Comment Re:Make that 50 years or longer (Score 1) 60
He just seems to consistently and vastly underestimate the difficulty of engineering these things. He seems to have thought that Starship was just a case of making a bigger rocket, a few years tops, and then unlimited tankers to orbit so Mars is "easy".
AI is another massive blind spot for him. The original 6 months for full self driving seems to have been based on a misunderstanding of how AI works and how difficult image recognition it. Many of the fatalities caused by Tesla Autopilot are due to it simply not seeing a massive obstacle in the road until it is a fraction of a second away from slamming into it at 130 KPH. Turns out radar is a good idea after all, because it's a failsafe for vision - a fundamentally different mode of operation, covering areas where vision fails. I can imagine him thinking that removing radar would "focus minds" in the vision team, as if that's the reason why it was killing people.