The End is Nigh for XP

SlinkySausage writes "Computer makers have been told they'll no longer be able to get Windows XP OEM by the end of this year, despite strong ongoing demand for the OS. Analysts and computer makers are wondering if the move is premature given Vista's ongoing performance and compatibility issues. Dell recently said it would reintroduce XP on a range of machines due to customer demand but Microsoft will only allow this until the end of the year."

Will anyone gain anything from this?

Is it just me or does this move from Microsoft seem rather desperate?
Was Microsofts older versions of Windows phased out this fast too?
I guess the people at Microsoft have a really hard time accepting that many people (and companies!) have gotten comfortable with XP and does not want to get something different. Maybe Microsoft have been taking to long to come with a "new OS" this time?

I think this will definitely be a good thing for those who wish more people would use Linux on the desktop and possible also laptop market. People like Mark Shuttleworth and his fanboys can start cheering already.
I myself am no longer so certain that getting everyone to use Linux is what is best for Linux as a whole right now.
My main reason for thinking this is seeing how little Ubuntu contributes to the rest of the "open-source community".
Maybe I am wrong, in that case I would love to hear why.

I gladly leave the picking up of unsatisfied Windows users to other flavors of Linux, I myself prefer to stick with Gentoo and wish that all the developers at Gentoo would realize that Gentoo just isn't and is not supposed to become an "click and go" OS.

Others who will cheer at this news will probably be those trying to earn some money by selling cracked software, only this time people are not going to come to them to get the newest software but will want the "good old XP". I don't think they care much though, as long as they can make money.
Maybe there will even become a real market for buying and selling those XP-licenses that people have lying around?

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

My main reason for thinking this is seeing how little Ubuntu contributes to the rest of the "open-source community".

I don't know how much Ubuntu developers/official people contribute to the community directly (whatever that means), but because there are thousands of people moving to Linux because Ubuntu exists (Ubuntu is what got me to switch), there is a large increase of patches (most software on Ubuntu isn't Ubuntu exclusive), guides + FAQs + community help (which makes Linux and more user-friendly), bug reports, and a greater exposure to Linux in general. How is that a little contribution to the community?

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

If you want to see the ubuntu community's (best?) contribution just head over to irc.freenode.net #ubuntu; people are always willing to help with the most common, mundane questions you can think of. I don't know why people are so keen to spoon-feed people FAQ responses, but spoon-feed they do, and I think it's vital for beginners (though for more experienced people it does mean the non-trivial questions are drowned out).

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Seems like you need some new hardware before software anyway - your period key is broken..

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

You're kidding, right? Someone sitting on an IRC channel helping newbies (like me, who has switched completely to Ubuntu at home), that's one of the pillars of the tech support model for open source software. Someone helps me with a problem, then as I gain experience, maybe I can pay it forward, increasing good will toward FOSS.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Amen to that. Any time I have a critical problem I can't resolve by cruising the web, I visit an irc channel. I ask my question, and usually no one answers the first time. So I answer a few newbie questions. Eventually, someone who knows the answer often comes along. So I get what I need, and I give something back to the community. Not everyone does that, but as long as there are some of us who will answer more questions than we ask, the system can continue to work.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Well it's better than the elitist guys that tell you to RTFM and turn people off from linux based OSs.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Not forgetting the things that were developed specifically for / by ubuntu and are now available to the wider linux community (eg upstart).
That's the great thing about linux though, there's room for user friendly distributions like [k|x]ubuntu as well as distributions aimed at people who are allergic to sunlight, like gentoo. (I've used both distributions, liked both very much, and have stuck with one. No, I'm not saying which...)

Dr. Death strikes again.

Bill Gates is software's Dr. Death. It doesn't matter what the customer wants; Bill Gates, the richest man in the world, wants more money, and will drag everyone through his neurosis.

Microsoft's business model is to do what hardware manufacturers want. Hardware manufacturers want operating systems that can't run on old computers, so customers will be forced to buy new computers. Sometimes it has seemed to me that Microsoft is not really primarily a software company, but primarily an abuse company that accomplishes abuse through software.

Windows XP was not really stable until Service Pack 2 was released. Before that, Windows XP was full of grief for administrators. Service Pack 2 contained something like 330 documented fixes, if I remember correctly, and I verified that there were fixes that were not documented. Now Microsoft wants people to go through that again??? With a Service Pack 0 release?

Someone said that Microsoft's motto is "The whole world is our beta test site." The entire reason people wanted to migrate away from Windows 98 is that it has an unstable file system, and artificial limits to system resources. Otherwise, many companies would have wanted to stay with their old systems, because employees often run a very limited set of software packages.

Managers in a company that has a virtual monopoly, like Microsoft, may think that the way to make more money is never to release a good product, so that customers will always want more.

Eventually, I think, more and more companies and universities and governments will decide they don't like expensive, stupid, forced upgrade cycles, and will migrate to a managed distribution of Linux like Ubuntu.

The problem with Linux and BSD has always been that developers don't like to document what they have developed. Sometimes user-friendly GUIs and documentation can be 80% of the work, and that work isn't done very well by people who "just want to program".

Linux distributions need a manager like Mark Shuttleworth [markshuttleworth.com] of Ubuntu. Developers don't like to manage their own work, as Mark said he has discovered. The Linux kernel has a manager, Linus Torvalds, and the rest of Linux needs a manager, also.

I have several times offered to help document open source software, but my offer has always been refused. Apparently there is a strong attachment to doing things the old way. Apparently there is a feeling that someone who writes the documentation will get too much credit, even though I did not expect to have my name on what I wrote.

Changing to any new operating system tends to be expensive because of the re-training required. Good top management could help design methods of easing that transition by coordinating the details that tend to be forgotten when no one is really in charge.

Re:Be kind to Bill Gates

Through the Gates foundation, Bill Gates has donated billions of dollars to worthy charities around the world. It provides 17% of the world's polio eradication budget, as well as other monies for vaccines and HIV research. On the education front, the foundation has donated over a billion dollars to various scholarship programs to help needy students. The Wikipedia has a list of its other activities.

It's also invested in companies that are polluting and causing health problems. [latimes.com] And they have announced in so many words that they will not be reviewing their investment portfolio for abuses like the ones detailed in the LA Times article linked above, because it would be an onerous process.

This is closely akin to washing oil off some ducks while christening a new oil tanker and sending it off to do its part in polluting the globe. Except it's more personal.

The simple fact, backed up by the fact that the foundation will not be ensuring that their investments are not killing people, is that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is not about helping people. Period, the end. It's about power. Bill gets to continue to be in control of all that money, and he buys himself PR with it. But he's still sitting on more money than he could ever spend! Charity is still appreciated regardless of the situation, but if you're not actually putting yourself to any hardship - not even the small amount of hardship needed to make sure that your money isn't killing people that you claim to be trying to save - then I'm not fucking impressed. And nor should be anyone else.

Did you get paid to prop up Mr. Gates, or are you just easily led?

Re:Who Wants To Move Apartments Every Year?

Your post is the story of my life.

I'm so weary of the constant change.

You can never "master" anything before it is obsolete and time to move on.

After five or six of these iterations, I'm losing interest in mastering anything and withdrawing from computing. I've gone from being a developer to being a project manager (a stable field with a set of rules you can master). I've switched my entire software stack except everquest to open, multi-os software packages that will not be forcibly obsoleted.

I KNOW that some will go obsolete. Heck, if you offer me something 10 times as good, I might upgrade.

But Microsoft seems to be offering 1% to -10% "improvement" to someone like me and they want to force me into a subscription model.

I just want to do artwork, word processing, record/process audio, play shows. XP does all that. Linux does all that. The only software holding me to XP at this time is Everquest and I'm very close to leaving that behind for the same reasons. Every six months there is another expansion which invalidates everything you have done before.
After having six sets of gear invalidated, you start to lose interest in getting on the ride again. And suffering through another three months of flagging to open up parts of the software that you are already paying for.

I agree- I want a nice house that I can polish. not a new house every year that has a new host of problems.
When is life going to stabilize again? I can't see security out more than 2 or 3 years into the future. It makes me weary.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Ubuntu is nice, but not without issues. I spent 4 hours 'fixing' my computer after trying to install Ubuntu. It only took 10 mins to break my computer with the Ubuntu installer. As it where, I have a Dell XPS with 2 160GB HD's raided (stripping) and 1 250GB with nothing on it. I wanted to simply install Linux on the 250GB and leave windows on my Raid drive. However, allowing the Ubuntu auto installer from the LiveCD go, it screwed up my MBR, in which after installation and reboot you get a GRUB error 21 (unknown error) or "Could not load operating system" if I change the raid/standard hd drive over in my bios.

Installation, RAID, MBR and such problems are still mostly seen by the relatively geeky, since Joe Somebody usually doesn't install an OS, but simply uses it (although this might be changing). There are still some showstoppers in the use of Ubuntu, and that is far worse than installation problems. I moved my sister to Ubunbu Dapper a while ago, and all looked fine. The few times I tested her common peripherals (mostly the digital camera with a USB cable), all was fine. But she's been complaining lately that her digital camera doesn't work half the time. Sometimes she plugs it in, and gets a nice "Import pictures" dialog, some other times, nothing happens. She says it's about 50/50, and she manages to import her pictures with perseverance. However, failure of such a "basic" feature (by her standards) is unacceptable, and that's what triggers complaints to me, as I am responsible for her move to Ubuntu.

Hot plugging of USB devices still seem to be a problem on some Linux distros (I experience some problems with my USB and mp3 player on Fedora 6 too, but I'm not the type to complain, nor do I have anyone to complain to). USB has been the "hot new technology to have" for a while now, and the average user wants it. As long as USB support isn't 99.9999% perfect, it's gonna be a huge problem.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

Was Microsofts older versions of Windows phased out this fast too?

In the past, when a new version of Windows came out, there was no real need to phase out the old Windows - people wanted the newest version when they bought a new PC.

I guess this is a rather new situation for Microsoft (at least in the OS business.)

Now, it wouldn't seem that it should matter much to MS as long as someone pays the license, but I guess in the long run it could cost them money, not just from prolonged support, but people who already have a version of XP at home could start looking for an OS-less PC when they upgrade and just install what they have since drivers would undoubtedly be available for that hardware and not just Vista/nextGreatestOS.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

I guess this is a rather new situation for Microsoft (at least in the OS business.)

The same happened with ME, I think - they'd reached the end of what they could do with the Windows 95 codebase, and they recognized that and moved to XP "Home" for the next consumer release. As an upgrade from Windows 2000, XP wasn't any better than Vista from XP, so it was probably only XP Home that saved them from this last time around.

If they'd delivered the Vista they were busy telling everyone about 5 years ago, they would have had some significant changes to upgrade to, but almost everything of note was dropped and they've gone and released a confusing array of different versions of Vista, all crippled in different ways. Is it any wonder that noone wants it?

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

>In the past, when a new version of Windows came out, there was no real need to phase out the old Windows - people wanted the newest version when they bought a new PC.

That's just revisionist bullshit, IMO. When XP came out, everybody was bitching about how it was a lamed-down 2000, with ugly interface, stupid features, etc., and claimed that they wouldn't use it until at least 2 service packs came out. Now everybody likes (as much as it's possible) XP and complain about Vista in exactly the same manner.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

That is only true if you were going from 2000 to XP. The vast majority of users were going from 98/ME to XP and after the disaster of ME, they welcomed it.

But there was something else going during these switches that wasn't present with Vista, The hardware market had made so many advances that some popular software needed the increase power to run on so people were happy to buy new computers to get the extra performance. Right now, they are just replacing them or getting new ones. This incentive isn't there and from the way it looks, it would be a sideways if not downwards move if someone upgraded to new hardware with Vista pre-installed.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

I'm not normally a grammer nazi, but I assume English is not your first language, so here's a few suggestions

I'm not normally a grammer nazi, but I assume English is not your first language, so here are a few suggestions

:-)

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this?

I completely agree, but let's put ourselves in a new Linux user's shoes. This person heads out and posts on a few forums looking for help choosing a distribution. Who should they listen to? Everyone has "their distro" and they will most likely sell it to them up and down, even offering to help them get it set up (if needed) but they fail to assess the person asking the question and what their needs are.

What is needed is a Linux "Grading" or a distribution focus map. Let Windows users that just want a working distro out of the box with little to no install option open a webpage, and click the easy button. Meanwhile, categorically list the other distributions, their focus (or intended user) and let the person make an informed decision.

Unfortunately, at the same time as this happens, the zealots have to realize that their distro may not be the crowning achievement of Linux that they hoped and build their module to work with several distributions easily. If this transferability between distros cannot be accomplished, said program should be classified as niche and not recommended to the average user.

This of course relies on the fact that all the distributions stop fighting each other and work together in some manner. It's like urban America out in the Linux world in some respects.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

Eventually, as it always happens, there will be bug releases and new drivers for Windows Vista. Upgrading to them is as easily as doing "Windows Update." Linux (and BSD) distros will never be this easily patched due to the very nature of being open source. I only have to go to 1 web site to update my PC's - Windows Update - and it's incredibly simple - just click on Update and voila, it's done and everything works.

Really? Try doing that with non-MS software or you do not use any?

AutoDesk or Maya or OpenOffice or Turbo Tax or any other application you can think of that is not MS. Can you use Windows Update and it is incredibly simple?

Linux distros are MUCH easier to patch because they are open source and because they are distributions not just bare-bone OS. Last I checked, I could update my Debian boxes with just aptitude or apt-get. And any non-Debian software usually has their own archive or provides a deb file. And installing a deb file is usually easier than installing a .msi installation. And with the great new way that Vista works, the .msi files that require admin rights with custom actions may not run like they did in XP or older systems. (no more "and"s!)

Yes, I'm speaking from experience in all of these areas.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

For the Fedora users:
yum -y update

For Windows Users
Run Windows Update
Do you want to reboot now?
Later...
Do you want to reboot now?
Later...
Do you want to reboot now?
Oops I'm away from my desk for five minutes.
Come back. WHere's all my stuff!

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

The trick is the way you answer. The first dialog asks if you want to reboot now or later. Don't answer. It'll then not bug you to reboot and you won't risk an auto reboot.

So in essence...

you should respond to the windows update just the way you respond to your gf.

Re:So in essence...

mod parent +5 funny; as if anyone at /. has a girlfriend..

Re:So in essence...

Some of us are married. What rating does that get us? :)

+5 Drunk

Re:So in essence...

Well, what if she comes at me with Girlfriend Genuine Advantage?

Re:So in essence...

Well, what if she comes at me with Girlfriend Genuine Advantage?

You mean when she searches in your nightstand and under your bed every time she comes over to make sure you haven't violated the EULA?

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

It's actually not new for Vista. XP also just places it on a timer, and when that runs out, shows the reminder again. And if you don't do anything and then go home from work, it auto-reboots. So XP share this behavior. Actually, the only thing Vista does is improve things a little, because it at least let you set the timer to 4 hours, which is far more than XP's 15 minutes or whatever it might be. (not configurable from an UI at least)

To resolve this auto-reboot behavior which is a very strange default, given it can cause dataloss, simply (in XP and Vista alike) set the Windows Update client to only auto-download updates, not install them. The problem with forced reboots after a while only happens if the updates have already been installed.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

I don't reboot into Windows often now. But when I do, I really need to get some work done. I always end up installing all the critical MSFT patches (except IE7 (my work site requires an activeX component that is incompatible with IE7) & that program that wants to see if I'm a thief).

The problem is the pestering for a reboot and the automatic reboot if I don't press a button within 2 minutes (or is it one minute?).

I leave my windows software doing a nice simple task (that usually takes ~15 minutes), walk off to take a break, and come back to my Ubuntu login screen. The first couple times did this I really thought I either had a hardware error or my rendering software had actually forced a reboot somehow.

I can't freakin' believe that an OS can force a mandatory reboot unless I answer a prompt within a set time period. Second of all, I can't believe that they haven't gotten enough complaints to patch it as of yet.

Why? If they really need a reboot to install their software, why can't they just download it when we tell them it's okay, and then just do the install at the next reboot? Do they really think there are windows desktops that don't get rebooted for 6 months or longer?

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

The business desktop version of Vista by default reboots without asking permission at 3am after receiving an update. After all, the computer can't be doing anything useful in the middle of the night, right?

I found out when it rebooted near the end of a week long calculation I was making.

Overall, my impression of Vista has been positive -- on the scale for MS Windows releases. It continues MS's unbroken track record of mediocrity. I've encountered some of the problems people have reported on Vista, although in most cases they aren't really a bad as people say. Other problems that people have feared are just figments of their imagination. You can rip CDs to MP3s and copy the files around. At least for now.

But the lesson they haven't learned is illustrated by the automatic reboot: they haven't learned how to stay out of the user's way. They may have copied some of the MacOS eye candy but they haven't copied is the philosophy of leaving the user in charge. Unix based desktops vary greatly in their usability. Some of them can be cluttered, or cryptic. But they always stay out of the user's way. The irony of Windows was all those years where MS supporters sneered at MacOS as being a childish toy, but Windows is the only desktop environment that patronizes its users.

I'd grade Vista as a solid C, where XP got a C, 2000 got a B, NT 4 a D. MS was aiming for a B, improving XPs security the way 2000 improved NT 4's stability, but early signs are not promising in that regard. It is also a bit buggier still than a released operating system should be, but not intolerably so. But unless you have a specific documented concern, for instance if you have an extensive DRM'd video collection you want to play out of your video card, I don't think there is a reason for Windows users to panic because they have to use XP.

The only people who clearly ought to be irritated by this are IT people, for whom it makes a lot of work and expense. If Vista delivers on promises of greater security (questionable yet), then it will have been worth their while.

Re:Will anyone gain anything from this? Not Linux

Another way is to click on the reboot modal dialog box in an morse code pattern that says "SOS" (that's 3 longs, 3 shorts, 3 longs), then pull out our keyboard connector and wistle Dixie into the thus freed port and finally turn your chair 3 times counter-clockwise, click your heels and say "i wish i was back in Munich".

This is not documented anywhere but i heard it from a guy who knows a guy whose father-in-law used to work with someone whose sister worked at Microsoft, so it must be true.