Markets Head Toward Worst First Half of a Year in Decades (wsj.com) 97
Global markets are set to close out their most bruising first half of a year in decades, leaving investors bracing for the prospect of further losses. From a report: Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates have fueled a monthslong rout that left few markets unscathed. The S&P 500 fell 20% through Wednesday, heading for its worst first half of a year since 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investment-grade bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond exchange-traded fund, lost 11% -- on course for their worst start to a year ever. Stocks and bonds in emerging markets tumbled, hurt by slowing growth. And cryptocurrencies came crashing down, saddling individual investors and hedge funds alike with steep losses.
About the only thing that rose in the first half was commodities prices. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, and U.S. gas prices hit records after the Russia-Ukraine war upended imports from Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer. Now, investors seem to be in agreement about only one thing: More volatility is ahead. That is because central banks from the U.S. to India and New Zealand plan to keep raising interest rates to try to rein in inflation. The moves will likely slow down growth, potentially tipping economies into recession and generating further tumult across markets. "That's the biggest risk right now -- inflation and the Fed," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.
About the only thing that rose in the first half was commodities prices. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, and U.S. gas prices hit records after the Russia-Ukraine war upended imports from Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer. Now, investors seem to be in agreement about only one thing: More volatility is ahead. That is because central banks from the U.S. to India and New Zealand plan to keep raising interest rates to try to rein in inflation. The moves will likely slow down growth, potentially tipping economies into recession and generating further tumult across markets. "That's the biggest risk right now -- inflation and the Fed," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Insightful)
Still, in retrospect, does it make me second-guess not trying to time the market and sell out sometime last year? Yeah, kinda.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Insightful)
When it was cancelled 90 of 1200 miles of pipeline for Keystone XL were built. Do you really believe 1110 miles of pipeline would be built in 2 years and operating fully? You are a patriot.
Also it was detemined by several prelminary studies that most of the oil coming out Keystone XL would have been destined for export for both economic and logistical reasons (the dirty tar sand crude it was meant to export has more compatible refineries elsewhere)
So stop with the dishonest framing of Keystone XL as some giant Biden misstep that is the cause of all our woes, there are actual issues to take up with him but that is not it. That whole project was a boondoggle from the start and even if Biden hadn't cancelled it it would not be pumping right now and it would not be making an impact on prices at the pump.
Fact is the prediction from analysts is that in the next 12-18 months the US will be pumping more gas and crude than it ever has in history.
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The pipeline was stuck in litigation. It was less than even odds that it would get built, regardless of what any guy sitting in the White House would say.
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Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Insightful)
Anticipated in service: 2023 [keystonexl.com]
Do you live in some parallel universe?
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Yea, there are always delays, things lie pandemics, labour shortages, not too mention litigation. How many large projects come in on schedule?
The Trans-Mountain pipeline from Alberta to the coast just keeps getting delayed and the price has tripled or more, all to ship raw oil as there is no refining capacity for it or the Keystone.
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One good example, the Keystone XL pipeline would be pumping 800,000 barrels of oil a day today if Biden hadn't stopped it on his first day in office.
Probably not. In March 2020 (when Trump was in office) 2023 was the estimated completion date. And just over 90 miles of 1,200 had been completed by the time is was canceled in 2021. From Reviving the Keystone XL Pipeline Is Economically Pointless [peoplespolicyproject.org]
When TC Energy announced in March 2020 that it was resuming construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, they estimated that it would “enter service in 2023.” ... When Biden revoked the permit on January 20, 2021, TC Energy completed just over 90 miles of a pipeline supposed to extend across 1,200 miles.
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fostered a healthy economy
At the expense of the national debt. Despite a 'healthy' economy, the annual deficit grew by about 50% from his first year to his last (non-covid) year. He borrowed to finance his 'healthy' economy, and stuck us with the bill, which is exactly how he operated his businesses.
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Trump almost started an unnecessary war with Iran and furthered their nuclear program. The economy was kind of a disaster by the end of his term in part due to his lack of leadership on COVID.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Insightful)
You and those like you are the reason we're in this mess
No, the pandemic, the global reaction to it, the resulting supply crunch, and now the regional war in Europe are "the reason we're in this mess". The US is not the the be-all and end-all of the entire global economy.
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Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Insightful)
Trump had different underlying situations on many fronts. And you know that.
If Trump faced what Biden is facing, what would he have done differently?
Probably the only real difference would have been to roll over for Putin on Ukraine
So, economically, we *might* be better off. Ukrainians would be worse off.
We would have an autocrat in office seeking to increase his power.
Americans would be worse off.
Can you admit you were wrong? Do you have a line?
It seems pretty clear at this point that Trump worked very hard at attempting to hold on to the Presidency despite loosing and knowing he lost the 2020 election.
Please, for the sake of the United States, stop loving Trump so blindly that you will screw up everything for everyone.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Funny)
should stop pushing the vaccine
Oh this one is always hilarious.
As Trump supporters something you should actually be shouting from the godamn rooftops as something to credit Trump for is Operation Warp Speed which actually worked pretty damned well and honestly deserves credit but you are all too stupid to take some credit for the thing that literally got us out of the pandemic.
I almost feel bad giving you a good piece of advice but fuck already let that shit go its done
Re: Thanks Biden (Score:2)
Everything you just said flies in the face of all the available data, all the decades of medical knowledge and precedent and all from multiple countries the world over. We can deal with the other missteps in response separately.
You better have solid evidence because those are heavy claims and a bunch of nitpicks, technicalities, disparate theories and feelings ain't gonna cut it.
Either it actually works or you have to resort to a global coordinated conspiracy, that's the choice you're left with.
You don't h
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lol sure pal. SF who this entire has a max hospitalization rate of, 286 people. Crazy!
Taiwan, an extremely dense country had its worst spike of deaths at... 211, out of population of 24 million people and its dropping rapidly.
You're really going to use Taiwan as an example, a shining pandemic success story, a country of 24 million people has limited deaths to around 6500 wheras just Florida with the same population as Taiwan is closing in on 80,000 deaths.
Fact is I know you dont have strong evidence of t
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You're talking to a retarded piece of shit. These magats are brainless fucks.
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Probably the only real difference would have been to roll over for Putin on Ukraine
This is what the con artist recently said [imgur.com] on the Fox tabloid when asked what he would do about Russia's war against Ukraine if he were in office.
And for all you down mods, remember, these are his exact words, words of a stable genius.
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Most American's can't point Ukraine on the map if their life depended on it. So I doubt that Ukraine staying on good terms with Russia woul
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Insightful)
"Ukrainians are very much better off now, dying by the 100s."
I am assuming you are being sarcastic. It is possible that under Trump the Ukrainian's would have fewer deaths.
But that is only because they would be part of Russia. They dont seem to like that option, by and large.
And I dont really buy the "Peace in our time" logic.
"I don't know if Trump would do this or not, but the desirable direction for Ukraine was to remain neutral because Russia did not want Ukraine to join NATO"
Sure, but at any cost? And while noises were made about Ukraine joining NATO, nothing had some to pass.
And *why* did they want to join NATO? Because they wanted protection from Russia.
Another point. Russia didnt want Ukraine joining NATO. So what? Should Russia ( or any country ) always get what they want?
"And for those who do not know, Ukraine has a larger border with Russia than with US."
So? We should only help people we have borders with? In this Trumpian alternate universe,what happens to the other Baltic states after Russia is done with Ukraine? You and I both know they would be next. I dont know if you will admit it.
"Pissing off one's neighbors is rarely a path to the peaceful existence."
If your neighbor is determined to subjugate you, what other choice do you have?
"Most American's can't point Ukraine on the map if their life depended on it"
Agreed.. I could have, but that is neither here nor there. I'm not clear on why that is important.
"So I doubt that Ukraine staying on good terms with Russia would have impacted them in a bad way."
I dont believe there was any path that kept Ukraine independent and Russia happy.
"But now they would have to pay extra taxes to pay the $40+ billions that US is spending on supporting this war. Not sure if they are better off from it."
Their economy is messed up, they have lots of dead people. Damage from all the fighting that has and will happen.
Should they roll over and not defend themselves?
"One thing I agree with you about, is the Trump trying to hold on to the presidency was an idiotic move"
Yup.
"But Trump was not a bad president as far as presidents go"
Trump, in my opinion, is the worst president we have ever had. Economically, things were OK.
They were OK, and on the rise when he entered office. So, was it his policies, or would it have happened anyway.
He did start work on the Covid vaccines.
He also tried to downplay Covid, saying it was no worse than a bad flu.
He scrambled our foreign relationships to many different ways from Sunday
He attempted to influence the investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 election
He misstated ( lied ) about what was in the Mueller report.
He didnt do us any favors with NATO.
He took us out of the Paris accords on climate change.
He antagonized anyone who was liberal ( he was president for everyone, he should have acted the part ( no, he didnt have to agree with liberals, but just act like a damn actual president ) )
He did reset the relationship with China. That needed doing. And needs to go further
He did not put his affairs in a blind trust. That is a conflict of interest
He did not release his tax returns. I know that is not a legal requirement, but it makes me suspicious
He expanded both the federal budget deficit and the national debt.
He reversed several climate related policies put in under Obama.
How many people and agencies did he pressure or attempt to pressure into doing his bidding?
He lied about so many things. National security is important, but so many things were seeking office or prestige.
He incited the 1/6 Capitol riots. The more that comes out, the more it looks like attempted insurrection.
He attempted to pressure states to return "alternate slates" of electors.
He attempted to pressure election officials to return results that were incorrect
After the election ( to date, if I am not mistaken ) he refused to accept the
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I'm still mad at biden for issuing the 3rd stimulus, it was totally unnecessary. I hold no party affiliation and am a moderate.
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I'm still mad at biden for issuing the 3rd stimulus
The 3rd stimulus was actually Trump's idea (when he Tweeted that everyone should get a total of $2,000), and Biden ran with it as a show of bipartisanship.
By now, all the stimulus money has long since been spent. We're dealing with inflation because the supply chain still isn't back up to pre-pandemic levels, and wages are up slightly due to the labor shortage.
Re: Thanks Biden (Score:3)
It's weird, and maybe you're the exception, but I haven't heard of anyone giving the money back, who professes to be upset about the stimulus checks.
And yes, anyone can make a direct donation to the Treasury, if they feel that strongly about it.
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Biden is a sock puppet. If anybody is responsible, it's whoever's hand is up his ass.
All the Democrats in Congress helped a lot, too.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Interesting)
I believe that US and Biden is responsible for the economic situation in most of the world and certainly in europe, by pushing Russia to start a war with Ukraine. This has not started with the current administration but was going on since 2008 if not earlier. By dangling NATO carrot in front of Ukraine the US indirectly started this war. The war caused a lot of rising prices for energy and other commodities. Russia many times indicated that admitting Ukraine to NATO is unacceptable and is a red line that should not be crossed. But US was not changing the directions just to "stick it to Russia and to Putin". I guess the Russian war with Georgia because of the same reason was not taken as an indicator of anything.
If I am reading the situation correctly, before Ukraine joins NATO it will become a bunch of rubble and ash. If Ukrainian government was concerned about their people, they would start negotiations before the war started and certainly now as soon as possible. The longer this drags on the worse their position will be.
But as prominent political scholars indicated, this is not going to happen because of US pressure on Ukraine to continue this war. The economic situation will not improve and inflation will not improve until this war is over. And we all will be lucky if this does not turn into world war 3.
If you want to understand what is going on just watch this lecture https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Insightful)
The economic crisis is another thing that was waiting to happen. The war exacerbated it, but it's not the sole cause. Inflation was already on the rise before the war started, there were supply chain issues, and in the past years both the US and the EU have been printing vast sums of money.
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Get your head checked, magat.
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Try listening to Milton Friedman's analysis of what causes inflation. Low interest rates, higher wages and higher taxes. Also the Federal Reserve endlessly printing money. This has been happening for decades. Knuckle draggers assume it's Biden but we were in line for this for several years.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Insightful)
Aside from the fact that this economic downturn is happening on a global scale, I always find it funny that Republican voters never seem willing to admit that they could've selected someone other than a petulant 2AM-Tweeting manchild in the primaries, and the Democrat electorate would've collectively slept through the 2020 election (as is typically the case).
But nope, you just had to go with the obnoxious divisive populist that people either love or can't stand, then you're all surprised Pikachu when the majority votes him out because they're simply tired of the drama.
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Aside from the fact that this economic downturn is happening on a global scale
Don't pretend the US is a small fish in a big pond. The US is the elephant in the pool, downturn in America *caused* downturn for the rest of the world.
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Seattle has approval voting on the ballots (initiative 134)! (Approval voting ballots look the same as today's ballots, but you can vote for as many as you want on each issue, not just for one.) If the Republicans had had that during the 2016 primaries, I rather doubt they would have selected the same presidential candidate.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:5, Informative)
Joe Biden managed to fuck up the entire global economy. I guess he really is the most powerful man in the world. If I were you, I'd be afraid. With that level of omnipotence must come equal omniscience, and he's likely hunting you down for daring to call him senile. Best get off the Internet, smash your computer and pull the battery out of your phone, and start eating grass and small mammals somewhere a hundred miles from civilization. Be sure to visit the dentist first, you know, and get ready for a basket ball to be your only friend. Which is probably one more than you have right now, living in your parents's basement.
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You're funny when there a lot of countries more fiscally responsible than the USA not having the massive inflation problem we are (and yes I have list if you're too lazy to look )
Biden has fucked up the U.S. economy with massive money injection coupled with throttling fossil fuel. We are 25 percent the world's GDP, did you forget?
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Oh yes, give us the list. Because I'm always convinced when someone says "research the supporting evidence for my argument yourself."
Lazy ass little troll.
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Hahah said the too lazy to do search. Of course I have the link, I put in other post. June one out soon too.
https://www.icaew.com/insights... [icaew.com]
Countries with sane fiscal policy doing much better than USA which was 8.3% at that time.
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Yes, those 5%+ inflation rates are so reasonable in comparison to the generally cited 2% figure that they should be at.
Of course, June will be better for European countries, right?
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June will be much worse for USA, and several european countries with sane fiscal policy will have less than USA. That's the only point. But Biden will say "oh it's GLOBAL, most countries have more, blah blah blah, also It's PUTIN, and it's the PANDEMIC" and all his other miserable excuses continuing to shirk responsibility and not come up with any plan or direction, only saying things will get worse as he and do-nothing Democrat congress does nothing.
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More to the point Joe says it's "Russia Russia Russia!" when inflation going up for a year, long before Russia. Because of Biden's money injection and energy hostile policies. He's a disaster and a failure, voters have had enough of his garbage and of the Democrats "be woke till we're broke" nonsense and lawlessness.
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Biden's? Trump signed CARES [steptoe.com]. Then Trump signed CARES 2 [npr.org].
You seem to forget that Biden came into office in 2021, not when the money injections were signed. Build Back Better was never passed, moron.
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Haven't forgotten anything, Biden's injection was the badly timed unnecessary one that overheated economy.
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Wait, what precisely was "Biden's injection"? Which law and/or package that Biden signed was the one that overheated the economy? Because the two that actually passed were both, again, signed by Trump.
I provided links. You should be able to too.
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Hahaha
You're seriously not knowing I'm talking about Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending bill that is now 90% dispersed?
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No, you're seriously mistaking who signed CARES and CARES 2, which were both signed by Trump. You can't even provide a link to a spending bill which was signed after January 20, 2021, can you?
Very sad.
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CARES 1 and 2 didn't put unnecessary money into economy and overheat it.
So you do know about the Biden $1.9 trillion that has been 90 percent disbursed. Why do I need to provide link? The damage from that is being done, argument is over and you lost.
Re:Thanks Biden (Score:4, Funny)
Joe Biden managed to fuck up the entire global economy. I guess he really is the most powerful man in the world.
I'm sure it's just a coincidence.
It's not like sending more money out to get people to produce fewer goods and services could cause prices to rise or lower workforce participation or anything. That's just crazy talk!
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Wow, I didn't realize that the CARES Act was sending payments out to the entire world. Those damn Europeans are cashing American checks. Thanks Donald J. Trump! [steptoe.com] Thanks twice over! [npr.org]
Lord you people are morons.
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All the downmodding in the world won't change the fact that Trump is the one who signed off on those payments, and they don't explain the economic condition of the rest of the world. I'll just be reposting as often as necessary now.
Wow, I didn't realize that the CARES Act was sending payments out to the entire world. Those dam
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No, I think this time it was a different asshole that started a pointless war, for a change it wasn't the POTUS.
Kardashian follies next? (Score:2)
There is no point posting non-nerd content on Slashdot except as space filler so of course that's what we get. Whoever owns Slashdot gives no fucks about killing a once-techy site.
No one not interested in the economy does not track it through appropriate news sites so what is that shit doing on Slashdot?
Who besides msmash thinks it belongs here and why was it MORE important than techy content?
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I think the nerd/tech angle is:
1. Build time machine.
2. Invest in oil.
3. Profit!
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--Oh, STFU. Most of us here have a retirement plan, and personally I've lost almost $8k in the last 8 months. This definitely falls under "Stuff That Matters" - it indicates things will likely get worse financially before they get better.
We've been keeping inflation down (Score:2)
Right now that something else is "Austerity", which means we all take pay cuts. Personally I'd like to see our gov't try something else besides soaking the middle class. The YouTube channel "Some More News" had some good suggestions.
invest for long term (Score:5, Insightful)
The high inflation of the 1970s in the 1980s actually made my family a good chunk of change. Interests rates are rising, so there are places that you can get a secure CD for 9%. For the active investor it makes sense that money is moving to less risky positions.
The S&P 500 doubled between March 2020 - Dec 2 (Score:4, Insightful)
The S&P 500 doubled between March 2020 and December 2021. Now we are seeing a correction. There was always going to be a violent reaction to US interest rates increasing, signalling the end of a decade of borrowing cheap money.
We were seeing ridiculous valuations of companies, such as Coinbase being worth more than BP (April 2021). Now Coinbase is worth $10B and BP is worth $90B. A little bit of sanity is returning to the stock market.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bus... [bbc.co.uk]
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Now Coinbase is worth $10B and BP is worth $90B. A little bit of sanity is returning to the stock market.
That being said, Coinbase is still probably wildly overvalued. The crypto values have been dropping like a rock, as have NFT values.
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Interestingly, Coinbase dropped 90% of its market cap since April 2021, whilst Bitcoin lost about 60% of its value over the same time period.
Why a website that allowed Bitcoin trading would ever be worth $100B I have no idea. The New York Stock Exchange was sold for $8.2B in 2012, by way of comparison.
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Why a website that allowed Bitcoin trading would ever be worth $100B I have no idea.
Speculation.
One day, we're going to have ransomware on everything from our cars to our smart TVs, and we'll be buying Bitcoin regularly to keep everything chugging along. When that day comes, when you think of ransomware, you'll think of Coinbase.
Just let me know when we hit bottom (Score:1)
Re: Just let me know when we hit bottom (Score:2)
Have you considered Series I savings bonds? They're indexed to inflation and currently paying 9.62%. The rate will be adjusted again in October, but if inflation continues to go up then the rate will go up. [bankrate.com]
The US was energy independent in Jan 2021 (Score:1)
It's Biden's watch. He owns it. Barring a miracle, November will be a wakeup call for his administration
https://instapundit.com/wp-con... [instapundit.com]
They've had it good for a decade (Score:2)
So this isn't unexpected. It's a good thing the politicians aren't trying to 'fix' this downturn. The problem is the debt we have created is going to catch up to us.
Artificial stats based on artificial time windows (Score:3)
The 21% drop in the first half of 2022 is quite a bit. However, it's only impressive in the sense of an artificial stat based on criteria that are irrelevant. Why only the first half of a year, why not the second half, or better yet, any 6-month period? Why 6 months? We've seen several large market drops that were larger but didn't fit the artificial criteria of first half of a year, e.g., the 32% drop from Feb 21 to Mar 20, 2020 or the 42% drop from Jul 21, 2000 to Jan 31, 2003.
The drop is a large drop. However, the narrative that it's unprecedented in recent history is misleading.
Who loses the most? (Score:2)
1%-ers!
THIS is a point most young Slashdotters miss (Score:3)
Boomers and Gen-X folks who've been investing for years are probably not too hurt by this (unless they need to cash out to get some liquid capital right now) and for them the losses are mostly losses of on-paper gains from the previous years (the market shot up something like 50% in Trump's 4 years, a nearly unprecedented gain). Young people who recently left school and entered the workplace, and who made a significant percent of their total investments in the past 18 months, have probably actually lost mon
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Wow...how shocking that this gets posted by an AC. Emphasis on the C.
coward fits quite well, just like your con-man Chump.
You're just not looking at the 'real' economy! (Score:2)
Shell posted adjusted earnings of $9.1 billion for the three months through to the end of March, in line with expectations of analysts polled by Refinitiv. That compared with $3.2 billion over the same period a year earlier and $6.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021. - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/0... [cnbc.com]
BP’s first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, came in at $6.2 billion. Analysts had expected BP to report first-quarter profit of $4.5 billion, according to
Warren Buffett (Score:2)
"If you invest in an index where you don't put the money in at one time, but average in over 10 years--you'll do better than 90% who start investing at the same time" --Warren Buffett (b. 1930)
https://archive.is/hheJt [archive.is]