PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011 314
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
Market Analysis (Score:5, Funny)
Microsoft, can I have my check now?
I'll take a smaller check (Score:3, Funny)
Game over (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Game over (Score:5, Funny)
Doesn't sound right (Score:5, Insightful)
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Bottom line market share won't matter as much with this gen, at 800$ people won't be buying games.
Developing for an $800 console just seems like a bad bad idea.
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but there are things called other countrys, the extra $200-$300 comes from a certain country's currency transfered into US dollars cause you know, Americans are uber smart and know the exchange rate right off th top of their heads and finding a site to find out how much someone is paying for something in their native currency.
Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:5, Interesting)
Funny that they claimed that there would be a small up-turn in total consoles sold next-gen over current gen, but somehow the total they predict for all 3 consoles comes in under what the PS2 sold. In Japan alone.
Seriously, I doubt the Yankee Group's adding skills, much less their predicting skills.
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Re:Doesn't sound right (Score:4, Interesting)
I'd say Microsoft and Nintendo could run away with this next generation if they learn to market it well... get the Wii-Mote in peoples hands through kiosks, show off TV adds for all the different games in your library etc. If they could out-market Sony and publicly ridicule their price point then they'd have a fighting chance to combat the people who will buy the PS3 just because it's the sequel to the PS2.
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However, most of my friends are more casual gamers or non-gamers. You may know more hardcore gamers. I only really have 1-2 friends who would qualify as hardcore... and one of those is a Nintendo FANATIC. Like, scarily so.
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You have to realize, that from the perspective of someone who would rave about any game console, pretty much everyone is apathetic. You have to be pretty far beyond casual to care that strongly about hardware that is still several months out and that nobody really knows what it's like.
For the record, I'm in the casual category. I have a gamecube, but I can't imagin
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To compare to the previous generations, MS and Sony are selling the
The Yankee group confirms... (Score:4, Funny)
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If that means the Wii will run BSD, I'm all for it!
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They were wrong then.
Past != Future (Score:5, Insightful)
In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.
Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.
Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.
As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
The success of the DS, and in particular the success of the touchscreen interface, has caused people to rethink the idea of innovative controls. The Wii seems like an obvious extension of that; now the PS3 looks like little more than an overclocked PS2 (regardless of the changes in its internal architecture).
Since the pattern of DS vs PSP seems almost identical to the Wii vs PS3, we figure that we can make a pretty good prediction.
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And in the end thats also kind of what happened, there are still tons of games around (NSMB, Mario64, AdvanceWars, MarioKart, Castlevania, etc.) which make little or no use of the touchscreen. However the DS is successfull because those games are actually great and because those are not the only games available, there are also those games that do make use of the t
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It's really all about price. Assuming that Nintendo doesn't do something crazy it is going to be far less expensive than the other consoles. Hard core gamers are going to pick one up so they can play the Nintendo exclusive titles, and folks that are only interested in buying one console will be far more likely to purchase the least expensive console, assuming that the games for it are any good.
Nintendo's games are likely to be very good.
The DS vs. PSP showdown is quite similar actually. On paper the
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This Elementary Math Lesson Brought To You By Valthan
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Yes, if you're looking at total numbr of consoles sold but I'd assumed the GP was talking about how many people own the consoles. In that case, it makes perfect sense to have numbers over 100%, because it's not comparative. For example, there are 100 people who own *any* next-gen console. 50 have a 360 AND a Wii, 30 have only a Wii
Re:Wii only gets 16% marketshare?!? (Score:5, Insightful)
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Wii only 15%? Man these people are clueless! Wii will have a 300% market share as every man woman and child in the world realizes that it's the best gaming console ever! It appeals to everyone and the controller is innovative! Also I'm sure only a few months into its lifetime, Nintendo will release a game that not only turns your kids into supergeniuses but also can cure cancer if left on overnight. But leaving it on overnight won't be a problem because the Wii a
I might get one (Score:2)
But lately I've been digging int
Well... (Score:2)
Wonder how they came up with those figures? (Score:5, Insightful)
Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.
Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.
360: $299 - $399
PS£: $499 - $599
Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.
Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.
At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.
Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.
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(Pulled From Ass)
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Contradicting themselves? (Score:5, Interesting)
Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?
Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.
Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).
I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.
This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?
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The fact is that the console gaming market is very different from most markets you can examine. People buy g
Re:Contradicting themselves? (Score:5, Insightful)
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Many people who grew up playing video games have lost interest. The games have become too complicated and often force you to sit through 5-10 minutes of story telling before even letting you attempt to play. If you're not into remembering which button throws grenades, which shoots your gun, which brings up you
Not contradictory (Score:2)
Very possible, if people prefer the PS3 as a console. The highest price in a market is not nessicarily the one with the lowest market share. It's a lot cheaper to buy Big K soda or other generic equivilent yet Coke still domiantes the soda market.
MS will undercut PS3?
Yes, and? It seems pretty clear they will do so (though the last I head they had no plans for price cuts this Christmas since the PS3 is more expensive to start with).
What about Wii?
The Wii at this poin
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I waited on the PS1 until they had the PSOne (mini one), then I waited on the PS2 until I could find a used one for $70 this summer. I rush out and bought the PSP though but I've been regretting it, the promse of "handheld PS2" just hasn't come true, it's been nearly 18 months and there's still no God of War or Gran Turismo game yet. I never bothered with the Xbox or Gamecube.
Out of all the next gen consoles the
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What about it? I don't care how much the Wii costs, from what I have seen (mostly here because no one else seems to give a shit about it) it won't offer me what I like to play. The XBox and the PS3 do/will.
Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of ha
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I had so little games for the PS1 because I didn't play it all that much nor care for the games available. The last game I actually played and liked was Metal Gear Solid. I didn't drop out of gaming because of anything other than boredom with what gaming
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I only see that trend here on Slashdot, sorry.
That might be because... (Score:3, Insightful)
After the games looked good, a new kind of gammer entered the market. The old school gamers that were more conce
Now hear this! (Score:5, Funny)
Please send the usual large bags of moneys for my business-analyisisting fees to my Summerhouse in the Hamptons, will you? thx.
What did you Expect? (Score:5, Funny)
Are we too sure? (Score:4, Funny)
Guys, guys, guys... (Score:5, Insightful)
While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.
Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.
Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.
I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.
It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.
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The Nintendo DS, along with its friends Nintendogs and Brain Age, say you're wrong. And they say you're wrong to the tune of 21+ million sales in 18 months worldwide with THIRTEEN [wikipedia.org] million+ selling games. Nintendogs alone is over 7 million worldwide.
"Risky" isn't exactly the word I'd use here.
-1 flamebait (Score:3, Interesting)
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Proposal: (Score:3, Informative)
The tag?
"Bullshit".
Typo (Score:4, Insightful)
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I guarantee to you that all the optical drives in all PS2s will die by 2009. That's even if you go out and buy one now. That is Sony's ultimate plan to make you buy a PS3 with their fancy new Blue-DRM - so you can play all those games you have on your shelf since your PS2 died.
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I've been wondering about that (Score:2)
Really, Its true! (Score:5, Funny)
Because the PSP is far outselling the DS.....wait (Score:2, Interesting)
A new law... (Score:5, Interesting)
i.e.
Those that do not comply will be publicly flogged and generally shunned.
does this mean i'll get a raise? (Score:2, Funny)
Nintendo's living Sega's dream (Score:5, Insightful)
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What the hell? (Score:2, Insightful)
sorta offtopic (Score:2)
Wrong conclusions, but maybe flawed metrics too? (Score:5, Interesting)
Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.
My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).
Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.
When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.
Rambus in PS3 (Score:2)
As someone who is not a gamer... (Score:3, Interesting)
However, despite my total lack of interest in gaming for the past 20 years, the Wii has caught my eye. I want one. The name is silly, but even so, it actually looks FUN! If it actually delivers as much as it promises then they will soar.
There's a whole non-gamer gaming market out there - just like me. Even girls would buy one if they do an OMG Ponies!!!1!! game (and they should).
If I want one so will others. Don't listen to the Sony and MS shills!
Yeah...I know... never touched a game...I'll be handing in my Geek ID card at the end of the article.
A market study on an unreleased product (Score:2)
I doubt this firm's accounting/mathematical skills (Score:2)
This article is pure FUD, and should be tagged as such. Speculation or not they totally fail to do what any GOOD group would do and consider other factors.
The turbulence makes it impossible to predict... (Score:5, Interesting)
Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:
Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.
Re:So who paid for the survey? (Score:5, Funny)
Wait a minute... wasn't the PS3 from Microsoft's compeditor?
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Yes, and this "study" proposes that Sony will lose a large portion of its market lead (but not its entire lead) in this coming generation to... Microsoft's XBox 360.
Things that make you go hmmm.
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Re:So who paid for the survey? (Score:5, Funny)
Now tell me, can you get THAT on your 360? I didn't think so.
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Yankee Group? I know that name... (Score:2, Insightful)
In other words, I wouldn't take their predictions too seriously. Given the news we've seen lately, and the fact that I hate Sony, I really want the PS3 to tank, anyhow
Re:So who paid for the survey? (Score:5, Funny)
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Sure, every brand has its fanboys, but I think the majority of gamers will buy whichever one of the current generation appeals to them the most based on the normal factors one uses to evaluate choices in high-priced entertainment (and I'm not talking about wha
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It is all about the games, and the experience the games give you. Provided Nintendo's new controller idea is a lot of fun to play with, I have a feeling you'll see a market shift.
Fanboys can change allegiance, and will if the tech is cool enough.
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:5, Insightful)
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with a mouse but way better than the usual stick on the pad.
As for the hype, have you been living in a parallel universe, ever since E3 Nintendo went from the underdog to the must have console
and the recent DS push helps that as well.
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I'm a gamer and the Wiimote to me seems kind of a turn off. Don't really want it, but then I remember going "wow that touch screen is going to be so useless". Now I have to say I love my DS and the dual screens is insanely useful. The Wii will do the same, they'll have a rough start but people will soon get the hand of it and see how it should be used and then we'll open up entirely new genres, give us stuff we've always dreamed of (light saber fights are a hit with everyone).
So what i
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You have no idea what you're talking about, do you? I'm sure it'll make your head hurt, but let's do some math.
Given conditions:
- In a population (P), let's make a liberal estimate of 1% "hardcore" 39% "casual" and 60% non-gamers.
- A console's lifetime is 5 years.
- "Hardcore" gamers buy 5 games a year.
- "Casual" gamers buy 1 game a year (this accounts for the fact that they're likely to buy 2 or 3 games for the first 2 years and none after that).
- Non-gamers will buy noth
Re:Just Because Techies Are Excited... (Score:5, Insightful)
The Wii remote will be a fad - who honestly wants to wave that around: Yeah, it really looks like he's really waving it around [google.com]. Oh wait, it's small wrist movements which controls the action, not huge motions.
good luck using it in FPS games: Yeah, nobody [gamespy.com] liked [gamepro.com] the controls [gamespot.com] on Metroid Prime 3.
Whether or not you like it, marketing and hype is what sells consoles. I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot. Sorry.: Where's the PS3 hype? I see nothing in mainstream media and nothing but negativity from the online media. Where's the X360 hype? I haven't seen any since their launch a year ago. I also haven't seen any compelling reason to buy an Xbox 360 aside from maybe Xbox Live Arcade games (which I played 10 years ago)
Mario sux0rs to me - but Mom or the kid next door can have fun with it if they want: I'm honestly very sorry that you have a complex which prevents you from enjoying video games which are fun because you're afraid they are too "kiddy". If it's any consolation, you'll grow out of that once you graduate 9th grade.
Then again, I guess I shouldn't expect too much out of a user named "XpL1CiT". Have fun in High School kid.
Am I the only one (Score:2)
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It seems to me as if the pointing device and joystick (similar to a mouse and keyboard) would be superior to a gamepad in a FPS. It sure looks nicer than having to move two analog sticks or using an analog stick and shoulder buttons (with fixed looking up and down speeds.)
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Man,... you must be going blind, then. Or you never read anything at all related to video games. The Wii's had a turn on the cover of almost every video game magazine on the rack, as well as articles on CNN and in Time. And I'm sure there's plenty more that I didn't see.
Look, the simple matter is that the DS is selling faster than any system ever. Period. And the PSP is easily the technically superior one, but the DS has it beat on pr
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It's also an attack against Microsoft's bottom line. What if the average Joe/jane figures out that they can do the things they want to do on a computer on the PS3. If little bobby wants to do is homework while Mom & Dad are doing whatever they can just point little bobby to his PS3. or vice versa. Thus reducing the demand for multiple Wintel machines in a household, thus cutting into Microsoft's profits.