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Cringely Posits Adobe's Purchase by Apple 245

Posted by Zonk from the now-what-is-he-talking-about dept.
An anonymous reader writes to mention another Robert Cringely piece discussing Apple's future. In his latest article, he lays out some goals for Apple on its quest to desktop dominance. An important link in this chain is Apple's purchase of Adobe Systems. From the article: "Adobe has already made one feint away from Mac development that required personal pressure from Steve Jobs on John Warnock to reverse. If Apple kinda-sorta embraces Windows enough for Adobe to question whether continued development for the native OS X platform is still warranted, well, then Apple WILL just become another Dell, which isn't what Steve Jobs wants. Steve wants Windows applications to run like crazy on his hybrid platform but to look like crap. In his heart of hearts, he'd still like to beat Microsoft on the merits, not just by leveraging some clever loophole. So he needs the top ISVs who are currently writing for OS X to continue writing for OS X, and that especially means Adobe."
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Cringely Posits Adobe's Purchase by Apple More

Cringely Posits Adobe's Purchase by Apple

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  • Mod article '-1, Troll' (Score:5, Insightful)

    by McDutchie ( 151611 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:10PM (#15222520) Homepage
    Every article by Cringely, Dvorak, and the like needs to be instantly moderated '-1, Troll' with extreme prejudice. Too bad /. does not have article moderation.

    • Re:Mod article '-1, Troll' (Score:4, Insightful)

      by osviews.com ( 955101 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:13PM (#15222544)
      Whis would this article be labeled a troll? Because you don't like the ramifications?

      I think Cringely's article is probable though impracticle... at least for the time being.

      Microsoft isn't going to drop office for Mac... they make too much money from it... but if they ever do, Apple has a backup plan [osopinion.com] in the way of Windows virtualization.
    • Here's a question for discussion: Would we find these authors so trollish if everything they wrote were not posted immediately to slashdot?

    • Re:Mod article '-1, Troll' (Score:5, Insightful)

      by nine-times ( 778537 ) <nine.times@gmail.com> on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:15PM (#15222564) Homepage
      Well, the only problem is when people try to turn this sort of editorial of "I think Apple could/should buy Adobe" into a rumor of "Apple is planning to buy Adobe!"

      I mean, if you're a journalist, paid to analyze technology trends and make wild shot-in-the-dark predictions of what might possibly happen one day, or you're writing an article of what business moves might benefit one group or another, that's perfectly fine. Cringly thinks Apple should buy Adobe, and I'm sure lots of people could write articles on why they think Apple shouldn't.

      Let's just not let this get out of hand and become an actual rumor.

      • No let's start the most outragous rumor posible. Like oh I don't know.... Steve is trying to disrupt the strangle hold Microsoft has on web standards (through Explorer)by buying Adobe and geting his hands on PDF and Flash and that also he is, in fact, planning on replacing the ActionScript language with AppleScript. But you know some people might actually buy that line of Sh** so lets not use it
    • Every article by Cringely, Dvorak, and the like needs to be instantly moderated '-1...

      Yeah, 'cuz, you know, like, they work for Infoworld and PC Magazine and stuff an' they're all corporate shills an' stuff an'...

    • OT: Troll, Stupid, and Evil Tags are Trolls (Score:5, Informative)

      by HighOrbit ( 631451 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @04:13PM (#15223419)
      It seems like a good portion of the articles are getting tagged "Troll" or "Stupid" or "Evil".

      First of all, how does this help classify and search the articles? It doesn't, if every third article is "evil" and "troll".

      Secondly, please refresh your memory of what a "troll" is. Here is the official Slashdot definition.
      Troll -- A Troll is similar to Flamebait, but slightly more refined. This is a prank comment intended to provoke indignant (or just confused) responses. A Troll might mix up vital facts or otherwise distort reality, to make other readers react with helpful "corrections." Trolling is the online equivalent of intentionally dialing wrong numbers just to waste other people's time.
      Just because you think an article or comment is wrong and stupid does not make it a "troll". A "troll" is purposeful malicious misdirection intended to lead the discussion astray. Just because you disagree with Cringely, Dvorak, et al (and think they are totally off the wall), it does not mean they are trolls. They may indeed be stupid, but they are not trolls. Any opinion presented constructively is not a troll, even if it is wrong.

      As far as I am concerned, the "tagging beta" should filter out all the "troll", "stupid", "evil", "FUD", and other non-helpful tags, because they are not objective descriptions to classify the article, but only negative opinion (and I think we can all read and form our own opinions).
      • . . . should indicate that a lot of us don't want to see articles like that on slashdot anymore.
      • A 'tag' is nothing but a majority vote. That means a large percentage of the readers things Cringley's posts are trolling. If you don't like it, deal.

        Tagging is about the benefit for the community, not for your personal benefit.
      • As far as I am concerned, the "tagging beta" should filter out all the "troll", "stupid", "evil", "FUD", and other non-helpful tags, because they are not objective descriptions to classify the article, but only negative opinion (and I think we can all read and form our own opinions).

        I can see your point about "troll", but strongly disagree about your other examples. In a story about SCO trying to scare Linux users, "fud" is perfectly reasonable - the story is about FUD, which is different than saying the

  • Oh please! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by winkydink ( 650484 ) * <sv.dude@gmail.com> on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:11PM (#15222530) Homepage Journal
    Hey, could that [an Adobe acquisition] be why Apple is rumored to have this week just laid-off its entire Aperture development group?

    Could be.

    Yeah, and it could be that the product never lived up to expectations and saw little market adoption so Apple decided it was time to cut their losses and focus their resources on something else.

    Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
    • hate having to write the same program 3 times for 3 different OSs. Or writing all this extra web code so that the site will run under the top 3 browsers.

      It seems that all this extra work would drive up the cost of a piece of software too. Any thoughts on why it would/wouldn't?
    • Aperture 1.1 looks like it addresses all the major issues with 1.0 and is starting to collect far more positive reviews.

      My guess is that a few contractors have been let go and other folks moved to other projects after helping with the product release and bug fixes. Aperture isn't going to be abandoned (go play with Lightroom Beta 2 if you want to see a crippled product).

    • Or it could be a fabrication (Score:5, Insightful)

      by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) * on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:26PM (#15223050)
      Or if you believe in going with the simplest possible theory, Apple is not in fact abandoning a product not even six months old that has had a major well-received update just recently and in fact has just restructured the team.

      Since Aperture is still being sold in the Apple store and the pages for the product are all still up, I know which theory I'd buy into!

      If you must believe something a little more juicy, how about an attempt by Think Secret (or someone behind it) to discredit Apple?

  • The Cringe of Embracing Windows (Score:5, Funny)

    by digitaldc ( 879047 ) * on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:11PM (#15222532)
    Steve wants Windows applications to run like crazy on his hybrid platform but to look like crap.

    I have seen it and, well at least it does run like crazy... [microsoft.com]

  • So the logic here is (Score:5, Funny)

    by noewun ( 591275 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:13PM (#15222543) Journal
    That Adobe will just walk away from ~$400 million/yr in software sales. From a quick persual of Adobe's most recent annual report and 10-K filings, I figure that's about how much Adobe makes a year from Mac software. This leads me to a question:

    What do call a CEO who makes the decision to chop $400 million off his company's profits?

    Unemployed.

    • Revenue vs. Profit (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Kadin2048 ( 468275 ) <.ten.yxox. .ta. .nidak.todhsals.> on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:15PM (#15222560) Homepage Journal
      What do call a CEO who makes the decision to chop $400 million off his company's profits?

      Although I agree with your sentiment, it's worth pointing out that $400M in revenue -- which would be sales figures -- does not translate into $400M in profit.

      Unless of course you're engaging in a little Enron-style math, that is. Software companies may have high margins, but they're not 100%.
      • You're right: lazy typing by me. The sentiment still stands, tho: Adobe makes a shitload of money off the Mac, and given Apple's entrenchment in desktop publusing/pre-press/design, it's as close to a guaranteed revenue stream as you can get. Steve Jobs may be a pain in the ass, but in the business world you learn to deal with pain in the ass clients and take their money.
        • The sentiment still stands, tho: Adobe makes a shitload of money off the Mac, and given Apple's entrenchment in desktop publusing/pre-press/design, it's as close to a guaranteed revenue stream as you can get. Steve Jobs may be a pain in the ass, but in the business world you learn to deal with pain in the ass clients and take their money.

          Not necessarily - I haven't looked at the filings you've mentioned - I gotta go soon. But a coulple of things to look for:

          How much are those sales costing Appl. Yeah, they

          • A good number of people use Adobe tools, especially Acrobat, because they're cross platform. If Adobe were to ditch OS X as a platform, I'd be quite surprised if they didn't lose market share on Windows. It's kind of like IT companies selling round the clock support. Very few companies will ever /use/ the after-hours support, but they go with the companies that offer it to increase their options should they ever need it. Another good parallel is the Wendy's tripple patty hamburger. Few people order it, but

          • Re:Revenue vs. Profit (Score:3, Interesting)

            by noewun ( 591275 )

            Maybe the ROI they're making on those sales isn't worth it. If you use that capital to make even more than $400 mill., then it'd be better to make the money work elsewhere.

            Maybe. I have no way of knowing what it costs Adobe to make Mac software, but I would imagine it isn't too high: all of Adobe's Mac products are Carbon/Codewarrior: I think Photoshop CS2 is, essentially, Photoshop 7 tarted up with some new features. Certainly 7 was the last version which could be called a must-have upgrade, and there

    • Re:So the logic here is (Score:3, Interesting)

      by hey! ( 33014 )
      I think the theory is that if Windows binaries run on MacOS, but not vice versa, and Adobe customers don't really have anywhere else to go, then Adobe is not seriously risking much of their gross sales, but their margins go way up. In effect, any cross platform glitches become Apple's problem.

    • Re:So the logic here is (Score:5, Funny)

      by vertinox ( 846076 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:40PM (#15223159)
      What do call a CEO who makes the decision to chop $400 million off his company's profits?

      Carly Fiorina [wikipedia.org]

      Well... And unemployed.

  • Hope not (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Midnight Thunder ( 17205 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:13PM (#15222545) Homepage Journal
    I really hope that Apple doesn't do what Cringley suggests and even if they do that it is squashed by the state department responsible for mergers and acquisitions, since:
        - Apple needs some healthy competition in this domain
        - Even though I am a Mac user, having a competitor in the PC domain also helps Apple keep on their toes
        - Adobe bought Macromedia, so in this field Apple would near a potential monopoly.

  • Gates Obliges Jobs (Score:5, Funny)

    by Illbay ( 700081 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:14PM (#15222549) Journal
    Steve wants Windows applications to run like crazy on his hybrid platform but to look like crap.

    Well, it's up to Jobs to make sure of the former, but MS has already done what it can to accomplish that latter.

  • Dvorak/Cringely + Apple/Google (Score:5, Insightful)

    by interiot ( 50685 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:14PM (#15222555) Homepage
    It's starting to become a cliche for Dvorak or Cringely to postulate on possible future moves by Apple or Google, and the crazier their suggestions, the more internet posters get riled up, and the more traffic gets driven to their site. Do they really have to pander to the lowest among internet posters?
    • I usually come to the discussions arising from these two trolls' articles, and I often even post, but I gave up clicking on the links to read their articles well over a year ago. I suggest everyone else does the same too.
    • Yeah cringley and Dvorak only post this drivel to drive traffic on their web sites. just like Slashdot and all the other news sites that have already posted Cringley/Apple/Adobe headlines today. But it's fun to read and dissect wild speculation. Otherwise there wouldn't be so many posts on /. to this column.

  • Cringely: The thinking man's Dvorak (Score:5, Insightful)

    by PCM2 ( 4486 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:18PM (#15222588) Homepage
    From the article:
    There's only one way to make that happen for sure, and that's for Apple to buy Adobe. Apple has the stock, they have the cash -- such a purchase would effectively cost Apple nothing, the market would like it so well.
    Uhhhhh... "cost Apple nothing," eh? Last I checked, Adobe's market cap [yahoo.com] was $23.65 billion. Apple's [yahoo.com] is not quite $60 billion. Just how much cash and stock does Cringely figure Apple wants to throw around?

    • Re:Cringely: The thinking man's Dvorak NO COST (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Nom du Keyboard ( 633989 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:45PM (#15222758)
      cost Apple nothing," eh? Last I checked, Adobe's market cap was $23.65 billion. Apple's is not quite $60 billion.

      If Adobe stock were converted to new Apple shares that properly reflect the increased value of Apple + Adobe, it would cost them the amount of printing the new certificates and mailing them, which is essentially nothing. That assumes a friendly takeover/merger.

      • Re:Cringely: The thinking man's Dvorak NO COST (Score:4, Informative)

        by William_Lee ( 834197 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:00PM (#15222872)
        If Adobe stock were converted to new Apple shares that properly reflect the increased value of Apple + Adobe, it would cost them the amount of printing the new certificates and mailing them, which is essentially nothing. That assumes a friendly takeover/merger.

        This isn't how transactions work in public financial markets. It would cost Apple BILLIONS of dollars in stock and cash and/or debt in some combination to acquire Adobe friendly takeover or not. Adobe is a publicly traded company beholden to its shareholders. The board has a LEGAL obligation to the shareholders. They can't just hand over the company to Apple and print new certificates even if for some INSANE reason they wanted to in the interest of a "friendly" merger.

        The only way shareholders would approve a buyout is if it was at a significantly higher price than where Adobe currently trades (which as mentioned is $23.65 billion). Unless the fortunes of the overall stock market, or Adobe change dramatically, it will cost Apple a hell of a lot to acquire Adobe, friendly takeover or not.

        Even in an all stock transaction, existing Apple shareholders would pay for the transaction, as the value of their shares would be heavily diluted (new shares would be issued, making each existing share worth less).

        • Even in an all stock transaction, existing Apple shareholders would pay for the transaction, as the value of their shares would be heavily diluted (new shares would be issued, making each existing share worth less).

          Their shares aren't diluted if, while they hold the same number of shares, there are more shares total now in a larger and more valuable company. They own less, true, but of a proportionately more valuable entity (Apple + Adobe) overall. That should be a wash, unless Apple overpays for Adobe,

        • This isn't a zero sum game. There isn't any perticular reason it would be impossible for the shareholders of Adobe to be bought out at a premium (Albiet in freshly created Apple shares), and for Apple's share price to remain the same dispite the increase in outstanding shares.

          All that would be required for that to happen is for the market to percieve the value of Apple+Adobe as higher than the combined values of the two seperate companies.
    • I think the market cap issue is the only thing keeping Apple from buying Adobe. On the other hand, I bet Adobe will not stray from Apple since Steve Jobs most likely talked to Bruce Chizen and 'told' him, 'the moment Adobe moves away from Mac software development is the moment when Apple releases a Photoshop competitor for Windows and Mac.'

    • Apple doesn't like to go deeply into debt, so it would have to be a stock swap. Adobe has good earnings, so it might be doable. With the right deal, the Apple share price would stay about the same.

  • Wow. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by neoshroom ( 324937 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:19PM (#15222597)
    I think this is the first time Cringley is on to something. What he is onto isn't this Apple buying Adobe thing though. Its the following quote from the article stub:

    Steve wants Windows applications to run like crazy on his hybrid platform but to look like crap. In his heart of hearts, he'd still like to beat Microsoft on the merits, not just by leveraging some clever loophole.

    OS X running Windows apps in ugly gray, thats what he is onto. Its coming.

    __
    Elephant Essays [elephantessays.com] - Cover Letters, Research Papers, Editing

    • Re:Wow. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Bogtha ( 906264 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:26PM (#15222657)

      No, he's still missing the point.

      In his heart of hearts, he'd still like to beat Microsoft on the merits, not just by leveraging some clever loophole.

      No, "in his heart of hearts", he doesn't really care about Microsoft, because Apple compete against Dell and all the other hardware vendors. OS X is a differentiator in the hardware market, not a core product that they are competing against Microsoft with. Intel & Bootcamp fits nicely into that strategy, and I suspect he wouldn't care if 90% of the people who bought Macs ran Windows, because that 90% will have chosen Apple over Dell.

    • Re:Wow. (Score:5, Interesting)

      by drgroove ( 631550 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:30PM (#15222683)
      I agree completely. If Apple has access to the API as Cringley has stated in his past two articles, Apple in theory could enable OSX to launch WinXP apps inside a process similar to how it ran "Classic Mode" for OS9 apps. Imagine that, though - WinXP apps running inside OSX without XP itself running.

      Given that Vista isn't due until '07, and most orgs are still running apps from the Win2k days, being able to run Win2k/XP apps w/in a more secure OS would certainly be an attractive offering.

      • Re:Wow. (Score:3, Informative)

        by RzUpAnmsCwrds ( 262647 )
        If Apple has access to the API as Cringley has stated in his past two articles, Apple in theory could enable OSX to launch WinXP apps inside a process similar to how it ran "Classic Mode" for OS9 apps.

        In theory, yes. In practice, the Win32 API is very, very big. If you want any kind of application compatibility, you need to implement:

        - OLE / COM / DCOM
        - MFC
        - DirectX (DirectShow, DirectPlay, Direct3D, etc.)
        - The .NET CLR
        - Internet Explorer (many apps depend on it)
        - 100s of standard controls (e.g. ListView, e
    • OS X running Windows apps in ugly gray, thats what he is onto. Its coming.

      A monochrome Windows desktop would surely look better than all this cartoon crap they've been shoving at us since XP came out. The first thing I do with an XP machine is convert it to the 'classic' look (and turn off animations & sounds).

      Don't forget the awesome 'Platinum' scheme OS 9 had - that was a nice look.
    • I totally agree!

      Oh, wait. You said he's onto something.

      I first read that as he was on something.

      Nevermind.

  • Hey Cringely (Score:5, Funny)

    by everphilski ( 877346 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:20PM (#15222607) Journal
    When you and Dvorak are snuggled up in bed at night thinking up these crazy ideas how do you decide who gets which idea to write about the next day?

    -Curious on Slashdot

  • "There's no demand for a Windows version..." (Score:5, Interesting)

    by network23 ( 802733 ) * on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:24PM (#15222641) Journal

    Apple co-founded Adobe and owned part of Adobe.

    This would be the perfect deal. And then the sweet "sorry, we're cancelling Photoshop for Windows since there is no demand for a PC version".

    They have done that before too.

    We live in interesting times. And I love it.

    • This would be the perfect deal. And then the sweet "sorry, we're cancelling Photoshop for Windows since there is no demand for a PC version".

      While that would be sweet revenge, Adobe switched a while back from developing Photoshop in Code Warrior on a Mac, and then porting to Windows, to developing Photoshop in Visual Studio on a PC, and porting to Mac.

      Cutting the Windows version of Photoshop would be rather painful transition of their code-base at this point.

  • Crap (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Moby Cock ( 771358 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:24PM (#15222647) Homepage
    This is crap. Apple is not trying to dominate the desktop market. They are trying, and succeeding at producing very desirable products. Apple has carved out their boutique image carefully and they do NOT want to be another Dell. Apple is making alot of profit right now. They do not want to be the new Microsoft+Dell. Jobs would like his vision of the way OSs and computers "should be" to dominate, but he is not trying to position Apple to do this.
    • they do NOT want to be another Dell.

      And you've read Steve Job's mind on this. That he'd rather have tiny market share than be the biggest PC retailer (remember Apple is a hardware vendor) in the world. Yeah, that's the Steve we know -- thinking small as usual.

      • Yeah, that's the Steve we know -- thinking small as usual.

        Yep. He's certainly content to make those tiny little "boutique" movies, and let big ol' Disney have the lion's share of the family movie market. That's our Steve -- I'm sure he would find it insulting if his movies made a lot of money.

    • They are trying, and succeeding at producing very desirable products.

      Well, I'm not sure "desirable" is the right word when only 3% of the market wants them (the Mac, certainly the iPod is more popular).

      • Sorry about the car analogy... but I guess that BMWs are not desirable because they don't own most of the market... you are confusing the word 'desire' with the word 'purchase'.
      • Desirable doesn't really imply a large market share.Many people find a nice hot curry desirable but still I'd say curry makes up a relatively small percentage of the varieties of food consumned on a daily basis in the UK.

  • The merged company name will be . . . (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:26PM (#15222654)
    Taking the "A" from Adobe and the "pple" from Apple.

  • Why Do What MS Has Done? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by dakirw ( 831754 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:39PM (#15222724)
    If Apple bought Adobe, then they'd effectively be pursuing a strategy similar to Microsoft's - trying to control all major app vendors for the respective OS. It'd be costly for one thing, and might discourage other vendors from building on the platform. Not a great idea, in my opinion. Apple probably wants all the developer mindshare that they can get, but doing this is more Borg-like than anything else.

    • If Apple bought Adobe, then they'd effectively be pursuing a strategy similar to Microsoft's - trying to control all major app vendors for the respective OS. It'd be costly for one thing, and might discourage other vendors from building on the platform. Not a great idea, in my opinion.

      Actually, buying Adobe, rather than competing directly with them, would likely encourage developers and vendors. Most companies (and employees of companies) would not mind being acquired by Apple. Most investors would lov

  • John C. Dvorak acquired by Robert X. Cringley (Score:5, Funny)

    by drix ( 4602 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @02:50PM (#15222799) Homepage
    "News of a potential merger between these two rumor-mongering blowhards has been bouncing around San Jose for some time," said a source close to the deal. "After exhausting the n(n-1) array of potential merger rumors between companies as diverse as Google, Microsoft, General Motors, and ElectroPeru, the state-owned energy monopoly of Peru, both realized the only remaining avenue for generating baseless headlines and crucial name recognition was to themselves merge." Industry analysts speculated the new entity would assume the name Jobert K. Cringvorak, and continue publishing factually-inaccurate, worthless gossip headlines twice weekly in IT trade magazines.

    Morons. Why does this shit get posted here every week, clogging up my screen real estate. I want to read about motherboards.
  • This is why MacBookPro has a camera, guys, since Apple is about to buy eBay (which owns Skype).
    And this is why Skype added video in the last versions. See how it all makes sense?

    Cringely, my man, you're on the fast track turning into a "Dvorak".

  • From Adobe CEO Bruce Chizen own mouth... (Score:5, Informative)

    by joeblarnystone ( 681831 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:00PM (#15222873)

    He also said the recently announced Boot Camp software, which allows Intel-based Mac computers to run the Windows operating system, won't have a big impact on Adobe's Mac software lineup.

    "For the majority of our products, writing directly to the Macintosh operating system is an advantage to the customers, and you will see us continue to do so and not work through Boot Camp or the Windows emulator because we think that will not be good for the majority of our customers," he said.

    Soure: Computer World Article [computerworld.com]

  • It's all starting to make sense! (Score:3, Funny)

    by jkabbe ( 631234 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:00PM (#15222878)
    I am starting to see how the plan goes. Witness:

    Apple buys Adobe.
    Apple implements Windows API in Leopard.
    Apple kills off OS X versions of Adobe products.
    Apple fires OS X developers from Adobe (they can hang with the Aperture team).
    Profit!

    Is it just me, or is Cringley starting to enter Dvorak territory?
  • Look...so many people say Cringley is full of S**T, but where are all those people who said it would be a cold day in Hell when Apple moved to Intel chips? I seem to recall most of them saying if Apple tried it, it would cause the company to go into a tailspin.

    All of those predictions so far don't seem to be holding up.

    Apple buying Adobe? I don't think it's a matter of IF..but a matter of WHEN. Apple, financially is in better position now then any other time in their history (thanks to the IPOD). By buying

  • adobe? (Score:2, Informative)

    by derniers ( 792431 )
    Adobe would cost about $25 billion, or so, with $4-5 billion in sales; Apple's cap is around $60 billion with about $20 billion in sales...... Apple can clearly afford it but it is not clear that Adobe is a key to the future, the future is probably more in the media center thingie......
    • Apple offers every Adobe shareholder X shares of the combined stock in Apple/Adobe, where X reflects a favorable valuation of Adobe stock relative to Apple. Cost -- basically zero (printing new share certificates as someone said).

  • He is insane!! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Enrique1218 ( 603187 )

    I finally figure out how he comes up with these illogical predictions. Cringley is in insane!!! The first line says it all.

    Over the past three weeks, we've laid out in this column

    He uses WE to describe himself but he is the only one writing the articles. He obviously has multiple personality disorder. There is more than one person in there and apparently no one is home. Though, he could also think he is a Borg, but that too is equally insane.

  • A better thesis: (Score:3, Interesting)

    by ZoneGray ( 168419 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:12PM (#15222969) Homepage
    Here's my take. Aperture wasn't doing well, and it was competing against Adobe's Lightroom. Apple, meanwhile, is anxious for Adobe CS3 to ship, which currently is scheduled for Q1 of 2007. But Apple wants it in time for Christmas sales. In their last quarterly report, Apple execs said that they're working with Adobe to accelerate the launch of CS3, if possible, and that the lack of Universal software from Adobe was holding back sales of the Intel Macs. So I think they made a deal. Maybe we'll see the CS3 launch advanced.

    Makes more sense than a freaking acquisition.

  • I dunno... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by suzerain ( 245705 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:29PM (#15223070)
    Look, Cringeley's talking out of his ass. That's his job.

    But I don't see why people here are pooh-poohing the idea of Apple buying Adobe so much. I mean, forgetting about what you want, and focusing on what is good for Apple.

    There are two things that will really harm (if not kill) Apple: (1) no Office; (2) no Photoshop.

    However, of the two, I say #2 is even more important for Apple...Apple's core market is still graphics, despite all the mainstream press they've been getting. Without Photoshop there effectively is no OS X.

    Secondly, Apple bought Final Cut Pro from Macromedia, they acquired DVD Studio Pro from (who was it? some company that started with 'A'), they bought Logic. Are any of these pieces of software Apple's 'core' business? No, they aren't. I remember I was more than a little surprised to see Apple even acquire these pieces of software. Not only have they acquired them, they have redeveloped them into really nice apps. So clearly, part of their strategy is to provide extremely nice pro apps for their own OS.

    One segment of pro apps they have avoided -- I am sure partially to not piss off Adobe -- is graphics. They lack a pro 3D app, and they lack a pro 2D app (though by working CoreImage into the OS, they have provided tools that programmers can use to recreate 75% of what Photoshop does easily). Further, Adobe controls the PDF format (which Apple uses fir display in their OS).

    I dunno...I think Adobe would be a pretty much perfect fit for Apple. Other than Premiere (which sucks anyway), very little of their work seems to overlap, and then Apple would have a complete suite of pro apps guaranteed to run on OS X (and if they really wanted to be shitty, they could discontinue the Windows versions, and leave Microsoft high and dry).

    I mean, if this became too much of a distraction for Apple, they could spin off a separate software company (a la FileMaker), but other than potential distractions, I fail to see how acquiring Adobe would be all that bad for Apple, and I can certainly see a lot of potential upside in the thought.

    • Re:I dunno... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Feneric ( 765069 )

      I suppose there's even the possibility that they could then use the MS-Windows version of Photoshop as a bargaining chip to encourage Microsoft to continue the Mac version of MS-Office. True, the loss of all the Adobe products wouldn't kill MS-Windows, but it would definitely have an impact. And since Microsoft already makes money from the Mac version of MS-Office, it probably doesn't need too much encouragement to keep it going...

  • Cringely in the same article goes on about Apple replacing Microsoft Office stating "In case Mac Office is withdrawn"??

    If Cringely had done a minimum of research, he might remember that Apple and Microsoft just signed a new agreement to keep Office for Mac around for a minimum of 5 new years. He might also remember that Apple is supporting Microsofts new, open XML file formats.

    Apple is not going to be so stupid as to let Mac users have to rely on reverse engineering MS Office file formats, when they per da

    • Trust? (Score:3, Insightful)

      by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) *
      If Cringely had done a minimum of research, he might remember that Apple and Microsoft just signed a new agreement to keep Office for Mac around for a minimum of 5 new years. He might also remember that Apple is supporting Microsofts new, open XML file formats.

      I see. And you fully trust Microsoft to honor that agreement if it does not suit them?

      Sure if there's no compelling reason not to they will honor it because they make a lot of money doing so. But if you'd looked over the Slashdot headlines you'd not

  • I Think He's Got Something There (Score:3, Funny)

    by Bacon Bits ( 926911 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @03:58PM (#15223296)
    The overpriced hardware vendor buys the overpriced software vendor! Brilliant!
  • ...assuming, that is, they aren't the same person. Has anyone ever seen the two of them together?
  • ... for many reasons, among them his awesome feats of wireless (part 1 [pbs.org], part 2 [pbs.org]) but recently, he really seems to have gone off the deep end. Not as far as Dvorak, but he's getting there. Of course, only time will tell if he's right, but as for this week's column, I doubt Apple will buy Adobe, and I doubt MS Office will die anytime soon. Not only will it not be defeated, it'll still be available on Macs--natively.

    There are many things I could say about this. Here's just one: if OpenOffice can't defeat MS Off

  • I like the color... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by J. Random Luser ( 824671 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @04:55PM (#15223788)
    of Cringely's balloon, but I don't know how far it'll fly:
    Now if Apple's old cross-licensing deal with Microsoft also gives them compatibility with the older binary Office formats, it could give them something not even Microsoft has at the moment -- support for ALL Microsoft Office formats, past, present, and future.
    My emphasis added. So Cringeley is admitting he doesn't know the detail of permitted backwards compatability in the cross-licensing deal. And I have a curley one for him: I have people in this office who are still using MS Word 5.1 in Classic mode on MacOS 10.4, because it is faster and more reliable than Office 11. I would dearly love to move these people to OOo, yes even the clunky X-11 version. But while Office 11 & 2k3 can read Word 5 files, OOo 2.0 cannot ....

  • Guys, Apple is just like Porsche (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Nice2Cats ( 557310 ) on Friday April 28, 2006 @10:34PM (#15225534)
    Everytime somebody says something about Apple wanting to "dominate the desktop", stop reading. In certain ways, Apple is just like a certain German car company, Porsche: They make fantastically engineered, kick-ass cool products for the high end of the market, and they make a killing financially while doing so. Porsche doesn't want to become another Ford or GM (take a look at GM to see why) and Apple doesn't want to be a Dell (take a look at a Dell to see why). Not everybody wants to rule the world, because it usually doesn't make business sense.

    This whole "wants to be the biggest" thing is beyond me, unless it has something to do with Freudian hangups on the part of the commentators. Get over it.

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