It is plausible we're in a bubble. And there's some evidence for it. That companies can just add the words "AI" to something to get investment is a serious sign. But the revenue situation, while weird, is not by itself definitive. Anthropic even made a profit in Q2 this year https://aitoolsrecap.com/Blog/anthropic-first-profit-2026-revenue-breakdown . Now, there's enough weird accounting going on, and circularity within the various companies, that interpreting that as a definite, genuine profit is something I'd be hesitant to do, but from all the public information it does look genuine.

There are two, related issues. First, if a "bubble" keeps going on for long enough, it stops being a bubble because society just reorganizes around it. For example, there's a decent argument that the industry was in a bubble since the 1930s (or even earlier) but that we reorganized cities and infrastructure to support it. And then when there was finally, almost a hundred years later, a danger that that bubble was going to pop, as it really had deserved to decades before, we had the auto-bailtouts (which were not just in the US, but also included the UK, Russia, France, Germany, Italy and others). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932010_automotive_industry_crisis. There's a related saying which generally comes up in the context of people thinking of short-selling: "Markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent." Second, even when a bubble does burst, the tech itself may still grow or be highly useful. When the train bubble burst in 1873, it was devastating, but by most major metrics of the industry (amount of track laid down, number of stations, estimated number of people-miles traveled per year) numbers barely dipped or kept going up. Similarly, when the dot-com bubble burst some specific things did get really damaged (with some early fiber optic being just abandoned) but by and large, the internet continued to grow to the point where it ended up more ubiquitous than even boosters in the late 1990s would have predicted. So a bubble bursting doesn't mean that LLM based AI is goes away.

n general, when there's an optimization process involved where one is minimizing stress or something else, hexagons often show up. In fact, hexagons are more often in nature than square patterns. One nice example is Giant's Causeway which has large hexagonal basalt columns https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant's_Causeway (although a few columns have seven or eight sides). But neat to see another example, on another world no less. (We have on big hexagon on Saturn already.)

Some years ago, there was a website that was dedicated to images of "Gatso" speed cameras around Birmingham, UK being burned out using the "necktie" approach: A tire was hung on the camera, petrol [gasoline] was added and set alight.

This seems like essentially a variant of the Waluigi effect hypothesized here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-post which had the advantage of a pretty fun name for the situation, and is worth reading. . There's also some related prior work by Ball, Gluch, Goldwasser, Kreuter, Reingold, and Rothblum https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07341 which suggested that fundamental information issues or computational complexity issues meant that making an LLM AI "safe" from jailbreaks by having a less computationally powerful/less intelligent AI system look over its input would always fail, since one could construct inputs that would be complicated tasks or essentially hidden puzzles that the less powerful AI would fail at but would expand out by the more powerful AI into instructions/jailbreaks. Ball et. al's work is also discussed in detail in this Quanta piece https://www.quantamagazine.org/cryptographers-show-that-ai-protections-will-always-have-holes-20251210/ There's also some similar work by Rao, Choudhury, and Aditya https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.12702 which I haven't read in detail but seems also thematically very similar.

Then by all means, please explain what you think I'm missing.

It isn't "Gospel" but given the highly detailed timeline, and given that Hugging Face has said explicitly that after OpenAI cooperated with them they are confident that's what happened, it looks like the most likely hypothesis. Alternatives involve OpenAI hacking into multiple other companies in a highly illegal way for extremely unclear gains. And again, Hugging has more details than anyone else, and they are confident that that that happened.

Whether you call it thinking or merely prompting is besides the point. The AI was "prompted" if you prefer to accomplish a specific task, performing well on a benchmark. It then responded by escaping a sandbox and hacking Hugging Face. Whether you label it as thinking or merely responding to a prompt, it should still be alarming, in that highly unexpected and genuinely dangerous behavior can occur simply due to being prompted to accomplish a goal. This is exactly the point that people like Yudkowsky and Bostrom were making years ago before any of the LLMs, and people dismissed it as groundless, and said that AIs would not do things like that. Turns out, empirically, they do.

HuggingFace gave an extremely detailed account of what happened https://huggingface.co/blog/agent-intrusion-technical-timeline. Does reading that look to you like mere OpenAI hype?