MMOGChart Update 21 Now Available 89
SirBruce wrote to mention that the 21st update to MMOGChart.com is now available. From the site: "This version has updated subscriber numbers for several games, most notably World of Warcraft, several of SOE's titles, and the recently launched Auto Assault. I've also expanded the mid-range chart a bit; eventually I'm going to have to implement a dynamic graphing system." The most dramatic information can be seen on the mid-range chart. The cyan, triangled line that represents Everquest made my jaw drop.
my fave (Score:3, Funny)
No updates for Lineage games? (Score:2)
Re:No updates for Lineage games? (Score:2)
Re:No updates for Lineage games? (Score:4, Informative)
Bruce
Re:I didn't know WoW was so big (Score:1, Informative)
If grind addiction really did exist, Galaxies would still be huge
general subscription? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:general subscription? (Score:1)
For example, fee ranges differing based on how many games you want access to...
One character slot per game to dispel the profit loss from offering a cheaper subscription, with one-time fees for extra character slots...
Still, I wouldn't subscribe to it anyway because I hate the idea of having to pay to play something I already paid for. GW all the way for me.
Re:general subscription? (Score:2)
So say you've got WoW, EverQuest, and whatever
Re:general subscription? (Score:2)
Inc mechanics that encourage even more idling and timesinks for great profit
Re:general subscription? (Score:1)
Re:general subscription? (Score:2, Informative)
But to be honest, the way these games are designed I'd rather pay $15 a month to play one exclusively as opposed to paying $25 for access to one game I'll play a lot and five games I may never log into. I don't have the time and/or energy to devote to half a dozen MMOs.
Re:general subscription? (Score:3, Funny)
But then how would the publishers of each game be able to brag about how many subscribers they have?
More to the point, what numbers would they be able to bring to advertisers to show them how many players their products will be exposed to?
And even more importantly, without hard numbers for each individual game, how will the message-board weenies ever be able to measure the size of their enis by the games they play? You're talking about a total meltdown of the entire social structure of the Internet her
Re:general subscription? (Score:2)
I want some of what you're smoking.
On the other hand, Sony DOES have a combo subscription. http://pc.gamespy.com/articles/711/711477p1.html [gamespy.com] I don't link directly to sony because I can't get the info to come up on firefox here from their station site. And I'm too lazy to tab over to my vmware and look it all up in there.
Re:general subscription? (Score:1)
That noted, you're never going to see a general subscription for all MMOGs. Ever. Period. While a very large outfit like SOE might be able to use the activity of one or two titles to subsidize other games with flagging user bases, a publisher like Funcom woul
Re:general subscription? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Ignore It (Score:3, Insightful)
Despite the nature of the troll, there actually is a point here. Giving SirBruce the benefit of the doubt about the numbers, there's the question of, well, what exactly does the subscription metric tell you? It tells you something, but certainly not turnover rate, average satisfaction, profits, the number of "deadbeat" accounts, etc. Everytime I
Re:Ignore It (Score:1)
So grats to Sir Bruce for focussing on what makes the world go round.
-Jeff
Re:Ignore It (Score:2)
That's nice, but he's measuring number of subscriptions worldwide, not money. People in different countries pay different amounts of money for their subscriptions, which are weighted equally on Sir Bruce's site. Different MMOs charge different amounts of money -- again, weighted equally on Sir Bruce's site. As a business
It's even worse than that (Score:2)
A lot of numbers are just wild guesses. For example SOE brags something like "SWG is the third biggest multiplayer game!", but not by what criterion or how it's counted or anything... and the guy then goes and guesses a number between that of game number 2 and game number 4 in the charts. (Or rather between number 2 and what would have been number 3 if we go by known figures or if Sony is lying.)
Frankly, I fail to see any point in charting something that's a collection of wild gues
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:2)
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:5, Informative)
>It's even worse than that.
It may be worse than that, but not for most of the reasons you gave.
>A lot of numbers are just wild guesses.
No, they aren't. The only "guesses" on the chart are the latest data points for SWG and DAoC, and those are based upons sourced statements from others that put the number within a known to be correct range. That leaves 99% of the rest of the data on the chart to be non-guesses.
>For example SOE brags something like "SWG is the third biggest multiplayer game!", but not by
>what criterion or how it's counted or anything... and the guy then goes and guesses a number
>between that of game number 2 and game number 4 in the charts. (Or rather between number 2 and
>what would have been number 3 if we go by known figures or if Sony is lying.)
Subsequent conversations with Smedley explained by what criterion and how it was counted. So you're just flat wrong here.
>Frankly, I fail to see any point in charting something that's a collection of wild guesses,
I do too. Luckily, I don't do that... I chart real data points, with a couple of informed guesses, and no wild ones.
>and with the accuracy of being somewhere between 175,000 and 250,000. When you imagine that
>guesswork margin around the graph, it could have pretty much any shape whatsoever. Allowing
>for that huge margin of error, it could have actually gained players in the NGE. (Yeah, I know
>it didn't, but the margin of error is high enough to allow even that. Just shows how utterly
>useless that graph is.)
That doesn't make it useless at all. Did you even continue reading the analysis? Because I had an inside source providng me a related number for the same month that I could use to determine with some accuracy the total number of subscribers. Yes, you still wind up with a large margin of error, but enough to have high confidence it didn't actually gain players.
>Add the fact that you have no clue what Sony measured there (or _if_ it measured anything.)
>Was it number of players? Number of accounts? Number of sold boxes? Simultaneous connections? >What? Did they include every single Station Access account, even if it doesn't actually play
>SWG? Was that claim made during at the apex of some "try the game free for 7 days" campaign
>and including the free accounts? Or what? Basically what's the point of graphing something if
>you don't even know what that number means or how it was measured?
It was none of the above. It was total active subscribers, which includes those people currently able to play the game via station pass (but not all of them), as well as those currently on free time. Which is basically how almost every other data point on the charts is calculated. (Some choose not to count their currently active free accounts. Typically, this is never more than 10% of the total subscription base, so it's not a big issue. This is also discussed in the analysis.)
>And that's a general problem, not just a Sony one. Some games track players. (E.g., WoW counts
>you only once even if you have multiple accounts.)
Who told you this? Because it's not true. WoW, or any other MMOG developer, has NO WAY of linking an account to a specific player. They might know what name you put on it, and they know the name on the credit card that's attached to it. That's it.
>Some track accounts. Some include every
>single PC in an internet cafe in Korea, whether anyone actually plays the game on it or not.
>(Internet cafe owners have to license each game for each PC, which for some games it's half
>the revenue.) Etc.
None of the games I tracked include "every singled PC in an internet cafe in Korea", so your objections here are irrelevant. Again, what is tracked is current active subscribers. In a few cases where the data providing is a similar but somewhat diffe
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:2)
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:2)
>unconvinced.
Nothing personal on my end, either, but you kept saying things that just weren't true. So maybe you did read the analysis and I just didn't communicate them effectively enough.
>I'm sorry, but that's just looks funny to me. So 120,000 monthly paying accounts, plus 50,000
>_total_ Station Access accounts (most of which have no interest in SWG in any form or shape)...
>leads you to a guess of 190
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:2)
A) That's now what I've seen for sale on Amazon, but nevertheless,
B) It would somehow doesn't add up with the next point:
Re:It's even worse than that (Score:2)
>B) It would somehow doesn't add up with the next point:
My point wasn't that they didn't exist; they still do, I believe. But also that, if you haven't seen them, you can still buy SWG time throught the generic card.
>A) I don't know, if I got such a generic SOE card, SWG would be the last place I'd think of
>using it. Between EQ, EQ2, and a few others, it's not like it _must_ be used for SWG, if it's
>that universal.
>
>B)
FYI, about cancelling the Station Access (Score:2)
Heh. Well, I had already done it at one point, so I already _knew_ it would cancel the whole Station Access subscription, but I thought I'd try it again just to be sure. Yep, it cancelled my subscription to all SOE games in one fell swoop.
So, yes, I know what I'm talking about. Once a game has been ac
Woefully incomplete (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Woefully incomplete (Score:3, Informative)
Bruce
Re:Woefully incomplete (Score:2)
Bullshit. They were announcing subscriber numbers every four months or so up until Chains of Promathia shipped, while they were at the top of SirBruce's chart. Then WoW comes out. And they completely stopped posting figures.
From the census itself [playonline.com]:
Square-Enix is a company. They want to make their games look popular to sell more accounts. FFXI
Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:3, Insightful)
Not every good MMORPG requires a fee to play, but it looks like even if you create an immensely popular game, unless you're bending your customers over and asking them to take it in the ass every month to the tune of $14.95, you don't get listed.
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:1)
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:2)
Then why is Second Life on there?
-Eric
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:4, Informative)
Bruce
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:1)
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:2)
By their own definition they don't qualify for this chart. Moreover, this is in the MMOGChart.com FAQ: "Guild Wars developers say in their own FAQ that they do not consider their game a MMOG"
Also, MMOGChart.com explains that they do have trouble tracking subscription-free games based on their current metrics, so even if the Guild Wars developers called their game an MMORPG, it probably wou
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:2)
And Second Life is?
-Eric
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:2)
Bruce
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:3, Informative)
1. Why isn't [MMOG_NAME] listed?
There are four main reasons why a particular game isn't listed in the charts:
a) The game in question isn't really a MMOG, at least by my reckoning. Games like Diablo II and Phantasy Star Online fall into this category. Guild Wars developers say in their own FAQ that they do not consider their game a MMOG; in additi
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:2)
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:3, Funny)
Do you really need to ask? (Score:2)
If someone starts a chart with active players or something then Guild Wars has a place.
It ain't just GW wich ain't listed, none of the free muds is either.
Oh and there is a very simple reason GW doesn't have a monthly fee, because they don't have nearly the same infrastructure costs as say a WoW. When Guild Wars starts offering the same MMO lev
Re:Why is Guild Wars not listed? (Score:3, Informative)
Copies sold is not active players (Score:2)
In addition to the good reasons provided by others, you should note that "copies sold" does not equal "active players" in some timeframe. The chart is showing active players. That's why the lines eventually peak and head *downwards*. Obviously, if sales were tracked the lines would only plateau.
WoW "Crash" (Score:2)
I think with the summer coming, and most classes having had their 'reviews' people are leaving since they see nothing new on the horizon. Even though the next patch is the 'pvp patch', Blizzard has stated that they won't be changing the horrid honor system until the expansion. I think when the next one of these comes
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:3, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:1)
Nonetheless, I do see a decline in new subscribers for WoW. I hope that they're diligently working on a sequel, and not just on the expansion scheduled for later this year.
Personally, if I had time for more than one MMO, I probably would have switched already. As it is, I've invested so much time building a decent character in WoW that I don't want to lose it
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:1, Interesting)
It'd also be interesting to see how the numbers look like broken down to just 'people who are capable of speaking English'. No offense to the rest of the world, but comparing a game like EverQuest (virtually every
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:2)
But for many, wow is the first mmorpg they have played. They won't need to go to another mmorpg, they may leave for a fps, rts, etc.
it wouldn't show up as more than a blip on a game like WoW where a significant portion, if not the majority of the subscription comes outside of North America/Europe.
Are there solid numbers for the subscribers outside of the anglosphere?
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:2)
Bruce
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:1)
http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2157091/china-w
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:2)
Bruce
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:1)
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:2)
Noone stays for ever (Score:2)
This is reflected in two major falsehoods that get posted again and again:
1. "If I got tired of a game after 6 months, it's a sign that the game now sucks and deserves to be shut down."
2. "If people I know left after 6 months, it's a sign that the game is dying."
In reality, 6 months is (or was in the EQ days) the average time a player stays on a MMO. Sure, it depends on the player a
Re:WoW "Crash" (Score:1)
I play on two (Lightbringer and Malfurion) and I'm seeing new players constantly. Only reason I can tell is because they have no clue how some of the basics work (asking guards, rolling on loot, participating in groups, etc.)
I am seeing large guilds recruiting, but I think that's just typical attrition or some "old timers" have moved on or are hibernating until the next patch or expansion.
Visible activity (like in Ironforge) nearly doubled on Lightbringer after the last patch.
Content scales with subscribership? (Score:5, Interesting)
Although one of the problems with making such a comparison is that subscribers in different countries add up to vastly different subscribership plans and fees. Speaking of, though I've heard it's hard to get a hold of the numbers, I'd be very interested in seeing the average money per capita made off players broken down by pricing region. I'd also imagine there's a significant amount of overhead involved in expanding your business internationally. Hrrm.
Unfortunately, it doesn't really scale (Score:2)
A game like COH/COV, which is at the trailing end of the market, has provided 6 major free content additions so far. "Issue 1" was the game as released and 2 to 7 (7 is the current) have added new zones, (at one point) new classes, new outfit pieces, new quests, new power sets, new kinds of conetent like arch-villains and giant monsters, etc. Pretty much half the game at this point, and a lot more than half the quests, are new stuff. It also includes _
EVE (Score:3, Interesting)
What about RF Online ? (Score:1)
I know that it topped Lineage in Korea last year for a while. Even if it has then probably subsided, it is has now servers in :
_Korea
_Taiwan
_Japan
_Philippines
_China
_US/Europe
Re:What about RF Online ? (Score:1)
I know a hell of a lot of players (myself included) left due to the totally unbalanced race numbers on certain servers.
Jaw dropping? (Score:2)
Actually, when you sum the users from EQ and EQ2, you get a drop that isn't quite as steep. EQ definitely suffers from competing with its own sequel in addition to other new games.
Topping out? (Score:2)
Obviously they need to get that expansion out fast or it's all over but the crying for them.
Looks like SOE is taking a beating (Score:4, Insightful)
That SWG NGE lost slightly less then half its subscribers is not that amazing. Even those who like the NGE have to admit that it added a whole new bug fest to an already bugged game. It would be like getting you broken fiat replaced by a lada.
What is intresting is how poorly Everquest 2 is doing. I played it for a bit after escaping from SWG (WoW does not appeal to me neither does Eve so don't bug me about those) and it too seems to have been smedleyed. Before I left EQ2 they removed spirit shards taking a lot of the fun out of the game and increased your running speed so you looked like a characters out of a slapstick movie.
At least it is nice to see I am not the only one who thinks sony is ruining the games. Perhaps once they loose them all they will realize that it is pointless trying to emulate Blizzard by making all their games easy, shallow WoW wannabees. Not that their is anything wrong with WoW by itself. Just that it is a product that already exists.
Or maybe this is just the way live works. SOE once was one of the big MMO companies and then they just lost it. Sierra, Lucasarts, Microprose and countless others have gone before them. You really have to wonder how a company that once got MMO's so right its product was likened to crack now can't keep keep a single product from loosing subscribers.
Let's see, 100.000 lost SWG subscribers. That is 1.5 million dollars of lost revenue a month. Was the NGE worth that? Same with EQ2, removing spirit shards and other easing of the game lost them well of 150.000 subscribers. 2 million dollars a month down the drain. You got to wonder about Sony's management that Smedley is still allowed on the premises without being carved up into sushi.
Oh well, blame piracy, oh wait, mmo's don't have piracy. Guess the only excuse is that Sony this time is itself to blame.
Re:Looks like SOE is taking a beating (Score:2)
Oh, is _that_ why they look so retarded? I play it now and again, but when I started, the fact people looked like hyperactive monkeys really turned me off. You get used to it eventually, but I was wondering how that could have slipped everyone's notice, that their character modeling looked totally goofy. It being a half-assed patch p
Actually, it's more than that (Score:2)
Re:Looks like SOE is taking a beating (Score:3, Insightful)
In the end, this is only common sense. Even if the idea of a dumbed down SWG appealed to me more than the complicated one which didn't appeal to me enough to actually make me buy the game (played the free trial, and uninstall
Re:Looks like SOE is taking a beating (Score:1)
Re:Looks like SOE is taking a beating (Score:1)
I think this chart says it all... (Score:1)
It sure is my favorite MMORPG.
This chart makes the rest look like a joke its so out of whack.
Re:I think this chart says it all... (Score:1)
I hadn't heard about the MMO "All Others" but 3.3% can't be wrong. It's pulling in more subscribers than Everquest and Everquest II COMBINED! I might have to try it out!
Re:Accuracy change for Everquest (Score:2)
Bruce
Re:Accuracy change for Everquest (Score:2)
I think a lot of it is summer time = go outside time, winter time = snowed in, play games time
I call BS. If D&DO has 90,000 subscribers (Score:2)
US population numbers are pitiful. Traffic on non-official boards is stagnant at best, and negative comments abound.
Lineage (Score:2)
Re:Lineage (Score:3, Informative)
Asheron's Call accuracy (Score:1)
percentage wise those are very different numbers. The health of the game would be very different in each case.