Tsunami Warning System Up and Running 97
SEWilco writes "UNESCO has announced that their Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System is up and running as scheduled. From the article: 'Twenty-six out of a possible 28 national tsunami information centers, capable of receiving and distributing tsunami advisories around the clock have been set up in Indian Ocean countries. The seismographic network has been improved, with 25 new stations being deployed and linked in real-time to analysis centers. There are also three Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) sensors. The Commission for the Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is also contributing data from seismographic stations."
Great - but local challenges (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:4, Insightful)
What you can do with tsunamis though is give the people who can react a chance to do something. Even fifteen minutes warning might save lives - enough time to get the hell away from the beach and seek shelter.
You're right that it won't be enough in far flung areas. But an imperfect system that will do some good is better than no system - better a cheap condom than none at all to draw a crude analogy...
Looks great on paper, won't do anything (Score:4, Interesting)
* You've got about three hours to six hours from the time the earthquake is detected to the time the tsunami makes landfall. The US, which has none of the problems I'm about to outline, can barely accomplish a passable evacuation over three days (72 hours).
* In those same three hours, you have to evacuate between several hundred thousand to several million people, spread over multiple countries and an absolutely gigantic geographic region.
* The overwhelming majority of them live in coastal cities which have no significant landmass which is high above sea level.
* Your challenges include the fact that most of these folks do not own a television or radio, many of them do not trust your government (and some will shoot your agents on sight), road conditions are poor and gridlock is a fact of life *every* morning to say nothing of when everyone is taking the one single-lane dirt road to safety, and you've got to coordinate the efforts of multiple national governments, most of which are barely competent in the best of times.
* The first time you have a false alarm and order the *immediate and that means NOW* shutdown of 6+ national economies for a day, your program will get canceled. Murphy's Law being what it is, you will be shut down just in time to miss The Big One.
* Pick an hour, any hour, for the tsunami to occur. If it occurs in mid-morning your populace will be gridlocked and unreachable for warning alerts. If it occurs during the workday, ditto. If it occurs after work hours or, God forbid, during the night you'll never get the news to everybody in time.
US Tsunami response is *much* better than that (Score:4, Interesting)
My wife grew up in Hawaii and California, so while I was learning things in elementary school about "that's the local volunteer fire department siren" and "if the CONELRAD Alert says the Russians are attacking, hide under the desk and kiss your ass goodbye", she was learning things like "that's the tsunami warning siren, if it goes off Run Uphill", and "if there's an earthquake, go stand in the doorway where the ceiling won't fall on you." First decent-sized earthquake after we moved to California, she went over to the doorway and yelled at me for not knowing to do the same thing, but I was just as clueless about that as I was about what the Granny Goose commercials on TV were trying to sell.
When Hurricane Iniki trashed Kauai in 1992, about 6 people were killed, 1400 homes destroyed, and 5000 seriously damaged, but there was enough advance preparation that most people were safe; that's the sort of thing that happens when you've got useful local management, and back in those days FEMA had just been dealing with Hurricane Andrew so they had a warmup round, and they were much stronger politically as opposed to being a dumping ground for Bush the Younger's less competent friends.
Re:Looks great on paper, won't do anything (Score:3, Insightful)
One advantage:
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:2, Funny)
Do they have TV ?
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:2)
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:2)
Like, say, boats ?
In open sea, a tsunami is just a few meters high with low-angle sides. A rowboat would clear it just fine. And most people who live in small islands have boats and can reach them quickly (since the island is small).
Hec
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:2)
Re:Kickass dorm room setup (Score:2)
Re:Kickass dorm room setup (Score:2)
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:5, Informative)
I guarantee you that the people who are working on this system are aware of this and thinking about ways to address it. Broadly, there are two things that need to be done: advance prep, and getting the warning out.
Advance prep means:
One problem with this is that there may not BE a local spot suitable for a rendezvous. If you live on an atoll where the highest land is 2 meters above sea level, there's no high ground. In this case, it might be necessary to build something. Perhaps Engineers without Borders can build a bunker. Or maybe a completely alternate plan will have to be developed. It'll depend on the exact local circumstances.
When the tsunami is detected, it'll be a matter of issuing warnings to as many people as possible as fast as possible, with specific recommendations. For maximum effect, they'll need to use every channel of communication possible.
Lastly, there needs to be a message with specific recommendations. Namely:
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:1)
Re:Great - but local challenges (Score:1, Insightful)
stay in their house to safeguard their belongings from looters.
Without effective local policing, Asian residents seldom evacuate.
Additionally, one false warning and future ones will be ignored until
the next big one.
Re:Fake (Score:1)
so since earthquakes out at sea can cause to happen they can watch for tremors and such and say "the chances of an event are slim -> bad --> decent ---> good ----->
OH $41T head for the hills we have one coming" and have enough time to be watching the tide go OOOUUUTTT !!!! from a tall location (thats a good distance inland)
Re:Fake (Score:2)
Re:Fake (Score:2)
A peace of war. (Score:3, Interesting)
Nice to know something good came from the Cold War.
Re:A peace of war. (Score:2)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:4, Funny)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:1)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:2)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:5, Informative)
Re:A peace of war. (Score:2, Interesting)
And y
Re:A peace of war. (Score:2)
Following the rule "never volunteer" means that you'll get stuck with the (likely shitty) task no one volunteered for, and also look lazy. The trick is volunteering as soon as there's something you don't mind doing; that way you'll avoid the nasty task and appearance of laziness.
Oh, and you also learn to shoot with an assault rifle, but that's a secondary sur
Re:A peace of war. (Score:1)
It's not a bad thing (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:2)
I also respect that it would be unacceptable not to make an early warning system to prevent a so massive death toll in a future tsunami.
But isn't it a bit political? I mean, how often do massive tsunamis occur in the Indian Ocean? As far as I know it's fairly rare. I think maybe UNESCO should play it safe and construct a worldwide system, or they'll look mighty stupid next time a tsunami hits someplac
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:4, Insightful)
Early warning systems in both southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent will do the most good. Rio is vulnerable to be sure, but a disaster there won't be as far reaching, or claim as many lives. Also, if we're talking natural disasters in central America, I'd worry more about hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico than tidal waves in the south Atlantic.
That being said, a global system is a good idea, assuming we could find the funding needed.
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It's not a bad thing (Score:2, Informative)
Sample Warning Message (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Sample Warning Message (Score:2)
Timely (Score:2, Funny)
Good news! (Score:5, Insightful)
Who would you phone, in a couple of minutes? The embassies?
That is about as effective as standing out on the front lawn and yellowing "There's a tsunami coming!"
So as I said, this is great news. It will allow international researchers to warn places of the impending wave, and helpfully save a few lives.
Re:Good news! (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Good news! (Score:4, Informative)
The core is that an earthquate happened in the alutians earlier this year in the night. The early warning system went off - some govt official here look at it and decided the risk was too low, and ignored it.
Somehow information about the earthquake and "possible" wave was picked up by [bbc.co.uk] overseas [cnn.com] press [usgs.gov] and reported as roughly a "tsunami is heading for the east coast of NZ".
Overseas people began calling NZers [stuff.co.nz] they knew on the east coast telling them to run for the hills. The locals did (at about 5:30am), grabbing their neighbours and dogs.
In the end the govt official was right - there was no tsunami. Be nice if they told someone [stuff.co.nz].
Anyway, point is that calling someone *did* work. People overseas called NZ and the word spread *fast*. I don't know whether it was fast enough to be useful, but there's something in there thats useful. Dont call people here - broadcast the news on the internet and news. *Someone* listening will know people in the affected area and the mass phone calls will start.
Re:Good news! (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Good news! (Score:3, Insightful)
That's very nice - but about as relevant as rice sales in Antartica.
The nations surrounding the Indian Ocean by and large *aren't* nati
Who you gonna call? Satellite TV news (Score:2)
Will this reach everybody? No - as other people have commented, there are lots of areas without much infrastructure, and small non-touristy islands a
Won't help the people in India much. (Score:5, Interesting)
At the same time, regardless of these problems, an early warning system like this will save *some* lives, and any life saved is precious!
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:4, Interesting)
The biggest problem with my country, India, is that an early warning system won't make much of a difference because there is no way to inform most of the thousands of villages and settlements on the coastlines.
That pretty goes for every country in the 2004 tsunami zone. As others have said, a bit more regional and local cooperation is what is really needed - our (U.S.) best seismologists and such knowing that a tsunami is coming is nice, but for those that don't have CNN/BBC/whatever piped into their homes, the news will be late. Your comment is true, but a little too narrow-focused - and typical of the kinds of challenges faced in these situations.
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:2)
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:2)
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:2)
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:1)
Re:Won't help the people in India much. (Score:2)
I should know; my grandfather survived a cy
Re:good (Score:2)
Re:good (Score:1)
Re:good (Score:1)
UN (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:UN (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:UN (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:UN (Score:2, Funny)
Re:UN (Score:1, Funny)
Re:Its Just George Covering His Butt... (Score:2)
I realize this is a joke, but who do you think you're mocking? Did any
Re:Its Just George Covering His Butt... (Score:2)
There wasn't anybody credible, but plenty of heavy breathers at places like moveon.org and democraticunderground.com and various political blogs were saying that, since global warming made this tsunami more likely (a position espoused by some global warming alarmists), George W. Bush is re
Re:Its Just George Covering His Butt... (Score:2)
Bruce
Great example of technology at work (Score:4, Insightful)
The logical next step is to link the new Tsunami grids around the world and crunch some data. There could be very interesting research into deep ocean wave effects.
For people BELOW sea level (Score:1)
Say "Kiss your ass goodbye"?. How does this help? In waht way does this mitigate the destruction or human suffering?
Are you posting "feel good" news, or news that has a REAL effect on people?
Re:For people BELOW sea level (Score:1, Troll)
Re:For people BELOW sea level (Score:1)
Tell people to go to a hill 51 feet above sea level? Some people were saved because they knew the warning signs, either through tribal legend or research.
Re:For people BELOW sea level (Score:1)
And there are lots of other ways to prepare and to save lots of lives, even with but an hour notice.
Re:For people BELOW sea level (Score:2)
Well, it lets you know that now would be a good time to climb 60 feet above sea level. Say, a hill, a large house, a tall tree...
Failing that, it tells you that now would be a good time to run as far inland as you can. A tsunami loses energy from friction once it makes landfall,
Cheaper system... (Score:5, Interesting)
Seriously, it was well reported that the local wildlife at the locations where the Tsunami hit were safe in the hills away from the disaster. What were they sensing?
Re:Cheaper system... (Score:2)
The problem with us using that as our warning system is that villages will evacuate every time explosives
Debunked time and time over (Score:2)
Will they continue to operate? (Score:3, Funny)
Tsunami stations are all well and good, but will they continue to operate after the mega ice storms freeze the entire ocean solid the Day After Tomorrow [foxhome.com]?
Perhaps the money would better be spent installing giant space heaters, especially along the northern border states.
Does anyone know? (Score:2)
Re:Does anyone know? (Score:2)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disa
Re:Does anyone know? (Score:2)
Re:Does anyone know? (Score:2)
In either case, 26th December will be a gruesome date for me from now on. I don't think
and then a legal issue (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:and then a legal issue (Score:2)
Oh, wait, this is in the Indian Ocean region, not the USA...