PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011 314
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
Doesn't sound right (Score:5, Insightful)
Past != Future (Score:5, Insightful)
In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.
Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.
Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.
As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.
Wonder how they came up with those figures? (Score:5, Insightful)
Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.
Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.
360: $299 - $399
PS£: $499 - $599
Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.
Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.
At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.
Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
The success of the DS, and in particular the success of the touchscreen interface, has caused people to rethink the idea of innovative controls. The Wii seems like an obvious extension of that; now the PS3 looks like little more than an overclocked PS2 (regardless of the changes in its internal architecture).
Since the pattern of DS vs PSP seems almost identical to the Wii vs PS3, we figure that we can make a pretty good prediction.
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
Guys, guys, guys... (Score:5, Insightful)
While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.
Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.
Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.
I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.
It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.
Typo (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Contradicting themselves? (Score:2, Insightful)
The fact is that the console gaming market is very different from most markets you can examine. People buy gaming systems because of the games available for them and there are very few products that people purchase in order to gain the opportunity to buy another product. The PS3 is in a bad position (in my opinion) because people are going to say "Is Warhawk really worth $500?" or "I want Metal Gear Solid 4, but I'll wait for a price drop."
Ultimately, if people are reluctant to buy your system you'll sell less systems, if you sell less systems fewer developers will choose to make (exclusive) games for your system, when you have less (exclusive) games available people will be less likely to buy your system, and so on
Re:Contradicting themselves? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm a gamer and the Wiimote to me seems kind of a turn off. Don't really want it, but then I remember going "wow that touch screen is going to be so useless". Now I have to say I love my DS and the dual screens is insanely useful. The Wii will do the same, they'll have a rough start but people will soon get the hand of it and see how it should be used and then we'll open up entirely new genres, give us stuff we've always dreamed of (light saber fights are a hit with everyone).
So what is "I'm so hardcore I must have one of every console" doesn't dig the Wii. Thre are other options for them, but the Wii is going to be just like the gamecube as far as I can see. It won't be "teh uber popular" it won't be the strongest, but when you just want some fun and games you'll turn it on and get exactly what it said on the box.
As for the FPS comment.. Well when the hell did a console do FPS well? (STFU Halo fans before you even start). PCs are always better than consoles at FPS and RTS because they were more or less designed for their unique controls.
On the other hand think of playing something like Bushido blade with the Wii or a Zombie invasion style game where you have to fight off zombies as you escape the city or whatever.
Oh and are you forgetting the gamecube controller plugs straight into the Wiimote so we can play the "classic" style games at the same time?
Back catalog and developer support (Score:1, Insightful)
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
It has one major hardware advanatge which is the Blu-Ray player.
As for price, it's only $100 more than the 360 yet when you factor in Live costs is actually only $50 more - the first year. Plus is has a huge back catalog and a lot of developers onboard
If in two years the console is not doing well then developers might start dropping off the system, which would cause problems. Look how lond developers have hung around the PSP though which had a lot tougher barriers to entry!
As always, in the end the games for a system matter most. If the PS3 can deliver enough compelling games then people will buy the system despite the high price - on eBay for the whole month of December the average price for a 360 was around $800 which prooves that people will pay quite a lot for something new.
Yankee Group? I know that name... (Score:2, Insightful)
In other words, I wouldn't take their predictions too seriously. Given the news we've seen lately, and the fact that I hate Sony, I really want the PS3 to tank, anyhow
[1] Like I said, I'm pissed at Sony. Seriously, I'm still about as mad as if they'd run over my dog. Even being a long time fan of Final Fantasy, there's no damn way in hell I'll buy their console, and only a complete and thorough change in company policy and behavior would make me stop boycotting their products.
Re:So who paid for the survey? (Score:2, Insightful)
Nintendo's living Sega's dream (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:3, Insightful)
You have no idea what you're talking about, do you? I'm sure it'll make your head hurt, but let's do some math.
Given conditions:
- In a population (P), let's make a liberal estimate of 1% "hardcore" 39% "casual" and 60% non-gamers.
- A console's lifetime is 5 years.
- "Hardcore" gamers buy 5 games a year.
- "Casual" gamers buy 1 game a year (this accounts for the fact that they're likely to buy 2 or 3 games for the first 2 years and none after that).
- Non-gamers will buy nothing.
- A game console costs $X.
- A game costs $Y.
Over the course of the lifespan of a given console:
- A hardcore gamer will bring in $Y + 25X.
- A casual gamer will bring in $Y + 5X.
- A non-gamer will bring in $0.
Now applying this to a population of 100:
- "Hardcore" gamers bring in $Y + 25X
- "Casual" gamers bring in $39Y + 195X
Now for a population of 1,000,000:
- "Hardcore": $1000Y + 25,000X
- "Casual": $390,000Y + 1,950,000X
It's pretty clear with these numbers (admittedly, they came straight from my ass), that the "hardcore gamer" crowd is worth nothing when compared to the awesome crowds of the unwashed masses. Nintendo is aiming specifically at these "casual" gamers. You mention that "mom and pop may buy a Wii and [1 or 2] games" and that "the average Xbox360 owner already has [4 or 5] games", but what you're missing is that "mom and pop" outnumber "the average Xbox360 owner" by 200:1 or more. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Nintendo doesn't need hype to sell their console, and that PS and Xbox fanbois need to get used to being the minority. Hey, us Nintendo fanboys had to grow up, now you do too.
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:5, Insightful)
The Wii remote will be a fad - who honestly wants to wave that around: Yeah, it really looks like he's really waving it around [google.com]. Oh wait, it's small wrist movements which controls the action, not huge motions.
good luck using it in FPS games: Yeah, nobody [gamespy.com] liked [gamepro.com] the controls [gamespot.com] on Metroid Prime 3.
Whether or not you like it, marketing and hype is what sells consoles. I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot. Sorry.: Where's the PS3 hype? I see nothing in mainstream media and nothing but negativity from the online media. Where's the X360 hype? I haven't seen any since their launch a year ago. I also haven't seen any compelling reason to buy an Xbox 360 aside from maybe Xbox Live Arcade games (which I played 10 years ago)
Mario sux0rs to me - but Mom or the kid next door can have fun with it if they want: I'm honestly very sorry that you have a complex which prevents you from enjoying video games which are fun because you're afraid they are too "kiddy". If it's any consolation, you'll grow out of that once you graduate 9th grade.
Then again, I guess I shouldn't expect too much out of a user named "XpL1CiT". Have fun in High School kid.
What the hell? (Score:2, Insightful)
That might be because... (Score:3, Insightful)
After the games looked good, a new kind of gammer entered the market. The old school gamers that were more concerned with gameplay than graphics (because there were no good graphics) started getting out numbered by the new gamers that were more concerned with graphics than play. Once this tip happened, the developers started looking at numbers and saw that games with good graphics sold more, and good gameplay didn't affect sales in a significan enough way to matter. After all, good gameplay takes a lot of time and talent. Then when you are done, you still will be taking a gamble on whether you have succeded or not. Good graphics are a much easier defined characteristic, and it is a whole lot easier to find a good 3D artist than it is to find a good game designer.
Basically video games have become a victim of their own success.
Re:Contradicting themselves? (Score:3, Insightful)
Many people who grew up playing video games have lost interest. The games have become too complicated and often force you to sit through 5-10 minutes of story telling before even letting you attempt to play. If you're not into remembering which button throws grenades, which shoots your gun, which brings up your inventory, which calls for backup, then you're S.O.L. with current games.
I agree that stupid things are said on Slashdot. I laugh every time there is a story on some device and people on
Slashdot claim that nobody is interested in such a device unless they can upgrade the RAM or play Ogg Vorbis. However, I don't think the excitement over the Wii is the same as that.
People are excited for something fresh and new. They're also excited for something old and familiar. We do have to wait and see how the Wii actually functions before we can say for sure. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Wii takes off big. I decided on a whim to buy a Nintendo DS when the lite came out, and I've been playing it every single day since then. I'm constantly amazed at how people who have no interest in video games keep wanting to play Brain Age, or the mini games in Super Mario on my DS.
Hell, my grandma still plays Tetris every day on her old B&W gameboy. People want to play games, they're just not interested in learning how to control Halo.
Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:1, Insightful)
The only people I really see complaining about the PS3 are those that bought 360s and my only assumption here is that they don't want it to fail as the XBox did. Rightly so, but damn those MS bitches need to calm down a bit.
Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:3, Insightful)
You have to realize, that from the perspective of someone who would rave about any game console, pretty much everyone is apathetic. You have to be pretty far beyond casual to care that strongly about hardware that is still several months out and that nobody really knows what it's like.
For the record, I'm in the casual category. I have a gamecube, but I can't imagine myself buying a next-gen console any time in the next three or four years.
Re:Yankee Group? I know that name... (Score:1, Insightful)
Having Microsoft as pretty much the sole owner of the console space is a scary thought.
Re:Pardon Me For Being Cynical (Score:3, Insightful)