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Analysts React to PS3 Delay 76

GameDailyBiz has a piece looking at some professional analyst opinion on what the PS3 delay means for Sony. From the article: "Merrill Lynch analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama cautioned, however, that we shouldn't take the global launch for granted as there are still many hurdles. '[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,' he said in a research note."
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Analysts React to PS3 Delay

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  • by Palshife ( 60519 ) on Wednesday March 15, 2006 @10:52PM (#14929917) Homepage
    Analyst says, "Woohoo! Something insignificant hasn't happened yet, so I get to analyze it! Ooh! Maybe I'll analyze some other analyst's analysis! I love my job!"
    • While it's easy to get drawn into the launch timing hype (exactly as Sony wants), some random business analyst's reaction interests me a lot less than would any techie reaction. There's this severely cutting edge bit of hardware heading our way, but virtually no technical comment about it.

      This isn't through lack of raw data. The Cell is very well documented, and the graphics community seems to know what the RSX is going to be about. That should be enough for reams of technical comment, especially about h
  • I'm really excited about the PS3. It looks like it will be a great system. However, I'm worried these delays might backfire much more than they suspect.

    Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.

    I just hope that the PS3 will get its fair shot despite being released later
    • by sexyrexy ( 793497 )
      with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them

      I'm sorry, are you suggesting that there is some sort of curve where launching the PS3 now would be less damaging to the 360's position than 6 months from now?
      • GP's post was poorly constructed, but I believe he meant that a Halo 3 launch at the time of the release of PS3 is possible again now that the PS3 has been officially delayed. Thus, the Halo 3 launch would again be a threat to Sony.

        Since I'm not a big Halo fan (though I liked the Xbox), I can't say that it would be a big deal to me. But, if Halo 3 "rocks" and brings a big new audience to the 360, that would indeed be bad for Sony. Worse for them would be if MS could find away to drop the price of the
    • by badasscat ( 563442 ) <basscadet75@@@yahoo...com> on Wednesday March 15, 2006 @11:20PM (#14930039)
      Bill Gates had previously stated he planned to release around the time of Playstation 3. Microsoft distanced themselves from those comments after it was apparent that Halo 3 wouldn't be ready in time, but with Playstation 3's delay this could once again become a threat to them.

      Repeat after me: there is no US delay. This is a delay in Japan.

      Halo 3 in Japan will sell somewhere between four and six copies. So I doubt Sony is any more worried about this today than they were yesterday.

      The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year." The only region to get an actual launch period was Japan, which was going to be "spring" of 2006. Given that, you can extrapolate from the launches of the PS1 and PS2 (which had Japan/US launches that were staggered by nearly a year in the PS1's case and around 8 months in the PS2's case) that the PS3 was probably going to arrive here before Christmas, but not much before. Most people had expected Thanksgiving or thereabouts.

      But the bottom line is you can't "delay" something that has never had a launch date to begin with, or even a launch month. Nothing more specific than 2006 was ever announced for the US before today. The delay affects Japan and Japan alone, so any talk of MS taking advantage of the situation is misguided. MS can no more exploit the situation as it exists today than they could exploit the situation that existed 3 weeks ago, because that situation hasn't changed in the west.

      My only guess about how all this confusion is happening even among supposedly highly-paid analysts is that somehow either a simultaneous launch had always been assumed (because, you know, MS did it) or some of these guys just simply failed to differentiate between regions. Not all of these guys are experienced enough to have been dealing with the game industry even back when the PS2 was launched. These analysts often deal with many different industries and they're not always as on top of things as it seems.
      • You're right to the extent that you've successfully restated what has actually been said. Where I think you go a bit wonky is in your implication that the delay in Japan means nothing in terms of the US launch. If they can't get the PS3 released in Japan before fall/winter that means they would have less leeway to produce sufficient stock for a US launch this year. In other words, Sony would end up in the same situation as Microsoft with the Xbox 360, launching the system in multiple markets without enou
      • Actually, I thought they had confirmed the delay in Japn until Fall of this year. That pushed back the US release until Spring 07.

        So far, Sony has done nothing to deny the Merryl Lynch report... well, they initially denied the delay, but now they confirm it. Nothing has been said about the cost of the unit, BOM over $800 - if true, means the unit will definitely NOT be under $500, as that is far too much of a loss to take on each unit (unless the games sell for $80-100 each)

        Of course, don't take my word

        • So far, Sony has done nothing to deny the Merryl Lynch report...

          Merryl Lynch has been predicting random doom for the PS3 for at least nine months that I've been paying attention. As far as I'm aware Sony's not yet responded to a single one of them for any reason.

          Which isn't very surprising. If Sony bothered to confirm or deny everything Merryl Lynch said, this would probably constitute the majority of their news releases.
      • The US plan officially has always been to launch the PS3 "this year."

        Actually, no. The plan used to roughly be:

        Japan: "Spring"
        USA: "Fall~Winter-ish but before Christmas"
        Europe and Australia: "Eventually"

        Thats one of the reasons why nearly everyone is throwing fits all of the sudden. You're looking at a WORLDWIDE release in less than a period of roughly 4~5 months. (Fall through Winter and December doesn't count cause its too late into the season.) Unless Sony has been secretly stockpiling PS3 hardware part

        • i rememeber reading another one of the delay rumor reports here a few days ago, and the cause was due to a memo from one of the manufacturers of ps3 parts. they were supposed to start ramping up starting in june. so at best case scenario if they churn out 1,000,000 a month from june til november... thats easily five million units created by launch. that still wont be enough to meet xmas demand. i doubt they will be as strapped for units as the x360 though. microsoft made less than 2 million units in a five
    • the ps2 installed user base should prevent them from serious issue. I'm not certain what percentage of user base retention is enough to be considered a success - but if they keep 70% of the ps2 user base - they still have enough revenue to ride well into the next decade. the xbox 360 - it's weird... because while it's a great machine - I don't see enough of a compelling reason for other console owners to come over and purchase one. It's not MSFT's fault per se - the machine damn near does everything except
      • if they keep 70% of the ps2 user base - they still have enough revenue to ride well into the next decade.

        Nintendo has a reputation for strong consumer loyalty. Let's see how their userbase retention has fared over the years.

        NES - 62 million consoles sold worldwide
        SNES - 49 million - 79% retention
        N64 - 33 million - 67% retention
        GC - 20 million - 61% retention

        So a 70% retention rate for Sony isn't too inconceivable -- provided that the new console costs about as much as the previous one did, as Nintendo's ha
  • Playstation, promised:
    * 1,500,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
    * 500,000 polygons per second, textured

    Playstation, reality:
    * 360,000 polygons per second, flat-shaded
    * 180,000 polygons per second, textured

    Playstation 2, promised:
    * 66,000,000 polygons per second

    Playstation 2, reality:
    * 7,000,000 polygons per second

    Meanwhile, those who are honest and try not to overpromise get screwed up the pooper:

    Dreamcast, promised:
    * 3,000,000 polygons per second

    Dreamcast, reality:
    * 5,000,000 polygons per second

    • by Anonymous Coward
      Good God, who gives a crap about polygons?! While you are sitting there staring at your spec sheet for your console, I am playing Zelda, Mario, Jak and Daxter, Metal Gear, Halo, Soul Caliber, and loads of other games that are fun. Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers? True game fans appreciate the game for the game, not how it looks. I am sorry that you feel like you were betrayed by some of these game companies, to the point of bringing this crap up all the freakin' t
      • by Anonymous Coward
        Yes, yes. Just ignore all the marketing bullshit Sony spouted before because THIS TIME THEY'RE REALLY TELLING THE TRUTH. Like totally.
      • by MobileTatsu-NJG ( 946591 ) on Thursday March 16, 2006 @12:41AM (#14930382)
        "Why in the hell do people like you give so much weight to these numbers?"

        A lot of people treat game console purchases as investments. The rationale is similar to "I'll buy a $4,000 PC now because it'll 'last' longer." The theory runs like this: "the greater the specs, the more impressive the games will be towards the end of the system's life cycle. Towards the end of the cycle, the machine with the better specs is the one that's going to get the more ambitious titles." There is some data to support this. (Note: I'm not saying it's strong rationale, but I can see how some would see it this way.) Compare the SNES to the Genesis. Towards the end of both system's life cycles, the SNES had Donkey Kong Country and the Genesis had Vector man. Both were beautiful games, but DKC outshined VM. Saturn vs. Playstation? I think most of us know which clobbered the other. It would also be totally reasonable to say that the DC wouldn't have aged as gracefully as the PS2, GC, and the XBOX. (Amusingly, I don't think the N64 rocked the boat like it could have in this case...)

        Frankly, all three systems are a gamble. Nobody is buying any of these systems knowing what will be coming down the line in the next 5 years. The best that can be done is to look at the system's potential. There is this fear that they'll buy the system, and it'll turn out to be a dud purchase. Ask anybody who's purchased a Jaguar. So what do you do? Well, specs, when assessed properly, are about the only tangibles we have. I have faith that Nintendo will create some excellent titles for the Revolution. But do I actually know that? Really, I don't. I do know, however, the type of processor the XBOX 360 has. I know how much RAM it has. I can look at that and make a mental estimation of what it'll be capable of. These are numbers I can work with. That sort of make sense?

        In any event, I don't think specs alone are going to make or break these systems. All three are designed around 3D gaming. (as opposed to the Saturn vs. the Playstation, the Saturn was leaned too far towards 2D.) The artists are going to make a much bigger difference than the hardware. Take Resident Evil 4. Very impressive game. Despite the technical differences between the PS2 and the GameCube, it came out pretty much the same. I realize I'm taking the scenic route here, but I'm basically saying that I agree with you. Fuck polycounts, they don't matter anymore. I just hope that Nintendo's not stupid enough to develop the Rev with a big enough bottleneck to make the games feel watered down in comparison.

        • If you are mostly interested in the games that will be available near the end of the console life cycle, you should buy the console near the end of its life cycle where it will be much cheaper. Actually, if you are mostly interested in games, systematically buying second hand consoles with second hand games near the end of the life cycle will probably be most rational.

          But games and hardware has never been about rationality, it is about the incredible feeling of owning the latest and greatest, and the bragg
        • The problem with that logic, at least with PCs, is that the hardware depreciation curve is often much steeper than that of the expected lifespan.

          As far as consoles, the systems are likely to have a 5 year lifespan, if history is any indication, and prices throughout that lifetime aren't likely to fall until the 2 year mark. Even at the 5 year mark, the price is likely to be around 50% of the original cost. While the actual savings would be slightly more, due to inflation and other factors, you can be reas
  • by Anonymous Coward
    Both of them - not just MS. So many here (and elsewhere) are concentrated on only the megacorporate Goliaths of this console competition that they forget about the David (the only real gaming company) toiling in the shadows.

    While MS might have an opening in the US, where we like our games to truly spur the mind (boobies! blood! guns! teh Halo!!11!), Nintendo is the true competition in Japan - and they now have a chance at edging-out Sony on the launch schedule..
    • i would like to see nintendo fare better this go around, but they really need to churn out some serious AAA titles quickly in order to capitalize on the early adopter market. due to the increased demands that games have required for the last two generations, excluding quality concerns, nintendo just couldnt keep up with sony in terms of overall title output. third party support is more important to a console than ever. since it takes longer than ever to gather and refine design and artistic elements for a g
  • Generator (Score:5, Funny)

    by Doomstalk ( 629173 ) on Wednesday March 15, 2006 @11:25PM (#14930067)
    It's shame to see all that spin go to waste- we should attach magnets to these analysts and generate some electricity.
    • 1. attach magnets to these analysts
      2. use spin they produce to generate some electricity
      3. use electricity to power more game consoles
      4. ?????
      5. PROFIT!

      You, sir, are a genius.
      (But, ha ha! I filed the patent application first!)
  • Delay? For Whom? (Score:1, Informative)

    The PS3:

    1) Has been pushed back two to three months in Japan
    2) Has the same schedule it always had in the US
    3) Has been moved forward in Europe

    Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system. Along with the BluRay drives, Sony is in the process of building up the components to be ready to start assembling them into final PS3 units in the May/June timeframe.

    Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but ha
    • Millions of European gamers are breaking open the champagne...

      There are that many?
    • Apparently they are on track to have enough units to ship about 500k systems to Japan in June but have decided to go for a simultaneous launch in all three territories in November with millions of units.

      That would have been awesome. Customers getting final PS3 hardware before game devs. rofl
    • Us in Australia are popping open our six packs.

      Not to mention having a dance with kangaroos
    • Re:Delay? For Whom? (Score:3, Informative)

      by wolrahnaes ( 632574 )
      Volume production of Cell chips for the PS3 is underway along with the RSX rasterizer for the system

      uh huh.....and nVidia publically stating that they are not recieving any payments for RSX chips this quarter (thus meaning that they're likely not producing them yet) seems to tell a different story.

      Given Sony's history of flat-out lying about the capabilities of their consoles, and nVidia's recent record of solid product launches, I'm going to have to trust nVidia over Sony (or a Sony employee, as you seeem
      • Recently I was building a new machine and ran into a small snag.

        I figured since it was being built into a MicroATX case that I would go with all SATA drives. SATA II Hard Drives, and the new Plextor SATA DVD-DL burner. It made sense: Better bandwidth, better airflow == Win, Win ... or so I thought.

        I also figured I would take advantage of the nVidia chipset's RAID ability to make a more reliable system by going to RAID1 (heck, speed is already fast enough most of the time, and the MicroATX case only had 2
        • That's a side effect of the shitty soft-RAID that these boards have. I'm running an A8N-SLI Deluxe, which has both 4 SATA ports of nV-RAID and another 4 ports from a Silicon Image SATA RAID controller. Both of them are the same crappy driver-based softraid masquerading as a proper RAID card.

          I don't think any comsumer motherboards actually have real RAID onboard. Hell, most server-class boards I see don't have it either, rather having either a ZCR expansion capability or ample slots for add-on cards.
    • Re:Delay? For Whom? (Score:3, Interesting)

      by sam_paris ( 919837 )
      It amuses me how wrong you actually are.

      You try and speak as one with insider knowledge but whoever you are getting this from is completely barking up the wrong tree.

      My best friend recently stopped working for sony and he knows exactly whats going on.

      Get this, the sony devs themselves don't have final hardware yet. (ie SCEE, and US etc) Do you think many games will be released in November when all the 3rd party devs will only have received (according to Sony) final dev kits in June??? Currently the
    • One thing that Sony has definately created is endless speculation and massive amounts of free advertising. It is now creating a sence of the whole gaming industry holding it's collective breath waiting for the arrival PS3. Microsoft and the xbox 360 hardly rate a mention in comparisson excpet in paid pieces.
  • by vandelais ( 164490 ) on Wednesday March 15, 2006 @11:32PM (#14930094)
    November is just affirmation of the more important and effective Europe and Americas launch.

    Secondly, the delay will allow for the unit costs of the components to decrease to a level where the risks of loss-leading are significantly reduced.

    If the delay is Blu-Ray related, as I have been hearing on CNBC all day, then the component cost for that piece alone will depreciate significantly.

    The difference between a loss of $150/unit and $190/unit (just speculation, here, no flames) would be huge.

    My only question here is whether I will be twisting off (diet) Coke or Pepsi (I'm a fat fuck)to try to get one.
  • Now instead of Japan having 6m, US having 2m, and rest of the world having 2m sold by March, it will be something like Japan having 3m, Us having 2m, and rest of the world having 2m sold by march (I recall the figures being 7m expected to be shipped by March 2007).... Unless they chop US sales down to like .5m for the first 4 months, then I'll be rather irritated....
  • by Wraithfighter ( 604788 ) <mtgfighter@yahoo.com> on Thursday March 16, 2006 @03:41AM (#14931035)
    I was watching AOTS (Tivo treatement makes it okay) and they brought on Adam Sessler on to comment on it, and he brought up an important point:

    We all saw the train wreck that was the 360's worldwide release. Not enough units to meet demand by far.

    And sony's trying this themselves.

    So Sony's gonna have a difficult launch with shortages probably everywhere. and a launch lineup that is probably not going to be stupendous (what launch has been that good?), meanwhile Microsoft will have significantly more units on hand, a year's worth of titles to choose from, not to mention more than a few good ones by November, and the promise of Halo 3.

    Sure, there's the whole "latest greatest thing" part, but how long do you think it'll last?

    Maybe sony would be better off doing a Japan only release first, if they don't think they can meet preorders worldwide.

    Oh, but right, the industry makes all of their money in November and December...
    • Exactly, look at Xbox360 launch. Pre-orders are probably 95% filled by now, almost spring. So if the PS3 is going worldwide launch it's only so you will keep your money in your pocket instead of buying an Xbox360. Think about all those people that would have got an Xbox360 NOW if they thought they weren't going to get a PS3 until Spring '07, now they have this slight slight chance of getting one before the end of this year. "Hope is a good breakfast, but it is a bad supper." -Francis Bacon.

      The Nov worldwide
  • Given that the development kits have been out there for a good while, and that we might for once see good hardware availability upon launch - I have a feeling the launch will be a sucesss. The game development studios all of a sudden have much more time to put the polish on their titles - and Sony might have time to make a new killer gadget like the eyetoy.

    I mean, what killer games are there for the xbox360 anyway? It seems it's all rehashed games with upgraded graphics.
    • The dev kits that have already been handed out are incomplete "loaner" kits and the final dev kits won't be out till July, http://ps3.ign.com/articles/696/696076p1.html [ign.com], however as you said this does give developers plenty of time to further polish their games even though I'd be surprised if any games were ready for a spring 2006 launch.

      Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter is the current "Killer App" for the 360, although Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion may give it a run for it's money when it comes out next week.

    • I mean, what killer games are there for the xbox360 anyway? It seems it's all rehashed games with upgraded graphics.

      What do you think you're going to get on PS3? I'll tell you what, Gran Turismo 5 (or whatever we're up to now), GTA $some_new_city, Tekkan 5 (or 6, or whatever) Madden 2007 and Generic First Person Shooter 9: The Shootening.

      Which, to be honest, makes sense. If you're launching a new console, you want to have sequels to popular games in the launch line up to encourage the fans of those fra
      • Generic First Person Shooter 9: The Shootening

        OMG. I want that game. When is it coming out? Will it have big guns? Can I dual wield? Will it have online death-matches?

  • From the article:
    "If Sony wins the Blu-ray/HD DVD battle, Sony's going to pass MS like their standing still."

    Needless to say, should be "they're."

"More software projects have gone awry for lack of calendar time than for all other causes combined." -- Fred Brooks, Jr., _The Mythical Man Month_

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