Tesla Deliveries Are Down 31% From Last Quarter -- But Up 110% From Last Year (forbes.com) 94
An anonymous reader quotes Forbes:
Tesla's stock dropped 8% Thursday on the news that Q1 deliveries fell 31% from the previous quarter. However, being a seasonal business, car companies usually compare their results against the same quarter from the previous year. On that basis, virtually all of the major car companies have said Q1 sales will be flat to 7% lower than last year. In contrast, Tesla's deliveries are up 110% from last year. From the one year perspective, Tesla is the only car company that is growing...
Yesterday's headlines which focused on the 31% decline are factually correct but misleading. Moreover, Tesla said that delays in deliveries to Europe and China caused "a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally..." Had Tesla managed the increased deliveries in Europe and China a little better, they might have come close to Wall Street's expectations.
On Friday, Tesla's stock bounced up 2.68%.
Yesterday's headlines which focused on the 31% decline are factually correct but misleading. Moreover, Tesla said that delays in deliveries to Europe and China caused "a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally..." Had Tesla managed the increased deliveries in Europe and China a little better, they might have come close to Wall Street's expectations.
On Friday, Tesla's stock bounced up 2.68%.
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Because they respond to emotion and not logic.
Do you have any other questions?
Re:Tesla is a fraud (Score:5, Informative)
Tesla is a fraud. It is Theranos...
How so? Are they not electric cars? Do they not function as cars?
but they make explosive electric cars.
Electric cars do not explode, Tesla or otherwise. In the event a damaged battery cell, a cascade reaction can occur in which the battery slowly burns the car but never explode. However, ICE cars have been known to explode because they are powered by a combustible fuel source and a collision can cause the gasoline to leak. When the leaking gasoline meets a small ignition source the vehicle is soon engulfed in a fireball.
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"They were still moving, but we couldn't get them out because the fire was too intense," a man who tried to help told Local 10 News.
https://www.local10.com/news/l... [local10.com]
Re:Tesla is a fraud (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not the same thing. Theranos advertised a product which they never actually delivered. That they could do a variety of blood tests with a small blood sample which they did not.
Tesla sells an actual product that does work as advertised.
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They didn't just advertise it. They put on fraudulent "demonstrations" to potential investors.
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Not just to investors. I was more unfortunate than that. They actually made available these blood testing services which simply provided totally bogus analysis results. Or in the case where the analysis were reliable the tests were conducted with machines other than their own.
The consensus seems to be it is not possible to make reliable testing with the minuscule amount of blood they claimed was necessary nor with blood samples taken in the finger like they claimed.
I think everyone agrees that electric cars
Re:Tesla is a fraud (Score:4, Informative)
You might argue about the financial viability of Tesla or it's business model but even their competitors think their product are solid technology wise for what they are.
What they have are manufacturing and quality control issues.
It is not surprising they missed their target deliveries this quarter. Their logistics system is dysfunctional. Since deliveries this quarter were mostly for European and Asian markets, i.e. where the remaining high-end customers still to be served are, this made it even worse. Did you catch the news about a bunch of Model 3's stuck in customs in China some a couple of weeks back because of a labeling issue? Or how Elon made Tesla employees personally deliver vehicles to customers to meet their numbers? Those are just some of the issues. Their logistics suck.
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Tesla's cars are real and do work. Some idiosyncratic design choices but that's between the seller and the potential customer.
What it is not clear that Tesla has is a successful business model sustainable for more than... about the amount of time it has been in business. Historically it has always been possible to launch a new luxury brand, but having satisfied the demand from their intial customers it has also been very easy for the new luxury brand to go out of business and most have. GM, Nissan, and so
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What they have are manufacturing and quality control issues.
Yes, there are manufacturing and quality control issues, but those are not the only challenges. The current talking points attempt to pivot away from the elephant in the room, which is that Tesla's largest market may be trending toward saturation, hence the emphasis on Europe and China. Part of that potential decrease in demand comes from the sunsetting of the US federal tax credit. However, if some of that decrease comes from saturation of the potential market, then that is a big concern. The practical
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Tesla's largest market may be trending toward saturation, hence the emphasis on Europe and China
Tesla's largest market to date hasn't even remotely saturated and the federal tax credit has rarely come into the consideration of those buying luxury cars. Tesla's expansion into Europe and China has necessitated a cheap platform and for that they needed to start getting an affordable car on the street. The expansion is just that ... expansion.
Even a company in a completely open an unsaturated market benefits from expansion in this brave new world of demanding perpetually and steadily increasing profits.
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Tesla's largest market may be trending toward saturation, hence the emphasis on Europe and China
Tesla's largest market to date hasn't even remotely saturated and the federal tax credit has rarely come into the consideration of those buying luxury cars. Tesla's expansion into Europe and China has necessitated a cheap platform and for that they needed to start getting an affordable car on the street. The expansion is just that ... expansion.
Even a company in a completely open an unsaturated market benefits from expansion in this brave new world of demanding perpetually and steadily increasing profits.
For Tesla's sake, I hope what you're saying is true. However, sacrificing the current stable market for an emerging future market when the company still needs to watch cash flow is a strange decision, unless the current stable market isn't that stable. Tesla admitted to pulling in Q1 sales into the previous Q4 in order to take advantage of the federal tax credit sunset, so even Tesla recognizes the impact of that sunset on sales. Plus, Tesla explained the extra $2k discount as a compensation for the suns
Not seasonality that cause sequential Q rev drop (Score:5, Insightful)
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Yes. 1Q19 demand was pulled into 4Q18, and at the moment they still have thousands of units on ships in transit to China and Europe, effectively pushing those deliveries into 2Q19. So last quarter in particular was a low point in deliveries.
They're largely filling preexisting orders (Score:5, Interesting)
As I've said before, the hundreds of thousands of people on the Model 3 waitlist means you can't view an increase in deliveries as an equivalent increase in customers. They're simply backfilling orders that already existed, so the 110% growth is just measuring increase in production. Depending on the rate that people on the waitlist are giving up and moving on, net customer demand could actually be decreasing.
The real test will come when the waitlist is eliminated -- then QoQ or YoY will actually measure deltas in customer demand.
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Keep it coming, cowards -- I have plenty of karma. The truth will remain the truth.
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Oh. The. Truth. It. So. Hurts. Must. Squelch.
Re:They're largely filling preexisting orders (Score:5, Informative)
Thoughtful and informative post. There are two factors that might be added to the list:
* Having driven an electric car (Volt) for six months now IMHO electrics are superior to ICE for 80% of USian use cases (and to me more enjoyable, but that's a matter of preference)
* The US alone spends about a a half-trillion dollars of taxpayer money per year subsidizing the oil industry with everything from drilling credits to Superfund cleanups to military garrisoning of the major oil producing regions of the world, so the market for ICE vehicles is not exactly undistorted.
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The US is 85% urban, and the vast majority of driving is within the urban/suburban/exurban zone. There are also ~225,000 gas stations in the US and somewhere between 10 billion and 100 billion electric outlets.
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Well you can never expect them to compete with Ford across the board at current battery prices.
Tesla simply can't cover the bottom half of the market which is where most car sales actually are.
Not most of the profits though.
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Keep in mind that Tesla has started shipping cars to Europe and China. Last I saw, they were making 7000 cars a week.
I do think Tesla may be reaching the limits of the American customers who will pay above $35K to get a fancier Model 3 now instead of waiting for the $35K model to actually ship. There are a lot of people who are waiting for the $35K car and when it starts selling, Tesla will sell all they can make, at least for a few years.
Tesla promised that the $35K Model 3 was about to ship, but it hasn'
Thanks for the analysis (Score:5, Insightful)
Thank you for posting that. I was wondering where the mislead was, since all the recent expert analysis seemed reasonable and rational.
In case anyone hasn't been following the Tesla saga (most people, I imagine), public sentiment about the company is completely and totally driven by a sense of profit for the customers of the people writing the sentiment. If a fund's customers would profit by the stock tanking, then they try to bring that about by writing misleading predictions of doom and gloom.
The Tesla target price is all over the map - from from a low of 180 to a high of 500 [nasdaq.com].
Tesla used to be the most shorted stock in history, and still has significant short interest [nasdaq.com]. Roughly $11 b is betting that the stock will tank, and this results in enormous incentive to bring that about.
Last summer it was "Tesla will need another round of financing, we're certain", then Tesla paid its debt obligation in cash from profits.
Last month it was "Musk violated the SEC agreement", by tweeting information that was available in the published documents.
Today it's "interest has dried up". Wait a half a year and see if the trend is correct.
It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers. The stock doesn't go up or down based on whether they make a profit - it goes up or down based on whether it meets or exceeds *expectations* of profit.
Ugh!
It's literally impossible to get good stock information about Tesla at this point, and this will probably be true going forward for several years.
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Yeah, last summer Elon went crazy, but the most recent bout was the SEC being vindictive, and the judge basically recognized that and told them to work it out.
Re:Thanks for the analysis (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't agree with people buying a BMW. That doesn't mean that I would call BMW's stock price overvalued, just because their cars don't fit my personal taste. I have to accept that other people want other things in a car than me. And the same is valid for you and your opinion of Tesla's offerings. They don't matter at all for the stock price of TSLA. They are just your personal taste.
Re: Thanks for the analysis (Score:4, Interesting)
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It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers. The stock doesn't go up or down based on whether they make a profit - it goes up or down based on whether it meets or exceeds *expectations* of profit.
Well, yeah. If you expected your retirement fund to make 20% in a given year and it only made 3%, would you be giddy that it still "made a profit"?
Stock is priced based on a lot of assumptions about current and future performance. If it comes to light that some of those assumptions were off, the price adjusts to reflect the new information. We can and often do debate whether the price adjustment is proportionate or disproportionate to the change in the underlying assumptions, but the concept shouldn't be
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It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers. The stock doesn't go up or down based on whether they make a profit - it goes up or down based on whether it meets or exceeds *expectations* of profit.
This is how the stock market works for pretty much every company. To pretend Tesla is the only one impacted by this sort of behavior is rather silly. And those expectations don’t generally get pulled out of thin air... they are based on many factors, including forecasts and sales targets stated by the companies themselves.
Anyone more than ten years old has seen that the stock market can and does sometimes behave completely irrationally. But it’s also true that fans of a company (or individual) w
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Tesla is different, they are actively being attacked by the fossil fuellers via hedge funds, for obvious reason, they do not want an electric car company to succeed. Problem is it is too late, https://www.caranddriver.com/b... [caranddriver.com], Tesla are no longer alone in that field and are now facing real competition from other electric vehicle manufacturers. Honestly, depending upon how long you expect to keep you vehicle, it is starting to become unwise to buy and infernal combustion engine because the resale value is v
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I’m long Tesla, but their real problem is demand is drying up for the Model S and X, due to demand being pulled forward, cannibalization from the Model 3, and ultimately expectations of a refresh.
There is also the secondary factors surrounding pricing and policy changes, but that is likely more minor.
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The reason there is such a massive short position in Tesla is because many sophisticated investors look for companies with exactly this profile - valuation far exceeding current earnings. You average investor does not short shares, and the type of inv
Re: Thanks for the analysis (Score:1)
Being short is a question of timing... TSLA short have lost billions and billions for the last 5 years, short investor in AMD have even lost more money. Short squeez are not a legend, and people are also waiting for this,
disadvantages (Score:1)
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Eventually EV makers will find out that there is a limited market of people who can work around the current disadvantages of an EV.
Eventually EV makers will resolve that problem, by reducing or eliminating the current disadvantages of an EV.
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Electric cars are already more convenient than gas cars today — for those who can charge at home, or who can park at night any place where they have access to electricity. Going to the gas station is a nuisance, believe it or not. Plugging your car in when you come home takes five seconds, not five minutes. And then there's the superior driving experience to consider.
Even on road trips, we're still looking at one or two 20-30 minute charging stops per day, which doesn't seem like any great burden.
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Basically, I think most cars made by most companies now are very ugly. Teslas are the exception; they're sleek and clean looking. (And the homely, awkward Tesla Model X is the exception to the exception.)
Model 3 Cannibalizing Sales? (Score:2)
Could the Model 3 be cannibalizing sales?
Model 3 deliveries are up 522.25%, but Model S and X deliveries are down 44.50%
In 1Q 2018, Tesla delivered:
11,730 Model S
10,070 Model X
8,180 Model 3
In 1Q 2019, Tesla delivered:
12,100 Model S and X combined (Tesla didn't break down S and X deliveries separately)
50,900 Model 3
Maybe the Model S and Model X are getting dated and in need of a redesign and update? Cars usually have a 5-6 year model (generation) run before a completely redesigned model hits the lots.
what a shit summary. (Score:2)