Predicting the Internet in 1995

Rexdude writes "Here is a list of predictions from 'The Internet' magazine at the end of 1994. It highlights the major changes and events on the net as it was back then (20 million users only, for starters). Seems a throwback to a relatively more innocent time, when the unwashed masses had not taken over the net as much as today. And look at the reverence accorded to long dead protocols like Gopher!"

interesting...

Here is a list of predictions from 'The Internet' magazine at the end of 1994.

So back then the internet was a magazine, eh?

(magazine also happens to be my favorite book)

Yes it was a staple fold magazine, as were...

Web, Net, I-Way, etc... There were tons of dead tree magazines published between 94' to 97' that featured links of what's hot, etc... The proliferation of real search engines that worked pretty much killed that space.

nice "best and worst" for net entertainment

I like how the only thing that's even remotely relevant today is that Nethack is still around and still entertaining. The complaint about the Web's organization has been solved mostly by the fact that there's a lot of stuff you don't want to find anyway!

A few gems in there.

Well I thought this one was particularly prescient:
Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?

A very good question indeed. Pity he didn't pick prosecutors in New York going after posters from Russia... let's hope the question remains unanswered.

It was also interesting how many of the 'big questions' in 1994 are now forgotten. Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are. It went from being a big question, to a decided fact, and then faded into irrelevance. Now there's just "the Internet," and most people don't think about how they connect to it with their modem, if they use a modem at all. I wonder if HD-DVD vs BluRay will look the same way, in 10 years of hindsight?

Re:A few gems in there.

``Like SLIP versus PPP -- now, most people couldn't even tell you what either of them are.''

That may be true, but PPP is still widely used (I don't know about SLIP). I use it when connecting to the Net through my mobile phone. Surfing the web over a GPRS link feels just like the old times. :-)

Missed a few.

> I like how the only thing that's even remotely relevant today is that Nethack is still around and still entertaining.

I dunno. Kenny Greenberg's comments seemed to hit pretty hard:

Worst:

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_Assist ance_for_Law_Enforcement_Act [slashdot.org]
• The Clipper Chip [wikipedia.org] FIPS (Federal Information Processing Standard)
• Obscenity prosecutions of BBSs
• Media hysteria about e-mail stalking and the threat to children on the Internet

Prediction:

• There will be a concerted effort by the U.S. Congress to regulate content on the Internet.

And as a reminder for those of you who got your hopes up in November of 2006 -- you might want to look at who was President in 1994. Hint: His last name wasn't "Bush".

Re:Missed a few.

Argh! You got me with your logic and historical fact!

The only safe bet

There will always be porn on the internet.

Re:Gopher isn't dead!

Gopher rocked. I got on the net in '93 and I loved Gopher. I hated the web until I saw it using Mosaic. But Gopher compared to the early Lynx was no comparison, it was hard to find the links, and it was disorganized. Where Gopher was easy to navigate, and very structured. And then I saw the web with pictures, and I instantly got it.

Re:Gopher isn't dead!

I'm still running a gopher server. Its on an old linux box, but you can't get to it because id doesn't have net access. I also don't have a client for it so i really don't know whats in it.

I think that is where I put my virginity, or a ham sandwitch. Not sure which.

We had one running until 3 months ago

Long dead protocol my ass. We had one running to support a legacy application until a few months ago, when I went through my normal legacy application decommissioning routine:

1) Ask if anyone is using app.
2) No response
3) Turn app off
4) Six months later, turn app back on because it's "mission critical".

So three months and the clock is still ticking....

"Internet Yellow Pages"

I have a book from 1995 or so called "The Internet Yellow Pages" which seems to claim it lists every site on the Internet. It's about two inches thick and arranged by topic. There's sort of an even mix of Usenet newsgroups, gopher sites, telnet, WWW, listserv, and FTP.

from sometime in the late 70's

Frink: I predict that within 100 years computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings in Europe will own them.

Apu: Could it be used for dating?

Frink: Well, technically, yes, but the computer matches would be so perfect as to eliminate the thrill of romantic conquest.

WWW

Under the list Worst in Net Entertainment:

The organization of the World-Wide Web. I love the Web, but finding something specific on it is a nightmare. And because the Web is growing by leaps and bounds, I just don't see things getting easier anytime soon.

How little they knew ...

Re:WWW

Under the list Worst in Net Entertainment:

The organization of the World-Wide Web. I love the Web, but finding something specific on it is a nightmare. And because the Web is growing by leaps and bounds, I just don't see things getting easier anytime soon.

How little they knew ...

None of them predict search engines - because they were a genuine and unexpected innovation. I remember using the Web at around that time - before Yahoo attempted to create a directory, and Altavista produced their webspider-driven search engine. O'Reilly had a small directory of useful sites, but other than that the only way to find pages was by surfing from link to link, or by being given a URL out-of-band.

I believe webspiders, and search engines built around data they collected, were the killer app that made the Web truly useful.

Not much has changed, really

People think it's wonderful how much cool stuff there is out there on the net. Online games are insanely addictive. Major gripes include spam, government regulation and censorship, and how difficult it is to find the information you want. Flamewars over global warming. Seriously, change some of the names (replace Mosaic with Firefox, Nethack with WoW, etc.) and most of what's written here wouldn't raise an eyebrow today. Maybe the only thing that's really changed is that a decade+ ago, these phenomena seemed more worth commenting on.

Re:Not much has changed, really

new (AKA reinvented) things like blogs and AJAX notwithstanding.

Reinvented is right. The "blog" is nothing new; back in 1994 there were probably quite a few of them. Except that lacking the word 'blog,' people just called them 'home pages.' Lots of people used to update their home pages obsessively, just typing in updates to the static HTML from the top down, so older stuff got pushed to the bottom of the page. Eventually when it would get too long, you'd copy and paste it onto a separate page.

What happened, IMO, is that HTML became too complex for the average person to deal with. (This was a combination of the complexity of creating a 'good looking' page increasing, and the technical skill of the average internet user declining.) There was a period of time when personal home pages almost died out, but then blogging software came out and allowed non-technical users to create pages without knowing any HTML.

Similarly, whenever I (have the misfortune to) visit MySpace, it reminds me of the early days of GeoCities and its "free web site" predecessors. Lots of very bad HTML and aesthetically questionable color choices, mostly driven out of vanity.

I think it's pretty safe that no matter where the technology goes, people are always going to want to write about themselves and the stuff they experience on a day to day basis; the tools and technologies for doing that will change, but the drive is always there.

Wow

Andrew, let me have your time traveling machine.

Andrew Kantor
([e-mail])

Best:

* Media coverage. Sure, some of that coverage seems clueless, and some of it focuses; foolishly, but not surprisingly; on the seedier side of the Net (such as pornography and electronic stalkers). But 1994 saw the Internet finally hit the mainstr eam. Time and Newsweek now routinely print letters received through e-mail, and more importantly, it's no longer a novelty. The coverage in magazines on the supermarket check-out line has helped make the other "best" things possible.
* On-line shopping. The other best sign that the Net has hit the mainstream. Flowers, pizza, condoms, lobsters, books, music, and more are available, with other products sure to follow. Small companies can now have the same presence as larger ones. Who cares what neighborhood that bookstore is in?
* No more secrets. With more and more people on-line around the world, it's hard for anyone to get away with anything. Sure, a lot of things make their appearance in alt.conspiracies, but the Net has finally come into its own as a news source for the masses. It's no longer strange to hear, "I heard on the Net that Paul's going to have an affair on 'Mad About You.'"
* New providers, more products, and more books. The Internet is proof that capitalism works, and never has that been shown more than in 1994. Big companies like Netcom and AlterNet compete with local providers like Panix, Pipeline, and the Well. Consumers have more choices than ever in access providers, software, and reading material. As usual, the best succeeded and the rest are ending up on the bargain shelf.

Worst:

* Government intervention. They ruined the railroads and the phone companies, and now they're after the Internet. It works like this: Something is good, and private companies are selling it and making it work. The government decides it's a "right," and subsidizes one of those private companies to give it to people who can't afford it. The subsidized company soon runs the competition out of business and becomes a sponsored, sanctioned monopoly. The process has started with the Internet under the guise of "making the Information Superhighway available to everyone." It may sound good at first, but it's a bad idea. We may look back at 1994 as the beginning of the end of the high-quality Net.
* America Online. It let its users onto the Net with only the barest bit of training or preparation. It provided software that made it difficult for even the most savvy user to behave with proper netiquette. But the worst offense is that AOL, like other major on-line services, is taking from the Internet without giving back. Major providers like Alternet, Netcom, and PSI not only put users on the Net, they make available Gopher servers, FTP-able files, and other resources. AOL, CompuServe, and Prodigy are only just beginning to do that, and to be proper net.citizens they must make more substance available to the rest of the Net.
* Canter and Siegel. A cheap shot, true, but still one of the worst events of 1994. It's more than simply the fact that they annoyed a few million users in more than 100 countries without showing remorse. The almost-disbarred-from-Tennessee lawyers gave the idea to others, and made people see marketing and sales opportunities that simply don't exist.
* Zealots. They're the people who have decided that they have the right to regulate; with threats or force if necessary; what is available on the Net.

Predictions:

* Cancelbot wars. As spamming and the spam-killing cancelbots become more widespread, people will find their Usenet News messages canceled by someone who simply doesn't like them. Cancelbot software will spread, as people begin editing out opposing view

Is this real?

I was on the internet back then, much as, I suspect, a significant portion of slashdot users. The facts seem about right, but the writing makes me wonder if the article is a hoax.

Quite accurate actualy...

I've collected together the "prediction" comments from TFA into a list. Take a look:

1. A World-Wide Web add-on, whereby category and file size can be assessed prior to file transfer, will be proposed.
2. Software that handles virtually all network functions via one seamless interface will emerge and begin to dominate the commercial Internet marketplace.
3. Internet access via ISDN will see a massive growth spurt.
4. A protocol will be developed for smaller interest groups to form larger common-interest federations.
5. UFOs will make contact with the Internet.
6. Cancelbot wars. As spamming and the spam-killing cancelbots become more widespread, people will find their Usenet News messages canceled by someone who simply doesn't like them. Cancelbot software will spread, as people begin editing out opposing views and unfriendly ideas.
7. More secrets. With more and more commerce being conducted through the Net, encryption will become necessary and common. Clipper will die, and something like PGP or ViaCrypt will be used by most people and businesses.
8. Two new standards; the first for dial-in users, the second for commerce. Whether it's a SLIP or PPP process that all access providers will adopt, we'll see easy access in easy-to-use products. A standard also will emerge for secure monetary transactions, using some form of encryption, that will make people comfortable sending credit-card information over the wire.
9. More bandwidth. A new transmission medium will be announced that offers a many-fold increase in speed and savings over the current offerings. An entirely new hardware technology will emerge that will eventually replace the T-3 and fiber-optic lines that carry much of the Net's traffic. Why? Because it must. The Net is overloaded as it is, and necessity has always been the mother of invention. Watch Bell Labs.
10. Smart searches. The first intelligent agent software packages will emerge, allowing Net users to ask for a specific piece of information like "What is the population of Fiji?" or "How far is Saturn from the Sun?" An agent will go out on the Net , find the information, and return it without the user knowing the source.
11. ISDN access will become a common standard for small office and home office access, allowing lots of new applications from conferencing to software distribution.
12. Return of the editors. The CB radio effect; too much noise from too many people; will drive more people to moderated lists and newsgroups.
13. Digital cash will bring home shopping and pay-per-view to the Internet, as well as new forms of asset protection, money laundering, and tax evasion.
14. Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?
15. On-line politics will take off in a big way, with candidates for the 1996 presidential race making their positions available, soliciting funds, debating opponents, and forging postings from each other. Some campaign somewhere will get in trouble over dirty GIFs.
16. Cancelbot wars will erupt on some newsgroups. Some disbarred attorneys will unleash a doomsday bot that cancels every Usenet message that does not refer to their green card services.
17. I have one word for you: connectivity. As the nation unifies into a blob-like Web addict, the roar for faster connectivity will grow deafening. "An ISDN in every wall outlet, and a chicken in every pot!" to quote the precocious William Jennings Bryant.

What's truly amazing is how accurate they are, overall. (At least in spirit if not in exact details, which is understandable.) For instance:

• 2. Yes: web browser.
• 3., 9., 11. and 17. It's an obvious prediction, but bandwidth kept increasing as new technologies were implemented.
• 4. Not so much a 'protocol' but the internet has been adapted to do just that in many different ways.
• 6. and 16. Well newsgroups are no

They were right!

From TFA under predictions:

UFOs will make contact with the Internet.

They were right! [ufoevidence.org]

A Blessing...and a Curse

Worst Internet omen: Home Shopping Channel joins the Internet.

It's interesting to note that the impending eCommerce boom would be considered a "worst omen."

Then, later on...

Commerce on the Internet. Whether it's junk e-mail or inappropriate postings to your favorite Usenet group, commercial ventures are here to stay and are finding the Internet a pretty pleasant place to do business. The good news is that we're the pioneers of this medium and we get to help sculpt it into something we like. The bad news is that some people just aren't listening. Can you really get rich quick, after all?

Now, twelve years on, did we actually get to "sculpt it into something we like" or did the Internet just take on a life of it's own and evolve into the entity that we now have? Also, the answer to the last question in the quote is "Yes...but you can also go broke quick."

Good times

I remember those days well. I had home dial-up at 2400 baud, but it was metered and expensive, and I could only afford 20 hours a month.

Then I discovered that my old university's library catalog had a BBS dial-in interface for anybody with a valid student number (easily skimmed from numerous sources on campus). Buried in the catalog system was a primitive gateway to the library's gopher pages, and while it wouldn't let you enter an arbitrary URI, I was able to find the right sequence of links to me to any gopher site on the net.

Then I found an http-gopher gateway that gave me primitive access to the web. From there I found an nttp-http gateway that gave me access to USENET, including all the binary groups. Jackpot!

Man, I downloaded a lot of free porn that summer.

Not too wrong...

For the most part, they aren't too wrong. Sure they're obsessed with ISDN, but only because it seemed like the only fast internet solution at the time. Other predictions, like better web browsers, were inevitable anyway. And they certainly nailed the fact that the TCP/IP stack would become common equipment in the next generation of OSes.

But they really liked usenet. The web forum has supplanted it, but they didn't really see that. http is the monster protocol that gobbled up almost all of the web functions. One poster talks about an application evolving that encapsulated all of the internet protocols in one easy interface. The modern webbrowser is pretty much that, with webmail, webforums, and built in (but less functional) ftp clients.

There are some predictions that are still up in the air. Do people prefer moderated content? It's hard to say. Sure, lots of people read cnn.com, but lots of people post on unmoderated forums, or use myspace, or other "user-generated" content.

I think the biggest thing they missed was data-mining. They thought people had to be involved in searching for information, in moderating content, etc in a centralized way. Using links, pageviews, user reviews, and user moderation some systems can organize themselves. (This isn't to cast doubt on experts. I still prefer a good editor to 1000 monkeys.)

And I guess one more thing: the whole idea of "everybody" is silly on the net. If a million people use usenet, it's still useful. The fact that ten or a hundred times more people use some sort of webforum is in many ways irrelevant. Both exist side-by-side. The first list on the article listed online Diplomacy as a fun game on the net. It still exists, probably with about the same number of players. Not anywhere near some flashgame sites in traffic, sure, but that doesn't change anything.

Security predictions

Security. The Net and people on it don't have good security yet. Reusable passwords, service providers that just don't care, SMTP port 25; the Net is full of holes that need technical and social fixes.

Just replace "SMTP port 25" and "the Net" with "Windows OS" and you have a prediction for ... year 2070!