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Comment Re:Same Altman: Snake Oil Salesman (Score 1) 115

Sam Altman has claimed a lot of outlandish things, but he's never said AI would solve all the world's problems, take us to the stars, stop world hunger, fix our governments, or save the planet. YOU made all that stuff up.

"We are close to creating the genie that can grant any wish." ~Sam Altman

Comment Re:Totally unbiased statement (Score 2) 115

If you haven't used AI in a meaningful way in the past, oh, 6 months, you should rightfully consider your opinion invalid on this topic. I know it's popular, particular with "real programmers" to make these hubristic statements, but there's no truth in it. It's usually those most heavily steeped in the old ways of doing things who have the hardest time with new things.

The same was true 6 months ago. The field has changed a lot, with breakthrough changes almost daily - so much so that just keeping track of everything released is an exercise in and of itself, nevermind testing it. I have hardware set aside just to do that, and there's often a 2-3 day queue.

Having used AI for years the best compliment I can give is at least the latest GLM-5 models are useful enough to find bugs. It often takes a day to process and the vast majority of the output is either wrong or incoherent gibberish but at least it still works. This talk of daily breakthroughs has not been my experience. Have franken models from 2023 I still use to this day. This wouldn't be the case if it were all breakthroughs every day.

Throughout that time it has been a similar level of limitations and nonsense. The primary difference I see today stems from focus on post training CoT behaviors after the pretraining well had mostly run dry.

Would you consider a facility producing clean water and power (like a nuclear desalination facility) to be "snake oil"? You know: things which are in high demand and improve the lives of many. No, AI isn't clean water or power (and it does use those things). But it is akin to a revolutionary change, like the steam engine, or the Sterling engine, which completely changed the face of industry in a very short period of time.

Personally, I do hold it against people if they're not significantly using AI at this point. It's a self-enforced personal limitation in capabilities.

Personally, I just wish AI users didn't themselves sound like AI (or Sam Altman).

You still have to work, but it's hard to argue against the economics of it: a single developer can 10x output with ease,

I don't understand the 10x output assertions. If anything even remotely like it were true it would be noticed in worker productivity data. This simply isn't happening. One would be hard pressed to find any signal that diverged substantively from the framing trendline.

and the quality is significantly better than most developers can produce.

So now AI is better than most developers?

It speeds architectural design significantly and improves associated outcomes, even when you know what you're doing. It helps identify faults.

Maybe if you run a code mill or do a lot of rote boilerplate work AI could automate churning out code. More likely all this is doing in the end is creating suboptimal paths of least resistance you will pay for later in the product lifecycle.

I've yet to face a situation where rate of "output" itself was a significant factor in the overall effort. While sometimes I wish my fingers could move faster yet the underlying constraint is human thought to design/organize systems.

Even outside the domain of programming it's a game changer in many ways,

While LLMs are indeed useful it doesn't excuse the peddling of hyperbolic nonsense.

though we're just now only starting to get to the point where those capabilities can be realized.

This has been a constant fixture of the last few years... this constant drip of amazing new model with amazing new capabilities time and time and time and time and time again... so amazing it changes everything. So amazing it has to be regulated and kept from public view for fear of triggering human extinction. We have all listened to this same tired crap repeatedly for several years now. All of these amazing just now unlocked capabilities that just today are changing everything for real this time.

Comment Check Again. (Score 1) 63

It's not gambling if you rig the game and eliminate chance.

Correct. That's called fraud.

Congressional Insider Trading (a.k.a. Pelosis Law) become the golden standard of ethics by which our highest Representation of government decided to staunchly defend instead of vehemently denounce.

That's not fraud. That's a fucking job perk now.

Comment Re: we’re probably gonna bust past 1.8C (Score 1) 155

It's not that they were more tangible it's that you couldn't buy your way out of them. When the nukes hit they were going to hit for everybody and they were going to fuck up everything. If you are pretty well off financially you can continue to ignore the effects of climate change pretty much forever. As things get worse you're going to have to be even more well off but everyone convinces themselves they're going to be rich someday.

Comment The difference is nuclear annihilation (Score 1) 155

Would have hurt Reagan and Gorbachev and the rest of the Epstein class.

The climate apocalypse doesn't hurt them at all. They will still be temperate zones with fresh water for them and they will have private armies staffed with drones to protect them from the rabble.

Adam Smith's capitalism required the capitalists to be living in the same community and society as the working class. So that the working class could beat the living shit out of them if they got out of hand. This was part of Smith's writings. He did not expect to see a world where they could live half a world away from the shit they owned and have automated killbots murder anyone who inconvenience to them. Karl Marx saw that coming, the globalism and international oppression anyway not to killbots, but he had no fucking idea what to do about it and if you actually read his solutions they boil down to "I don't know kill the fuckers"

That sounds great but every time it's been tried the violence gets out of hand and you horseshoe back to fascism after putting psychopaths that are good at violence in charge.

I honestly don't see a path forward. People are too big of it too stupid too greedy and there are too many social problems we aren't willing to address for too many stupid reasons.

Comment Re:A MOLD? with spores? (Score 1) 78

Plenty of people want to go back in time! It's whatever the fashion is at the time; often throwbacks happen. Somebody with money who is clever could make it FASHIONABLE and people would go for it. Industry engineers people's behaviors plenty because most of us are just sheep. Proof of how gullible is right there in the USA's 2024 election. Look at how those rubes were all about going back to make America great AGAIN; just like fascist Italy also campaigned for.

Problem is the OIL lobby's plastics council will do a huge push against anything that significantly reduces plastic waste. Companies thinking price increases on packaging whine but they are always trying to increase pricing as much as they can get away with ... for their profit... but to manage an overhead increase-- they scream "it's impossible" they don't want to do that because it gains them nothing and they certainly can manage to overhead increase. (also not as bad as inflation is today; or the new owners wanting to profit from their new take over.)

Comment Re:bend over or be labeled a racist (Score 1, Interesting) 198

Cancel culture's home has always been conservatism. So now some authoritarian freaks on the left want to do the same and the internet gives every freak a megaphone.

STOP FEEDING THE TROLLS. Ignore them all unless it's actively directly doing something bad.

Good work is good; if you can code, I don't care if you are a pedophile. code is code. I do care if you are let out in public but if you can do something good from within your cage, then I'm all for it. You can even make some money and live a good life. minus children and since you are sick in the head, that is a life sentence until we can cure you (and we can't.)

Racists are like flat earthers. Just don't let them decide anything where their beliefs come into play and realize they have a huge gap in their critical thinking which might extend to other areas. Possibly not smart enough to survive AI/robotics in the future...and naturally they will default to blaming others but maybe they will realize AI ate their job? and.. capital owns AI so you might need to team up with these sods to fight the robot army's owners stealing wages from everybody. but will they realize their retirement fund etc. is the fueling the whole problem so it's indirectly a problem we all contribute to.

Comment Depends on who you are I guess (Score 5, Insightful) 155

If you're a billionaire or a trillionaire the outcomes are great. You can use the infighting over increasingly scarce water and resources to cement your control over society and you can live in the few remaining temperate zones with plenty of fresh water for yourself.

I mean yeah everyone else is fucked but we're all going to be billionaires right? We're just temporarily inconvenienced... And I'm sure Elon Musk thinks of you and me as his buddies. We will be joining him on Mars

Comment Re:Does this affect CERN and only CERN? (Score 1) 47

I do wonder what the Venn Diagram is of people who are running CPUs and systems which are older than 18 years but equally need to run the absolute latest OS version.

I hope normal distros don't start pulling this shit. Have an Atom server circa 2009 that won't even boot if this sort of crap started happening. It's not like you can elect not to update because they stop updating older versions.

Also have a laptop of the same vintage I use regularly... perfectly good hardware even by today's standards. Completely unnecessary, wasteful and pointless in the current environment with absurd hardware pricing. There is no reason they can't just use dispatching to exploit new features as has always been the case.

Comment It's been 4 years! Where's the entrepreneurship?? (Score 5, Interesting) 115

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said AI adoption is "non-negotiable" for countries, comparing rejecting it to refusing electricity a century ago and predicting it will unleash an unprecedented boom in entrepreneurship.

You've been out for 4 years! Where is all the entrepreneurship? Where are all the startups leveraging AI to take over existing non-AI industries? There were several major startups revolutionizing non-computing segments of the business world 4 years after the introduction of commercial internet (1999)...as well as the iPhone (2011). All I hear about are pick and shovel vendors making money off FOMO. Every business who invests in AI is unsure if it's saving them money.

To date, I can say AI has accomplished the following:

1. Given AI-is-my-religion zealots a cool toy to play with and dream about a future whenever this shit starts actually working
2. Made money for a half dozen players in a circular economy ponzi scheme
3. Been used to AI-wash layoffs without any evidence and suppress wages, masking big tech's challenges with rising interest rates.
4. Made the cost of devices we want and actually use skyrocket.

AI has made the future pretty bleak, personally. It doesn't work and is causing a RAMpocalypse...and if it ever actually does, it will cause a white-collar-jobpocalypse and massive social unrest. However, don't take my word for it.

After 4 years, Steve Jobs didn't have to go on press tours to convince people of the utility of an iPhone. No one had to sell the internet as a useful thing in 1999. The fact that Sam Altman has to sell his ware so hard shows even he's not confident about his product. We've all used ChatGPT Sam...We know what it is. We weren't impressed enough to pay for your massive investment to build it.

Comment They're gonna directly quote a white supremacist (Score 1) 199

Aside from the issues with platforming their advertisers don't want to see that stuff next to their advertisements. Not the raw stuff. You've got the internet and you have Google you can easily find that information yourself.

Also your reading comprehension needs work. Your concern isn't with the unnamed blogger your concern is with David Heinemeier Hansson and whether or not the things he said support what the unnamed blogger is accusing him of. You don't want more quotes from the unnamed blogger you want quotes from Mr Hansson.

It takes 2 seconds to Google the phrase " David Heinemeier Hansson ethnic cleansing accusations". Plenty of sources at that point and plenty of direct quotes if you care to be bothered. Or is your Google broken again? For some reason every time I run across somebody backing right wingers their Google is always broken... Oh here is the point where you pretend to not be backing the right winger.

Comment Re:Looking forward to this (Score 1) 246

i said safer, not bullet proof! Even a lead/acid battery is dangerous if you do stupid things!!

What you said is flat wrong. Sodium is NOT safer than LFP used in nearly all present day power stations and residential ESS. It is not the same as cell phone batteries as you asserted.

Comment Re:Split phase power (Score 1) 246

The companies selling these products like to imply that you will be able to power your whole house with their systems. Guess what, they can't. Because most US panels use split phase to break the 240V incoming into 120V circuits, you only get your plug-in solar feeding half the breakers in your panel. Now, in order to do plug-in solar properly, you should have a dedicated plug for the inverter. While you have the electrician there, have them arrange the breakers on your panel so your large draws (AC, washing machine, etc) are on the same leg as your dedicated solar plug.

A solar system does not produce 240V.
It produces 24V or 48V. Of course you could wire it to make 96V ...
However: DC has some issues ... so no one in his sane mind would have a 96V or higher voltage system.

Solar panels output DC and are typically run in series strings of hundreds of volts. Most PV panels are rated for series voltages of at least 1000V although residential systems tend to max out at under half that. For balcony in the US I think everyone will keep voltages under 80V per MPPT to align with NEC 690.

The 120V circuits parent was referring to are AC output of power electronics that convert DC from panels for grid/residential service.

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