TiVo to Drop Lifetime Service Plan

Thomas Hawk writes "TiVo held their most recent analyst conference call today and on the call announced that they will be dropping their lifetime subscription option as well as offering three new monthly no upfront fee TiVo plans combining their box and service for one year, two year and three year commitments. Additionally they announced that their highly anticipated Series 3 HDTV standalone model with CableCARD support will not be available until after "mid year," a new retail partnership with Radio Shack and the fact that the company is in solid discussions with other cable operators for deals similar to their previously announced Comcast initiative."

Is Tivo still relevant?

Now that they're cutting back on services and making it more difficult to avoid commercials, surely there must be a better service out there...

Is there?

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

MythTV, buddy - completely free and far too difficult for years now!

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

I would have agreed with the difficult part 3 days ago, but then I watched my buddy set one up from scratch in only a few hours. And that was on cheap, dated hardware. It works well and looks beautiful, here is the guide [wilsonet.com] he used.

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

How exactly are they making it more difficult to avoid commercials? I still fast forward through them just like before. The only change I've noticed is more commercials support Tivo's "press thumbs up for more info" thing if you do watch them.

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

Now that they're cutting back on services and making it more difficult to avoid commercials, surely there must be a better service out there...

Cue the hordes of homebrew PVR links...

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

There are two REALLY big blunders that TiVo is making with this new pricing model:

1. The box is only warrantied for 1 year, but you can be under contract for up to 3! If the box dies on you 13 months into your contract, you're stuck either paying for 23 more months of service on a box you can't use, or paying TiVo a fee to swap your box for a refurbished model and move your service to it.

2. Hidden away in the fine print (but mentioned at the TiVoCommunity.com forums) is that the monthly fee you're paying doesn't automatically go down to the $12.95/month "service-only" option once your contract period is up. You have to call TiVo and request that it be lowered to save yourself the extra monthly fee, which is buying you NOTHING, not even warranty coverage. It's a win-win for them, no one had to do the new coding in their billing system, and they get to take advantage of everyone too busy to note exactly what month they purchased their TiVo in.

I've been a huge TiVo fanboy, I've owned 6 boxes since 2000, and have referred enough friends and family to TiVo to earn a 140 hour box, a Nikon digicam, and an iPod Shuffle, but I think my love affair may be coming to an end over this. I'm already suffering through using a Motorola HD DVR on my HDTV, and was planning on getting the HD TiVo later this year when it was introduced, but now I'm sorely tempted to get a Microsoft Media Center box instead, as it'll work with my Xbox 360...

At a minimum, TiVo really needs to warranty the box for as long as the contract is in effect, and swap it out for NO CHARGE when one breaks, they also need to automatically revert the charge to the "service-only" option after the contract has expired.

Fortunately, TiVo breakdowns are pretty rare, but they do happen. I lost a hard drive in my Toshiba DVD/TiVo box after it was only 5 months old, and I lost a modem in my 20 Hour Series 1 box in 2001. The Toshiba was replaced under warranty, and I hacked in an ethernet card to repair the Series 1 box.

I used to easily defend TiVo's monthly fee by pointing out that not only did they have to pay for guide data, but they had to pay for ISP service for the boxes to dial in nighly to retrieve guide data. Now that most of the people I know have their TiVos hooked to their home network, it's a lot harder to defend...

Re:Is Tivo still relevant?

However much you may dislike commercials, you need to come to terms with the fact that TV is not in fact free, and attempts to get TV to be free by commercial-skipping PVRs will be blocked on a large scale by the TV stations themselves under pressure from the advertisers. And if that is allowed now by the way that TV companies transition from TV to commercials, they will change. Over and over again until it is not possible. Potential investors will be shoo'ed away.

Once you embrace the advertisers as the people who actually directly pay for your TV, many more doors open, and you might even be able to increase revenue by more directly connecting consumers to the people who pay for it all.

That is the route for a successful PVR company.

MythTV

MythTV (www.mythtv.org) is looking better and better.

Re:MythTV

You obviously don't know a whole lot about MythTV. Yes, you need to buy a tuner card, but at the same time you can display it on a regular TV. In fact I have mine hooked up to my 42" HDTV and the display looks great.

Re:MythTV

A MythTV box will cost more than a TiVo, based on their new three-year plan. It will work on your television, not just your computer - the MythTV software is intended to be used on a standalone computer that is dedicated to DVR functions.

The benefit over TiVo for most users is that MythTV doesn't lock you into someone else's content control system. The stories [pvrblog.com] about abuses [boingboing.net] from the makers of the devices or from the studios, abetted [boingboing.net] by the makers, are not hard to find. As Cory Doctorow says, nobody woke up this morning wanting their DVR to do less than it did yesterday. Yet, that's exactly what you are agreeing to allow when you buy a TiVo or use a Windows Media PC - someone else has more rights on your machine than you do.

Now, outside the DRM realm, another important issue that makes MythTV attractive is expandability. Yes, TiVo is hackable, but it's not meant to be hackable easily. My particular MythTV box has two tuners, and room for at least two more (I could actually have eight if I went with dual-tuner cards). TiVo has one tuner. A settop DVR from a cable or satellite company usually has two tuners, but you can't add more.

And if you're reading Slashdot, you're probably willing to play with your toys anyway, right? MythTV is fun. :-)

Re:MythTV

A MythTV box will cost more than a TiVo, based on their new three-year plan.

Horsepucky!

IF and only if you include the price of a full PC, the costs come out comparable (for $469, you can build a damn fine low-end PC). Tuner cards cost well under $100, and you don't need a monitor (since you would presumeably use this with an existing TV, and if not, you'd need to consider that in the price of a TiVo as well).


Until now, Myth and the like have served a niche audience of people who would tend to have a decent PC in their livingroom anyway, and for an extra $50 could also use it as a PVR. This move has shifted the balance even for people wanting a dedicated DVR in their TV room - You could even go so far as to buy a cheap-ass Dell and throw in a capture card for less than the 3-year plan.

Costs and benefits of MythTV

Not horse pucky. Of course I include the cost of the PC - I'm not using my MythTV box to do anything other than hook up to the television. Sure, I'm doing more than a TiVo can do, but it's still not my general-purpose computer. You can't remove the cost of all the hardware you need.

You are right, though - a machine comparable to a TiVo can be built for money comparable to what you'd spend on a TiVo. I don't know too many folks who build MythTV machines that are comparable to a TiVo though. The 80 gigabyte harddrive is never enough, the single tuner is rather paltry, etc. So, I suppose I should have been more clear - most MythTV users will spend more on their machine than if they bought a TiVo, but they also have about five times the capacity and much more expandability and more features and no DRM. Better?

Re:MythTV

What are we MythTV users going to do for digital TV, though?

Pay 20% more for the tuner card to import it from Canada or the UK or Taiwan or Vanuatu, who will all (in decreasing order of "give a shit what the US says to do") laugh heartily at we stupid Americans that let our Corporate Masters(tm) sell us inferior products simply by labelling them "new and improved".


I keep hearing scary things about encrypted signals, broadcast flags, and other Orweillian bullshit.

Currently, US law doesn't force the broadcast flag on anyone (and no hardware manufacturer will support a "feature" that makes their product less desireable unless forced to).

Don't rest easy on that thought, though, because that particular war hasn't ended quite yet (nor will it ever, most likely). The RIAA just started pushing congress for the same thing for digital audio, and don't think the MPAA won't support and try to extend that proposal...

But as I said, those of us who love freedom, particularly the freedom to use our posessions as we see fit, will always have the option of simply breaking the law and importing hardware that ignores such nonsense.

Re:MythTV

I wish I could get my MythTV box fully functional. I've spent far more on it over the years than I have on my Tivo and it still doesn't measure up. It can do more "stuff" but it does it in a much less polished way. In this latest attempt, the IR receiver on my PVR350 doesn't work, though it did work in a previous incarnation.

The core MythTV documentation is severely lacking. There are lots of good tutorials out there, but since every tutorial focuses on a specific set of hardware you can waste a lot of time if you have slightly different hardware than the tutorial.

Anybody know how to keep my MythTV box from locking up when the disk gets full? I have a separate partition just for recordings, but MythTV can't seem to figure out that it should delete old ones when the partition is full. I never had to configure my Tivo to handle this very obvious issue.

I keep working on my MythTV box because I know that my series 1 Tivo will fail someday, but unless there are some major improvements in the MythTV documentation and code I expect that I'll keep using my Tivo until it dies.

Re:MythTV

Good to know I'm not the only one having problems. I have tried 3 different distributions (some of them 2-3 times each!), sometimes following tutorials, sometimes not, with different results each time. The common thread between the results is that something doesn't work right when I'm done. You hit the nail on the head: the core documentation absolutely sucks.

I've spent a ton of time on it, and even if I get it to work, I still have to train my wife. She gets the TiVo interface just fine, but even I don't understand why Myth does things how it does sometimes.

I'm about ready to just eBay the hardware and get the cable company's HD PVR. Yeah, the interface sucks, but I don't have as much time for this crap anymore.

A retail partnership with Radio Shack?

Oh dear. I love my (series 1 UK) Tivo but I knew they'd been struggling. Didn't realise it was this bad.

Foreboding signs

If TiVo doesn't offer lifetife subscriptions anymore, then it might just suggest that they won't be around for anyone's lifetime. The fact that they are partnering up with a retail chain on its last legs, RadioShack, doesn't bode well for its future. It's a pity to see such an inventive company put its survival into doubt.

Still, the lack of the new model until mid-year doesn't bother me much. Existing models already due everything a user could want, the Series 2 [amazon.com] records your shows. For 40 hours. What more could you want? Although there have been some issues with build quality (see some of the reviews on the Amazon listing) that hopefully will be fixed in the next generation.

Re:Foreboding signs

I'm not a RadioShack fan by any means but a company that has EPS of 1.78 and a P/E of 10.76, isn't that bad. Their market cap is over 2.5 Billion. Not bad in my opinion. The management fiascos of late are a problem but they will be repaired. I thought RadioShack would die in the 1980's, they are still here.

Before saying a company is on it's "last legs" maybe you should do some actual research?

Re:Foreboding signs

The Radio Shack I frequented in the 1980s was a place with an amazing selection of electronics, hobbyist components, how-to guides, and spare parts, and had knowledgable hackers behind the counter who shared my love of technology and were likely building just as complex gadgets in their own basements as I was.

That place is dead, replaced by a cellphone and set-top-box store with a standard retail drone behind the counter whose blank stare glazes over at the merest mention of a Zener diode or anything else that isn't their newest mobile plan.

Re:Foreboding signs

Nostalgia is lovely honey, but when was the last time you bought a Zener diode?

I miss my grandfather's horse whip business, but when times changed he got a filling station (all true, and the station went bust in the Depression.) Ratshack couldn't make it on the radios covered in fake fur so they looked like poodles, and the "Battery Club" never brought in THAT many folks, so they had to move on.

Radio Shack is everywhere. Something like 95% of US households are within 10 miles of a Radio Shack. 99% of all US household members wander through a Radio Shack every few years. That makes them closer then the big box stores, just the place to drop into for the odd watch battery, TV cable, or gadget gift.

Radio Shack has that to their advantage. So they went with it. No huge inventory of electronics parts taking up room that turned over every few years. Instead they can make more per square foot with bogus air ionizers, RC cars, and over-over-priced A/V & computer stuff. And now TiVo.

But ya know what? They sell! $45 for a keyboard, the same one as Best Buy for $30 and $10 online, it pays the bills. S-Video cable, hit the local RS for double the cost or go wandering the bowels of Circuit City, past the washing machines, with chirpy kids insisting to 'help' when they wouldn't know an S-Video cable if you flogged 'em with it (yes, thank you, I'm literate, I can read the labels on the store shelves for myself, no need to annoy me with your non-assistance.)

So RS stays in business. Heck, with cellphones they've even prospered. Sure I laughed out loud the day I read on the bottom of an email "Radio Shack: You've got questions - we've got blank stares. And cell phones!" but truth be told they're more convenient then a carrier's store and the staff is better then the kiosk monkeys.

This will be a smart partnership for TiVo. They'll get huge visibility, their products won't be lost in the bowels of BigCo. in the dark areas behind the giant flat panel TVs, instead front & center in every mall & burg in the US. That's what TiVo needs, now they just need to give every RS employee a TiVo for 2 months, then let 'em loose to sell away!

Re:Foreboding signs

If TiVo doesn't offer lifetife subscriptions anymore, then it might just suggest that they won't be around for anyone's lifetime.

I'd say it suggests just the opposite. If I think I'll be around for a few years, then offering lifetime service is an expensive offering. First, I have to take on a long term commitment, with no long term cash flow. Second, it allows customers to lock in current subscription rates, preventing me from getting any extra cash if I raise them in the future.

If I think I'll probably be bankrupt next year, then I may as well label my one year subscription as "lifetime". Maybe I'll sell more, and it will delay the bankruptcy.

Re:Foreboding signs

If TiVo doesn't offer lifetife subscriptions anymore, then it might just suggest that they won't be around for anyone's lifetime.

That's not how I'd expect a capitalist to run their business.

I would expect them to continue selling lifetime subscriptions up to and including the day that they file corporate bankruptcy papers.

I would also expect to see them begin to market the lifetime subscriptions more heavily.

So this, to me, does not indicate that they're going out of business any time sooner. It indicates to me that they want to maximize their revenue, and they feel that they'll be around longer than $250 / $13/month = 19.2 months or under 2 years. By no longer selling lifetime contracts, they will be net positive within two years, on new sales. And, it'll be recurring revenue, instead of a one-time income and then recurring expenses (powering the servers that serve the program guide, paying to have all those phone numbers to dial-in, etc).

Lifetime support?

Not exactly on topic, but this reminds me of one of the Fun Facts about Kibonia [kibo.com]:

"Web domains in Kibonia (.KB) are available for only fifteen schwas a year. They can be reserved forever, provided that payment of fifteen schwas per year is received in advance."

Replay TV, Bay-Bee!

The more I read about the emasculation of various service plans and firmware pieces in the PVR space, the more my lifetime subscription to SonicBlue and my commercial-crushing early-model RTV4504 begin to look like Sacred Lost Crystal Technology from Ancient Atlantis.

Eventually something will break that I can't fix, or some double-A agency will wise up to the fact that I haven't seen a spot break in seven or eight years, and I'll have to bite the MythTV bullet, but until then, *I* control the Vertical and the Horizontal...

Not offering, or discontinuing?

they will be dropping their lifetime subscription option

Will they just stop offering it and honor existing owners, or do they plan to force everyone to downgrade to a monthly subscription model? And does this include their free "basic" service?

If the latter, and it includes their free basic service, they can expect one hell of a class-action from folks like me who bought an OEM TiVo box (as opposed to rolling their own Myth box) only because of the free lifetime basic service.


Heh... From the article, "According to Rogers, with TiVo's higher monthly fees and one year lock in they have increased the lifetime value of a TiVo customer by over $100."

Do they really want to say things like that in public? It might sound optimistic and fluffy, but just means "we will milk an extra hundred bucks from suckers who use TiVo every 2-3 years". Not the best PR material...

Re:Not offering, or discontinuing?

It's not public relations. It's investor relations.

Tivo still charges?

With so many "free" services available, such as using your PC, I'm amazed that TiVo is still able to charge their customers a fee.

Current lifetime subs just went up in value.

Well... at least I'll get a hell of a lot of money for my TiVo with lifetime sub on ebay.

Remember lifetime sub was for the lifetime of the unit, not your lifetime.

Also. The only thing that has changed is that they have dropped Lifetime subs and added more subscription options.

You'll still be able to go to a store and buy a unit, and get a service only subsription for $12 and change. You'll also be able to buy a second service only subscription and get the multi-service discount of $6 and change on the additional units.

The change is that if you don't want to eat the cost of a unit upfront, there are news subscription options where the cost is amortized for a couple of years.

Poor TiVo

This is sort of sucks. I still have my original TiVo Series 1 (Made by Sony) that is at least 5 years old now. (Maybe more.) I got a lifetime subscription for like $200 when I bought it, and it's still chugging along. To most people, the lifetime subscription option was particularly attractive, because most don't want another monthly bill. And in retrospect, it was worth it, because I have been paying an average of $3.33 a month.

I know that the industry wants to maintain a sustainable income source, but companies used to do that my innovating with new products. Now they just want to charge a monthly fee for everything. TiVo had a really great idea, but they haven't done much innovating since their first product. (Sure, bigger, faster, higher resolution, but nothing really new) I hope that the pendulum starts to swing the other way, and soon. I'd rather pay more for a product up front than keep getting hit with monthly charges. Gives me the feeling of ownership.

Re:Poor TiVo

The first Tivo I used was bought with a lifetime subscription in 1999, one of the original Philips models. It's since needed a replacement hard drive (at which point the original owner gave the box to me and upgraded to a newer model), and the modem port blew up (switched to the serial port and ultimately a TivoNet card); with those repairs it's still running fine. As of right now that puts this one at around $2.75/month for its lifetime.

The payback period for the lifetime subscription has been between 2 and 3 years of product use, well within the expected lifetime of the box. Even in the rare case where the Tivo fails before then, it usually adds something to the salvage value of the unit if sold on ebay. As such, I have advised everyone who purchases a Tivo that they should consider the lifetime subscription part of the purchase price of the unit, and to look at it as a 3 year purchase--after which they would normally expect another couple of years worth of free service before the hard drive fails and they need to spend more money.

Now I'm going to have to tell them something else altogether, as Tivo has just priced itself out of the market. Looks like it's time to get familiar with my local cable provider's DVR box.

So not a big deal...

SO what? Only a tiny percentage of customers ever used lifetime anyway. Buying a lifetime today would be silly anyway, as the lifetime fee is the same as about three years paying monthly - that's a long time to recop an investment in a consumer electronics product at this juncture in TV history.

TiVo is actually very smart to offer the new "no money down" plans - that's the #1 complaint I hear from people as to why they don't buy a TiVo; many people do not like buying a product and THEN paying a monthly fee. Conversely, most people thought the idea of paying an additional $300 for something, even if it meant no monthly fees ever, was ridiculous as well - they just couldn't wrap their heads around it.

TiVo does exactly what I need it to do, which is why I have one. PC-based soloutions are at best clunky, and I have an elegant little box in my living room that does it all for me. I transfer shows back and forth from my TiVo to my PC when I want to archive them, and burn them to DVD when I wish.

The biggest complaint about SD TiVo's is that you can't record two programs at once; that's why many people have two TiVo's. Personally, I live very well with that limitation - there is only so much TV one can watch in a day, week, or lifetime and having to make some choices keeps me from getting OD'd on too much unlimited choice. Sure, choice is almost 100% better in any instance, but here I actually like that I personally have to make a choice between some programs (and the DVD recorder is always there if I really, really have a conflict).

DVR's so completely change how you think about your time, especially in relation to TV (obviously) - but I've used some of the "other" ones and nothing does it for me like a TiVo. Simple, elegant, and it does everything I want. I'm also a monthly subscriber, like the vast majority of TiVo owners, so the removal of the program isn't even going to be a blip on most of our radars.

Silver Lining

...Additionally they announced that their highly anticipated Series 3 HDTV standalone model with CableCARD support will not be available until after "mid year," a new retail partnership with Radio Shack

Boy if a partnership with "You've got question, we got blank stares" formerly run by someone who lied about his degree doesn't get the investors excited, I don't know what will!

Goodbye TiVo

I own one Series 1 that I bought back in 2000 and two Series 2 that I bought back in 2002. I knew that I would be using these products for a long time in the future, so I naturally purchased a lifetime subscription plan. In light of this news, I will not purchase another unit, even the admittedly attractive Series 3. If I purchase hardware, it will have a fixed cost, and it will be fully functional until it dies of old age. If I cannot do that, I will "rent".

This decision represents TiVo walking off the cliff. Time Warner is happy to rent its customers a HD DVR for no upfront cost and $8/mo. TiVo would have me purchase the hardware and provide them with an infinite income stream at $13/mo, or in its new plan, effectively rent the hardware for at least $17/mo with a three year commitment.

I'm sorry, but no user interface is worth a three year contract at twice the price. TiVo just lost a repeat customer.

... *For Series 2 Tivos*

For those who didn't RTFA, here's an important point:

This pricing plan only applies to the current Series 2 models. Rogers said that they were not ready to commit to this pricing model for the upcoming Series 3 HDTV TiVo due out later this year. Pricing on the Series 3 will be announced closer to its launch.

While it doesn't look like a good sign that they are dropping lifetime for Series 2, it's not yet ruled out for the next generation. Here's hoping...

Complete transcript

Ah, a commenter on TFA points out the complete transcript [cestockblog.com] nyud.net mirror [nyud.net] of the call is available. A relevant quote:

[Stuff about the upfront-only plan] With this new pricing plan we will no longer be offering a lifetime service option.

To be clear, this new pricing for now will only be available for sales done through TiVo.com. We are exploring the possibility of launching similar types of programs into retail later in the year.

Then later in the Q&A portion:

Q: .. Secondly, will the pricing terms also be available when you roll out your dual tuner HD box later this year?

A: .. When it comes to, what we call our high def product later in the year, we have not yet set specific marketing or pricing arrangements for that yet. As we get closer to that timeframe we'll be looking to put that in place. This applies to our existing TiVo line of products that are in the market today.

So it sounds like lifetime for current models could possibly continue to be available at retail (though I can't say I've heard of a retail outlet offering a lifetime priced bundle), and the next gen HD is still yet to be determined.

In other news...

....Wallstreet reports customers drop TiVO for Comcast DVR's.

Transcript of Conference Call

Here is a transcript [cestockblog.com] of the full conference call and a quick take [cestockblog.com] of the two most important minutes of that call that relate to the new pricing strategy.

Are there any hardware PVRs without subscriptions?

I avoided TiVo and Replay due to their subscription requirements and high prices.

Do the newer PVRs with timeshift and DTV supports and without service subscription requirement (e.g., don't need the fancy TV guides, recommendations for other shows, voting, etc.) exist? I do not subscribe to satellite and cable TV services (I am a cheap punk, and I don't watch that many TV shows and movies) since I watch through broadcasts. I know DVD recorders exist, but they are quite limited in how much recordings especially with those HDTV (e.g., 1080i). Plus, they are expensive the last time I checked.

Currently, I use an old fashion VCR (record analog TV shows that don't require high quality picture and audio) and a computer with a HDTV tuner PCI card [www.bbti.us] (acts like a PVR, but it is buggy, unstable, and not reliable like a VCR or a standalone hardware-based PVR; also don't like leaving computers on at home). I would love to replace my VCR before February 2009 before digital TV is enforced in USA.

Are there any types of hardware PVRs out there in local retail stores? I live in Los Angeles, CA, USA area. I would love to get a cheap hardware based PVR (no computers) that is like a digital VCR that can handle high quality recordings and playbacks and use over the air (OTA) broadcasts.

Reg Article on the Surge in IPTV

Interestingly the Reg has an article titled Industry goes mad for IPTV [theregister.co.uk]. From the article:"There was a queue at IPTV Forum in London last week, all the way back past the lifts and round into the bar area. That was the first statement about what should have been yet another unsurprising show about IPTV, that there is real main stream interest out there now and everyone wants to get in on the action.".

"IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) [wikipedia.org] describes a system where a digital television service is delivered to subscribing consumers using the Internet Protocol over a broadband connection."

Big business is moving in to try to corner the new tech. Big business hasn't changed much from the days of the first Robber Barons who would capture a trade passage and tax caravans.

What might prove interesting is that artists are seeing the possibility of going it on their own without being shackeled and thethered to a contract with an oligopolistic master.

Blogs

Normally, I don't mind Slashdot linking to blogs, especially those that don't contain ads. However, usually when Slashdot links to a blog (which is usually commentary), they also link to a reputable news source. Blog links by themselves don't cut it.

That said, what do folks think is going to happen to those of us that already have lifetime subscriptions?

None of the news articles are clear on this

What happens to those current subscribers who bought their TV whole-price and are paying $12.95/mo for the service?

Those new plans do not look competitive

to a cable/satellite DVR. If you can either pay $17/month for 3 years to TiVo, or $5/month indefinately to your cable/satellite operator, which one will you chose?

Renew your library card

Here's a thought: eBay your TiVo [ebay.com] and then go renew your library card [aadl.org].

The Comcast Initiative?

The snippet and blog both mention a "Comcast Initiative", making it sound like everyone knew about it: well, I'm a Comcast customer who hates Comcast's horribly designed DVR, and this is the first I've heard. The article says "more information is coming." Does anyone have any more information on this, such as what was previously reported?