Intel's 'Historic Collapse' Erases $8 Billion From Market Value (reuters.com) 59
Intel saw about $8 billion wiped off its market value on Friday after the U.S. chipmaker stumped Wall Street with dismal earnings projections, fanning fears around a slump in the personal-computer market. Reuters reports: The company predicted a surprise loss for the first quarter and its revenue forecast was $3 billion below estimates as it also struggled with slowing growth in the data center business. Intel shares closed 6.4% lower, while rival Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia ended the session up 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. Intel supplier KLA Corp settled 6.9% lower after its dismal forecast.
"No words can portray or explain the historic collapse of Intel," said Rosenblatt Securities' Hans Mosesmann, who was among the 21 analysts to cut their price targets on the stock. The poor outlook underscored the challenges facing Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger as he tries to reestablish Intel's dominance of the sector by expanding contract manufacturing and building new factories in the United States and Europe. "AMD's Genoa and Bergamo (data center) chips have a strong price-performance advantage compared to Intel's Sapphire Rapids processors, which should drive further AMD share gains," said Matt Wegner, analyst at YipitData.
Analysts said that puts Intel at a disadvantage even when the data center market bottoms out, expected in the second half of 2022, as the company would have lost even more share by then. "It is now clear why Intel needs to cut so much cost as the company's original plans prove to be fantasy," brokerage Bernstein said. "The magnitude of the deterioration is stunning, and brings potential concern to the company's cash position over time."
"No words can portray or explain the historic collapse of Intel," said Rosenblatt Securities' Hans Mosesmann, who was among the 21 analysts to cut their price targets on the stock. The poor outlook underscored the challenges facing Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger as he tries to reestablish Intel's dominance of the sector by expanding contract manufacturing and building new factories in the United States and Europe. "AMD's Genoa and Bergamo (data center) chips have a strong price-performance advantage compared to Intel's Sapphire Rapids processors, which should drive further AMD share gains," said Matt Wegner, analyst at YipitData.
Analysts said that puts Intel at a disadvantage even when the data center market bottoms out, expected in the second half of 2022, as the company would have lost even more share by then. "It is now clear why Intel needs to cut so much cost as the company's original plans prove to be fantasy," brokerage Bernstein said. "The magnitude of the deterioration is stunning, and brings potential concern to the company's cash position over time."
No words can explain (Score:5, Insightful)
The only thing that's kept Intel going at all for the past two years has been a tech boom that's seen a ton of people buy laptops and a ton of companies buy any datacenter grade CPUs they could get cause the "Cloud" needs to grow. Except now the fun is over and so Intel's; and any investor that didn't see this coming is an idiot.
How's that for "words to explain Intel's collapse".
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They do seem to have ignored their manufacturing capability for a while which used to be why they were the market leader.
Re:No words can explain (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: No words can explain (Score:2)
Re: No words can explain (Score:4, Interesting)
And with AMD and Nvidia competing so hard intels attempt to enter the GPU market fell shirt. (sic)
Hardly. Head over to the Flight Simulator Forums [flightsimulator.com] Flight Simulator really demands high-end equipment. Everyone who's bought an Arc 770 is saying they're great. I'm buying a second 770 LE next month - with a combined 32 gb of RAM on the two cards, and 1/3 more bus width between the two cards than an NVidia 4090 at less than half the price, who wouldn't?
It's early days, they have a roadmap and early adopters are enthusiastic.
The idea that NVidia and AMD are competing in the graphic card market makes me laugh - price-wise, they still are pricing like it's crypto bro heaven. And the 4xxx series are really just a warmed-over next generation of 3xxxs if you look closely enough.
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As much as I wish Intel to become a significant competitor in the discrete GPU market, as of today they are certainly not.
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Compare the specs of 2 x Arc 770 LE to 1 x NVidia 4090
Combined VRAM: 32 gb vs 24 gb
Base Clock: 2.1 ghz vs 2.235 ghz
Memory bandwidth 512 (256x2) vs 384
And of course, as more games support Arc acceleration, both NVidia and AMD are going to go from "default purchase" to "fools a
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I'm still trying to figure out what Intel is doing with their Arc cards. When it comes to Intel's integrated GPU's, they by far have the most reliable and stable drivers compared to AMD and nVidia, especially for Linux. Which is why I would go Intel for any system where the integrated GPU would be good enough, and only consider an AMD CPU if I was already planning on a discrete GPU.
With Arc I was expecting mediocre performance but stable drivers. But instead, performance is much better than I expected, b
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Re:No words can explain (Score:5, Funny)
Have you tried asking ChatGPT?
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Have you tried asking ChatGPT?
Me - could you explain intel's economic collapse?
ChatGPT -
Intel, a multinational technology company, did not experience an economic collapse.
The company has been consistently profitable and is considered one of the largest and most successful technology companies in the world.
It is possible that you may be confused with another company or event. If you have more information or specific questions, I would be happy to try and help further.
Quite a stretch (Score:3, Funny)
It is possible that you may be confused with another company or event.
Need to rename to GaslightGPT
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"could you explain intel's economic collapse today?"
"As of 2021, Intel is a publicly traded company and as of my knowledge cutoff, it has not undergone an economic collapse. However, it is important to note that the global economy and financial markets are constantly changing, and there is always a possibility that any publicly traded company, including Intel, could experience financial difficulties in the future. But, as of today and based on my knowledge cutoff, I do not have any information
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ChatGPT doesn't know anything past 2021.
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But..but...but...Pat was supposed to bring balance to the force.
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"Pat" is trying to recover from the neglect and short-termism which has characterised Intel for years.
Intel has fallen into this trap before, remember when AMD first introduced 64-Bit processors which also happened to be more energy-efficient than those Pentium IV heating units which Intel was pushing at the time. Intel had 64-Bit processors as well, they were called Itanium and turned out to be an expensive flop.
So how did Intel recover from that mess?
- their Tel Aviv (?) development center came up with e
Words that explain: Hubris (Score:2)
Intel's prices on their CPU's have demonstrated their huge ego of how they thought themselves above comparison or other competition -- something that they've clearly been falling behind in since the huge hole in their chip design that allowed threaded performance based on speculative execution that ignored security separating multiple threads that relied on and used the 'ignoring-of-security' to boost their performance.
Their premium prices relied on speculative gains that were bought at the expense of secur
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Intel's prices on their CPU's have demonstrated their huge ego of how they thought themselves above comparison or other competition
Intel's prices on their GPUs demonstrated their bloated ego even more. If you enter a market with well established competitors, one would think you would try to undercut their prices. Yet Intel GPUs, where I live, are not significantly cheaper than equally capable GPUs from the established competitors. So good luck to Intel finding enthusiasts to become early adopters for no specific reason.
I checked the stock (Score:5, Informative)
And after checking the stock this recent drop, today, still was not as low as the stock was within 5 months when it was $25.54.
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Everybody Panic Nao (*music*) (Score:1)
A quick look at intel's market cap tells me that eight milliard dollars is a drop in a bucket on their decline in stock price. Since a high in 2020 of about 278 milliard, they're now at some 111 milliard market capitalisation. And the headline worries about a drop of eight milliard.
Anyway, stock price is just a collective opinion. What matters is not the opinion of value but the actual realisable value. intel probably fscked up and might be for the dogs, but then again, maybe their horse will sing, too. Ti
Get ur shit together intel (Score:2)
Re:Get ur shit together intel (Score:4, Informative)
No laptops are not mostly dominated by Apple:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re: Get ur shit together intel (Score:1)
In terms of profit, they are.
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You're telling me that in terms of revenue, they beat Lenovo on laptop shipments? I call bullshit.
Re: Get ur shit together intel (Score:2)
I'm telling you no such thing. Try reading it again.
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I read it, and I know what you're saying. Apple sells 1/3rd of what Lenovo sells. They would need to charge $4k or more per macbook to get the profit margins necessary to beat Lenovo on profits. That kind of revenue would be insane.
Re: Get ur shit together intel (Score:2)
I'm sorry you don't understand basic accounting.
If Lenovo sells 1 billion laptops for $1k each, at a profit of $0.01 per unit, and Apple sells 1 million laptops for $2k each at a profit of $1k, then Lenovo has made $10M and Apple has made $1B, which is 100x what Lenovo made while only moving 10% of the units.
So... will they have a bankruptcy sale ? (Score:2)
I am forced to use X86 hardware (Score:3)
Even they are no more than catching up (Score:1)
In the very early noughties I'd noticed a few cool CPUs that nobody was making laptops out of. Had they, they would've compared at least as nicely toward contemporaries as apple's silicon is now. Like a two core MIPS64 1 GHz chip dissipating 5 W per core, 10 W total. Or a 600 MHz MIPS64 chip in just 2.5 W. That would've given a decent day's work on a single charge, even with the batteries available back then. But nobody saw fit to make laptops out of those chips. It was wintento all the way.
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People, well, not us but the tech press certainly just didn't fucking understand it in the early 00s.
I remember all the BuT iTs SlOw blathering about Transmeta CPUs without a single mention of the cool running long battery life of the laptops (for the day) which they were reviewing.
Plus also in the 00s, Microsoft had a punishingly strong monopoly.
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I mostly use Macs for workstations. They run fast. They run cool. And sleep mode actually works
I use Linux. I get all the benefits of that, plus much better GPUs and they're a fraction of the price.
Intel can't ship Sapphire Rapids (Score:2)
Reportedly, Intel won't be able to ship more than 1 million Sapphire Rapids units through the middle of 2023. That kind of volume on a massively-delayed product is terrible for Intel. The majority of what they can offer to enterprise customers are dated IceLake and Cascade Lake products. AMD making mincemeat of them. Intel is losing their biggest cash cow.
That "value" was fantasy anyways (Score:3)
Seriously. Intel has been bumbling about arrogantly, while delivering sub-standard engineering. The only real advantage they ever had was their chip manufacturing and that advantage is gone.
Linked to energy being less and less available (Score:1)
Less energy avaiable = less GDP
Less GDP = less money to spend
At the moment, it may seem like a far-fetched conclusion. Kinda like a butterfly effect. Let's talk about it in a few years.
How about being dumped by Apple? (Score:4, Interesting)
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No words can explain? Well...Apple dumped them. AMD makes awesome chips and, last I checked, more competitive prices. It's been a LONG time since the PC crowd has been enthusiastic about Intel. People LOVE their AMDs. These days, Intel is primarily an OEM brand more than an enthusiast brand. You go with intel because your laptop had one. Most enthusiasts chose AMD to get more bang for their buck. Losing one of your most important OEMs, Apple, is certainly a decent explanation.
About half of Intel's revenue loss came from Apple, I think. The rest likely comes from traditional PC sales tanking as more people switch to tablets and low-end laptops, all of which tend to be ARM-based.
So basically, I can sum Intel's problems up in one word: Marvell. When Intel sold off their ARM division, they put all their eggs in one basket, and ended up completely unprepared for a post-x86 future. They rested on their laurels for far too long, and now they're paying the price for their overconfide
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about half of Intel's revenue loss came from Apple, I think.
That seems massively unlikely. Apple command about 9% of the global personal computer market share, and 0% of the massive server market.
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about half of Intel's revenue loss came from Apple, I think.
That seems massively unlikely. Apple command about 9% of the global personal computer market share, and 0% of the massive server market.
Okay, yeah, I forgot about the server market. I was just estimating Apple at around 10% out of that 20% drop in revenue. After subtracting out the server market (about two-sevenths of the overall market), that would put Apple at a little less than a third of Intel's revenue loss. It's still a very large chunk of it, though.
And the server market is also rapidly moving to ARM, so Intel is losing ground there for the same reason that they're losing ground on the PC side: their performance per watt has not k
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Well that and also AMD growing a lot relative to Intel in the server space.
I'd love to see Phoronix get hold of some of the ARM servers and put them head to head with Epyc.
Re: How about being dumped by Apple? (Score:2)
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It's been a LONG time since the PC crowd has been enthusiastic about Intel. People LOVE their AMDs. These days, Intel is primarily an OEM brand more than an enthusiast brand. You go with intel because your laptop had one. Most enthusiasts chose AMD to get more bang for their buck.
per the january 2023 steam hardware/software survey [steampowered.com], 67% of gamers are using intel CPUs.
the top performing gaming CPUs are intel.
the only AMD CPU in a decade or more that gave intel trouble was the 5800x3D - hopefully the soon-to-be-released 7000 series w/ 3D cache will do the same.
but good lord man, your info is terribly misinformed.
Imaginary Money (Score:2)
Most of that $8B is imaginary money that never actually existed. I'm sure we're still talking about a sizeable amount of real cash, but nowhere even remotely close to $8B.
Why are companies being held to external dreams? (Score:4, Insightful)
I keep hearing about companies missing analyst expectations.
Doesn't some of the fault fall on unrealistic and overly optimistic expectations by analysts that the companies pay double for when they aren't met.
Once for lower results, and then again for them being even lower than some dipshits imagined they would be?
If the analysts expectations are that far off the mark, i'd ask what is wrong with their models and not blame all of the result on the company.
If my financial advisor said invest in these companies as the projections are +20% and then the reality is a -20%, I'd ask what my advisor was smoking, not get angry with the companies.
After all that, I do hope Intel finds a way forward in the long term. Their plans for new production/research facilities/tech is likely going to be revised further setting them back. They've stumbled on several occasions and I think their aggressive pricing on processors had driven lots of the market away to AMD for a cheaper alternative. (Especially in the consumer market) At the business/enterprise side- accountants/finance aren't known for looking for best option, if AMD chips are much cheaper than Intel, It's a no brainer for them as long as it meets bare minimum requirements.
Re: Why are companies being held to external dream (Score:2)
Analysts use guidance provided by Intel. If Intel's numbers are junk, so are the analysts'.
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But these "analysts" are still making up shit.
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Mostly the current stock price is based on analyst estimates, as a proxy for value.
If there's a huge discrepancy then the price needs to adjust to reflect that because the analyst-driven valuation was incorrect.
may be, just may be (Score:1)
Easy to explain (Score:2, Insightful)
First, the Intel x86 architecture sucks. Back before the PC existed, they had the 8080 chip competing against the Zilog Z80, the Motorola 6800, and the 6502. These were all very limited 8-bit processors. Everybody could see the future would require 16-bit CPUs, and each vendor took their own paths. Zilog went bit with the Z8000 which unfortunately found no customers and eventually dies in obscurity. The 6502 made a hack version with slight improvements (65816, which I seem to recall found a brief home in an
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Spoken like someone who wasn't there....
There is more than CPUs! (Score:1)
Yes, the CPU market may be the largest slice of the pie, but it is by no means the wh
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This is interesting because there were stories in the last couple days about the market being over supplied while demand falls off a cliff and that this is an industry wide thing.
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