Over 2.5 Billion Cellular Connections Now Active 168
An anonymous reader writes "It appears that humankind has managed to spread cellular technology like a virus. About 2.5 billion cellular connections exist in the world today, according to an estimate from the GSM Association.
It took 20 years to reach 1 billion connections, three years to reach 2 billion connections and the market is moving to reach its third billion in a period of just over two years.
Not surprisingly, the countries with fastest growth are the 'emerging nations.'"
At last, the ??? has been found! (Score:4, Funny)
Step 2: Re-sell w/ sewn-in camera cell phone
Step 3: Profit!
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I'm sorry to inform you, sir, but I have prior art.
Where is it you say? I'm wearing it, baby!
similar (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:similar (Score:5, Funny)
Funny... (Score:2)
No Ludditism here... (Score:2)
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Just this evening i was sssh'd by my 17 month old son who was trying to watch "The Goodies" when i got a phone call
Can't remember being sssh'd before that though.
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When in hell did it become socially acceptable to receive a call at your table at a restaurant? Not McDonalds but a typical restaurant that actually has a dress code.
Proper manners would dictate to excuse yourself from the table and take the call elsewhere rather than talking extremely loudly and then giving dirty looks at other patrons when you can't hear over other people talking.
Sorry for the ra
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Yes, your an infant. Now shut the hell up.
Tom
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There's my way to fix cell phones & pagers when making presentations, particularly larger audiences (the larger, the better):
"Before I begin, I will forewarn you to silence your cell phones and pagers now. If we hear a familiar tone, you'll undoubtedly rush out of the room as though God is about to kill himself and you're the only one working the Suicide Hotline. When you return, you will come up on stage and sing your high school fight song or you *will* be escorted out of this room. If you're going
Some more facts: (Score:5, Insightful)
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A better measure is per capita deployment where some European countries have passed 100% (more people with 2 or more cellphones than people with none at all).
Or even small "Developing" countries like Jamaica with Over 2 Million Cellphones and a population of 2.7 Million.
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And how many of those 2M cell phones are disposable?
I think there's some monkey business with the statistics (trot out Twain).
I'm certain there's some differences between "permanent" and "disposable" affecting the overall total.
I do have a good cell phone story: even though they are personal cell phones, the missus gets a discount because of where she works - word of mouth to co-workers & whatnot. Anyway, a couple of years ago, we decided to introduce my in-laws[1] who are (now) in their mid-70
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Re:yeah right (Score:4, Funny)
Oh, and if I'm the first one to think of it, then PATENT PENDING! Patent pending, patent pending, patent pending.
Patent pending.
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Also, it has become a rather popular business to buy several cel
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Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popularity (Score:5, Interesting)
Something similar is true for public transport (Score:2)
Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular (Score:3, Insightful)
Not really, as you can dial into and out of the cellular network from/to an existing landline network.
People buy mobile phones because they see value in them; whether that's witnessing first hand the usefulness of being able to be contacted (nearly) anywhere on the planet, or simply being seen to be important enough to have a mobile phone. The value isn't really brought from the network itself, though.
Bollocks (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Fact:Metcalfe's Law Explains Cell-Phone Popular (Score:5, Insightful)
People who had a landline were already connected to the network - getting a cell gives no value from the viewpoint of giving access to the network.
The primary reason cell use has spread so much - specifically in "emerging" nations - is because it is MUCH cheaper to set up a cellular system and spread access than it is to do with landlines.
Another big reason would be the mix of convenience and quality of service. In my case, I ditched my landline 2 years ago because it was pointless. I like having a phone with me all the time. If I want to be unavailable, I can put it on silent mode. A phone that sits at home - a place where I spend maybe 4 waking hours a day - just seemed pointless. I don't think I'm the only person who thinks that way.
My hope is that since cells are now virtually everywhere, people who used to feel the need to talk at the top of their lungs to let everyone know they had one will now see it as a sign of class to speak softly on them. I am doing my best to encourage people to do just that - when I am on the bus or train and someone is having a LOUD conversation on their phone, I will look at them raptly, and, if they ever fall silent, I will say "Oooh, what's he saying now?" When they inevitably say something along the lines of "this is a private conversation" I explain that, at the volume they were speaking, it was anything but. Of course, I say it with a great deal of charm, so I have yet to be bopped in the nose.
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cellphones not directly linked to users (Score:2)
Re:Some more facts: (Score:5, Informative)
But it's not that surprising really. I've alwasy understood that the economics of the mobile network (feel free to shoot me down here since I'm relaying and might have got this wrong) are essentially controlled by population density. There is a point beyond which it becomes uneconomic to develop a digital cell network due to the limited range of the transmitters (about 11 miles nominal range the last time I looked).
So it's not really surprising that the largest developments are in the developing countries and specifically Asia. There are large VERY densely populated urban centres which, until recently, had no cell coverage. So even selling call time at a low rate will mean that companies can recover their investment very quickly. So I would guess that the graph in the article will have to flatten out, or the emphasis will shift to different markets as the large urban areas in Asia and South America become saturated with providers in the same way as European cities are.
In Europe after the inital rapid development of the urban networks the coverage of rural areas was very slow. Scotland was a prefect example. Over half the population of the country lives in a 50 mile strip along the central belt of the country. Fine. Great coverage. Go up to the highlands....and until recently it was a very different story. The landscape and low population density made it a costly investment to cover these areas. You would have to expect that the same thing will happen in these new markets. Explosive development in e.g Mumbai followed by a much, much slower growth over the country as a whole. I'd love to see a distribution map of this stuff.
Anyway back to the original point. I've always understood that the reason why the service in the U.S. was rubbish was that, once the urban areas were well covered there was no real impetus to extend that to the gulfs between cities.
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OTOH if you're going to be travelling through small town America, can't get to a landline and *must* stay in touch then satphones are a good investment.
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they key difference in the new markets is that cellphones are coming from a different starting point.
here in britan landlines are a regulated monopoly that can be obtained anywhere without spending insane sums of money.
in the emerging markets the cellphones afaict have virtually
Re:Some more facts: (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Some more facts: (Score:5, Informative)
I never quite worked this one out myself, I think it has just been accepted without really questioning why. It is another reason why most of us (in the UK) have mobiles and text each other (although a simple text message can often turn into a big text conversation and end up being more expensive than just calling the person in the first place)
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Calling from what? Landline or mobile?
Costing to whom? Caller or callee?
Normal phone call is what? Landline to landline? Mobile to mobile?
Note that I have very little experience with European day-to-day usage of mobile phones.
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You lucky bastard, whereever you are; In Ireland, ringing a Vofdafone customer from an O2 mobile during the day is 70cents (euro) a minute (that's about $1), and things don't get much cheaper during the evening, either. It's a fucking disgrace, but no-one seems to ever do anything about it.
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Do Americans still pay for the calls they receive?
Cheap compared to the US, though (Score:2)
Comparing per-minute costs is very misleading. For many users like myself, per-minute costs are almost irrelevant, because the monthly fees (or expired unused minutes in the case of prepaid) dominate. When you take all costs into account, European prices are _WAY_ lower, even though the European per-minute domestic airtime prices are much higher than their US counterparts. At least for my usage
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As for lifetime of the prepaid shelf-live, in holland there are eternal prepaid plans, your money can stay valid for as long as your phone is still in use. If it's not used (e.g. recieved a call) for a year or so they cut if off of course, but anyway else your money will stay valid. Very nice.
As for
Non-resident can't get prepaid in Germany? (Score:2)
That I'm not sure of. But for _infrequent_ callers, the EU is _definitely_ cheaper than the US. I know that because I'm an infrequent caller in both. In the UK, anyway, you can still buy a prepaid card with reasonably long shelf-life and use the minutes only when you need them. (In the US, that's impossible. You have to keep paying to keep the phone alive regardless of whether you chose a prepaid or monthly plan). Of course, I may be overgeneralizing
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I spent a small amount of time in the US, and surprisingly the tarrif structure and the talk time etc., plans available in India are far better than in the US
You know, you really shouldn't lump Europe with the US in terms of mobile penetration. Accordin
Ha! (Score:1)
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Are there enough digits in a phone number? (Score:5, Funny)
1,23-4,56-7,890
allows ~1.2445679 digits (some rounding error)
What do class 5 switches allow globally and whats the denomination?
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Because it's a US phone number, and the article is about other, forrin countries as well.
(MS)ISDN E.164 numbers are 15 digits, including the country code. Even the North American Numbering Plan can be expanded vastly, from 11 digits (the one counts!) to 15; a factor 10,000.
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Swoooosh! (Score:2)
Re:Are there enough digits in a phone number? (Score:5, Funny)
Pity him he doesn't know there is a whole world out there.
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global telephone numbers can be up to 15 digits (plus any prefix to dial out of the country you are calling from) and can't start with 0, that makes a possibility of 900,000,000,000,000 telephone numbers.
however in reality most numbers are shorter than this, e.g. a british number in international form is 2 digit country 10 digit (usually) national significant number. for 12 digits total.
the bottom line is some countries may need to renumber thier domestic plans to longe
If you want to be more drammatic (Score:4, Interesting)
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Emerging nations? (Score:5, Interesting)
Despite that, Somebody sold 300,000 phones in a month. How? Because a prepaid cellphone with free incoming calls is exactly what you need when you are impoverished. Looking for work? Put the number on your resume. Family members in a developed country? Give them the number so they can call you and you can ask for remittances.
Seriously. That's why it makes sense to sell a U$75 phone for U$25 to someone who had to save for weeks to pay that price.
So yeah. A nation doesn't even have to be emerging for Cellphones to take off. It could be a textbook case of "How to, not develop".
PS: Another sign of underdevelopment is when you must import almost your entire technical staff.
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This is complete non sequitur. How does it follow from what you have said? It helps people... Besides, people WILL HAVE to make calls some times. Consider two situations:
1. Maurice does not have a cell phone. He is in a desperate situation that will certainly benefit from calling someone. He does not call
2. Maurice has a cell phone. He is in the same situation. He calls.
3. ???
4. Profit.
Try also to think out of "phone industry of Haiti" you work for as an
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Lack of infrastructure (Score:3, Interesting)
A small village can share a handset, which both facilitates trade and also obtains the best prices for their vegetables in the markets in the surrounding town.
Also, greater population density in many 3rd world countries allows for more phones per base station (ie. greater economies of scale), and therefore cheaper plans. You'd be surprised at how hard telcos in India and China compete for customers, something telcos in the US have managed to avoid for many years.
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About ten years ago I was shown a factory here in Melbourne where analog cellular phones were being built into bulky units for sale in Chile. The idea is that it is cheaper to put a cellular phone in every house and a base station every 10km or so, than to trench all the way to every house.
So that's where my phone went... (Score:3, Funny)
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Cellular Boom ? You are dead on target. (Score:4, Interesting)
Somebody should do a detailed study of the negetive effects of using a cellphone.
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Mobile phones get people out of poverty (Score:4, Interesting)
Its a genuinely good thing that this is taking off in the developing world to help people create small businesses and to reduce barriers.
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The best thing is that the cell phone can double as a (simple) computer. Address books, games, calculators; essentially all the technological benefits of living in a first world economy despite the poor economy. My guess is that the trend will only speed up, and at the far end third world countries will be getting nano-assemblers the same time (or befor
Kurzweil was right again (Score:3, Interesting)
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The great thing about wireless (Score:4, Interesting)
With wired service, you have to invest up-front, burying cable throughout a population center before you can acquire your first customer. With wireless, you put up one tower, set it for maximum range, and open shop.
A single WiMax tower can reach 40 miles in radius. After Katrina, Intel donated $5M in hardware, and was basically able to cover the Gulf Coast. Bell South says they'll needs between $700M and $900M, and they're still not done with repairs. That cost might be fair, but it shows the advantages in bringing in wireless cheaply. Here's an Intel link:
http://www.intel.com/technology/magazine/communic
I think we should be using cheap wireless technology for IP based emergency communications, enabling people to help each other so they wont have to wait for FEMA to arrive. Check out what hams do for free:
http://eng.usna.navy.mil/~bruninga/aprs.html [navy.mil]
A system built on the Internet model might enable neighbors to help each other, which is basically required after a mass disaster, since any emergency response team will be overwhelmed. Do you know how you'd find your neighbors after a disaster? How would they find you?
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By rights GSM phones should be able to work as point to point communicators over short ranges. In a disaster this would help, both when the cell goes down, and when the network is overloaded.
Unfortunately there is no way for the network ope
emerging (Score:2)
developing nations are saturated with some having more than 100% penetration
after everybody has mobile phones, let see where they will see growth. probably aliens?
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The reason landlines are cheap in industrialised countries is because the telcos have had a hundred years to amortise the cost of laying down copper lines, whereas countries like Nigeria have a very underdeveloped network of phon
Related Side Point (Score:2)
Two possibilities come to mind;
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A phone might deliver a couple of watts of microwave radiation, but go up the spectrum to higher energy and we bathe ourselves in kilowatts of infrared all the time. If microwaves caused cancer what should radiated heat do to you?
We know that the worst you can get from IR is dry and possibly dead skin. No mutat
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and its difficult to study because
1: most people won't itemise thier cell use for a researcher (even if they could) and the cell companies are hardly going to hand the info over.
2: controlling for other factors would be a bitch given that cellphone usage tends to go with social status.
With stats you can prove to a certain degree of confidence that its less than a certain level
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2.5 billion phones for 5 billion people? (Score:2)
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[*] Quick estimate: {1 in 4 in USA+Europe+Aus+NZ with cell phone & 1 in 10 in India+China with cell phone} = 450 milli
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Even in the US the coverage is more than 50%, and in many European countries it's close to 100%. There are actually at least a couple of countries with more than one cellphone subscription per person (I think Finland and either Taiwan or South Korea, but I may be mistaken).
Please don't call it viral! (Score:2)
Moo (Score:2, Troll)
Wow, they hit two billion even before they hit one billion. Now that's fast.
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And, the other meaning is that they got better and restarted fresh the second time to do it faster the secodn time, as in "he ran one mile on thirty minutes, and then two miles in twenty minutes", which is taken to mean that he has gotten considerably better.
Do You Like Irony (Score:2)
Like a religion, not like a virus. (Score:2)
Wrong. Despite propaganda about lifestyle choices, and despite the perceived indispensibility of cell phones, there is a voluntary component to cell phone use that simply does not reflect the reality of disease organism propagation. Sloppy metaphors result from sloppy thinking, and you don't want to get any of that on you.
Cellular technology has spread like a religion.
Dibs on the next "AI takes over the world" movie (Score:2)
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