U.S. Internet Growth Stalling 318
abb_road writes "Internet usage is predicted to grow by only 1% in 2006, with uptake slowing even more in subsequent years. The article examines causes for the slowdown, including individuals who are actively choosing to not be online. These non-users cite a number of reasons for their decision, including cost and increased productivity. Is this simply a combination of luddites and a statistical quirk, or is the Internet reaching its saturation point in the U.S.?"
Privacy (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Privacy (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Privacy (Score:3, Interesting)
"Big Brother" is the government, and occasionally overly powerful large corporations.
He is likely worried about the government reading his email, monitoring his internet searches, the sites he visists, the instant messages he sends.
He is likely aware that they can still tap his phone, monitor his library usage, and follow him around to see who he
Re:Privacy (Score:4, Insightful)
In the vast majority of systems, all the card numbers can be pulled up on the POS screen by a clerk, and these systems all transmit this data on a real-time or nightly basis to atleast one if not several other sources. Usually just by zipping up all the data for the day and FTPing it to a unsecured, unencrypted ftp site.
Not that any of this is how it should be, but with my experience working on these systems I can admit that it works this way. So to say you will avoid the internet doesn't mean any less of your personal data is on it.
In fact, in many cases, avoiding the internet puts you at more risk. For instance, the many websites available where you can purchase peoples phone logs (for their cell phone) work by going to the website of your cell phone provider and logging in using the default username/password that you never changed.
Re:Privacy (Score:4, Funny)
No-one thinks twice of a clerk re-swiping a card after hitting a couple keys on the keyboard. To boot the keyboard layout was such that a computer "pro" would likely never have noticed I hit alt-tab because the keymap was all wacky.
I never did anything with the info, never saved it to disk. Simply did it to prove to the DM that the system we were using was flawed and we should call the vendor.
Turns out the reason we never fixed it was that we were using a single 10 seat licence for a company of approx 400 stores.....
Piracy@example.com here I come! (I hated that company anyway).
-nB
Re:Privacy (Score:2)
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,125053,
Here thieves gained access to the encrypted 'pin block' in which a lot of terminals store the actual PIN codes of the users who used their debit cards. They've apparently managed to extract valid PIN info from these are now happily withdrawing money from victims account with impunity.
Degauss your credit card here! (Score:4, Insightful)
Heck you can make people do it themselves -- put the fake one on the counter and when people go to pay with a credit card point to it, people will swipe
People are very cavalier about swiping their credit/debit/ATM cards -- a few years I saw a TV station in a major city (I think it was NYC) put up a kiosk on the street near an ATM with a reader on it and a sign that said "Clean your credit card's magnetic strip here!" People ran their cards through without even thinking twice about it. (Heck, you could write "Credit Card Degausser" on the front and I bet some idiots would use it.)
Re:Privacy (Score:2)
Well... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Well... (Score:2, Interesting)
Actually, I think you're spot on.
Taking my sister-in-law as being typical, what does she do with the internet?
1) Forward shit that snopes has already flagged as being an urban legend
2) Forward crass jokes
3) IM her kids
4) Maybe read some news
5) Download/Stream Music
That's it. #4 seems reasonable. #3 isn't too bad, although a phone would really be useful.
To most Americans, the Internet is just another drug - another way for the average Joe to get his jollies
Re:Well... (Score:5, Insightful)
This is not far from the point. The Internet was designed to serve the university research community. It is hardly unexpected if less than 100% of US households are interested in the result.
The 'slow' rate of growth is entirely expected. The telephone system grew rapidly in the 30s through the 60s then 'growth' hit a wall and the increase in the number of subscribers was almost entirely due to old non subscribers passing away and a near 100% uptake rate amongst people in their 20s.
If you look at the figures the number of non Internet households is only 34%. The number of non-subscribers is only 29%. Multiply the two figures together and the proportion of the population that has not adopted the net that is most likely to is only 10%. 1% growth per year is about what you would expect at that point - and it is going to be comming almost entirely from the aging effect.
This has been the case for several years now.
The other effect that is not mentioned here is the number of people who have broadband at work but don't want to pay for or cannot get broadband at home. If I could not get broadband at home I would really not want to pay for dialup. I would probably go to Panera to surf instead.
Re:Well... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Well... (Score:2, Funny)
other reasons . . . (Score:3, Interesting)
There's also my personal reason (for not getting online AS MUCH anyway) -- I sit at a computer
all day at work, why would I want to do more of that in my spare time?
Re:other reasons . . . (Score:3, Funny)
Yeah, plus you already read slashdot while you were at work!
Re:other reasons . . . (Score:2, Interesting)
I don't see why most bloggers don't simply give out user names
Blah blah blog (Score:2)
They'll go out of their way to force search engines to index them. And this isn't even counting the spamhorde robo-blogs, which are an even lower lifeform.
I wish there was an easy way to segregate them, but I don't know if this would be possible.
Re:other reasons . . . (Score:4, Insightful)
I hear this idea a lot. But I don't get it, at least not for someone who is a computer enthusiast. Yes, I spend all day at work on the computer, but not all that time is very much fun. In my spare time, I like to use computers for all those fun or useful activities that I couldn't use it at work for because I was too busy WORKING. Granted, I do a wide variety of other activities in my free time, but some of it goes to using computers (which includes programming and other activities that are essentially forms of work). Maybe my job is just getting boring and I don't get to create all the things I want to, so I have to spend my free time to do the things I want to do.
End of the Internet (Score:2)
I Myself Am Cutting Down My Internet Use (Score:5, Funny)
Re:I Myself Am Cutting Down My Internet Use (Score:2)
Re:I Myself Am Cutting Down My Internet Use (Score:2, Funny)
eating reduces my cutting time.
(I'm not a surgeon)
Re:I Myself Am Cutting Down My Internet Use (Score:2, Funny)
eating poop makes my stomach turn.
(I'm not a nuclear physicist)
Is resistance really futile? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Is resistance really futile? (Score:2)
I've been renewing my car registrations via the web for several years. I wonder how long before they make that th
Re:Is resistance really futile? (Score:3, Funny)
http://library.albany.edu/briggs/addiction.html [albany.edu]
I know you have a dependancy.. "a dependency that can be as destructive as alcoholism and drug addiction." And yes, I admit I have it too. "IAD is said to be closest to pathological gambling."
My advice to you is to get outside. enjoy some fresh air. Talk to people, and if you can't find any people, talk to some animals, perhaps getting yourself a pet.
If you continue along the path of a 'net addict' you may find i
Other growth rates (Score:5, Insightful)
Our Infrastructure Sucks (Score:3, Interesting)
If I had to guess, I'd say that growth is slowing down because our infrastructure is stuck in the tarpit of failed deregulation. I just checked yesterday, and in Germany you can get a broadband connection approximately equivalent to one for which I'd have to pay $50/mo., for only €9/mo. In Sweden it seems regular people can get 100MBit connections to their homes at reasonable prices.
Maybe nobody else is jumping to get on the Internet because it's not getting any cheaper and it's not getting any bet
Enough with the hand wringing (Score:5, Informative)
Its like after opening day in baseball when a third of the players in the league are projected to bat .500 with 162 homeruns and 400+ RBIs.
Commercialization (Score:3, Insightful)
There's still lots of interesting stuff out here, it's just getting less worthwhile to look for it.
Re:Commercialization (Score:2)
I posit that the use of buggy and insecure software is one major reason that Internet growth hasn't been all that it could have. People are (rightfully) terrified of all the spam, pop-up ads, viruses, privacy concerns that could all be eliminated to a large extent if reliable end-user software were the norm
Re:Commercialization (Score:2)
In the old days you had to configure Junkbuster and edit text files, but it's much easier these days with firefox extensions.
That's me (Score:4, Funny)
Re:That's me (Score:5, Funny)
Re:That's me (Score:2, Funny)
Anyway, I only started using the internet directly a couple of weeks ago. I mean, what choice did I have? Since the telegraph shut down, I haven't been able to cable old Uncle Richie back east to check my e-mail for me, make Slashdot posts, etc. I decided it was time to get on the ol' innernet bandwagon.
It was inevitable, anyway-- Unc Rich hasn't been too happy about my insistence on up-to-the-minute RSS feeds. I tell hi
Re:That's me (Score:2)
Okay...What's the Problem? (Score:2)
Maybe it's reached its saturation point because of those "luddites"? There are plenty of people who live as comfortably as they wish without the Internet and have no desire to get it, and those people aren't going to die out for a few decades. Spend some time in Oklahoma or Arkansas.
I kinda wonder why this is supposed to matter. Anyone (with VERY few exceptions) who wants Internet
Interesting take... (Score:2)
Re:Interesting take... (Score:2)
I'd say that it's their own business in both cases. I guess it sucks for their kids, but it's worth it to avoid a situation where the government forces "progress" on everyone, regardless of whether or not they want it.
Saturation (Score:3)
End of discussion. Really.
When is the last time... (Score:2, Interesting)
I suspect that the two main reasons for any increase in the number of people using the internet in the US at this point is due to the fact that more people are being born than dying, and likely also has to do with the number of immigrants.
Coincidentally, the numbers on the CIA Factbook give me 1% when taking these things into consideration.
QED???
Re:When is the last time... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:When is the last time... (Score:2)
Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:5, Insightful)
1984? That's a bit of a stretch. There, the government controlled all communications; I don't think any one government can control the Internet. It's spread across the globe and even repressive governments allow limited access.
Her problem is that she's bought into the media hype over the problems on the Internet. It's not like there are none, but if she's worried about her personal information, does she throw out sensitive documents (pay stubs, credit card bills, etc.) without shredding them? Perhaps she's handed her card over to a cashier, not realizing it's being double swiped [moneysense.ca]. Does she carry on cell phone conversations out in public, blithely giving away personal details anyone in earshot can hear?
The problem is not the Internet, but the people on the Internet, specifically the con artists, scammers, and criminals who now have a new way of fleecing honest citizens. As long as the media contnues to blow every story out of proportion, Internet growth will die out.
Re:Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:4, Informative)
Puente doesn't even have a computer at home. That would mean spending close to $1,000, plus an additional $15 to $20 a month for Internet service, not to mention the inevitable upgrades. "You always have to buy some new software to make it juicier," she says. "What kind of juice would I be getting out of it? Nothing."
1. You can get a computer for ~$500.
2. I have internet for $7 a month (going up to $10 after the first year).
3. Aside from software required for school or work, I haven't bought any software in years. There are too many good free/OSS solutions out there!
Re:Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:3, Insightful)
1. You can get a computer for ~$500.
2. I have internet for $7 a month (going up to $10 after the first year).
3. Aside from software required for school or work, I haven't bought any software in years. There are too many good free/OSS solutions out there!
I think the perception of cost and problems is what keeps many away. Sure, you can get good deal, because y
Heck... (Score:3, Interesting)
Note: Ken_g6, this isn't aimed at you - your tips are spot on...
If you know what you are doing, have no qualms about "dumpster diving", and are willing to get up off the couch for a weekend to peruse business park/office building dumpsters - most of the time you can get enough working parts for a computer - for free!
Indeed, if you work for any business with a large enough IT department, and are nice to the IT staff, you can sometimes get whole systems for nothing. The
Re:Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:2)
Anecdotally - with ISP's failing to educate their newbies about this, it usually comes as quite a shock to others when I can quickly browse to their own unlisted phone number / street address / age / etc.
Re:Reasoning based on false assumptions (Score:2, Insightful)
It has to be worth it (Score:5, Insightful)
-Who don't want to get viruses
-Who don't want to get spam
-Who don't want to pay $50 a month for fast Internet
-Who don't want to mess with computers at all
When someone's computer gets all screwed up with viruses they often buy another computer to work around the problem. Maybe it's time to upgrade anyway, but sheesh that's a big investment just to surf the net.
The biggest thing that would get *me* off the Internet is the monthly $50 cost. Cable is the only option where I live, and Adelphia won't give us a break.
Usefulness? (Score:2)
Even the smartcar has a passenger seat and minimal trunk space to carry groceries and whatnot. Imagine a car that could *only* drive you around. To me, that's like a computer without the Internet.
Luddite... (Score:5, Funny)
""If you're spending all your time on e-mail, you're not listening and reading," says Rogers, who rarely took lecture notes while he was a student so he could listen more intently. "I listen and read; e-mail is a huge distraction.""
Uh, I wonder how he thinks you are supposed to absorb email - osmosis?
Steve
Re:Luddite... (Score:2, Insightful)
You don't get it...he's a CEO, he doesn't have to do such time-wasteful frivolities, he has other people to do it for him.
Using the internet is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Writing things down on paper is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Cooking food and washing clothes is a waste of time, just have others to do it for you and reap the benefits.
Seriously, somebody who can delegate his usage of the Internet to an unde
Re:Luddite... (Score:2)
So, what do you think of this new email thi...
But surely
Not really (Score:2)
Cognitive Barriers (Score:4, Insightful)
She is 59.
This is just empiricle evidence of course, but the nature of multiple paths, whether its the computer's interface or the sorting through the billions of results on Google, really seems to confuse the older generation.
In some respects, my mother seems to do better when she one definitive research source, and one path to a solution.
It's not age, it's the unknown (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not about being old or slow, it's about "do you care about this?"
She likes to cook, she'll work on 10 different ways to make a chicken and rice meal. I can make rice, only because she told me what to do once. BTW: while I'm sure there is a way to make rice in the microwave, I've never explored it, and in fact, I use the same pot each time.
If you don't care to "learn" how something works, you develop a process. I have no interest in learning how to cook, so I don't learn options, I just learn what to do.
You are interested in computers, therefore, you find a path. I bet when it comes to laundry, someone taught you how to wash your shirts once, and you've never experimented with different combinations of hanging the clothes to dry or running the dryer, have you? My mom could teach you all the ways to make different types of shirts require more/less ironing and different levels of softness, but I don't care. In college, I memorized settings for each shirt type, and never experimented.
Alex
Re:It's not age, it's the unknown (Score:2)
Re:It's not age, it's the unknown (Score:3, Funny)
1) bring water to boil
2) measure and add rice in a 2:1 ratio of water to rice
3) remove from heat cover and stir occasionally till water is absorbed
YOU JUST MADE RICE THE EASIEST POSSIBLE THING TO MAKE
how some of you people survive at all is a complete mystery
Solution: Lower ISP Rates and/or provide freeWIFI (Score:3, Interesting)
Then, you can show them Google, Wikipedia and Slashdot and they may never leave.
Press perpetuates the problem (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Press perpetuates the problem (Score:2)
Newbies Sold a Bag of MS BGS (Score:3, Interesting)
Between difficult to use features, hardware incompatibilities, non-intuitive settings and choices, then spam, virii, adware, phishing, etc, I have seen people give up on the Internet, because they simply couldn't figure out all of Gates BS.
I switched one friends wife to an iBook, and she (also a newbie) has had little problem, and it makes him a bit envious. He is reluctant to try anything new at this point, as Windows was so hard to deal with.
For the average users it is only one thing that is important: EASE OF USE.
Re:Newbies Sold a Bag of MS BGS (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Newbies Sold a Bag of MS BGS (Score:2)
I have family with Windows computers which barely boot, run at a snail's pace, pop up ads at regular intervals, have ad-icons regenerating themselves on the desktop, and are probably repo
The growth in the use of the Internet is stalling (Score:5, Insightful)
It's expensive to get a good connection (Score:4, Informative)
I have friends who live paycheck to paycheck, and $720 per year for internet access is something they can do without.
Re:It's expensive to get a good connection (Score:2)
Re:It's expensive to get a good connection (Score:3, Informative)
Internet access is not a piddling expense. At a minimum average, people have to pay about $15/mo for dialup; hence, $180/yr. And the Internet at dialup speeds is only so interesting; for example, no online low-ping games, no video, very little audio, no large graphics, etc.
The only next step u
One Major reason ... (Score:4, Interesting)
This doesn't seem to be the problems with other countries for some reason. I guess their comunications companies actually want to make money on selling internet access, too bad ours doesn't.
When you OWN the politicians, you cna jsut sit back and charge 10 times the amount for similar service in other countries and you don't have to lift a finger to increase your service area. Why do work when you can get the politicians to pass laws allowing you to do nothing to add user access and charge out the wazzoo.
Re:One Major reason ... (Score:2, Interesting)
I give up on the web (Score:5, Funny)
See ya on the flip side
Re:I give up on the web (Score:2)
I really like the menu tree paradigm instead of the hypertext paradigm... It was simpler, maps better to the whole directory tree structure, and it probably would have created a system less about presentation and more based on information.
Saturated or Maturing? (Score:3, Interesting)
Saturation on the coasts maybe, not in the middle (Score:5, Insightful)
What they do have however, is Playstations and Xbox's. The reasons why are numerous. Cost, lack of options, etc.
I believe that the next generation consoles, particularly the PS3, along with Ajaxy Web 2.0 and the continued proliferation of broadband to the home, will truly start to bring the Internet to the masses.
A computer is still intimidating and a tough sell to a lot of these people... but a $300 game machine that your 4 kids are begging for, that's an easy sell.
Once they discover that it has a decent web browser and that there's a whole new world of communication and content out there... then things will start to really grow.
Re:Saturation on the coasts maybe, not in the midd (Score:2, Insightful)
Regulation plays a roll (Score:2)
Governments, businesses, lawyers isp's, and such are all playing an increasingly complex game of regulation and political maneuvering these days. Much less than in years before. All this extra "stuff" has a cost, it slows the speed of development and growth of most aspects of the service. Primarily due to the extra hoops and liabilities that users must now jump through and avoi
access at work is sufficient ... (Score:5, Funny)
According to the article, a significant number of people say "access at work is sufficient."
That's a rational economic decision. 8 hours a day for reading personal email and blogging should be enough for most people.
Re:access at work is sufficient ... (Score:2)
For you maybe...
Re:access at work is sufficient ... (Score:2)
HA! Try again, 14 hours a day is the new norm.
36% seems high (Score:2)
US-only. (Score:2)
Sweden and Japan seems to have no problem in internet usage growth even though the
Perhaps, it is an accessibility problem (Score:2, Interesting)
Telephones (Score:2)
The internet is rather counter-productive (Score:2, Insightful)
It's too expensive (Score:4, Insightful)
A major factor of internet growth slowing is due to corporate greed. Costs everywhere are too high when factored into the rest of the average US citizens budget. The bottom is soon going to collapse - I can't wait.
Bloody full page ads (Score:4, Insightful)
I notice that Wired.com has also started spitting those annoying ads recently too.
When confronted with such an ad I just hit the back button and don't return.
I'm happy to accept banner ads (even skyscrapers) but any site that dishes up pop-up/under/over ads and full-page interstitials immediately gets crossed off my list of "sites worth visiting"
Am I the only one who got that ad on the BWO site -- or doesn't anyone else care that the Net is becoming increasingly like TV in respect to the intrusiveness of advertising?
don't sweat the internet stalling (Score:2)
The novelty is wearing off (Score:3, Interesting)
"F*** you, I got mine" (Score:3, Insightful)
Worldcom (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:How about fear as a good reason? (Score:2)
Give me a break (Score:3, Insightful)
If you are in the content creation business, different story I suppose. But getting out of a particular business does not requ
Re:How about fear as a good reason? (Score:2)
Re:How about fear as a good reason? (Score:2)
Re:As amazing as it sounds... (Score:2, Funny)
Savages!
Re:As amazing as it sounds... (Score:2)
Seriously though, a lot of new technology isn't worth the amount of cash you have to fork over if you want it. I never even bothered to get an LCD screen (much less a plasma) because I don't see enough of an improvemnt over a decent CRT to justify the increased cost.
Re:Cost (Score:2)
If you need it, $60/month isn't a big expense.
Re:Cost (Score:2)