwan, your choices are: 1. Let China have Taiwan and allow production to resume as soon as possible, or... 2. Start a nuclear war with China and lose 40% of your country's population and 80% of its industrial capacity
As for pissing off a large part of the world, the British did it a hundred years ago and they're currently well-liked by most countries.
This is a fallacy. Taiwan is armed to the teeth, there's no conventional war that China can inflict on Taiwan without incurring a Pyrrhic victory.
Also, there's no need for a nuclear war. All you need is an economic war, and rest assured if every major economic block (The US and Canada, the EU, Japan) made a concerted effort, China would end up losing more than what they are willing to lose.
Blind nationalism and oppressive regimes make people do stupid shit, so it is possible for the CCP to launch an att
I hear tell (Score:4, Interesting)
The Chinese have the advantage in that they can get expertise, and when they want can disrupt more than anyone else. Just look at the banishment of H&M.
In fact filed development projects are as common as rice and beans. A friend, for instance, worked for a company who was totally left without a dime after a pot grower was not able to secure funding to complete his grow building. It is part of a vibrant market.
H&M doesn't really matter (Score:2)
China doesn't really have an advantage per se, it's just standard grifting. Whether it's this one or Wisconsin it's charismatic politicians & rich assholes making promises they won't keep. Like the Simpson's monorail.
Strange (Score:4)
Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan.
"Despite".
Cold War (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: Cold War (Score:3)
How the fuck did the west get into this situation?
How about letting the Taiwan issue fester, building up China economically and militarily and allowing Taiwan to build itself up as the centre for western ASIC manufacturing ... what could go wrong?
Barring a miracle the West needs to ally with Taiwan sooner or later ... and it's going to bring the world closer to nuclear war than it's ever been. The later the west does so, the more dangerous it gets ... but it's sure tempting to pray for that miracle and wait
Cold theft. (Score:2)
Already are, oh and in a nuclear war China's ambitions go up in smoke just like a lot of other people's. They'd be better just stealing everyone's tech like they usually do. Safer as well.
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How the fuck did the west get into this situation?
Who is in charge of not letting it happen? If the answer is "no one," then there's your answer.
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The factory would not survive a war, and the factory isn't there because of the land it sits on.
Re: Cold War (Score:3)
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Taiwan would destroy TSMC before letting China get it, and China knows that. China does want Taiwan, but not for TSMC. Just look at a map. They want it for its:
1) Territorial fishing waters and economic exclusion zone,
2) An eastern strategic base of operations (rather than a foreign barrier) to further press their influence to other regional neighbors and shipping,
3) To serve "One-China" nationalist propaganda that distracts their more gullible citizens from the fact their rulers are stealing from them.
The
It's not so easy (Score:4, Interesting)
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Re:It's not so easy (Score:4, Insightful)
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Bernie was Jewish?
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Bernie was Jewish?
Yes, Bernie Madoff was Jewish.
So were most of his victims. His scam was a classic case of affinity fraud [wikipedia.org].
Anyway, claiming that any discussion of Bernie is antisemitic is silly, but this may be a case of Poe's Law.
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Bernie was Jewish?
Yes, Bernie Madoff was Jewish.
So were most of his victims. His scam was a classic case of affinity fraud [wikipedia.org].
Anyway, claiming that any discussion of Bernie is antisemitic is silly, but this may be a case of Poe's Law.
Perhaps, but I've heard some of the more woke trying to turn nationality into racism.
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It depends on the product. I have a Chinese 3D printer that works well for $200. Unlike anything I might buy from a U.S. manufacturer, I have the schematics, mechanical drawings, full source for the firmware, and plenty of replacement parts on Amazon. No ugly beige case that takes 3 hours and a hacksaw to get open, no crypto protected parts to force me to buy OEM or nothing. Many people choose to upgrade and improve them.
It's not a question of labor cost or environmental regulations, the American products a
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Remember when they stole the formula for electrolyte in capacitors, but forgot to steal all of it and made faulty capacitors that we all know and love? I replaced many a faulty capacitor, thanks to you china.
They did it with ball point pens (Score:2)
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Of course they could. The problem is how does one prevent an escalation to something really bad if China did? That implies restraint, not all barrels firing.
Re: Sure... until. (Score:4, Interesting)
Boats and planes are a lot more expensive and harder to hide than missiles. The first few waves of invasion forces when China felt safe they bombed all the defences would all die.
China could blockade and bomb them into surrender, but trying to invade would be foolish.
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"China has zero modern warfare experience, last time they used a tank, they ran over a college kid. "
Well played.
Re: Sure... until. (Score:2)
And bollocks.
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We did manage to stop one in the 1940s I think you will during that little squabble involving all of Europe. The golden rule about island military defence [note that in proper English it's spelt with a 'c'] during an active invasion is to STOP the invasion happening by a) Denying your adversary air superiority and b) Denying the sea lanes to them. Something the RAF and Royal Navy did rather well. And with no US military involvement either - fancy that !
And we do have a bit of recent exposure in doing the in
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The UK probably has more experience of both attacking and defending an island than any other country.
They held off the Germans in WW2, and they retook the Falkland islands from Argentina in 1982.
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Have you looked at the just the aircraft carrier list? Or this list? https://armedforces.eu/compare... [armedforces.eu] Forget military conflict, if china did attack Tiawan they would lose all western economic ties, which is a far worse situation for them, what are their factories going to produce if they can't sell their products?
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Sure, but if you lose half of your customers how do you stay afloat? We are 20% of exports and 30% makes up for our allies
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And no, the USA could NOT stop China from taking the island...
Go watch "Saving Private Ryan".
Taiwan has more military power than the Germans had in Normandy.
China has less than 1% of the amphibious capacity that the Allies had on D-Day.
China my be able to obliterate Taiwan with missiles, but they do not have the capacity to conduct a conventional invasion.
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China has the largest navy in the world and is now one of the countries with the largest number of amphibious warships in the world [globalsecurity.org]. If China isn't capable of invading Taiwan yet, they soon will be. Everything about Beijing's actions says they are prepping for an invasion. But you say otherwise. Why is that?
The fuck is that link? Have you actually read that page? It was either generated by Bayesian filter and Markov chains or a dachshund with a concussion. Here are some direct quotes:
In the sail age, the dinghy of the big ship was used as a landing craft, but the appearance of the ship caused the boat's boat to shrink too small, so the landing craft was designed and created by the expert for the purpose of landing.
This makes it difficult to control and make passengers very uncomfortable and uncomfortable when operating in rough seas.
Note that's the second time on the page claiming that it's "uncomfortable" for passengers.
It can load 3 to 5 tanks or hundreds of landed or 100 to 300 tons of materials.
In the 20 century, 70 years, there has been full floating air cushion landing craft, speed can be more than 50 festival, and has a unique amphibious and show jumping performance, landing craft air cushion has become the focus of many countries, including the development of China's navy.
A unique show jumping performance, it says. Do tell.
A 10 year old trying to cheat on their homework by pasting from Wikipedia could do a better job. That site is dogshit. It has no credibility whatsoever and you should be ashamed for qu
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Or perhaps it was originally written in chinese and machine translated?
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Or perhaps it was originally written in chinese and machine translated?
That did occur to me, and now I'm wondering if globalsecurity.org is actually at all related to the real Global Security company that gets used as a research source by US officials on a regular basis.
it is hard to predict the future (Score:2)
Government intervention (Score:2)
Easy problem to solve (Score:1)
The USA could just stop trying to hold China back and stop trying to surround China with military.
But, no, of course that won't happen because the way the USA keeps its superiority, both militarily and economically, is via war. It's all driven by the military industrial complex, and always will be.
So, no, this isn't going to end well. The USA will find some excuse to start a war, just like in the past. But I guess China will "win" any conflict though, if history is anything to go by...for some terrible defi
Re: Easy problem to solve (Score:2)
The USA's biggest weakness, as ever, will be the lack of appetite on the part of the USA public for any losses of the oh-so-sacred "American" lives.
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Right. Because China is entirely benign. If not for the US China wouldn't be filling the oceans with plastic or using banned CFCs or genociding Uyghurs. All we need to do is leave China alone to do as it pleases and everything will be fine.