Xbox 360 Wins Through 2009? 306
simoniker writes "As part of a recent MI6 Conference presentation, IDG's Jason Anderson made predictions on the North American installed base of the next-gen consoles through 2008. He predicts that the Xbox 360 will continue to hold a lead into 2009, with the PS3 just behind and the Wii trailing significantly. In particular: 'In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the Xbox 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii.' Is the Wii really going to trail by so much, or do the analysts not 'get it'?"
where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Funny)
The same way all good—and bad—predictions are made: They made them up. ;-)
Predictions (Score:5, Funny)
You couldn't be more wrong. Among Nostradamus' many cryptic and undated predictions, there were
thinly disguised sales numbers for video game consoles, a decade into the new millenium.
Check the quatrains [propheties.it], my friend. It is ALL There
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:2)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:5, Funny)
360 sales in the month of May * 3 = uh, a lot
PS3 sales in the month of May * 3 = 0
Wii sales in the month of May * 3 = 0
Dang - the 360 will totally rule the next gen market! I can be an analyst too!
Remember, kids, you can't spell analyst without anal.
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:where are these numbers coming from? (Score:3, Insightful)
Wii is counting on an audience that doesn't play video games.
If by "video games" you mean FPS, then yeah. They're not counting o an audience that doesn't play video games, they're counting on an audience that doesn't play FPS because the controls are way too complicated for them. Grandma may be a decent shot with her .45, but not be able to play Quake worth a damn. The Wii controller is an equalizer in that respect, and Nintendo is betting it'll bring more people to games that they can't play with cur
Makes sense... (Score:3, Insightful)
360 has a head start and will enjoy price drop advantages over the PS3, which means the PS3 has to close the gap before it can repeat the PS2's sales dominance. If the Wii performs the same as the GC, it's going to be a year behind the 360. At the end of this cycle of consoles the numbers could be identical, it's just that the 360 is here NOW.
Re:Makes sense... (Score:3, Informative)
If the PS3, 360, and Wii sold exactly the same numbers as the PS2, XBOX, and GC, the 360 would dominate for a while just because it was on the market first and will benefit from early price drops that keep it competitive. I have no doubt that in the end the PS3 will outsell the 360 and the Wii will at least come close to matching it, but it's going to take a couple of years for them to reach the price points and deve
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:2)
Re:Makes sense... [Or Not] (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Makes sense... (Score:2)
The Nintendo DS came out AFTER the PSP and it has a gigantic lead over the PSP.
How did this amazing thing happen?
very simply. Nintendo priced it to sell and has lots of games that are inexpensive and are fun.
the Wii looks like it will release at the $199.00 price point with game from 50%-25% cheaper than all other platforms = it will absolutely kill the other platforms in game sales and units sold.
I dont car if the gotta have game of the century is on the PS3 or XBOX360. someone
does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Years of trends coupled with current market research. The good analysts can be pretty accurate; they've got 20+ years of consumer preferences to reference.
who would have predicted, for instance, the overwhelming popularity of the nintendo DS over the PSP?
Me
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compat
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
You could try to do market research, but that's difficult to do, considering neither Sony nor Nintendo have started marketing the systems yet.
Nintendo has an established handheld line, Sony just jumped in. Not to mention Sony included features most people didn't care about, like that goofy UMD movie format that costs more than a DVD and is only compatible with the PSP.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numbers for next year: he predicts the gap to increase, but not significantly. If the DS Lite follows the Japan behavior, that gap will grow incredibly.
He kindof lost me when he started talking about game quality, though - game quality rankings aren't absolute: they're relative to the console that they're on - which means that the more games a system has, the lower the average ranking is going to be. This isn't just because all of the games are crap - it's because the ranking scale got stretched due to the raised bar.
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
If you disagree with those numbers, hey, that's another reason why he's wrong.
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:4, Interesting)
I think the PS3 will have a degree of success, but I think that it will be second fiddle to the 360, just like the article says, but in the global market I don't know if the Wii will be far third. Globally the GameCube is in 2nd right now to the PS2, why would this be any different now? I think there even is a chance in hell of the Wii killing both competitors in Japan.
I think the main thing the Wii has going against it is Nintendo's false association with kiddie games (like someone is going to let their kids play RE4).
Not an expert here, but it is fun to think about.
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:4, Insightful)
Where did you get this idea. They said they wanted to make it accesable for all, a statement they make every release. They have yet to change their tactic of garnering faith with the younger demographic.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of target audience)? There's just no information about it whatsoever.
For the PS3, you do price point analysis. The product doesn't have to be the same. You analyze consumer response in comparison to price point increases that are on par with Sony's annouced prcing. This will give you a response trend.
For the Wii, that target audience has been disected like a frog. Kid friendly with a dash of innovation. You may think it is completely irrelevant - but the biggest trends to compare this to is candy. WTF?!!! Yep, candy. Candy started taking an "interactive" and "electronic" aspect about a decade ago. It used to be all Bazooka Joes and Pixie Stix, now its candy that beeps and comes in cool packaging that moves or does something utilizing the candy. Yeah, I know we had whistle pops way back in the day - but we also had Space Wars too. You can get fairly accurate trends out of consumer response to drastic new ideas applied to common ubiquitous entities - especially as candy is pretty attractive to the target group Nintendo is going after.
You have to remeber this is trend analysis, its not an exact science. You take a whole bunch of statistics with related aspects, qualify them - and then analyze the results in relation to what you're trying to predict. You can do this without having existing statistics on exact subject matter.
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
Uhh, no - he's spot on. Even if the PSP and DS have similar install bases, I'd like to see your references - Nintendo has a long history of handheld dominance. That's established. One neck and neck race between two devices while ignoring the GB Advance SP is a flawed analysis. Add those numbers and you see that Nintendo is still owning handheld. The SP is still selling, making it a competator. I guess you meant PSP vs. DS, not true market.
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Yes, they have. Take a look at the games they have for the DS in Japan. The demographic buying a DS is completely different than those that bought a GBA.
They're not targeting kids. They're targeting everyone else. Girls, adults, grandparents, etc. That's what they are currently doing in Japan with the DS. Yo
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Order of events time. They released this game, it was a huge hit - single handedly grabbing a huge chunk of adult gameers, then Nintendo goes "Hey, we can get all these guys too." This was not an original strategy, this was a tactical change based on critical events.
You think they're going to stop with Wii?
Considering the Japanese are a commuter culture, ma
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
What ? That doesn't make any sense: I disagree with the logic in the article. I have no interest as to whether or not the numbers are correct.
If the numbers are wrong, then ignore my argument (and his too). I don't care. If someone says "t
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Then you'd be wrong, though, as the DS and the PSP have an equivalent install base in the US, for instance. Where the DS is decimating the PSP is in Japan - where the DS effectively tapped a new demographic.
You can see that he's kindof dismissing that possibility in the DS/PSP numb
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
In terms of North American install base, perhaps.
I'm not so sure that's all that meaningful a metric of success, though. Doesn't the massive dominance of the DS in Japan count for something? What about the number of game titles purchased per system?
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
I agree. In fact, that was my original point before people started to get bogged down in where my numbers came from (which is hilarious, considering they came from the article).
I think the reason the DS is doing so well in Japan is because they started getting another demographic - girls, adults, etc. - with Ni
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
The problem here though is that both Sony and Nintendo are going outside those consumer trends - the most equivalent console to the PS3 in terms of cost is the Neo Geo, and there's not much trend information there to extract. In addition, Nintendo's targeting a demographic which is completely outside previous generations, much like they did with the DS.
I have to agree with the grandparent: how can you make predictions about systems as revolutionary as the PS3 (in terms of price) and the Wii (in terms of tar
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
As has been mentioned, if you adjust for inflation, (or even if you don't) it's not more expensive than the neo-geo was.
Exactly. And the Neo-Geo's price wasn't mainstream, because the console itself wasn't mainstream - at least, in the end, it wasn't. Sony's hoping to sell a mainstream product at a premium price, and that hasn't been done before.
Are you kidding? They've both started. Maybe not directly to consumers
That's what I meant. By "market research" I me
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
I? Atleast wished for, but Nintendo did a bad job in Europe compared to Sony.
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
Re:does he think he is nostradamus or something? (Score:2)
What about people who bought a Tiger game.com? They saw a handheld with a touch screen fail once before, and that might lead them to predict that the DS was a gimmick and that PSP would dominate.
Myself, I once had an Etch-A-Sketch Animator 2000 console, and playing the "Putt Nuts" miniature golf cartridge with the stylus and touchpad convinced me that the DS was going to be a blockbuster.
Attention Instead of Science (Score:5, Insightful)
Problem is, we'll never be able to say, "Hypothetically, if all three had came out at the same time, PS3 would have carried strong through 2009." Why can't we say that? Because we observe one experiment (what really happens) and we have no control over the variables and the control factors in the experiment. You can't apply the scientific process to much of economics so why is it considered a science? Things like the Phillips Curve [wikipedia.org] hold true for 30 years and then suddenly fall flat on their face so now it's not so much a curve as a movable line that can be placed anywhere automagically.
It's almost painfully obvious that there's very little pertinent data to observe to make this assumption about the XBox, so why make any predictions at all?! Oh, that's right, attention & web traffic.
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2)
Re:Attention Instead of Science (Score:2, Informative)
Revision of a model in the face of new data is how all sciences progress. Also, you mistate the new theory behind the Phillips Curve. In the short run, the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment still holds. In the long run, the Phillips Curve is a vertical line, but it can't be plotted anywher
IMO... (Score:2, Insightful)
Wii FTW!!!
Re:IMO... (Score:3, Interesting)
Case in point - me. Last weekend, after contemplating a Xbox 360 purchase for months, I decided instead to just buy an Xbox 360 controller and hook it up to the Mac Mini already sitting next to my HDTV (gaming on a Mac - I know, blasphemy). Add Halo for Mac and some emulators, and I've got a pretty nic
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
You are not, by any stretch of the inagination, the intended audience of next gen. consoles.
Re:IMO... (Score:2)
Except for the Wii, which he says he's planning on buying, and that's exactly the reason that Nintendo looks like the next-gen winner.
When you said that you were engaging in the same type of thinking that made Sony decide that a $600 price point wasn't a bad idea.
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
I've seen this argument used a lot to defend Sony, but it's very frequently used against people (like me) who say the PS3 is too expensive, but they will probably buy a Wii. If someone is going to buy a next-gen console, then whether Sony considers them the "intended audience" or not, they are the next-gen audience. The point is that Nintendo has been trying very hard lately to expand their audience to include more than just devoted hard-core gamers, and so far it shows signs of working (I recently bought a DS Lite after not owning a console since the SNES, and I have multiple friends in the same boat -- it's almost the perfect "casual gamer" system [my wife, who almost never plays video games, is now most of the way through New Super Mario Bros.])
So, when all these people who are not in the traditional "next-gen" market say that they will be buying a next-gen system, and that it will not be the PS3, how can you dismiss it with "Well, you aren't the target audience?" Do console sales only count if they're buyers that Sony is interested in?
Re:IMO... (Score:3, Insightful)
How is he not a gamer? He plays games, he is actually creative in his gaming (how does one go about hooking a 360 controller to a Mac Mini?), that seems the definition. I didn't think that the unthinking reflex to spend money on the VERY dubious bleeding edge was contained in the definition of gamer. I guess I'm not a gamer either since I still don't own an XBox or PS2, and refuse to buy a 360, ignoring the fact I have every retro console, and use them daily. Own
Re:IMO... (Score:2)
USB port (Mac Minis have those) and $5 shareware driver. That's not really that creative.
The point is that the article is about people buying the next generation of game consoles. If he's happy with Mario Brothers, then he's not buying the next generation of game consoles, and therefore his post is off-topic. He's not in the target demographic, so to speak. It's not relevant to the article we're all discussing here.
Re:IMO... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:IMO... (Score:2)
And that makes your bitching about his comment off-off-topic. And the comment you're currently reading, off-off-off-topic.
Besides which, if the topic of discussion is "how people will be gaming from now through 2009", which it is, there's no legitimate reason to limit the
Re:IMO... (Score:2)
And this is news? (Score:2)
Also he is dead wrong since he belives the Wii will sell the least amount.
Re:And this is news? (Score:2)
With that over with, out here in the real world I live in, I've heard exactly one person say anything about the Nintendo Revolution. I've heard a dozen people talking about buying a PS3 or a Xbox 360. It's possible that Nintendo will do better than the article predicts, but personally I don't think it's likely... Nintendo just doesn't hav
Re:And this is news? (Score:2, Interesting)
But that's not the real point. The point is that you can't go only on your own circle of friends. That's a somewhat skewed population. Why do you think a lot of new products and services are tested in the midwest (Pepsi Clear comes to mind)? The midwest, namely the Ohio and India
Re:And this is news? (Score:2)
Re:And this is news? (Score:2)
We must live in different real worlds. In the one I live in, I don't know anybody who's bought a 360 yet even though it's been out for six months, all the gamers think it was a horrible mistake for Sony to price the PS3 so high, and I hate walking past Rockefeller Center because people are always stopping in t
interesting guess... (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm the opposite (Score:2)
Reading GamePro's coverage of E3, the thing that struck me was that almost all the games for the 360 and PS3 were boring FPSs with better graphics. The Wii was the only console that had significant variety.
Now, it may be that the magazine was just filling space with whatever had the most impressive screenshots... but if the PS3 lineup really is mostly FPSs, Sony could find themselves in trouble, as most FPS fans seem to be PC gamers like you.
In fact, I kinda wonder
Re:interesting guess... (Score:2)
Right now I'd take a console over a PC purely for the lack of DRM bullshit and huge hassle of fixing things when they go wrong.
Interesting choice... (Score:2, Troll)
And I can't imagine why you think a console will "just work" any more than Steam. I guarantee someday you'll bring home a console game and it will either be defective (won't play at all), or your console will reject it for some other reason. At least with a PC, it's highly likely I'll have a backup for all my savega
Re:Interesting choice... (Score:2)
There was a bug in the beautiful joe 2 demo. It's well documented and they even gave people free games to say sorry for it.
You're basicly saying "Wow I'm so glad my extending stick is in my control, having one of them normal-always-the-same-sticks is so much more risky".
How can I prevent the game engine screwing up when it worked perfectly fine without the add on (and still works fine) huh? How can I control patchs and such?
I don't know what world you're living in, but in my
Re:interesting guess... (Score:2)
my 2.2cents
From the mysterious future! (Score:3, Insightful)
seriously. I don't think analysts' predictions are news; especially when they're predicting the sales trend of products that havne't been released, let alone really shown off, yet. And with something as dynamic as a videogame console. I mean, the primary deciding factor (I thought) in the sales of a system are the games that are released. who's to say that the PS3 won't have a dozen games as spectacular and fun as Shadow of the Colossus? What's to say that the Wii isn't going to blow M$ and Sony out of the water?
I really don't get why this was posted.
as an asside; I'm really looking forward to the Wii. the 360 blew all my expectations out of the water (I really expected it to be slightly more entertaining than fecal matter smeared into a faux mustache on an overly inflated blowup doll). I had high hopes for the PS3, but now, I really don't know and perhaps sony has its head so far up its ass, that I wouldn't be surprised if they botch the whole system worse than atari did with the jaguar. worse than sega did with the saturn.
wii (Score:5, Insightful)
if the more affordable Wii ends up being the second sstem of every PS3 or 360 owner, it's possible that it could make a run at the top spot in terms of installed base
Not that every 360 or PS3 owner will also purchase a Wii, but many probably will. Not to mention the die-hard nintendo fanbase that will buy only the Wii. Also if nintendo's plan for how they intend to market the Wii works out then many non-gamers will be converted by the Wii which adds many additional sales.
But honestly, I don't really care. I'm buying a Wii day one because it's going to kick ass. I probably won't ever buy a 360, but I may buy a PS3 in a few years when the price becomes reasonable.
Re:wii (Score:2)
I will when the mod chip comes out so I can have 100+ games on the internal hard drive just like the Xbox does.
that was the only reason I have an Xbox.
Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Informative)
Here's a question: How much shelf space will Wal*Mart devote to Wii games compared to the other two consoles?
Here's another question: How much money will be spent marketing each next-gen platform?
Sorry to say it, I think the analyst has it just about right.
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:5, Insightful)
You'd think they'd be related, or something. :(
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:2)
Hype is a powerful thing, but in the long term, it's not going to save Sony if the PS3 is crap. It helped create a crazy when the PS2 came out, but if they didn't have the games to back it, their suc
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:4, Insightful)
I'm not making a prediction though, I think it's way to early to do that when two of the systems in question aren't even available. I'm just saying that it's a pretty big wild card, all three companies are placing pretty big bets on the future of the industry, and the one that's right stands to get the most users. MS and Sony are both betting on variations on an HD path, and Nintendo is angling to grow by expanding the market to include more people not considered conventional gamers.
Re:Wii Underrated ? (Score:2, Insightful)
Just how much space will major retailers give the Wii? I would imagine that it would somehow be related to the past success of Nintendo products in the marketplace.
Could the Wii's potential in the market be affected by small shelf-space allocation due to the limited success of the GC?
This makes me think I've been looking at this the wrong way. I think the Wii is going to offer innovation above and beyond the competition. In a perfect world, this would translate into
Look at E3 (Score:2)
The answer is in this question: what is E3, and how did the consoles do at E3?
E3 is an expo for the people who make buying decisions for the retailers. That's why it requires an industry connection (though they aren't vetted well) to get in. Retailers have to plan Christmas in the spring, which why we have E3 in May.
So, as a buyer for the big retailers you make your plans based on what you saw at E3. How do you think Nintendo did?
ummm...what is he thinking? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:ummm...what is he thinking? (Score:2)
Games sell a lot when they first come off, then drastically drop off over time.
Consoles sell to the early adopters first, then the sales totals increase over time as the price drops occur and the base of good g
Re:ummm...what is he thinking? (Score:5, Informative)
End of 2000 - 6.4 million
End of 2001 - 24.99 million (+19)
End of 2002 - 49.59 million (+25)
End of 2003 - 69.46 million (+19)
End of 2004 - 81.39 million (+12)
End of 2005 -101.37 million (+20)
As you can see, sales are not all that different through the console's lifecycle. You see drops when few good games come out, and increases during price drops and major game releases. Just look at the weekly japanese sales at media create and crunch some numbers.
Wow (Score:2)
Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:5, Insightful)
The quantity question is shaking up to look the same, at least initially, for the next generation. The majority of next generation previews I've seen are for 360/PS3, with an absolute dearth of high profile previews for Wii.
If the quantity of game selection were the sole criteria, I'd say the analyst is roughly right in his predictions at least for the near term. PS3 will have a huge advantage over the 360 in the number of Japanese developed games, so I expect to eventually overtake it.
The obvious wildcards are how successful the Wii will be in expanding the market and bringing back lapsed gamers. And how long will the PS3 sell for a premium. If Nintendo can translate E3 success into actually getting devlopers to release games on the Wii, their chance for success will rise dramatically.
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:2)
Or, it could be that the average rankings drop the more games you have released. Given that of the console systems, the one with the highest average ranking (Xbox 360) has the fewest games.
Even excluding the "if you have tons of games, you must have tons of crap" effect
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:5, Interesting)
But in a more fundamental sense, the whole shift towards the "casual gamer" is an attempt to find a market that is more interested in quality over quantity. People who couldn't possibly ever find the time to play even a fraction of all those PS2 games, and would rather just buy one occasionally, and be pretty sure that it'll be a worthwhile purchase.
The other thing is that with the pricing being significantly lower than the competition, it has the potential to move into more of an "impulse buy" category. Maybe not in the sense of you're walking through BestBuy looking for a DVD and it catches your eye out of the blue sort of impulse. (Although if they set up some nice in-store kiosks with a really crazy fun game, the novelty of the controller would probably sell a few on the spot). But I'm thinking more along these lines; I'm a teenager really wanting a PS3, and as I stare at the box in the store wondering how I'm ever going to manage to find $600 bucks, I notice the Wii next to it, maybe bundled with an extra controller and a game, for half the price. Sure it's not what I really wanted, but it'll still be fun, I have a much better chance of convincing Mom to pay for it, and I won't leave empty handed.
And there's still the 2nd console strategy. Basically saying that the Wii is different enough that it's not an either or between it and another console. You can buy an Xbox360 and get most of the same stuff that you'd get with a PS3. But even having both of those won't let you play most of the games that you can get for the Wii.
Nintendo doesn't care if you buy another console. They only care if you buy a Wii. If you buy a PS3, Steve Ballmer might throw a chair at you (are chair-throwing jokes still funny? were they ever?), because he knows that a large percentage of purchases for Sony are a loss for MS.
Re:Gamers Prefer Quantity Over Quality (Score:3, Insightful)
Or, to further comment, it could be because the guy did a crappy analysis.
Take a look at his DS/PSP comparison : he states the PSP is like 70%, and the DS is far lower. From gamerankings.com's own data, that seems to be because of a large number of games with very few r
This is wrong (Score:2)
Re:This is wrong (Score:3, Funny)
Update the numbers, guys! The Wii will sell 6,800,001.
hmmm (Score:2, Insightful)
it will be xbox360 vs wii. higher quality graphics, online play vs innovative games and play style. the 360 will be out earlier, but the wii will be released cheaper than the 360 could probably ever become. i'm putting the wii on top with this one. i know i'll be buying one (and not a 360/ps3).
Maybe if numbers are US only, but not worldwide (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course they think this way... (Score:2)
The Wii flies in the face of the industry's conventional wisdom, and if the current buzz translates to sales (not a
Pulling numbers out of his ass (Score:5, Informative)
Based on past performance? Based on marketing of all the companies?
The PS1 was not expected to be sucessfull. Neither was the DS gameboy over the hyped psp as another poster pointed out.
Personally I think the wii is going to surprise everyone and nintendo once again will rerule the console market. It will cost $225 while the PS3 will be anywhere from $600 to $800 and the games will be $70-80, the xbox360 will have about 8 or 9 games by this christmass and cost $350. Also Nintendo is doing innovative things and will attract a broader range of consumers.
If the slashdot poll we had last month was any indication of consumer preference, I think Sony and MS are in trouble. We are more technically minded and more game savy than the average consumer so the preference %'s for the xbox and PS3 should be much higher than the general public.
Last, for those who say the wii is weak on grahics, please check this out? [ign.com] Also take a look at the new Galaxy Mario [ign.com]? The gamecube right now has the best best graphics out of the ps2 and xbox 1. Go ask any real game developer and dont believe the hype out of sony?
Keep in mind .. (Score:2)
I'm betting simular results for the Wii at the beginning. It'll be competitive here in North America, but will eat japan up right from the get go. Globally though, the numbers will look MUCH different.
Why I'll only buy the Wii... (Score:2)
Its gameplay, man. The Wii promises "good enuf" graphics and unique gameplay.
Its the same reason I got the DS over the PSP: The games have better gameplay (even if the graphics are far more limited). Innovative input -> innovative gameplay.
bullshit (Score:2)
Yawn... (Score:2, Insightful)
Whilst a good handful of people I know are very happy with their Xbox360s, and a one or two are even looking forward to getting their hands on a PS3, without exception everyone I've spoken to about the Wii is very excited about it, and has every inte
Roll a d20 (Score:2, Interesting)
360 has a big advantage from being first; they'll have not only a fanbase but a lot of titles available by the time the other two launch, and with that momentum they'll get an even bigger fanbase and more titles. It's a vicious cycle.
the PS3 has the strongest brand recognition, bu
No surprise.. (Score:2, Insightful)
Total B.S. (Score:2)
1. Being indignant about the price of the PS3
2. It's freakin' huge: the box will take up the same space in stores as two or three Xbox 360's or at least 4 Wii's.
3. No Rumble in the controller
4. Realistic Cost if you don't want the crappy PS3, out the door, with one game, let alone an extra controller, with tax,
Right.... this guy isn't listening to the facts. (Score:3, Interesting)
I do admit the 360 has done everything right in their launch and of course they are going to be on top for quite a while. I'd be willing to suggest they win this generation. However how is the PS3 going to get even close to that. They already admited they arn't worried about the following
Sony is pulling a nintendo 64, they are overestimating name recognition and they will fall flat on the face.
The Wii may not get the hard core gamers, but a lot of techno nuts will grab it just for the pure innovation. At the same time NO ONE is getting a 360 for just arcade games, however someone is more likely to buy a 250 dollar Wii (which sounds what they are aiming for) and go and buy some old nintendo games to play with for a couple dollars tops.
Now I'm not saying the Wii will beat the Ps3, but the Ps3 will NEVER be close behind 360 at the rate they are going. The gaming community has embraced the 360 in North America (where we are talking about), the world's gaming community is extremely skeptical of the PS3, and interested in the Wii. Factor in a Zelda launch title, Halo 3, 2nd gen 360 games, and eyes start to turn.
That's not to say in 2007/2008 that the PS3 will not get great games, or the Wii will get tons of great games. No one knows but the facts are against the PS3 rocketting away. The 360 is "simple" to program for (compared to the PS3), the Wii has a unique controller which both helps and hinders it. And looking at fall 2007, those second generation 360 games are coming fast, compared to launch PS3 games they will blow them away.
Microsoft did almost everything right with the 360 overall, the launch was weak and weak BC, but the games are slowly coming in. On the other side, nintendo is doing everything right in creating a new "interactive" gamer level, and Sony is just about doing everything wrong. One or two issues wouldn't be a problem but Sony really has a long way to become top dog again.
And this is coming from a guy who didn't own a Xbox, I own a 360 now though and I couldn't be happier, it's a great system, I'll be buying a Wii, but the Ps3 still isn't worth the 600 bucks. And remember a PS3 will be highly inflated numbers as well because people will buy it just for the blu ray which is cheaper than buying a Blu-ray player solo.
Strategy Schmategy (Score:4, Insightful)
Let's see, what next-gen platform is PS2 (and PSX) compatible?
Sony is betting the farm on a happy convergence of Blu-ray, compelling PS3 titles, and HDTV critical mass.
Microsoft is betting (but not the farm) on getting in first. Microsoft intends to own your digital hub, and they're prepared to lose a whole pile of money getting there. We've seen them behave similarly with Access (which was used to kill Paradox, et al), Video for Windows / Windows Media Player, Internet Explorer, and so on. There's a huge market at stake, and it's worth billions to kill its current owner. The fact that this is technically illegal is a minor annoyance.
Indeed by making the XBox 360 far more technically distinct from a Windows PC than the XBox (which basically was a PC) Microsoft may be trying to avoid potential antitrust action (it could be argued that XBox was an attempt to leverage its desktop monopoly power, whereas XBox 360 is merely an attempt to buy into a new market by using money made with its desktop monopoly). It seems highly unlikely they did it to make developers happy. (Yay, another bizarro platform with a new API to develop for!)
So far, getting in first hasn't worked very well for Atari, Colecovision, Nintendo, and Sega, so good luck to Microsoft there. It's not clear to what extent the PS2's success was driven by it's serving as a (for the time) inexpensive, high quality DVD-player (we've bought and stopped using three or four DVD players since we bought our PS2, and the PS2 still works -- even if it does ask you to override parental controls for almost every DVD; all but one of the other DVD players has eaten it).
In a sense, the success or failure of the Wii is about as relevant to the Sony/Microsoft battle for control of your "digital lifestyle" as the success or failure of the DS (or PSP), which is to say -- not totally irrelevant, but not central. No sane person is going to store the only copy of their family photographs on a PSP. The reason the Wii is so much more exciting (to gamers) than its competitors is that Nintendo is all about games. Wii will never by our digital hub, and we don't care.
Frankly, I wish someone would figure out that a digital hub ought, basically, to be an application-agnostic, really big, reliable mass storage device, and all the other crap should be peripheral.
Surprised? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Eh? (Score:5, Informative)
There are those that pick them up for wonderful titles like RE4 and SSBM but at least in my experience they're not in the majority.
Re:Eh? (Score:5, Insightful)
And that's why the prediction is likely wrong: it looks like he's predicting numbers based on what the "average gamer" will do. Nintendo's not targeting the "average gamer". Neither is Sony, for that matter: $500 is outside of what the average gamer will pay for a console.
The "non-gamer" community is still much larger than the "average gamer" community. If Nintendo manages to convince a good portion of them to buy a Wii, they'll dominate in terms of market share.
Re:Wii WILL trail (Score:4, Interesting)
Tags != Comments (Score:3, Insightful)