Bird Flu Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered 252
creepygeek writes to mention a New Scientist article detailing a new process for creating Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against the bird flu. From the article: "Making Tamiflu is slow, partly because shikimic is hard to get, but also because one step in the process involves a highly explosive chemical called an azide. As a result, Tamiflu can be made only in small batches of a few tens of litres at a time. But Elias Corey of Harvard University - who won a Nobel prize in 1990 for chemical synthesis - and colleagues have devised a new way to make the drug from two cheap, plentiful petrochemicals, acrylate and butadiene."
Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
From TFA: It's too bad that our 'biggest hope' is not up to the task, as the following articles assert:
It might be better to just stock up on old-fashioned Jewish penicillin [ivillage.co.uk].
Re:Good News....right? (Score:4, Funny)
Not a good plan. If Bird Flu strikes, chicken will be rarer than shikimic acid.
Re:Good News....right? (Score:4, Interesting)
Take two Vioxx, and call me from Iraq in the morning.
Re:Good News....right? (Score:4, Insightful)
Tamiflu, an antiviral drug currently thought to be our best defense against
AFAIK Tamiflu doesn't Defend you from the virus, it just makes easier for the body to Fight it once you're already infected. you can still die, and if you've been illusional enough to waste your Tamiflu before you got ill the chances will be even better (since there won't be any on the market when/if it will/should ever hit in).
There's still no birdflu here that could move from one mammal to another via air. There are lots of other viruses around that deal much greater damage at the time being, perhaps we should pay attention at them aswell ?
ps. even if you buy a ton of tamifly, the animals that you need around for the farming industry to work, won't be protected, and if it's half as bad as it supposedly could be, you'll just die into hunger. hopefully wild animals have better protection against it than the worthless humans.
Re:Good News....right? (Score:2)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
Drug resistances happen because virii and bacteria mutate over time. This is a big reason why many traditional antibiotics are becoming less useful against certain bacteria, and a possible cause for some of the "super bugs." And if your idea for fighting bird flu is with chicken soup, we truly are screwed.
Re:Good News....right? (Score:2)
I know, I know, don't tell me.....
Re:Good News....right? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:2, Funny)
That smacks of a vaguely Matrix 'human as the incubator' approach to a new 'mass produced' production technique of generating the necessary antibodies quickly, no?
Re:Good News....right? (Score:2)
If you eat cooked poultry there is absolutely zero chance of contracting bird flu.
Re:Good News....right? (Score:5, Insightful)
The difference from a mutation can be enormous. For example, the current virus has about a 50% mortality rate. It is very like when that when it mutates, this mortality rate will go down. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 had only a 2.5-5% mortality rate and that was without Tamiflu. That doesn't mean this one will mutate into only having a 2.5-5% rate. It will likely have a higher rate, and frankly, I think a lot of the predictions of how many will die from an H5N1 mutant pandemic are lowball figures because they do tend to assume a pretty low mortality compared to what it's currently at.
But you're basically comparing apples and oranges at this point. A pandemic flu will not be the current strain because the current strain simply isn't contagious enough.
Mortality rates (Score:5, Insightful)
I have problems with these mortality figures. It's very easy to determine who died from bird flu - you have a body, death certificate, medical records, etc. It is NOT easy to work out who has had the bird flu and has survived in the general populace - not all sick people will have seen a doctor and some may not even have developed symptoms. Without doing a massive study looking for bird-flu antibodies, the mortality figures are almost certainly overblown, maybe by orders of magnitude. This applies whether we are talking about the impact on birds or on humans.
Cheers,
Toby Haynes
Re:Mortality rates (Score:2)
I disagree. There are exactly 206 confirmed cases of bird flu. Of those 206, 113 have died, a 55% mortality rate.
Are you saying there are a lot of people who might have gotten it and are fine? I seriously doubt it. Not a lot of people got Spanish flu and didn't have pretty severe symptoms. Anyone who gets H5N1 is going to end up in a hospital or dead if they don't.
Look, you can only use statistics for the cases you know about. So yeah, some people may have gotte
Don't worry, the gov't is prepared (Score:3, Funny)
Better solution - universal vaccine (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Good News....right? (Score:3, Informative)
This is because the purpose of all this "bird flu" fear-mongering, and particularly in relation to Tamiflu®, has nothing to do with protecting the public. It appears to be really just another example of government corruption -- an excuse to funnel large quantities of taxpayer dollars into the pockets of chronies like Donald Rumsfeld and crew [cnn.com]. Turns out all these huge orders placed by the federal government for an ineffective treatment are m
Is it almost over? (Score:3, Funny)
Good news... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Good news... (Score:5, Interesting)
Every so often, a mutant flu strain arises that kills millions of people. Most famously in 1919, when more people died from flu than were killed in the entire four years of unprecedentedly bloody warfare just past. IIRC there were two more major flu pandemics in the twentieth century, although neither were as devastating.
Sooner or later there WILL be another flu with the ability to kill millions. The only way we have of preventing another 1919 is to spot the threat before it gets going and prepare a vaccine. Hence the worry over H5N1. It's entirely possible that it will all blow over. It's also possible that it will mutate to a form that can spread from one human to another, and become pandemic. If it doesn't, well, great. If it does, we'll be glad we prepared.
For myself, I'm far more afraid of a mutant strain of bird flu killing me than I am of terrorists killing me. That said, I'm more afraid of being hit by a car than I am of either of them, but that doesn't stop me crossing the road...
Exactly (Score:2)
Re:Exactly (Score:2)
was a Bird Flu, thou the 1918 variety had a lower mortality rate...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1 [wikipedia.org]
Ex-MislTech
Re:Exactly (Score:2)
Re:Good news... (Score:3, Interesting)
Experts like Robert G. Webster are worried about H5N1, so it makes sense to take some precautions.
The Great Influenza by John Barry will scare your socks off, and it is all historical fact.
A good source of information about a possible pandemic is fluwikie.com [fluwikie.com]
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Dude, that is a great line.
Re:Good news... (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe it's flu, maybe it's something else. If we spent so mu
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Re:Good news... (Score:5, Insightful)
-Killer bees (there was a movie on this one too)
-SARS
-AIDs (several movies)
-Terrorism
-Anthrax (related to the above)
-Small Pox coming back
-Etc.
While they're all threats, they aren't just going to all of a sudden just break out all over the place. The media loves to feed off our fears--as it sells almost as well as sex. When it explodes, THEN freak out about it, but until then enjoy life.
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Just like the people who suggest you look both ways before crossing the street...
It's a waste of time, it can hurt your neck, and make your iPod earphones fall out.
There's nothing we can do in either case, plus we have either God or Government (or both!) on our side so we can just relax and enjoy life!!!
And for when (or rather IF) it hits, I have a great freak out plan:
I'll just shoot all my neighbors and take their food and water!
Who's with me?
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
However, if something like this does strike, those who haven't thought about dealing with it are gonna be in for a shock.
I lived in a warzone (briefly- 5 months), where we would only get electricity and running water for a few hours a day. It requires a major lifestyle change. When you have to use the same bucket of water to wash your dishes, then clothes and then to flush the can, it requires some planning.
If
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Seriously, with my camping gear and 200 gal boiler in the basement and some powdered milk I'll be okay for a few weeks. I'll even be able to read with my diesel lamps!
Educate yourself (Score:3, Informative)
o The "Asiatic Flu", 1889-1890. Was first reported in May of 1889 in Bukhara, Russia. By October, it had reached Tomsk and the Caucasus. It rapidly spread west and hit North America in December 1889, South America in February-April 1890, India in February-March 1890, and Australia in March-April 1890. It was purportedly caused by the H2N8 type of flu virus and had a very high attack and mortality rate.
Re:Educate yourself (Score:2)
Re:Educate yourself (Score:3, Interesting)
I hear that the British government are setting up contingency plans to dispose of around 300,000 bodies, as a worst-case scenario: that's about one twentieth of the population. Doesn't seem so much on the face of it, does it? Surely we can cope without 5%.
But for everyone killed, how many spend weeks off work on a sickbed? How
Re:Educate yourself (Score:3, Informative)
The UK has 60 million inhabitants, not 6 million... So it's 0.5%, not 5%.
Re:Educate yourself (Score:2)
See, here's why I probably shouldn't stick away a couple of pints at lunchtime and then try to do mental arithmetic. Misplaced decimal point, editing out 54 million people from the UK. Oops.
That said, some among the Scots, Welsh and Not Quite Irish would probably appreciate the removal of 54 million people from the UK :-)
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
http://www.whitehouse.gov/onap/facts.html [whitehouse.gov]
http://www.accessexcellence.org/HHQ/HRC/HF/aids/in dex.html [accessexcellence.org]
http://asmallvictory.net/archives/005326.html [asmallvictory.net]
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
It's equally as tragic to ignore what is a very plausable threat to 10-20% of humanity.
So your saying it doesn't "suddenly just break out all over the place" every year during "flu season"? Surely that must have been a typo because you fix it up by contradicting yourself...
"When it explodes[emphasis mine], THEN freak out about it,
What a good idea, let's
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Mod parent down (Score:2)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=234341498
Cytokine Storm == Deadly (Score:2, Informative)
and if you don't feel like reading the whole article:
Re:Cytokine Storm == Deadly (Score:3, Funny)
A collective sigh of relief is heard emanating from the readers of slashdot...
Re:Good news... (Score:2)
Perhaps you're unfamiliar with history. Credible evidence? How about 3 flu pandemics in the 20th century? The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. The 1957 Asian flu pandemic (1-4 million dead). The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic (as many as 750,000 dead).
A flu pandemic WILL co
So patent it quickly (Score:2)
Re:So patent it quickly (Score:2)
From TFA:
Re:So patent it quickly (Score:3, Interesting)
Worse than greed (Score:2)
RTFWA (Score:4, Informative)
Thanks, but... (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Thanks, but... (Score:2)
What? You haven't heard about Wolfgang Puck's NEW Self-Heating Roast Chicken w/Tamiflu Gravy? [martianrover.com]
It's literally flying off the shelves!
Re:Thanks, but... (Score:2)
Great. Fossil fuels. Tamiflu, now topping $3/gallon.
Biggest chance to save people? (Score:3, Insightful)
This is nice work, but... (Score:5, Interesting)
We just need Yogi Bear. (Score:3, Funny)
Hey Boo-Boo, let's go grab the shik-a-mic basket, the mi-grr-a-tor-ee birds are coming with the flooo!
Real threat? Real solution? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Real threat? Real solution? (Score:3, Interesting)
Nonsense (Score:2)
The threat is not from this form of bird flu. The threat is from a form that can be transferred from human to human. If that happens, predictions are that it could kill upwards of 70 million people. For informed opinions, as opposed to random
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=234341498 8 689203314 [google.com]
Re:Nonsense (Score:2)
Somehow I'm not really worried. This disease doesn't even have the potential to slow down human population growth.
Re:Nonsense (Score:2)
Those 70 million won't be spread equally among the 6 billion, but be concentrated in cities. If it was spread equally, 1 in 85 people would die. That's about half as likely as you getting in a car accident, which is one of the most (or the most?) common dangers for people, at least in the U.S. If you yourself don't get the human-to-human bird flu, you would likely know several friends or rel
Re:Real threat? Real solution? (Score:2)
This is similar to the flu shot people get every year. They take a guess as to what form the flu will take and then produce a vaccine for it. Of course, the flu that actually spreads around may be completely different, thus negating any benefit of getting the shot. Consequently, I don't bother with the flu shot.
Re:Real threat? Real solution? (Score:2)
He wouldn't be getting any money if people didn't want to buy what he was selling, now would he?
Petrochemicals? (Score:2, Funny)
How long before we see a story about making bioTamiflu out of used vegetable oil from McDonald's?
Re: (Score:2)
Bird flu? (Score:2)
Bah to your end of the world disease, I was stuff that blows up.
Re:Bird flu? (Score:2)
Re:Bird flu? (Score:4, Funny)
For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:4, Interesting)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=234341498
The truth is that it is not hype; just because we know about it well ahead of the time when it will actually affect us doesn't mean that it will not be a threat. The most interesting part of that discussion is the possibility that people with AIDS will be the least likely to be harmed by bird flu, since it is the overactive immune system--in response to the foreign disease--that ultimately kills you.
Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:2)
Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:2)
Ahh, can't afford the 99 cents to actually watch the video? Or were you just distracted by something shiny?
Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:2)
Hang on a sec... the head of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention is "vaguely relevant to the subject"... So are general's vaguely relevant to wars that participate in?
Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:2)
http://www.google.com/search?q=rumsfeld+tamiflu [google.com]
Brought to you by the WMD inventor, Rumsfeld, himself.
Why do people keep believing lies?
What's next? Domino theory?
Re:For anyone wanting expert info on the threat (Score:2)
Oh, wonderful! (Score:2)
(yes, that was sarcastic...)
Re:Oh, wonderful! (Score:2)
The joke's on you.
With the truck maintainers, dispatchers, drivers, train loaders, controllers and engineers, grocery chain administrators, stockers, floorpeople and salespeople staying home either sick, hungry, scared or dying there won't be any need for gas!
That's the best part of it, see, the gorillas will just freeze in the winter!
petrochemical eh? (Score:2)
Petrochemical eh? as in petro based? Does this mean gas price is going up more once we start making these drugs?
Re:petrochemical eh? (Score:2)
Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective (Score:2, Interesting)
(CTV NEWS) http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNew s/20051221/tamiflu_drug_051221/20051221 [www.ctv.ca]
Many top experts are advising to prepare for the worst. The US gov. is urging people to store food that could last for three months. In the UK mass graves are being planed openly. Forget Tamiflu:
(BBC) http://news.bbc.co.uk/ [bbc.co.uk]
Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective (Score:2)
Cite? All the real experts I have read want to throttle the world media for creating mass hysteria.
Re:Tamiflu Already Shown to be Ineffective (Score:2)
And if you bother to read the articles you've linked, you'll find that in the case of the UK, how to handle burials is being discussed in addition to Tamiflu and vaccines as a precautionary measure - you really don't want to risk a situation where a large number of people die and you can't deal with the bodies a
Drug Mass Production Technique Discovered? (Score:2)
The way I read those articles is (Score:3, Interesting)
2) To rely on only one method is insane. This is just common sense.
3) The assumption is that over time the disease may be come resistant to tamuflu and so other measures are needed (see pt. #2).
4) Tamuflu failed when improper dosages were given.
So to throw out tamuflu would be silly. It would be a good thing to have around, thought the only way to really find out is to have a major outbreak. Only then will we *really* know if it would work.
No time for FUD, I must get on with life.
reading between lines (Score:2, Funny)
hmmm I see... They plan to eliminate bird flu by making every sick bird explode. clever!
some chemistry clarification (Score:4, Informative)
Corey's synthesis is pretty nifty. It just needs FDA approval and Roche has to adopt it. Given that Roche has had an azide-free route available since 2000, I'm thinking the process change is more than trivial. The Chemical and Engineering News article is much more informative, if you have access to that journal, and you like chemical structures.
Great (Score:2)
TWW
Re:Great (Score:2)
The mechanism for drug resistance in viruses is rather
chemistry stuff (Score:2)
In contrast, butadiene is a major industrial chemical used in making synthetic rubber, for which we have well-understood handling and manufactur
Some people may have genetic anomaly. . . (Score:2)
Kida explained that people infected with H5N1 have a carbohydrate receptor on cells lining their throats. The receptor -- called alpha 2,3 -- is predominantly found in birds. Avian influenza viruses like to bind to this class of receptors to replicate and cause disease.
. . . . .
Human influenza viruses, however, prefer to bind to another receptor called alpha 2,6, which is dominant in humans.
Kida is now trying to look for H5N1
Bird flu or no bird flu (Score:2)
Eventually there IS going to be another flu pandemic, the way the virus mutates and our global society assure us of it, the real question is is it going to kill millions of people or just give everyone a lousy week of work.
It's always what you don't anticipate... (Score:3, Interesting)
If I try on my tinfoil hat for a moment, it seems that the only winner in a Tamiflu stockpiling situation will be the manufacturer. We can be almost certain that the "next big pandemic" will blind side us. That is, after all, the nature of pandemics. It'll be a mutated form of *something*, probably something quite benign.
Non-News (Score:2)
First, the H5N1 virus we know today is not a serious threat to humans. In order to progress to Pandemic 5, it must mutate so that it is conta
Re:Non-News (Score:2)
Re:Bird Flu, The Biggest Pandemic That Never Was! (Score:2)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=234341498
Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. (Score:3)
The threat isn't from the current form of bird flu. People only get that form if they live around chickens--swimming in chicken shit. The threat is if it mutates into a form that can be tranferred between humans. Care to inform yourself, so you don't sound so wrong? Watch this:
http://vide [google.com]
Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. (Score:2)
Also I think you'll find that "Tamiflu" is the name of a drug, not the name of a company.
Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. (Score:2)
Re:Why concentrate on bird flu.. (Score:2)
Primarily contacted by voluntary behavior that almost everyone in the entire world has been told to avoid.
malaria,
Previously controlled by DDT, before it was removed from the market by (later disproven) fear.
hunger, lack of fresh water and overall stupidity of the general population
Assuming you meant "ignorance" instead of "stupidity", all three of those are political issues. Feel free to suggest solutions that will satisfy all affected groups.
Re:That is it! (Score:2)
Re:ABS (Score:2)
So you'd rather die of a pandemic bird flu? Look I understand the sentiment here, and for most things less important than "stop something that will kill me" I agree with it, but in this case I would choose "relatively safe injection of petrochemical compounds" over "horrible flu-induced death".
Re:ABS (Score:2)