PlayStation 3 Not So Much Delayed? 170
Chris Morris, on the CNN Game Over column, points out that even if Merrill Lynch's suggestion that the delayed initial launch of the PS3 is true, that's unlikely to affect the U.S. launch of the console. From the article: "Logic sometimes isn't enough, though. To get additional perspective on the situation, I spoke with several of Sony's partners (who are in regular contact with the company) and competitors (who keep a close eye on the PS3's launch window) about the report. No one was willing to talk on the record for fear of reprisal, but the consensus was nearly universal. The promised spring launch (which was expected in Japan, but not North America) will likely be pushed back, they said. The North American launch, which was always expected to occur later this year (November is the consensus), is not expected to change. Europe may well not see the PS3 until next year." The price tag reported, though, is still probably accurate. C|Net has a breakdown of the PlayStation 3's components.
Those Component Costs are off (Score:5, Informative)
IBM has reported fab costs of the Cell below $50 and much of the cost on the BR drive is due to the unique processing and decoding hardware attatched to the drive, not the drive itself. This hardware is already present in the PS3 in the form on the Cell.
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:1)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:1)
But I would not say they are not buying some from IBM.
I would actually think that they would buy the initial bunch of cell procs from
IBM until they get their line up and running.
Sony Helped Fund IBM Fab (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Sony Helped Fund IBM Fab (Score:3, Insightful)
So if Sony is basically the "manufacturer" of the Cell processor and the manufacturer of the BluRay drive, the cost to them is way off. They don't have to pay someone else's marketing, sales and profit on these products, only the core cost of actually building the parts.
This is like a short term gasoline shortage we had about a decade ago. Almost a
Re:Sony Helped Fund IBM Fab (Score:2)
There are costs, but not all the costs. Marketing and sales costs disappear, for example
Don't you think it cost Sony a good chunk of change to develop the Blu-Ray standard and retool manufacturing to handle it? Don't you figure that if IBM is asking for money to help build a plant, it probably wasn't cheap?
All this stuff is very expensive, but the costs of the
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:1)
Also, $200-300 for just the drive sounds about right, considering that a set-top box with the processing and decoding hardware is going to cost $1000+ retail.
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:3, Informative)
I'd say the $200-$300 for the drive is *way* off.
When it comes down to it, the Blu-Ray drive is pretty much like a DVD drive except for a more expensive laser and presumably more accurate actuators for lens positioning. It'll be more expensive than a DVD player, but not *that much* more expensive.
The expensive parts of a Blue-Ray player are likely to be the video decoding sections, not the drive unit itself.
*seven usable - one is
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
You do realize that those are the only parts in your DVD player that actually cost more than a trivial amount, right?
All the componants cost a trivial amount... (Score:2)
Re:All the componants cost a trivial amount... (Score:2)
We're talking about a fancy pants multiple focus combined blue/red laser with a numerical aperature of 0.85; the technology required to even manufacture this thing didn't even exist 2 years ago!
To put those numbers into a bit of perspective, DVD lasers have an NA of 0.6, while HD-DVD's lasers have an NA of 0.65.
In technological terms, the tolerances required to manufacture this thing are in the same league as manufacturing a piece of bleeding edge medical e
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Sure. That's why I mentioned them. I can't see them costing $200, though. In a standalone Blu-Ray player however, the cost of the decoder will be substantially larger than the one you'd get in a similar DVD player. That cost does not need to be added to the PS3 becuase the Cell chip will take care of it.
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:3, Informative)
The cost of making a Blu-Ray player should fall dramatically once cheaper high-speed multimedia chips(a.k.a. Cell) are available.
Cell is ONE chip (Score:2)
Re:Cell is ONE chip (Score:2)
Re:Cell is ONE chip (Score:2)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:1)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
also, While Merill's estimates are on the
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Oh, so you think Merrill Lynch used information not available to the general public to create a report that might affect the price of stocks that Merrill Lynch most probably is invested in? You realize that Merrill Lynch execs can get jail time for that?
I guess we have narrowed the situation down to
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
further, there are several rules governing what you are talking about. research can come out with any report they want to. The rules state there can be no contact between your researc
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
Do the laws allow Merril Lynch to publish blatantly flawed research prejudicial to a competitor of a company that it and its clients are heavily invested in?
As far as your chinese wall goes, don't make me laugh. Does the wall also cut across the middle of restaurants and bars that employees from both sides frequent?
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
These people are paid to analyse the situation. They know what they're doing. They're professionals. I'm sure that they've already thought of any reason why the cost might be lower than some random guy on Slashdot has and ar
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
This guy has probably been analyzing hardware releases for the last 7 or 8 years and has a good idea as to how costs really go. You don't need to understand the underlying logic to figure out what hte costs are going to look like for
Re:Those Component Costs are off (Score:2)
And The Reason For Fall (Score:2)
I'd guess the retailers are getting the entire PS3 show in June/July. If there is an enterprising individual willing to incur the wrath of Sony and probably jeapordize a career, your opportunity at a "scoop" would be around that time.
Re:And The Reason For Fall (Score:2)
If they don't get it out by November, they'll miss the holiday season rush. I doubt Japan has anything so big in spring, so they won't lose much by pushing back that release. My bet is that they'll finagle the Japan/whatever release however they need to, to ensure that they get in on the holiday season here.
All press... (Score:3, Interesting)
Sadly then, we will have to read story after story about shortages, then manufacturing problems, etc... etc... Even though im a gadget whore and will probrably buy all 3 ( already bought the 360 ), all of this stuff has just burned me out on console gaming.
Re:All press... (Score:2)
Re:All press... (Score:1)
What do you mean by this? I assume TCA is Transaction Cost Analysis [sjsu.edu]?
Re:All press... (Score:1)
You must have missed the part where he said...
The point is that, console gaming is becoming so much hype on who has the most amazing system that games are getting over looked. Maybe it's just age, but I can tell you, I do not enjoy games as I once did. My Personnal opinion is that games have just gotten boring, sans a few d
It probably is just age (Score:1)
If you find that "games have just gotten boring" you may simply be outgrowing the hobby. There's as much good stuff as there's ever been. (And did you just cite Resident Evil 4 on Game Boy Color?!) If you were gaming around the time of the console crash of 1984, 99% of the titles were pure crap. Cha
Re:It probably is just age (Score:2)
the xbox has more ports than the other two. the xbox ports from the pc, and get most cross platform games. there are a few exceptions, but far, far less than for ps2 and gc.
Re:All press... (Score:1)
Sorry I just couldn't resist the urge. Help me, I'm sick!
PlayStation 3 Not So Much Delayed (Score:2, Funny)
Re:PlayStation 3 Not So Much Delayed (Score:2)
A Playstation 3 is never late, nor is it early. It arrives precisely when it means to.
Oh good (Score:2)
If it ships to North America and Europe over a full year after the XBox360, is it really in the same "generation"?
Re:Oh good (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Oh good (Score:2, Informative)
What sort of amazes me is that even though their last console came out before everyone else's, their newest console is a year behind the latest generation. I realize that the PS3 uses a totally new processor technology, but they still have taken a long time...
Re:Oh good (Score:1)
MS released the Xbox a year into the last generation, realized their horrible mistake, and then rushed in a year early to the current generation. That's a more accurate way to describe the current situation.
The original Xbox had a miniscule shelf life compared to the historical average for a console.
Re:Oh good (Score:2)
Accurate, my ass... (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh, please. The article itself says why it's not accurate. It lists the memory price as the same for the 360, and the PS3, and then goes on to describe how the PS3 is the first to use the new, expensive XDR memory, while the 360 uses GDDR3 which was designed speciffically to be cheaper than DDR2.
Not only that, but they have component prices listed as if they were being sold with a profit margin. You can bet Sony isn't going to markup chips it sells to itself, and for third party chips, you can bet they're paying a lot less. Even the launch quantities of these boxes far surpass what normally qualifies as economies of scale.
I'd say they have the costs far too high for both machines in that article. Both machines will have sub-$100 manufacturing costs on the CPU very early on in the production life, for example. Also, the BD-ROM drive is probably going to end up being more like $70. The DVD drive in the 360 is even cheaper than the $20 quoted, etc...
The PS3 will be expensive... More expensive to build than the 360, but neither machine is as expensive as this over-rated Merryl-Lynch report that's been being passed around.
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
I think the small army of Sony marketeers have a pretty good clue on how many units it'd sell at different price points. Even if they have miscalculated on what the final price would be, I doubt they'll follow up a bad decision with a horrible one. Taking a financial loss to get them out the door is painful but acceptable,
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
LOL.
The 6 year old PS2 sold over 20 million times last year, Microsoft will be happy when they sell 6 or 7 million in the first year with their brand-new XBox360.
Sony could wait until 2009 with the release of the PS3 - or even not release PS3 at all and still outsell XBox360.
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
Where is that rule from?
Sony is a Hardware R&D Company (Score:2)
IBM says they've been able to get the cost of fabbing the new cell chip down to about $50 bucks. Sony not only helped fund the fab i
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:3, Interesting)
Sounds like youa re repeating something you heard somewhere. The big difference between the XB and the PS2 is that the per-unit net profit on the PS2 was always positive. The only way it didn't start out turning a profit is if you include R&D costs as part of production costs... in which case the first PS2 cost $4.2 billion, and every one after turned a profit.
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:1)
Unless BD-ROM starts getting picked up by a lot of PC and Consumer Electronics OEMs, and soon, the price is going to be high for a while. The format isn't even locked down, an
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
I think that's BS. A lot of what makes BluRay player expensive is already included in the infrastructure of an HD console.
The format isn't even locked down,
Neither is the DVD format (!). It's locked down enough.
the "winner" of the HD-DVD/BD war *still* isn't clear cut!
That doesn't matter. Besides, the hardware components for the two will be cross compatable. The differenc
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
Some links
http://hometheater.about.com/od/dvdbasics/a/bluhdd vdinfo.htm [about.com]
http://hardware.gamespot.com/Story-ST-x-2077-x-x-x [gamespot.com]
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
Most of the d
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
as I can't find info either way though, I wouldn't mind a link with more info just to get up to date on it.
Re:Accurate, my ass... (Score:2)
The big deal was the laser and the caddy, but you'll see that they both use the blue laser now, and BluRay ditched the caddy so facilities that were set up to automatically process DVD sized discs wouldn't have to re-tool.
Want next gen? Try current gen. (Score:5, Interesting)
I hadn't used my PS2 for a few years until just recently. If you're in a similar position, my advice is if you want great "next generation" games, try some of the ones that have come out recently for your "old" console. The graphics and gameplay on Resident Evil 4, for instance, blew me away, and "Shadow of the Colossus" looks even more impressive. And we've got "Starcraft:Ghost" to look forward to later in the year.
So I'm not bothered if the PS3 doesn't come out for a while, PS2 games are at their peak and are probably be better than first gen PS3/XBox360 games.
Re:Want next gen? Try current gen. (Score:2)
Re:Want next gen? Try current gen. (Score:2)
Re:Want next gen? Try current gen. (Score:5, Insightful)
In every measurably regard, NFS:MW on the 360 is better then the XBox or PS2 versions.
With PGR3, graphically and controlwise, it is a much superior game to PGR2. They made some design decisions some people dont like ( car acquisition ) but excluding that, it is a much better game.
Lastly, CoD2 imho, is a better FPS then anything released for either platform, including Halo. Only beef here is online, which is rumoured to be fixed.
So, early on, I can already give you 3 examples of games that are much improved over the current generation, atleast, in my opinion.
Dont get me wrong, some arent going to compare as well ( Gun and 2k sport games come to mind ), but you will see that with every platform launch.
Re:Want next gen? Try current gen. (Score:2)
"Tune in tomorrow..." (Score:2)
Of course its delayed (Score:2)
The 360 has barely put a dent in PS2 sales therfore Sony can sit back and wait. The longer they can drag out the launch of the PS3, the more they can allow the PS2 to act as a cash cow. And even better, the longer they wait, the more steam they can take out of the only other competitor on the horizon (the Revolution)
Re:Of course its delayed (Score:2)
I can see where it would be a decent idea to finish up the ps3 and spend extra time hand holding your third party developers through the creation of your launch lineup. To me the 360 had a horrible launch, sony would be doing themselves a big favor with an awesome launch lineup + full backwards compatability.
Let's ask Apple about the iPod mini, then (Score:2)
Even in the keynote where Stevie Jobs introduced the nano line, he specifically went over the continuing success of the Minis, which the nanos then promptly replaced.
Apple competed with itself in the sense you're talking about, and it hasn't been bad business at all.
Re:Let's ask Apple about the iPod mini, then (Score:2)
Because they're not (Score:2)
Same reason car manufacturers sell more than one car - different markets. The PS2 currently sells for about $125 I think, and plays a ton of older games, though probably not all the current titles by the time the PS3 comes out. The PS3 will have a limited supply of games, but *will* have some exclusives (I guarantee it), and
And the marketing push? (Score:1)
They are 4 months till lauch, and still most people doesnt know what to expect of ps3, only a high introduction price...
I think marketing of ps3 is really losing its grip...
Many things are still missing...
Maybe this change to 7cores cell wasn`t a good idea...
Re:And the marketing push? (Score:1)
Europeans will have to wait again (Score:2, Interesting)
You have to give it to Microsoft that they decided for a global launch, despite the shortage situation in the US. It makes you feel part of the show when you don't have to sit and watch the forums cheer for their new toys when your release date is months away.
In the last months, some games were even released for the DS (BoF III) and PSP (Virtua Tennis) in Europe before the US got them. I thought we were catching up, but Sony s
Re:Europeans will have to wait again (Score:2)
Global launch? Pffft.
I can't imagine the PS3 situation will be any better.
Re:Europeans will have to wait again (Score:2)
Re:Europeans will have to wait again (Score:1)
Gee, I wonder why? A large extremely diverse population that buys far fewer game consoles per capita (and in total) than the US or Asia. If you have to pick one of the three major regions to shaft, Europe is the obvious choice from a financial perspective.
Re:Europeans will have to wait again (Score:2)
Hmmm (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm (Score:5, Funny)
Great Googley Moogley... (Score:2)
I know some of the packages for XBox 360's this holiday cost way up in that range or more on eBay... But seriously... who are these people willing to fork over a pretty good house payment for being the early adopter? For that kind of money... it better make me breakfast. [gorillamask.net]
As a Nintendo stock holder(yeah, ultimate fanboy!) (Score:2)
Seriously, this is not good for Sony. They obviously cannot control the rumor mill and there are multiple sources each with their own "inside contacts" who are making predictions that are all over the map. This can only cause confusion with potential buyers who may well just spend their money on something else rather than even consider saving up for a playstation....
Despite launch dates, cost, etc... (Score:2, Interesting)
Sell them for an inflated price when there's a mad rush to purchase them, and it will cover the cost for whatever time you've put in to it. If demand seems like it's going to be really good, i'd buy more than two if I had enough cash. It wont matter what the production costs are if there's some kind of a shortage, which there usually always is.
I've sold consoles like that on ebay & by word of mouth to several people in th
Re:Despite launch dates, cost, etc... (Score:1)
Actually, ignoring that lot there's not any content left to your post to do anything with. Ah well...
SIT powers? (Score:2)
Let's get HP involved.... then it will become the SITH powers (Sony, IBM, Toshiba, Hewlett-packard)
Re:SIT powers? (Score:3, Funny)
Why do I care what it costs to make? (Score:2)
Great, so it is the same as the Xbox 360. That it costs Sony more to make only means it is better for me, getting more for less. I can't understand how these articles make it sound like news that the new type of processor will cost more, or the drive will cost more. There seems to be a consensus that the price will have to be competitive,
BUT THE GAMES!!!!! (Score:2, Interesting)
Ummm (Score:5, Funny)
looking at the articles... (Score:1)
Pay $150-200 for a Blu-Ray drive integrated into the console now. Or pay $75-100 for a HD-DVD dettached drive later. We know HDDVD content will come out this year sometime...
If a good number of Blu-Ray content comes out before the PS3 hits the streets, that will render XBox and it's HDDVD useless--why? you know the PS3 hype will be evident next Nov. and the logically conclusion for early adopters is to buy the best stuff (HDDVD into the 360s will likely be a hack) cause you get what you pay fo
In reality, for Game Consoles, only 1 thing (Score:2)
Half of all revenues will be made between Thanksgiving and December 27th. So if you miss that window, you miss most of the money for the year.
So, a spring release can easily be pushed to summer, and even to fall, but never much later than Halloween.
Oh, and expect to buy a PS3 bundle for $249 (Score:2)
If you wait until summer the next year, the same box will sell for $199 at most.
Its all about time to market and entry price (Score:1)
Would it be possible to have an entry level PS3 with only a DVD drive? If so, combined with a likely lower processor price, the PS3 could have a relatively acceptable entry model (using the lower estimate and substituting a DVD driv
Absurd Price Analysys (Score:2)
Yes, cell is bigger than the Xbox 360's chip, but one factor they are completely ignoring is the fact that one SPE will be disabled. It does not matter which SPE is disabled, and this redundancy (which the 360 doesn't have) will improve yields. You can't simply say chip A is bigger so it will cost more.
In any event, the prices listed for both chips look closer to what the chips would cost if they were sold at retail, not the manufacturing cost.
On the subject of the drive:
Ye
Re:Absurd Price Analysys (Score:2)
If the on chip SRAMs work, you should get something like 90% fallthrough from that point (i.e. if SRAMs yield 50%, you should have something like 45% overall product yield)
On a related note, every major chip manufacturer has redundant resources embedded in the SRAMs so that they can repair chips that are not nominally good (trust me, the probability of making a nominally good part is VERY low on any fairly modern process)
SIT powers? (Score:2)
"The PS3 will be a showcase for the Cell processor from the SIT powers (Sony, IBM, Toshiba)..."
I would love to see Hitachi get involved here.
Don't buy it anyway (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Don't buy it anyway (Score:2)
Well that's okay then, I have options! I can buy a 360 or Revolution because Microsoft and Nintendo have never been the center of almight decade-long scandals!
Just cross-referencing some of the other posts (Score:2)
I assume internally the film division of Sony is wanting the thing coming out with all DRM guns-blazing, and the PS3 division is slightly pissy with what they're being made to do.
The 'big thing' with the PS3 is Sonys chance to get a shit-load of BR players into peoples homes at a reasonable cost - so the movie division can cash in selling films, the hardware division can get showered with lice
Re:What price tag? (Score:1, Offtopic)
Re:Nintendo (Score:1)
Re:Sony and Blu Ray on a Sinking Ship (Score:2)
Just a nit-picky point, but the optical drive itself has nothing to do with whether the player (drive + additional logic + every other bit of support electronics) can output progressive scan video. The optical drive is just a way to get the data off the media. The video output hardware and the MPEG decode software both live outside the optical drive. The BD-ROM drive in the PS3 will probably include some crypto/authentication
Re:Sony and Blu Ray on a Sinking Ship (Score:2)
You are missing the point that the BD-ROM drive will be a compelling selling point. Everyone already has a DVD player by now (as you can grab one from $35 or less at walmart). However, there will be a big media war for the next gen discs, between HD-DVD and BD-ROM. Sony has a definite interest in BluRay and they wa