India Overtakes Japan As 4th-Largest Economy 34
An anonymous reader quotes a report from DW: India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, according to calculations in the Indian government's end-of-year economic review. On current trends, India is expected to overtake Germany to become the world's third-largest economy within the next three years, the review said.
The review said India's gross domestic product has already reached about $4.18 trillion, and is projected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030. On current trends, it said, India would trail only the United States and China in economic heft. India's real GDP grew 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025-26 financial year, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter and marking a six-quarter high.
Export performance has also strengthened, the review noted. Merchandise exports rose to $38.13 billion in November, up from $36.43 billion in January, supported by engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. Official confirmation however depends on data due in 2026 when final annual GDP figures are released. The International Monetary Fund suggests India will surpass Japan next year. The Reserve Bank of India has revised its growth forecast for the 2025-26 financial year upward to 7.3%.
The review said India's gross domestic product has already reached about $4.18 trillion, and is projected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030. On current trends, it said, India would trail only the United States and China in economic heft. India's real GDP grew 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025-26 financial year, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter and marking a six-quarter high.
Export performance has also strengthened, the review noted. Merchandise exports rose to $38.13 billion in November, up from $36.43 billion in January, supported by engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. Official confirmation however depends on data due in 2026 when final annual GDP figures are released. The International Monetary Fund suggests India will surpass Japan next year. The Reserve Bank of India has revised its growth forecast for the 2025-26 financial year upward to 7.3%.
Japan population (Score:3)
I think I would rather live in a country where the slices of the pie are not wafer thin, even if the overall pie is smaller.
Re: Japan population (Score:2)
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i would rather not live in a country vassal to the us, squeezed and commandeered into geopolitical conflict by the us in its own desperate empire saving rage (that's what "friends" are for, right?), with a debt 2.5 times their gdp, with an acute demographic crisis, a currency in precarious equilibrium and stagnating production numbers. and i actually like japan very much, but thanks but no thanks, they're rushing head on into a very rough ride. india? not really. you would be fine there.
mind, i'm in europe
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Oh please, it's well within Japan's power to amend its constitution to allow it to build its own military and free itself of American dependence. It's hardly a vassal, it's more like parts of Western Europe given their own dependence on the American military due to many of the countries there completely neglecting their militaries for decades. They depend on us but can certainly stop if they really want to and said dependence doesn't really stop them from doing their own thing most of the time.
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Holy fucking hell- please- go live in India.
There's a reason India's primary export is professionals. Anyone who can get the fuck out of there will get the fuck out of there.
What a bizarre fucking take.
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the perception that the present is all what there will ever be with just a different veneer is a normal human thing, but if you pay attention you should be able to track how things fundamentally change. maybe you're too distracetd by clichés and feeling scandalized by bizarre sounding thoughts, because they've been changing quite dramatically for a while. india is becoming a new powerhouse, and japan is going broke.
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One of these places is not like the other. One is clean, and doesn't smell like feces whenever the wind blows in from the wrong side.
As I said- enjoy, lol.
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I do live in India, and I wouldn't choose to live anywhere else, At some point a decade ago, I might have considered the US or some parts of Europe. No longer. I have no desire to be surrounded by people who are hostile, contemptuous and think of me as an outsider. Might as well spend that energy getting India there, and making good money in the process.
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Western people aren't going to settle into life in Mumbai in large numbers. It's.... dirty and kind of disgusting. I'm sorry. It just is.
The slums are one of the most horrific things I have seen in my entire life.
GDP vs per CAPITA GDP (Score:2)
Technically true, but ... (Score:4, Informative)
India Overtakes Japan As 4th-Largest Economy
California actually ranks just before Japan, and (apparently) neither have released their final 2026 numbers. From Dec 30, 2025: India Overtakes California As World’s Fourth Largest Economy—Data [newsweek.com]:
India has become the fourth largest economy in the world, according to the Indian government's end-of-year economic review, potentially passing Japan and California.
"With GDP valued at US$4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next two-and-a-half to three years, with projected GDP of US$7.3 trillion by 2030."
Japan and California are yet to release GDP estimates for the year. Official confirmation of figures will rely on the IMF's final annual GDP figures expected in the first half of 2026.
In April this year, IMF's data showed California’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached $4.10trillion, surpassing Japan’s $4.01trillion.
Alternate source: India is set to overtake Japan - and, yes, California - and become the world's fourth-largest economy [morningstar.com]
From May 2025: Mapped: The World’s Largest Economies, Including U.S. States [visualcapitalist.com]:
1 U.S. - $29,184,900
2 China - $18,748,009
3 Germany - $4,658,526
4 California - $4,103,124
5 Japan - $4,026,211
6 India - $3,909,097
7 UK - $3,644,636
8 France - $3,162,023
9 Texas - $2,709,393
10 Italy - $2,372,059
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In your above list, does US include or exclude California?
Not my list, so you'd have to check with the publisher, but I'm guessing it does as list notes "would rank 4th in the world if it was its own country." Note that Texas is also there at #9, and other states too further down on the complete list on that map page, like NY at #11 and FL at #19. I imagine that site has other maps/lists that break down other countries like this too, but don't know.
GDP means nothing - it is not weighed relatively (Score:3)
Re: GDP means nothing - it is not weighed relative (Score:1)
So this is all about moods created by numerology according to an agenda where countries are incentivized by "economic heft" to inflate their results, making effective margins of error on GDP so large you could tell any story and be supported by "the data"?
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No single metric is enough to compare two vastly different economies such as Japan and India. All the metrics give view from a particular angle. GDP, per capita GDP, PPP GDP and so on.
No one in India is claiming that it has better quality of life either.
This is just one of the measures in which it overtook Japan and that is it. You are vastly extrapolating it for no reason.
No contest... (Score:2)
per capita (Score:3)
According to wikipedia IMF statistics:
India is 142nd in per capita gdp.
Japan is 38.
China is 75.
USA is 8.
BTW, Ireland is 3.
India bashing (Score:2)
The title clearly says that India overtakes Japan in total GDP. Nowhere it claims it is per capita or Indians are doing better than Japanese. This should be obvious to any fifth grader.
Despite that there are so many people bashing India and pointing out the obvious.
Let us face it, this is a great milestone for India and we should congratulate India for this achievement. When someone achieves a medal in college for sprinting, you don't put them down by saying how slow that person is compared to Ussain Bolt.
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"A country that has the world's largest population is bound to rank high in terms of the size of the economy"
Few years ago, people were using same language for China.
In 1995, Japan's GDP was 15x that of India. So it is not given. It is a great achievement for India and it deserves congratulations. I am not saying it is worthy of praise, but it still made good achievement. It was 16th in GDP rank in 1994 and now it is 4th.
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