Prediction Market Platform Kalshi Discloses First Insider Trading Enforcement Action (npr.org) 30
Kalshi, the prediction market platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has for the first time publicly disclosed the results of an insider trading investigation, naming an editor for YouTube's biggest creator as the offender.
The company identified Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, who it says traded around $4,000 on markets tied to the streamer and achieved "near-perfect trading success" on low-odds bets -- a pattern investigators flagged as suspicious. Kalshi froze Kaptur's account before he could withdraw any profits, fined him $20,000, suspended him for two years, and reported the case to the CFTC.
The company identified Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, who it says traded around $4,000 on markets tied to the streamer and achieved "near-perfect trading success" on low-odds bets -- a pattern investigators flagged as suspicious. Kalshi froze Kaptur's account before he could withdraw any profits, fined him $20,000, suspended him for two years, and reported the case to the CFTC.
Must be rampant... (Score:4, Insightful)
Insider trading markets (Score:5, Funny)
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There are two types of people there. Inside traders and suckers.
This is modded funny, but it's actually the truth. Many years ago my wife had an attractive female friend with a penchant for dating well-to-do men. Several of these were well-known players in a particular stock market. I distinctly remember one occasion where she was explicitly told that a stock was going to rise dramatically on a certain date, and that she would do well to invest beforehand. She shared this information with family members, and they profited handsomely. I realized at that moment that anyon
prediction markets are under fire from state gamei (Score:2)
prediction markets are under fire from state gameing boards for offering sporting betting.
they want to work with the CFTC? but not state gam (Score:2)
they want to work with the CFTC? but not state gameing?
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and how do they hope to get the $$$ from that fine (Score:2)
and how do they hope to get the $$$ from that fine?
And in court will they give source code / other info they have?
This is gambling (Score:2, Informative)
It really shows how lawless our country has become that this wasn't immediately shut down.
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A wager is a wager regardless of how you enter into it. And sports gambling is already betting on real world events; and the Black Sox, Pete Rose, and more recent NBA scandals all show why that's bad.
This is not accurate. You are using the word "wager" as a conclusory general term. This is essentially a variant of the non-central fallacy https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncentral-fallacy-the-worst-argument-in-the-world [lesswrong.com]. First, things like sports gambling is bad because it corrupts sports and is highly addictive. Prediction markets don't have that element. And no, they aren't the same sort of real world thing. There's a massive difference between sports games which might as well be
Don't allow bets on an individuals decisions (Score:2)
This does sound like a breach of a contract for profit. And that's outside of my comment below, but related.
If an organization creates bets on single individual's decision (this wasn't the case in this case, but it is in many cases...), they should EXPECT that individual to mess with the situation. And that is not insider trading, even if it is wagering with a guarantee to win (it's an investment at that point, not a wager, an investment in one's self through action).
Related question to that.
Should a boxer
the NFL does not allow individual's decision bets (Score:2)
the NFL does not allow individual's decision bets in legal sports books but this site allows individual's decision bets?
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Should a boxer be able to wager the he/she wins a fight? I would think so, they are wagering on their skill, putting it on the line.
You're just asking the boxer to collude with the person they're fighting.
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so an boxer should be allowed to take an dive an make more in bets then the win prize?
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$4,000? (Score:2)
They're going after the big dogs I see.
Wow, much success, such control! (Score:2)
Can't beat the house? (Score:2)
Ok, I concede this guy was clearly doing actual fraud, but this reminds me of how casinos can refuse to give you winnings if they suspect you cheated. Like, if you beat very high odds, that means you cheated. So what's the point of gambling? Almost everyone who gambles believes that a certain pattern will show up or that some force will act in their favor and win them money. In effect, most people think they're cheating. Nobody prays to their statistics professor to help them win, but literally nobody sane
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I don't gamble alone cause I know Jesus has better things to ignore than helping me win.
Planting dinosaur bones as a prank?
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useless (Score:2)
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"near-perfect trading success" on low-odds bets
Knowing the detection metric, that's going to get caught as well as long as your friends and family aren't degenerate gamblers who take other losing positions on other low-odds bets.
And in the realm of insider trading that strategy is definitely not new and has gotten both the insider and their family in hot water.
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