Bill Gates: Cellphone will Beat iPod 1017
93,000 writes "CNN is running an article featuring Gates' prediction that the iPod is on the way out. From the article: 'As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run.' His prediction for a successor? Mobile phones-- powered by none other than Windows Mobile 5.0, of course."
40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:5, Insightful)
But I'm sure Apple would be fools not to follow Gates' prediction, after all Microsoft is the leader in innovation.
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:5, Interesting)
Exactly, streaming bandwidth changes everything. (Score:5, Interesting)
The one thing that will set a huge fire on wireless devices will be fast and very cheap networking. Hopefully WiFly will do it. But if not there's other possibilities. It's just a matter of time.
When it does arrive, say like 1Meg bidirectional for twenty bucks a month, everybody will have one and they'll just stream all of their media from their home PC.
But at that point the margins will be too low for either Apple or Microsoft. Instead, the handsets will probably have your telco's logo and be made by the zillion by Golden Gragon Ltd contract mega manufacturers, Shen Zhen China. They won't need more than a tiny bit of local storage since you'll keep everything at home. The rest of it wil just be a few chips and an antennae in a piece of plastic.
The best part is that they'll be all over India and Brazil and the Ukraine just as fast as they hit the US. Globalization isn't all bad.
Re:Exactly, streaming bandwidth changes everything (Score:3, Interesting)
Philips has signed an agreement with Microsoft to integrate Windows Media into its chip designs for set-top boxes, PVRs, HDTV, portable media players, cell phones, the works:
Philips, Microsoft Seal Software Deal [ecommercetimes.com]
Design and Apple (Score:3, Insightful)
So imagine doing the convergence that gates is talking about but with Apple's design people running the show. Imagine a device slightly smaller than comparable products with elegan
Re:Design and Apple (Score:3, Insightful)
seriously, the organizational structure and the interface to the ipod is damn near perfect. extremely long battery life, and a slim case.
the ipod haters really dont know what they're looking at.
Re:Design and Apple (Score:3, Interesting)
Maybe some people buy it based on marketing, but I'll bet damn few do. My experience has been that people don't drop several hundred dollars based on an ad. They see the ad, it gets them interested, but
Re:Design and Apple (Score:3, Interesting)
Size: The Creative Zen Micro is 2" x 3.3" x 0.7", or 4.62 cubic inches, and weighs 3.8 ounces. The iPod Mini is 3.6 x 2.0 x 0.5, which is 3.6 cubic inches, and weighs 3.6 ounces. Now, I'm willing to argue that the size difference here is negligible, but you brought it up, not me.
Features: The Creative Zen Micro has a built-in FM radio and a voice recorder, as well as a removable battery. Your mileage may vary, but ever
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Interesting)
What I want is:
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Interesting)
Admittedly, both devices I own are relatively old. However, this same
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Informative)
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Funny)
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Funny)
Not Apple?
*ducks*
Don't hurt me! I use a Powerbook!
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:4, Informative)
You know I used to be of the same opinion, but my mind is changing on such things.
I recently sold my Samsung E700 phone and upgraded to a Microsoft / Orange SPV C500. Its the size of a quite compact, regular phone, does all the regular phone stuff, but is powered by PocketPC - so I have access to Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and all kinds of other wonderful things.
I'll get the Microsoft bash out of the way first.. it crashes. As hilarious as it sounds, its the only phone i've ever had that crashes. I've had mobile phones for about 6 or 7 years now, and none of them have been as unreliable as this.. not even the very first Motorola 'brick' I had! It must crash on average once a month, which I feel is pretty poor..
But onto the positive side. I genuinely feel that this is the swiss army knife of phones. Firstly it takes minisd cards.. so I can stick a nice 512MB minisd card in the phone, compress a DivX movie down to fit on the card, and then take a train and have a portable movie player with me. The screen is large compared to the rest of the size of the phone and is very clear. The phone comes with a handsfree kit which is also a pair of stereo headphones, so no annoying of my fellow passengers as I watch a film. I could also put MP3's on there and use it as an alternative to the iPod shuffle I recently bought...
Secondly.. I never thought I would find having mobile internet access so helpful, but it is. Internet Explorer on this phone works surprisingly well, and renders most sites without too much trouble. Again, I never thought I would need such a frivolous feature but as I sat in Schipol airport with a girlfriend, late one Sunday night a few weeks back I wondered if I would be able to get a train back from Birmingham airport back in the UK or if the trains had all finished. No worry.. just whip out my phone, and check the train timetable online.. saved me a lot of hassle and time just having access to that. In the end we had to get a taxi
The camera is good too, and has come in handy so many times.. like getting a picture of the map of the maze at a country house before going into it so we can find our way back out if we get stuck or taking a quick snap of a note that you don't want to forget!
Wonderful phone.. I don't think i'd change it for anything right now.. well.. maybe one with a bit more reliable firmware on it
Don't be so quick to gloss over the seemingly frivolous features. They are more useful than you realise sometimes!
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:5, Informative)
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Informative)
I may be in the minority, but I would definately like to have an all-in-one device. I dont think we're there yet in terms of useability, but eventually why not? When we have the technology to make a phone thats too small to use, an mp3 player that you could lose amongst pocket change and a 10 mp digital camera smaller than a fingernail, I say figure out how to get them all into a single device with elegant functional design and I want one.
Too big and bulky? Bullshit... (Score:5, Insightful)
But if you think of it as a PDA with a built-in phone, which is how you should be looking at it, then there's nothing at all wrong with its size at all.
Look at it this way, if it were any smaller then it would be useless as a PDA, right? So what good is making it smaller?
Seriously, I don't have huge hands (I'd describe mine as being of average size) and I find myself looking at most phones, PDAs, etc (not just the Treo range) and wishing the buttons were a little bit bigger: I'd hate to think how unusable these devices would be to a lot of people if they became any smaller and the buttons were to either become smaller still or be less well-spaced out.
Too big and bulky? You're kidding, right?
Re:Too big and bulky? Bullshit... (Score:5, Funny)
And if you think of it as an anvil with a built-in phone, it's even better!
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Informative)
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Insightful)
This use to be true. However, as sensors become smaller, but gain higher resolution and lower noise, the optics can be shrunken in proportion. Take a look at the examples of what the upcoming Nokia N90 can do [nokia.com] (scroll to the bottom), for an idea of where camera phones are heading.
I'm not saying camera phones will replace professional cameras, but they have a good chance of replacing
Re:40 Gigs of Ring Tones (Score:3, Interesting)
first, Apple's been trying to get into the music phone business for a minute. they've developed something with Motorola and shopped it to domestic telecoms. The telecoms didn't want the equivalent of an IPOD phone because an IPOD phone with ITUNES cuts telecoms out of the revenue stream. telecoms instead have been looking to make direct deals with the record companies. so gates isn't innovating when he says this - he's just reading his APPLE rss feed
Sure... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Sure... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Sure... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Sure... (Score:5, Interesting)
If you look at how much design work they've put into their products, you can't help feeling that at some point soon, they're going to end up with the ideal solution. And at about that point, you suddenly have a major problem; stagnation of the product range, or change for the sake of change.
The iMac is a good example; where exactly do you go from an all in one LCD? Same with the iPod. It plays music, and it plays it really well. How do you improve on it without making it more complex, or adding features some users would find redundant? Or do you simply make cosmetic changes now and again to keep it fresh?
Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Sure... (Score:5, Insightful)
It's the same thing in the stereo world; the best stereo are power amp + preamp + source + etc..
cheaper stereos have everything in one, so you can't just upgrade your power amp but have to scrap the whole thing, and usually everything is compromised and corners are cut to make if affordable.
Re:Sure... (Score:5, Interesting)
It's just the beginning of a move from Computers as Tools to Computers as Appliances... Consumer Electronics are going to get cooler and cooler just like they have been for the last twenty years, Apple just raised the bar a bit.
Re:Sure... (Score:3, Insightful)
Give it a radio, so I can listen to my traffic report or (wishful thinking) hockey game.. then let me record from that radio. Then give it a voice recorder
That's the beauty of their success (Score:4, Insightful)
Where can you go from there? Anywhere you want to. You are invisible.
I wouldn't worry about product 'stagnation'.
When the iMac first came out, in 'bondi blue', it didn't look like a box.
The other PC makers couldn't match it. They were stuck with their beige boxes. Then they tried putting colored plastic panels around the same chassis that used to be in those beige boxes.
We have seem the iMac morph twice, the 'football' and the half ball with a scren slung in front of it, and now its just a flat panel on a pedestal. It was obvious what was happening but the PC makers are still selling their boxes.
I'm thinking that the MacMini and the tablet that Apple just patented, using a wireless network to hook up the devices are the future of home computing.
PCs are still stuck in their old chassis, requiring a desk and a chair in a 'work station' and instead Apple is offering invisibility.
If you had to change a house around, which would you rather have, a monolith with a big footprint or something you can't see except for a portable tablet?
I'm not ever going to touch the iPod, iPod Mini and iPod Shuffle. And neither can the PC manufacturers.
Apple 'gets it'.
Re:That's the beauty of their success (Score:3, Insightful)
Apple 'gets it'.
Except when it comes to price, which is why I have never personally owned a single Apple product.
I like Apple, but their products are too expensive. There are plenty of alternatives to Apple, which is what Apple marketshare confirms.
Re:That's the beauty of their success (Score:4, Insightful)
Correction, their products are too expensive for you, which is very different.
Considering the marketshare of the iPod, it seems a lot of people agree with me.
m-
Re:That's the beauty of their success (Score:5, Interesting)
I like Apple, but their products are too expensive.
Talk to an economist about the current pricing strategies at Apple. They'll tell you Apple is using smart pricing. If you are producing at 100% of your capacity and you are selling everything you make, then your MBAs will tell you that your prices are too low. Raise prices until sales drop to just below your peak production capacity.
As proof, Apple created and dominated the hard-drive MP3 player market in short order with the iPod at the price they chose. Maybe you don't own one, but millions of other people do. You are in the margin of consumers who rejected their pricing and I think Apple is fine with that because this margin represents a smaller loss in potential profit than if they lowered prices to convert you to a customer and then those other millions of sales would have netted a smaller revenue. I know that was a monstorously run-on sentence-- please forgive my inability to communicate this concept. I'm listening to my iPod while I type this.
seth
Re:Sure... (Score:3, Funny)
Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:5, Interesting)
All powered by Microsoft Windows Mobile 5.0.
Has anyone ever done any reseach on how often Bill Gates has been right in his predictions?
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:5, Funny)
I'm sure that at one time, he predicted that Microsoft would dominate the desktop computing market. It seems he made a few bucks off that, but hey, let's wait and see if it really catches on or it's just a fad.
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:5, Insightful)
I agree that Gates has done some great things in his time, but when I read articles that he has written over the years, I am struck by how often he has been dead wrong. The Microsoft Global Network vs. the internet is a case in point.
It seems he made a few bucks off that,..
So because he is rich that makes him right on everything he says? Probably not. Just as people who support gun ownership. They find his support for gun control to be way off base.
Bill has done some great things, but prognostication isn't his strong suit.
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:3, Funny)
Being very successful gets you access to the media, regardless of how often you are right.
Gates is a very competitive guy, not unlike most successful businessmen.
What did you really expect him to say? ipods will win? cell phones running linux will win? Can you say shareholder lawsuit? Even if you can't, Millberg Weiss can.
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:3, Informative)
The people who read his predictions, that's who.
The point of this thread is not whether or not Bill Gates is successful. The point is whether or not he is right in his prediction that cell phones will overtake standalone DAPs for music playing. Lots of people assume that because he is successful, that his predictions carry some weight. And his predictions do carry some we
BillG's predictions (Score:4, Interesting)
BillG does not make predictions in order to predict the future - he makes predictions to advance the fortunes of his company.
If you look at his predictions from the point of view "What is the best thing i can say to advance Microsofts fortunes" you will see that he is 100% spot on there every time. His publicity helps Microsoft, which, in turn, bolsters his very own bank account.
MSFT is up by 0.36% today, whereas AAPL is down over 4%. Go figure.
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:3, Insightful)
That doesn't mean Apple will be out of the business, they'll probably swing a deal with Nokia or something.
Re:Will it also follow that... (Score:5, Insightful)
News Flash 2008 (Score:3, Interesting)
What's the firs
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:4, Insightful)
So being rich makes you right?
I guess you would be running your computer on DC power if that were true. Edison made that prediction and he was rich as well.
Re:Cell Phones over iPod? (Score:3, Informative)
This wasn't exactly a visionary statement anymore by 1977, what with the Apple (I AND II), the Commodore PET, and the Tandy TRS-80 Model 1 all on the market by then...
Moving target (Score:5, Interesting)
Now, as far as his bets on the future of the iPod, like just about everything else Apple has created and Microsoft has copied, the iPod is not stagnant. It's development is ongoing and dynamic, so Microsoft is going to have not not only copy, but out innovate a moving target.
MS are desperately looking for a niche (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Moving target (Score:5, Insightful)
Now, I think there's the real point. Maybe he's right that PDAs and MP3 players will eventually disappear, and in the end we'll have cell phones with PDA features and MP3 playback. Maybe the cameras in phones will become good enough that amateur point-and-shooters won't ever buy stand alone cameras again. And maybe it will be cheap enough that these phones will even be the free phones you get with a 2 year contract. In fact, I'm not sure "maybe" is quite right. I think all this will "probably" happen sooner or later. As tiny cameras, mp3 players, cell phones, and everything else get smaller and cheaper, we'll probably see more and more multifunction all-in-one type devices. So in that sense, yeah, Gates is probably right.
Of course, pretty much everyone has been saying this for years and years on top of that. Wasn't the reason Steve Jobs didn't like the Newton was that he thought the functionality should just be built into cell-phones? (I remember reading something to that effect)
So considering how blatantly obvious it is, who's to say that Apple won't get there first? I mean, that's the real question, isn't it, who will get there first? Will it be the phone companies building MP3 players into their phones, or will it be the MP3 companies building phones into their players, or will Palm release a hard-drive based version of the Trio?
Well, Apple's already built some photo functionality into their iPod, and it seems like it's only a matter of time before we see a iPod/camera hybrid (I think so, anyway). Motorola is releasing an iTunes phone in a few months. Apple has address-book and calendar syncing in the iPod, and it's not hard to imagine essentially integrating the tech from an iPod shuffle into a cell-phone. So I don't know, I wouldn't count Apple out yet.
So, I guess I'm saying that I don't think this is an issue of Bill Gates' vision of the future of technology being different that others'. It's solely an issue of who can put all the pieces of hardware together, write software that will run it in an easy and intuitive manner so people are comfortable with it, and put it all into a reasonably-priced physically-small package. It's anybody's game right now, but I'd certainly put Apple (either by itself or by partnering with another company) among the top contenders.
Maybe (Score:5, Interesting)
Big surprise.... (Score:2)
And ... (Score:5, Funny)
Cellies - Yes. Windows - No! (Score:2, Insightful)
It's coming. (Score:5, Insightful)
If you look at Nokia's cell phones [nokiausa.com], about half of them have cameras. A few years ago, a camera phone would've been pretty rare. I think that's where things are heading with hard drive cell phones, and once you have a hard drive, playing music off of it is pretty simple. Sure, the iPod is fairly entrenched as of right now, but when people's iPods break, they'll already have a device that can play music, making another iPod purchase much less lucrative. As more iPods break than get replaced, these Windows Mobile phones will be waiting to take the MP3 player market away.
Re:It's coming? (Score:5, Insightful)
1. Cellphone service still hasn't really come down much in price. Years ago, everyone seemed to think the emergence of more competing services would bring monthly charges way down, but it hasn't really worked out like that. Anyone can buy themselves a music player or even a PDA and get lots of use out of it, out of the box, without subscribing to anything. Cellphones, on the other hand, are useless paperweights as soon as you stop paying for monthly service. You can argue that cellphones are much more of a "necessity" - but that really depends on who YOU are. For quite a few people, they're just a convenience - as they could wait until they got home or to work to make/return their calls.
2. Cellphone makers have been horribly clueless in building a "convergence device" that really meets people's needs. Look at the latest "cream of the crop" PDA/camera/phones, for example. Take the Treo 650. Still so new, you can't even get on through many major carriers like Verizon, but if you do - you find out it's very fragile/breakable, not to mention still almost too large to carry around comfortably. Battery life could be better too, and as a portable music player, it doesn't hold a candle to something like even a first generation iPod. Meanwhile, like most all other camera phones, it takes lousy low-resolution photos. Where's the desirability in that??
I think the truth is, cellphone makers are really only interested in one thing
Re:It's coming. (Score:5, Interesting)
It's all really going to come down to interface and battery life. If cell phone makers can cram all this functionality into phones without creating an unusable interface or sacraficing battery life then they may very well win the war. But it's really time to wait and see.
Re:It's coming. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's coming. (Score:3, Insightful)
Thing is, if my iPod breaks, I still have my phone. If my phone breaks, I still have my iPod.
Intergration is fine... but the downside is that one failure can bring everything down.
Re:It's coming. (Score:5, Insightful)
Integrating music players into cell phones would, if well implemented, put a major dent in the market for low end MP3 players but probably wouldn't touch the iPod. People who buy iPods aren't looking for some freebie toss-it-in music player.
And this assumes that the phone manufactures, wireless service providers, and Microsoft can all get together and form a business model that they can all agree on that doesn't completely turn off the consumers. If they overburden it with DRM, use limitations, limited song libraries, and per-use fees, then the iPod will continue to reign supreme. These are the same companies that want to charge you for each custom ringtone, SMS message, or picture transferred. How much will it cost me to load my CD collection into my own phone?
Re:It's coming. (Score:3, Interesting)
This is the crux of the convergence problem. Everyone wants something that does everything they could possibly want, but it must do it just as well as the standalone product and it must do it at or
Bill's 1/2 right (Score:5, Insightful)
As for the part about them all running Windows, let's just say that remains to be seen.
Ya know..... (Score:2)
He might be right... (Score:5, Informative)
I call bullshit. (Score:2, Insightful)
However, a phone will not replace the iPod, not unless it can run DRM-less media. Too many people know about DRM these days, and more and more people are avoiding it like the plague.
Not only
News Flash! (Score:5, Funny)
Instead, person Y believes technology made by person Y's company will win long-term!
I'm shocked!! (Score:3, Insightful)
Ignore him...his predictions are merely him using corporate feelgoodspeak in order to try to convince MBAs to follow his product line.
Picture him in a wizards hat and cloak, making dire predictions, selling the cure-all for those ails in his cloak. Kinda suspicious...
Sure, they may...or at least they'll try... (Score:3, Insightful)
No carrier wants to touch it. Let people sync their *own* files with their *own* phone?? Unheard of!
They want to charge $2 or more per song [businessweek.com] that you download to your phone. "Paying for convenience", as it were, or so they say...
I'm not a huge fan of format-restricted Ipods, but (Score:5, Insightful)
The Ipod interface is excellent, and with manufacturers producing quad-channel-GSM cell-phones-on-a-chip, Apple is going to have a much easier time adding cell-phone functionality to an Ipod than Microsoft is ever going to have adding an equivelently easy-to-use and satisfying interface to their so-called smart-phones.
I like my Motorola A700 PDA/Phone, but I don't use it to listen to music despite the fact that it is a capable MP3 player. The Ipod and Rio Karma are optimized for music playback--I've yet to see a cell phone that is so optimized without giving up PDA or cell-phone features to do it. I suspect Apple will be the first out with something that does just work, and it will probably be some variation of the Ipod.
Never happen (Score:5, Insightful)
What I don't buy is that people will use it as an iPod replacement. Why? Because it's designed by committee. The headphone jack is on the bottom of the phone. It's 2.5mm so you have to carry around a bulky adaptor.
The phone ships with Media Player 9 as default which sucks. You have to navigate to Media Player to change a song, and if someone rings you have to unplug the headphones. (I guess this wouldn't matter but they provide such shit ones with the one that you have to use your own.
Cellphone will beat iPod... (Score:5, Funny)
It's like "Rock Paper Scissors"
other Gates initiatives (Score:5, Insightful)
Microsoft Must Be Nervous (Score:5, Insightful)
As to Ipods, whatever Apple's flaws, the marketing of the IPod has been a marvel to see. Apple has managed to brand themselves, and I don't think MS is going to be bashing into that market as easily as they think.
Cell phones beating the iPod? No problem! (Score:5, Informative)
Simplicity of design (Score:3, Insightful)
Disclaimer:
Yes, I use an ipod, the interface could even be easier.
Yes, I use windows, linux (kde) and OS X: They are all bloated. OS X certainly is not the easiest of the three when you want to find a program.
Microsoft have been trying for years.. (Score:5, Interesting)
So who *is* actually building Windows phones in quantity? Well HP is.. a little tiny bit, but most of the world's Windows phones are manufacturerd by HTC [htc.com.tw] of Taiwan and then just rebadged. Sure.. HTC is doing well, and the HTC Universal [mobilegazette.com] certainly rocks.. when it eventually comes out. But for all the squillions that Microsoft has put into this project, they haven't seen an awful lot come out.
Oh yes.. the iPod. Well, on one part we have these "jack of all trades" devices that have a so-so camera, music player, phone and PDA built into one. There's a market for "unified devices". There's also a market for focussed devices that are of a better quality. There's a market for both. Don't forget that Microsoft has been failing to kill off Apple for over twenty years too..
Only if the cellular providers aren't involved (Score:3, Insightful)
Cell phones are not yet a commodity product the same way PCs are. There are at least 3-4 major operating systems, there is no dominant hardware platform, incompatible radio technologies, and the main buyers of cell phones (cellular providers) are far less fragmented and more powerful than any buyer of PCs. It's a very different market. The only way I can see a iPod-replacement-phone taking off is if it if the developer (Palm, MS, Motorola, Nokia, etc) can somehow get the carriers to fight each other for it.
A huge problem with cell phones replacing the iPod is that there is almost zero financial incentive for the cellular providers (Cingular, Verizon, etc) to offer iPod/iTunes functionality on their networks unless they can make money off it. I don't see them being flexible enough to make that happen. They'll want a business like the ringtone business and they'll want it captive so you have to buy it from them. Witness Verizon with their disabled bluetooth functionality on one of their phones. They have no interest in services they can't charge for and are afraid of subsidizing development on a service one of their competitors will benefit from. One of the main reason's the iPod is successful is that you don't have to rely on any third party to use it. You can *choose* to use iTunes, etc but you aren't forced to. This is the exact opposite of how the carriers think.
Another factor is that most phones are subsidized by the providers. Now it's possible someone might produce a device people are willing to buy without subsidizing but I think they can't charge much more than an iPod or Treo. People are obviously willing to carry devices that cost as much as $400-$500US (Treo, some iPods) but if the cost is more than that, I think you are getting outside the sweet spot and most want devices that are much cheaper. It's possible it could happen, I'm just dubious it will happen if the cellular providers have much say in the matter.
Cell Phones (Score:3, Interesting)
I think the general consensus amoung you slashdotters here mainly stem from the fact that you're a little behind in cell-phone technology. Over here, cell phones are already starting to eat away at the portable music-player market (this is going strictly from what I see with my friends though, I doubt it'll turn up at market-analysises this soon).
Good music playing phones already exist, and why shouldn't they? Playing music is simple, calling is simple, using sms is simple. There is no general purpose interface, and none of the generalization problems PDA's end up with.
Nothing Lasts Forever (Score:3, Insightful)
Any emerging technologies out there for cell phones are going to have to consider several factors if they want to compete and beat the iPod as a music player (or if Apple wants to morph the iPod into a cell-phone):
1) Battery life. With all the stuff these uberwidgets are doing, they are going to have to find a good, stable, non-explosive power source. The iPod or other music players have a dedicated purpose--if you multiply the purposes, multiply the power consumption (probably by an exponent). I'd rather have a separate music player than to chance losing all my juice in my phone.
2) Portability--by that, I mean music can be moved from/to an iPod or computer to/from my new music phone easily. The interface has to be easy to use and it will have to be compatible the dominant music sources. Otherwise it's going to have hell catching up because re-inventing that wheel has not proven to be a match for iTMS. People won't switch products if it's not easy or they feel to heavily invested in or loyal to another product/service.
3) Availability & Pricing. If you can't get one from or working with your provider, it doesn't matter how good the product works or doesn't. [Look how long it took the Treo to get ubiquitous support]. The price dictates availability, too. The market demographic for people who want music and cell phones may not have the disposable income to afford it if it's not priced right. (i.e., cheaper than a nice cell phone + an iPod).
4) Fashion. MS's devices aren't ever as slick looking as Apple's--that will definitely be a factor in its appeal to both vendors and consumers. The "cool" factor enjoyed by the iPod is something Microsoft's money just can't buy. They'll have to compete in quality and design--two areas they don't do well in.
Should one device do everything? (Score:5, Insightful)
The trouble is, all of these features saddle the poor little device with a complexity that will boggle even the veteran cell fan. You have to wade your way through a staggering 583 menu commands, along with far too many pointless "Are you sure?" confirmations, to find them all. Just looking up your own phone number requires eight button presses, for goodness' sake.
Already There with a Treo 600 (Score:5, Interesting)
The second thing I noticed in the article was this quote:
"The BlackBerry is great but we're bringing a new approach," he said. "With BlackBerry you need to link to a separate server, and that costs extra. With us, the e-mail function will already be part of the server software."
With Chatter, I get IMAP email pushed in real time to my treo.No extra server needed here either, just a _standard_ IMAP server which supports IDLE, and my treo can get email pushed to it in the background.
He's Right... (Score:3, Insightful)
And he's right that Apple is not positioned for the long haul (ooooh, here come the Apple fanboys). Steve Jobs will be off to make some other neat, shiny thing.
Here's how That Works (Score:3, Insightful)
I would think that once their competitors are aware of this strategy, they would counteract it simply by not resting in their laurels but instead developing cool new features for their devices so that Microsoft can never catch up to the point where their crappy device is good enough to compete. The biggest danger when competing with Microsoft is that you'll be lulled into a false sense of security by how shitty their revision 1 products inevitably are.
Apple's already experienced this once at the hands of Microsoft -- Windows prior to 3.0 was a joke, 3.0 was just good enough to put a hurtin' on Apple and once Apple got smacked down Windows didn't change appreciably for well over a decade. Oh I know they had NT, but it's not like THAT was ever marketted at the home user.
Resist the Borg.. (Score:3, Interesting)
Not on my side...
I flat out refuse to use ANY M$ based product.
Besides, I don't want all that crap. When I'm not at my desk, I'm doing something, driving, working, etc. I don't have time to screw around with a stupid device like this. Besides, I'm old and I can't deal with the "Nintendo thumbs" syndrome. I watched my kids operate those tiny little controllers and I hated the damn things. And doing that on a cell phone while I am trying to drive, that phone is going to get zinged out the window!
I want a phone that I can call people on, has a totally dependable battery, has a large send and hang up button, that I F--king can SEE in daylight (I hate my V120T) and get's a good signal everywhere. Screw games, music and text messages, screw notes and all the other nerd-bling.
I just want a phone that I can depend on when I need it and that everyone doesn't want to steal from me.
The new evangelical Bill Gates (Score:5, Insightful)
The trouble is that Gates assumes that everyone else is dumb and he's smart, so no matter what someone else has done, he can start with their ideas and improve upon it. He doesn't take into account that others are doing the same thing, and that by the time the MS version gets out the door the innovator has moved on.
Witness:
At least some journalists are taking notice [macobserver.com]:
iPod has one HUGE advantage over a cell phone (Score:4, Interesting)
Cell phones need to be upgradable (Score:3, Insightful)
This isn't progress. PCs and TVs are popular partially because you can add new things on to them. But today, to add something to a cell phone requires buying a new cell phone. That aint cheap. Soon, we will need a standardized expandable cell phone so that we can add the drink mixer attachment easily without replacing the whole device.
Until then, I won't waste $1000 to buy the ultimate integrated device, knowing I will need to throw it out very soon.
One thing is being ignored... (Score:5, Insightful)
Apple and Motorola have already had trouble finding takers for their iTunes capable phones because service providers want to sell music to the customer, rather than have them load it off of their computer. It doesn't gain them a whole lot if you can upload your own music.
Plus they are selling crappy ringtones for $3 or more, so can you imagine what would happen if they sold whole songs? They would have to lower their profitable ringtone price point, or sell songs for an outrageous amount, and I'm guessing on the latter assuming they only let you buy music from them. (And probably charge you for the internet access that you will have to use to browse for songs)
Service providers don't want you to have your own music. You hear people whine about iTunes music store, this would be Cingular Music store. $5 single songs at 64k that are DRM's to only your phone.
And as for Bill Gates, he doesn't care about the music player. He wants you to get the phone for the music player and then be tied to microsoft products to sync it. And since you'll also have Word on your phone, you'll need it on your computer... Excel, Outlook,
Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)
I recently returned from Japan (Score:3, Interesting)
As far as I could see the PDA has disappeared in Japan. I saw two or three people using them on the subway and that was it. I couldn't find any Palms or PocketPCs on sale, even in Akibahara. I did find a few 4Gb Sharp Zauruses and lots of ebook/edictionary things. But otherwise no PDAs.
Phone use in Japan is unbelievable. Walking down the street you are faced with hordes of people all texting as they walk. Cellphones in use everywhere. Old people, young people, anyone. I have no idea what some of these people were doing. I assume they were all texting but when I looked over people's shoulders I often saw funky looking animations. It's clear that the convergence with the cellphone has already happened, at least in Japan.
Re:I recently returned from Japan (Score:3, Informative)
My latest phone isn't as fancy (
Re:Anyone else... (Score:5, Insightful)
Very few of his predictions have ever been accurate. I'm surprised that Apple's stock didn't go UP when this bit was published.
Re:Anyone else... (Score:3, Interesting)
Were the GOOG guys to have put more of their stock on the market, or just look to get acquired, do you think they would have been able to find someone to buy them?
And as counterpoint, if Microsoft didn't have such a tough and well-rooted competitor in Linux which gave so much reliable functionalit
Re:Anyone else... (Score:5, Informative)
Um, no. Gates thought that the internet was a joke, not for the business user. M$ was very late coming out with a browser, because they had no interest until it was almost too late. They scrambled like mad to warp and mutate Mosaic into the non-standards complient bastard IE when it was obvious that the internet was not going away.
jfs
Re:Not everyone has (or wants) a cell phone (Score:5, Interesting)
Maybe five years ago, when cell phone popularity was just building up, a woman came up to me on the street and asked me if I wanted a free phone. I told her that I wasn't interested. When she stopped looking at me as if I was mentally deficient, she asked me why.
I replied, "I just don't want to be that accessible. I don't even like to answer the phone when I'm home half the time."
She proceeded, for several seconds, to glare at me as if she had just met the most incomprehensibly retarded person that she had had the pleasure of encountering in her entire life.
She then gave me the spiel about how useful a cell phone would be if I was ever to find myself stranded on the side of the road, my car refusing to start, in the cold Canadian winter.
My response? "In the 22 years I've been alive, I've never found myself in that situation. Paying $20 or more a month to address the unlikelihood of it ever happening seems a little excessive."
She then got a cell phone call and ended the conversation.
Re:Not everyone has (or wants) a cell phone (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Not everyone has (or wants) a cell phone (Score:5, Funny)
And you still haven't quite gotten over it, have you?
Re:Not everyone has (or wants) a cell phone (Score:3, Interesting)
Just FYI, driving up here is like the states and decided provincially instead of federally, but typically the age is 16. Regardless, as I have been riding in cars my whole life an
Re:Quacks (Score:3, Informative)
When a "guy" says that, perhaps he's uneducated about the subject or biased. When Bill Gates says that about IE it's not only biased, it's good business sense.
Like he would ever admit his software and marketshare domination is inferior/lower to another product out there.
If you are going to rag on him you might as well do it for the right reasons.