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Comment Re:business model (Score 1) 66

$2 trillion dollars would, on an average ROI of expecting a return on your investment in 20 years thus averaging about 3.5% annual return compounded which is a return you can get pretty safely and handily, require Anthropic to return an average of $100 billion dollars a year to investors, every year, starting immediately.

Anthropic's most recent quarter generated $10 billion... in revenue. It was their only profitable quarter on record, with about half a billion in profit. That quarter obviously does not count all the pirated Chinese models just released that are trying to undercut Anthropic on price.

These investors would fail a middle school math test, yet they somehow temporarily have money to fail a much bigger test.

Comment Re:No good outcomes for Chrome here. (Score 2) 32

Forcing Chrome to be trashed would be one of the best things to happen to the internet. Google's ludicrous monopoly leading to the entire ad industry powering the majority of the internet breaking down because Google just vibes that AI overview is cool bro gets broken in two, and as a bonus the ignorant like you are forced to discover there's vastly better browsers out there than fucking Chrome. Everyone except the trillion dollar worthless shitholes win, even if it makes some vaguely uncomfortable for 10 minutes in doing so.

Comment A short explanation (Score 2) 33

Sodium is just everywhere (obviously) and more importantly for cost efficient long term grid scale usage sodium ion batteries can operate at high temperatures without losing significant capacity. Because charging and discharging isn't perfectly efficient there's heat generate whenever you do either, and in a big box of batteries stuff gets very hot, dis/charge li-ons without expensive AC and you lose capacity fast. Sodium ion batteries operate fine at relatively high temps, you don't need AC, and thus the cost/efficiency of grid scale batteries is better with sodium ion even if they are a good deal heavier than comparable lithium ion batteries.

Comment The Rollercoaster is getting Wild (Score 1, Insightful) 44

Logically a companies stock price might reflect the amount of money a stock holder would expect to get back from owning the stock. If Microsoft were to return every last penny of profit to its stock holders today, and it returns less than a third of its profits now so that will have to change, and somehow continued to earn $35 billion a quarter, and people wanted to earn their money back while holding the stock in 20 years, Microsoft would be worth $2.8 trillion.

That gives you the timeline for doubling your money, assuming the stock is worth the same amount of $ you put in as at the start. If you put the same money into a high yield savings account you'd more than double your money in the same amount of time. Based purely on this people with math skills would put money in the savings account even if Microsoft suddenly gave away all its profits to stockholders, as they'd still earn more money from the savings account.

But Microsoft is worth 11% more than putting your money into a highly safe investment like a high yield savings account, if Microsoft were literally to give all of its money away every quarter for the next 20 years, which they will not. At least it's worth more according to "the market". Why? Well Microsoft's quarterly earning line went up steeper than "the market" expected it to. Which means people now hope that this line will go up steeper again next time over the last time it went higher steeper than people expected it to. And... that's it. Literally that's what "the market" is reacting to, the attention span and math skills of an upper middling third grader with attention span problems. Nevermind that, based on current dividends, Microsoft would need revenues the size of Switzerland to match a high yield savings account in return on investment. The line went steeper, that's what matters!

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