Firefox Breaks 50,000,000 Barrier

MrDrBob writes "Today at 16:59 GMT (8:58 AM PST) Mozilla Firefox received its 50,000,000th download. To celebrate, SpreadFirefox.com has created a special page, where you can watch the downloads continue to climb in real time. Three cheers for Firefox! May it go on swiftly to 100,000,000!"

Rumor has it

[Anonymous Coward]

That if they reach 100 million downloads in the next four days, Blake Ross will fly to the moon under his own power.

Re:Rumor has it

[ackthpt]

That if they reach 100 million downloads in the next four days, Blake Ross will fly to the moon under his own power.

I think Bill Gates would volunteer to fly him there.

Re:Rumor has it

[carpe_noctem]

Looks like their slogan "Where do you want to go today?" could take on a whole new meaning!

Re:Rumor has it

[Man in Spandex]

[McBain Voice] Up and at them.

Re:Rumor has it

[Zemplar]

" That if they reach 100 million downloads in the next four days, Blake Ross will fly to the moon under his own power."

He should fly to mars instead and give the rover a push.

Time zones

[Anonymous Coward]

"Today at 16:59 GMT (8:58 AM PST) ..."

*blink*

Re:Time zones

[nharmon]

You didn't know GMT and PST were off 8 hours and 1 second?

Mod Parent Up

[temojen]

It's worse than Newfoundland.

Downloads per user

[r_glen]

So how many unique users does that translate to? Anyone with a reasonable estimate?

Re:Downloads per user

[stinerman]

It depends on how many people install it and how many people have downloaded versions 1.0, 1.0.1, etc.

I don't download from there anyway. At work I use Portable Firefox [johnhaller.com], and at home I use the MOOX builds [www.moox.ws].

I'd say you could safely estimate 60% of those are unique with about 35% of them keeping it installed and in use. [No flames, please; I'm just guessing.]

Re:Downloads per user

[Ironsides]

So how many unique users does that translate to? Anyone with a reasonable estimate?

Well, seeing as how I've downloaded it at least 10 times (multiple versions, multiple computers), that might knock it down to 5 million. However, given that I distribute the ones I have downloaded to other people (takes less time for a LAN transfer than a dload), that might average out to 5 times per person. 10 million maybe? Then again, I haven't been using FireFox that long and other people have had more/less repeat d

Re:Downloads per user

[Total_Wimp]

So how many unique users does that translate to? Anyone with a reasonable estimate?

I know I've downloaded it about 15 times for about 4 unique users. Upgrades and redownloading for convienience instead of carrying around a disk are both big culprits.

I have no idea how I stack up with everyone else, but that's roughly a 4-1 download to usage ratio for me.

TW

Re:Downloads per user

[MarkByers]

Seeing as I am downloading it directly from portage, this will not be counted by their download counter. I guess that many of the other posters have forgotten this and have probably underestimated the number of unique users by excluding most Linux users.

Re:Downloads per user

[Given M. Sur]

Why do so many Gentoo users get this confused.

Gentoo does not host the packages that you download. They host the ebuilds and the ebuilds tell portage where to download the packages from.

So, you downloaded it directly from mozilla. Check the ebuild yourself if you don't believe me.

Re:Downloads per user

[MarkByers]

OK, I checked and you are right. From the ebuild:

SRC_URI="http://ftp.mozilla.org/pub/mozilla.org/ fi refox/releases/${MY_PV}/source/firefox-${MY_PV}-so urce.tar.bz2"

Sorry! But I bet some distros host their own copies?

Re:Downloads per user

[thephotoman]

Indeed, they do. Most of the Debian-based distros use a Debian build hosted by either the Debian Foundation or the distro's supporting company (for example, Ubuntu's version of the .deb and the Ubuntu Backports project's .deb for Firefox are both hosted on their own respective servers).

Also, if you want an RPM build, you've got to get that yourself, unless things have changed since the last time I ran an RPM-based distro. I'm not sure about Autopackage's hosting, but it's probably on Mozilla's servers.

G

easy

[Prince Vegeta SSJ4]

estimate the percentage of windows boxes that have downloaded firefox, say X% multiply X% times the number of downloads X%*N, now here comes the tricky part. Estimate the % of types of windows boxes. This will tell you approximately how many times a user has installed due to crashes. in other words, lets say we get 60% * N. which would be 30,000,000 on windows. ok lets say 30% of those are Windows XP, it's pretty stable so lets say a factor of 1.8 (due to unpatched boxen, bootlegs, etc). so we get 9,00

Re:Downloads per user

[Finsterwald P Ogleth]

I think Asa had a blog entry on this...

The download counter only counts "foreign" browsers (like IE, or Opera), or Versions before 1.0.

If you download a new installer with a current (1.0 or >) version, it won't count.

There goes most of the theories about counts surmised above...

We're probably seeing a realistic download count for unique users for non-current versions...

FPO

Re:Downloads per user

[jayhawk88]

Versions too, I've downloaded at least 5 or 6 different versions.

Still very impressive however.

Re:Downloads per user

[AviLazar]

I've downloaded it about 20 times. Probably 5-8 unique computers. I keep a CD backup for emergency cases (i.e. a computer spyware laden that IE won't work), but for the most part I like getting people the latest/greatest.

Re:Downloads per user

[wdd1040]

I've deployed it on about 1500 PCs and only downloaded it 3 times.

I guess I make up for a lot.

Who's going to swim?

[elcid73]

Seems you need a swimmer now to cross some large body of water

Re:Who's going to swim?

[Eccles]

No, this is a community project. We all need to swim a lap. (Which, face it, is more exercise than most slashdotters get...)

Update: Opera

[ggvaidya]

According to the website [opera.com], Jon had to turn back. He was swimming with his PR manager who was in a raft, but after the raft sprung a leak Jon had to rescue him, sadly ending his Atlantic crossing in the meantime.

Quite a funny writeup, my favourite:
"As much as I don't want to talk behind a colleague's back, there is no doubt that we would never have let Eskil assist Jon in the raft had we known he can neither swim nor read maps," says an embarrassed Tor Odland, Opera's Communications Director.

Small nit to pick...

[pegr]

On four different machines sitting in front of me, the counter is off by about 500 between the lowest and the highest. \

While the counter is cute, I'd call it a bogometer. :)

Re:Small nit to pick...

[geeber]

I also like how the counter increments at constant regular intervals. Seems like firefox is being downloaded precisely once every second.

I would hardly seems like it could be the actual number in real time.

Re:Small nit to pick...

[pegr]

It's labeled "Actual Number" (implying that's a real download number).

Guess they got me on a technicality. That's an "actual number" alright!

Re:Small nit to pick...

[ArsonSmith]

Or just that it is actually a number. Last time I checked 50,000,000 is actually a real number in line between 49,999,999 and 50,000,001.

Re:Small nit to pick...

[br0ck]

Look at the js source, it increments each second, but it uses XMLHttpRequest to look up and correct to the actual value once per minute.

http://www.spreadfirefox.com/ffcounter.js [spreadfirefox.com]

Re:Small nit to pick...

[Anonymous Coward]

It's 2005 now, the term is AJAX!

Re:Small nit to pick...

[_xeno_]

If you look at the source [spreadfirefox.com], you'll see that it is actually pulling a real number from an RSS feed [spreadfirefox.com].

It then defaults to 2 downloads a second, incrementing the timer by that rate every second. When it grabs the feed again a minute later, it then uses the "real" rate of downloads from the first grab to the second grab and starts incrementing by that amount.

It then continues to do that for as long as the page is up.

So the number is real-ish.

Hey, it says "actual number"--so it has to be!

[Black Perl]

I just saw the counter go down. Cool, they're even counting "returns".

Actually, the javascript only updates once a minute, and when it does, it computes a new rate, so the increments you see are only estimates until the next update.

Re:Hey, it says "actual number"--so it has to be!

[Iamthefallen]

Yep, The JavaScript [spreadfirefox.com] grabs the numbers from a XML file [spreadfirefox.com] and does an estimate on the rate of downloads per minute. The XML file in turn is updated once a minute or so.

Not quite real time.

Re:Hey, it says "actual number"--so it has to be!

[nacturation]

I just saw the counter go down. Cool, they're even counting "returns".

This is from all those Microsoft employees who didn't agree with the EULA and returned the product for a refund.

Re:Small nit to pick...

[jellomizer]

It is not a real time it is kinda of a average thing. Probably

Re:Small nit to pick...

[Bronz]

Looking at the Javascript, it seems like the counter is designed to pull a "real" number every so often and then do a comparison from the last update to estimate the download rate. Essentially, the "odometer" you are seeing isn't real time, but it does attempt to syncronize every once in a while.

As for being off between machines -- the servers they are requesting data from might be returning different data. It's hard to say. Here's the XML link: http://www.spreadfirefox.com/feeds/downloads/fire f ox.xm [spreadfirefox.com]

Re:Small nit to pick...

[poningru]

perhaps its loading from your cache? no that cant be it. That makes too much sense

Swim...

[nacturation]

Does this mean Stallman will swim across the Atlantic 50 times?

Re:Swim...

[clem]

That would constitute a bath, so I'm afraid it's out of the question.

Re:Swim...

[Aeron65432]

He should do it. The less he can screw around with the GPL (making corporations pay, licensing documents that use GPL fonts) the better GNU/GPL is. ;D

Now

[jb.hl.com]

Swim that fucking ocean, bitch!

Erm, wrong browser. Whoops.

Hrm..

[nametaken]

God bless 'em... that is all.

I expected to hear this after the email update this morning. :)

To be fair....

[ActionJesus]

I have downloaded firefox like 30 times. Due to installs, re-installs, upgrades, downgrades, and just for the hell of it, it mounts up. Not to say this isnt an achievement... one of my progects is currently on about 50 downloads, after 3 years. But still, I'd like to see more concrete numbers than downloads. Gratz, ffox :)

Just remember

[computerme]

I have download it 3 times for the same machine.

(1.0. - 1.0.3)

I am sure others have done the same.

I got a cold splash in the face last week when i told my client they should be using firefox. They responed "what's firefox"

Its a little too early to break out the "IE is dead" champagne...

I hope it will happen someday but there is much more work to be done.

Re:Just remember

[ArsonSmith]

I make up for it with my 3 machines in front of me that have it but was downloaded with apt-get install firefox.

Re:Just remember

[rainman_bc]

AFAIK FF updates itself now... At least on Windowz.... FC gets its updates from YUM / up2date, so that shouldn't register either.

In fact, many distros include FF so that doesn't even count on the download numbers.

Firefox does not 'auto update'

[Yankel]

I've updated FireFox on my in-law's Window's box three times now. Each time, the 'upgrade' consisted of downloading the new install executable to the desktop and running it.

The new installation overwrites the old one, keeping your various settings (history, bookmarks, etc.) in tact.

It would be interesting to find out how many of those downloads were resulting from the upgrade prompt (red arrow). Hopefully, that's already been factored in.

Re:Just remember

[computerme]

i use OSX. i download it from versiontracker then just drag it to my applications folder...

Re:Just remember

[deinol]

I got a cold splash in the face last week when i told my client they should be using firefox. They responed "what's firefox"

You say that like they should have a clue. The same person probably would also ask "What's Internet Explorer?"

Re:Just remember

[computerme]

uh no. they were running ie and are not super newbies

Re:Just remember

[shaitand]

Right oh, and when you encounter this the best description of Firefox to give is that it is an IMPROVED Internet.

Re:Just remember

[El Cubano]

I have download it 3 times for the same machine.

And I have downloaded it 0 times (from mozilla.org, that is) for ~20 machines, thanks to the Debian archive and apt-proxy.

Re:Just remember

[Spy der Mann]

They responed "what's firefox"

You can say: "It's a 3rd party Internet Explorer. And virus-proof!"

Re:Just remember

[dabigpaybackski]

I hope it will happen someday but there is much more work to be done.

And much more advertising money to spend. They could even do TV ads that feature jokes about Firefox's obscurity vis-a-vis IE. I'm serious; the humor might get people's attention.

Here's another idea. Show an ad with a computer screen covered in popup ads, with an offscreen voice fairly sputtering with rage as a mouse pointer impotently clicks on one after another in an effort to clear the screen...

*click* *click* *clickclickclick*

Re:Just remember

[FidelCatsro]

I also know a fair few magazines in Germany that have had it on a cover-CD.
Not to mention a fair ammount of linux distros which have it / debian repositry versions which have been downloaded.
It kind of balances out in the long run , though the number is totaly up for debate as to real world users .

Re:Just remember

[un1xl0ser]

True, true.

I haven't downloaded Firefox from mozilla.org in a while. It gets updated via yum or apt on my systems.

So there are a lot more that should be counted. There is no way that these numbers could ever be massaged into a number of Firefox users.

Opera has 49 million or so to go to catch up.

[elcid73]

I can't wait for them to do it :)

Re:Opera has 49 million or so to go to catch up.

[PaxTech]

It's not over til the fat lady sings.

reloading

[pjrc]

or somebody on internet2 keeps clicking reload, for that next firefox update.

Good and bad.

[Future Man 3000]

It's good that a quality piece of open source software is getting the recognition it deserves, improving the experience of millions of users and increasing the likelihood of HTML-compatible webpages being developed and published.

It's bad that a quality piece of open source software is getting the recognition it deserves, because it will fall even faster than IE to surreptitious purveyors of spyware and virii taking advantage of the source to discover new ways to subvert our web browsers without our knowle

Re:Good and bad.

[ssj_195]

It's bad that a quality piece of open source software is getting the recognition it deserves, because it will fall even faster than IE to surreptitious purveyors of spyware and virii taking advantage of the source to discover new ways to subvert our web browsers without our knowledge.

Good - I say "bring it". Because whereas spyware developers have to spend *weeks* poring over the massive, already heavily-audited code-base looking for exploits, and then days to weeks tailoring a piece of code to exploit

Re:Good and bad.

[Changa_MC]

Then why is Apache (open source) the most secure and the most popular webserver?

Maybe (gasp) because OSS works!!!

Back off Billy, your sily jedi mind tricks have no effect on me.

Re:Good and bad.

[k0de]

There are other considerations. What will the turnaround be on creating and approving spyware fixes? Even once they are available will ff be able to complete with ie/windows update for pushing fixes? Or worse again will there be a dependence on users to install updates? Don't expect such diligence on the part of My Parents(tm). And how much damage will be done in the meantime?

There's the argument that ff hasn't seen the spyware pain that ie has, and may not be equipped to deal with the issues. M$ has th

Slightly Inflated?

[PocketPick]

The large amount of downloads are great, but how many of those downloads simply were the same users downloading updates: v1.0, v1.0.1, v1.0.2 and v1.0.3? I'd be interested in knowing how many of those downloads correspond to unique users. After all, that's really what is most important.

Re:Slightly Inflated?

[ArsonSmith]

Probably no where near the number of users that have it from their FC2 and FC3 disks or by apt-get install firefox or emerge firefox. I'd guess it is close to even.

Harder #s?

[Doc Ruby]

Who's got real webserver stats with % FireFox vs IE, Safari, Mozilla, Netscape et al?

Re:Harder #s?

[Jason Earl]

This is what OneStat [onestat.com] has to say.

Re:Harder #s?

[Doc Ruby]

1. Microsoft IE 86.63 %
2. Mozilla Firefox 8.69 %
3. Apple Safari 1.26 %
4. Netscape 1.08 %
5. Opera 1.03 %


Am I wrong to be surprised that straight Mozilla (not the FireFox edition) doesn't even register, while Opera does?

AMAZING

[dingDaShan]

I was wondering what the market share is compared to IE? I am finding that IE is used so much because it is convenient and not because people haven't heard of Firefox. Once I show somebody firefox and what it can do, they realize the error of their ways.

Does this include yesterday

[stoolpigeon]

Yesterday I ran the little 'check for updates now' deal and apparently there were some for firefox itself as it downloaded the whole installer, ran through the whole thing and reset my home page.

Do these downloads count? If so-- then every time there is an update you are really ramping up your numbers due to current users getting it.

Re:Does this include yesterday

[asa]

We're not counting downloads served by the Firefox update system. Neither are we counting the millions of downloads from download.com (they actually host Firefox as well) or from other download repositories. We're also not counting people who go directly to FTP without going through our "bouncer" tool (the app that directs you to the most appropriate mirror). There's lots we're not counting here. It's not meant to be a count of users. It's just a measure of how many people use our system to download Firefox.

- A

Re:Does this include yesterday

[jfengel]

The release notes claim that the latest (1.0.3) improves the update process. I'm not sure what that means, but I'm hoping it means that the next update will not be yet another complete download and reinstall (and yet another attempt to reset my home page in the process.)

Not that this affects the old numbers, but maybe it'll make new numbers slightly more accurate. Not that they're anything other than a terrible proxy for Firefox adoption in the first place, but they're the easiest ones to count.

Re:Does this include yesterday

[stoolpigeon]

that's good. thanks for the info.

The 50 millionth person

[truthsearch]

Shouldn't we send the person who did that download some flowers or balloons or something? Imagine being that guy, walking around town, "Yeah, that 50 millionth was me!" and everyone responding "Yeah, sure...". We should make it like the reward you get for being the 1,000th person to buy something in a new supermarket.

Re:The 50 millionth person

[asa]

Shouldn't we send the person who did that download some flowers or balloons or something?

Actually, we're rewarding the members of the Firefox community who helped that guy find Firefox. The big prize will go to the Spread Firefox affiliate who delivered the click that coincided with the 50 millionth download. http://www.spreadfirefox.com/fifty.html [spreadfirefox.com]

- A

Celebrate--giving their history....

[FerretFrottage]

I would have expected them to change the name after 50,000,000 downloads.

slashdotted already (article text)

[h4ter]

50,037,604
50,037,605
50,037,606
50,037,607
50,037,608
50,037,609
50,037,610
50,037,611
50,037,612
50,037,613
50,037,614

In Internet Explorer

[bobbis.u]

And it can't be a coincidence that the page doesn't display properly in Internet Explorer!!

Re:In Internet Explorer

[El Cubano]

And it can't be a coincidence that the page doesn't display properly in Internet Explorer!!

Look here. This Page Is Valid XHTML 1.0 Strict! [w3.org] No conspiracy theories around here. Valid HTML is difficult to get looking right in IE.

It Was Me!!

[devphaeton]

It was right around that time that i downloaded Firefox onto a customer's machine that i'm removing parasites from. :-D

Glad to be part of it.

where are the web log stats?

[amichalo]

I'd like to see stats from the major web properties like Google that show which browsers are hitting them.

I have firefox on three boxes (probably representing five downloads since I have upgraded once on two boxes).

I think the download number is a nice indicator, but downloads and usage are different animals and the latter seems more important in the long run.

At this rate they will reach it in 1.5 years

[digitaldc]

At this rate (about 2 downloads a second) they should reach 100,000,000 downloads by August 2006 or a little less than a year and a half from now.
Go go firefox!

"Real Time"

[shish]

Looking briefly round the source it isn't *exactly* real time; it loads the rss feed at http://www.spreadfirefox.com/download_counter.php? ff=1 [spreadfirefox.com] , parses it, then increments from there in javascript. The automatic increment interval seems to be based on the real interval, so they shouldn't get too far off.

We have identified this user ?

[thrill12]

Uh oh, Firefox has instantaneously tracked down the user that clicked for the 50th million download ?

Along with coin #1 in the series, we are also awarding a very special prize--the biggest we've ever given out--to the lucky SpreadFirefox affiliate who delivered the golden click that went with the 50 millionth download. We have identified this person and will withhold her information until she accepts the prize. Check back early next week!

I wonder how they did it...
---

Return-path: [e-mail]
Received: from catchthepirate.mpaa.com
Received: from mail.mpaa.com
Received: from some.isp.com

Subject: Firefox 50th million download

Hi, we are from spreadfirefox.com and have identified the 50th million firefox downloader as coming from ip UUU.XXX.YYY.ZZZ.
Please give us his/her name and address so we can contact him/her to give them this prize !

Thank you in advance,

Firefox team

Re:We have identified this user ?

[asa]

We're not celebrating the person who made the download. We're celebrating the community and the specific community member who helped deliver that new user to Firefox. See the affiliate program at SpreadFirefox.com http://www.spreadfirefox.com/ [spreadfirefox.com]

- A

Re:We have identified this user ?

[rogueuk]

they didn't identify the user, but the affiliate web site that directed the user to get firefox

What does it mean ?

[Jules Labrie]

There are millions of Linux users who download or get it from distributions. So the community is actually much greater. What's really important is:

1. The market share

2. The community's active participation into the project.

I don't see what it brings to say there is '50.000.000' downloads, this is just marketing for the average user.

Re:What does it mean ?

[asa]

Jules, a big point that you're missing is that this is a celebration for that community of active participants who have helped Firefox achieve these downloads. Are open source projects supposed to discourage their communities from celebrating milestones?

- A

"May it go on swiftly to 100,000,000!"

[TheoGB]

"May it go on swiftly to 100,000,000!"

Okay, I'll probably get modded out of the place for this but it's just a fucking browser, not the second coming. It doesn't give oral sex and it's not Half-Life fucking 2.

I've got it installed here and at work. I still end up using IE most of the time, to be honest. I only notice a difference when I'm trying to sort out my Stylesheets so they work on both browsers (and IE really needs to sort its shit out there).

Long may FireFox continue because IE's quality r

50,000,000... upgrades?

[Anonymous Custard]

Does 50,000,000 include the separate downloads of 1.0.1, 1.0.2, and 1.0.3?

Does anybody remember...

[HerculesMO]

That Opera did something memorable too recently...?

Oh well, can't matter much. Way to overshadow !!! :)

Wonder what other gecko browsers would bring it to

[Sark666]

Since going to Gnome, I've ended up using galeon.
It has proper session support, it has proper theme support, and it solved my flash slowdown issues with certain sites that I've always had in FF.
I initially read that that was a gtk2 bug, but later read it was due to an XUL overhead issue.

The other gnome browser, epiphany, is also an option and the default gnome, I just found galeon more feature complete instead of the minimalist approach of epiphany.

Anyway, it's all gecko with just different packaging. And there's also that Kmelon one on the windows side. So I wonder what that would bring the downloads with considering all gecko browsers. Obviously pretty hard to keep track of in linux when one rarely downloads from the actual site.

Meanwhile, at Opera...

[ReadParse]

... CEO Jon S. von Tetzchne continues to prepare to drown a ridiculous and cold death in the north Atlantic Ocean.

RP

Re:It's Good to be the King

[ksaville00]

Does anyone actually know how many visits slashdot gives a site that is on posted on the front page? any guesses?

Re:It's Good to be the King

[maotx]

Does anyone actually know how many visits slashdot gives a site that is on posted on the front page? any guesses?

The guy who did the Christmas and Haloween lights prank did a rather nice analysis [komar.org] on the incoming bandwidth from Slashdot and other media sites.

Pasted below is Slashdot's statistics:

5 min: 781
10 min: 1,604
1 hour: 11,699
2 hours: 21,651
4 hours: 35,895
8 hours: 53,720
24 hours: 90,607
2 days: 94,830
week: 98,054
month: 117,210

Take it with a grain of salt though...the analysis might be another hoax ;)

Re:It's Good to be the King

[flokemon]

Sadly, Opera's CEO's swim across the Atlantic ended early.

http://opera.com/swim/ [opera.com]

Re:That counter looks faked to me.

[Hank Chinaski]

just take a look at the source code and you will see that i caches stuff etc: http://www.infocraft.com/projects/ffcounter/ [infocraft.com]

Re:Are all versions of Firefox included?

[asa]

If your download went through the URLs listed in these links, and you're not talking about using Firefox's built-in update service, then your download was probably counted. http://www.mozilla.org/products/firefox/all.html [mozilla.org]

If your download did not go through one of those links, then you aren't counted.

- A

Re:Are all versions of Firefox included?

[asa]

I should add a minor correction, that page lists the current version, so if you got 1.0, 1.0.1, or 1.0.2 from similar links, you'll also be counted. All those links go through our mirror tool that distributes load across our dozens of mirrors. We're not counting downloads that don't go through that tool.

- A

Re:Actual number ... yeah ... right.

[blakeross]

The counter syncs with the "actual number" every 60 seconds, which means it will never be more than a couple hundred downloads off at any given time, and in fact it's usually very accurate once it's been running for a minute. Surely you don't expect us to poll our servers every tenth of a second, right?

Given the inherent margin of error with the "ACTUAL actual number," and the fact that we're dealing with a number as high as 50 million downloads and a delta as low as about 200, our consciences are quite cl