PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011

eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"

Contradicting themselves?

[rolfwind]

Also of note, the group believes fewer total consoles will be sold this next go-around due to higher console prices than were sold during the PS2, Xbox, and GameCube era. I thought the industry was suppose to grow? Either way, the Yankee Group also predicted constant Microsoft price undercutting. Next-Gen writes: "Microsoft is 'well-positioned' to cut the price of the Xbox 360 in spring 2007, potentially undercutting the $500-$600 PS3 by a wider margin. This pricing pressure from Microsoft is likely to continue throughout the course of the PS3's lifecycle, according to Yankee."

Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?

Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.

Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).

I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.

This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?

Re:Doesn't sound right

[Deliveranc3]

If Sony is losing money on each console and Nintendo is making money... Does not compute /-1 error!

Bottom line market share won't matter as much with this gen, at 800$ people won't be buying games.

Developing for an $800 console just seems like a bad bad idea.

Re:The Yankee group confirms...

[jedi_chemist]

Hmmm. The answer lies in the software not the hardware. I think as long as Sony holds the title of being the system to get Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, and the Grand Theft Auto games, people will buy their system. Nintendo needs to do something with the launch of Wii that it did not do with the previous two systems: have a good batch of games at launch. Apparently that is so because Zelda is going to be released for Wii. I know I bought a gamecube simply to play Wind Waker (and it was worth every penny!) and I got to experience some other great Nintendo games as well including the Metroid Prime series. Now, with that in mind, a Wii with Zelda will still be far cheaper than simply buying a PS3. Many people like me are going to go for a Wii and save some cash. I predict, with Square-Enix making Final Fantasy III for DS and a new Mana for DS, that Final Fantasy ### may return to the realm of Nintendo if Nintendo can show that it is worthy. Now if Nintendo got over the fear of "adult" games and lobbied Rockstar to make GTA for the Wii (imagine actually swinging the baseball bat at your prey!) I think Nintendo could take back its rightful throne as top video game system in America. Oh, and another thing that Wii has is that you will be able to play a virtual library of congress of great games from Sega, Nintendo, and NeoGeo.

-1 flamebait

[brkello]

That's all this is on Slashdot considering how Nintendo heavy the fans are around here. If you just read here, you would have to assume the only console people will buy is the Wii. It will be really insteresting to see how the 3 compete this year. It surely won't be 70% wii as Mr. fanboy posted up earlier...but Nintendo at has a decent chance this time around to be competitive as far as sales go (we all know they will be the most profitable). I really don't care who wins. Competition is a good thing because it forces companies to innovate, increase quality, or reduce prices. People who want Nintendo to destroy the competition are morons. With no competition their next console could be like the VirtualBoy. I hope all the companies do well and continue to bring us better things at a competitive price.

Because the PSP is far outselling the DS.....wait

[hakubi]

Look at Nintendo's dominance of the handheld market in Japan (and the world). Look at Nintendo's appraoch to maketing games to literally every demographic from toddlers to the elderly. Look at all the interest being generated about the Wii (E3). Look at the price differences between the new consoles and Nintendo's. They're taking a very different approach to a next generation system, we can't reliably use past performance to guage what will happen. Especially that far in the future.

A new law...

[MrTester]

From now on, all marketing firms are required to have a % of correctmarket predictions following their name on all articles.

i.e.

"The Yankee Group (10%) (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"

Those that do not comply will be publicly flogged and generally shunned.

Re:Typo

[TheFlamingoKing]

No.

I guarantee to you that all the optical drives in all PS2s will die by 2009. That's even if you go out and buy one now. That is Sony's ultimate plan to make you buy a PS3 with their fancy new Blue-DRM - so you can play all those games you have on your shelf since your PS2 died.

Re:Doesn't sound right

[mausmalone]

Well, they were actually going by units sold.

Funny that they claimed that there would be a small up-turn in total consoles sold next-gen over current gen, but somehow the total they predict for all 3 consoles comes in under what the PS2 sold. In Japan alone.

Seriously, I doubt the Yankee Group's adding skills, much less their predicting skills.

Wrong conclusions, but maybe flawed metrics too?

[Maudib]

I think market share is a silly metric in some ways. Nintendo is the most profitable of all the game companies for the the last several years, despite market share. This is because they dont take a loss on hardware, have tons of highly profitable in house titles, and dont blow billions on marketing. Sony plans on loosing about $1 Billion dollars launching the PS3, and I think Microsoft lost more then that. Who cares about market share, isnt there end goal to turn a profit? Show me the breakdown on profits per system over the next 5 years please.

Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.

My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).

Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.

When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.

Re:Pardon Me For Being Cynical

[bman08]

Not to mention those that bought PSPs and swore, after the 4th cripple patch, never to buy another sony gaming product no matter the cost.

As someone who is not a gamer...

[owlnation]

So, I've never ever in my life played either a playstation, an Xbox, or anything similar in the way of gaming. I am not a market analyst, nor a gaming expert, and am not being paid by Sony or any other vested interest - as I strongly suspect the Yankee group may be...

However, despite my total lack of interest in gaming for the past 20 years, the Wii has caught my eye. I want one. The name is silly, but even so, it actually looks FUN! If it actually delivers as much as it promises then they will soar.

There's a whole non-gamer gaming market out there - just like me. Even girls would buy one if they do an OMG Ponies!!!1!! game (and they should).

If I want one so will others. Don't listen to the Sony and MS shills!

Yeah...I know... never touched a game...I'll be handing in my Geek ID card at the end of the article.

Re:Doesn't sound right

[twistedsymphony]

Wii is the first console to ever really excite me. I've never owned a single Nintendo machine, but I would be more than willing to part cash to get my hands on this. While I appreciate I can only speak for myself, if Nintendo is winning over people who've never had an interest in them before...

While I think the Wii definitely has the potential it seems to at present only be winning over those people who have a pulse on the game industry. Those friends of mine IRL all seem to range from indifferent about the Wii to not knowing anything about it. Most people either own an Xbox 360 or claim that it looks nice but doesn't have the games they want. Out of the former PS2 owners I know about 3/4 of them have sworn Sony off altogether as crazy based on their pricing and the other 1/4 wants it no matter how much they charge "you know, because it's Sony..." Though that number even seems to be dropping by the day.

I'd say Microsoft and Nintendo could run away with this next generation if they learn to market it well... get the Wii-Mote in peoples hands through kiosks, show off TV adds for all the different games in your library etc. If they could out-market Sony and publicly ridicule their price point then they'd have a fighting chance to combat the people who will buy the PS3 just because it's the sequel to the PS2.

Re:Linux-Homebrew will be the point

[CronoCloud]

Don't forget Nethack.

It's also an attack against Microsoft's bottom line. What if the average Joe/jane figures out that they can do the things they want to do on a computer on the PS3. If little bobby wants to do is homework while Mom & Dad are doing whatever they can just point little bobby to his PS3. or vice versa. Thus reducing the demand for multiple Wintel machines in a household, thus cutting into Microsoft's profits.

Re:Doesn't sound right

[laird]

I agree. Sony and Microsoft have gotten arrogant and are trying to sell what they want to sell, not what people want to buy. That is, Sony and MS both want to "own the living room" with a high-end PC-class machine with DVD player/internet/game/do everything hardware with the best spec's. What people want to buy is some cheap entertainment. If the Wii is more fun to play with, and costs half of what the PS3 and the XBOX 260 cost, it will win.

To compare to the previous generations, MS and Sony are selling the 3DO, N64 and DreamCast (too expensive to buy, too expensive to develop for, too big, over-engineered) and Nintento is selling the 2600/NES/PlayStation (cheap, fun, simple). This is also why the Nintendo DS is crushing the Sony PSP in the portable market.

If the Wii is cheap, easy and fun, it doesn't matter what the spec's are for the XBOX 360 or PS3.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crdak-1qhMo [youtube.com] captures the market positioning perfectly.

Ooh, Psychic News!

[BSonline]

Did anyone have to dial a 1-900 number for that prediction? The world was once predicted to be flat, and people once thought Sony was cool.
I'm sure it will gain market share, but it's going to start off flat. After the first price break (they'll need many)they'll get a decent boost. After Blu-Ray follows UMD, Sony stock will go up... in smoke.
See, anyone can make predictions! The Xbox 360 has some potential to escape the bad press that usually follows M$ around. The Wii is innovative enough to really blow some minds. It's either going to do really well, or fall flat.
Personally, I've owned the PS2, Gamecube, and the Xbox. I gave away my PS2 and still have the other two systems to compete with each other. Ninja Gaiden was the last thing I played on the Xbox, and I wish there had been a Gamecube version.

The turbulence makes it impossible to predict...

[7Prime]

Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:

• Wii launch is a success, and then everyone takes the system home to find that the Wiimote is glitchy and uncomfortable for long-term use, sales plummit as launch purchasers warn their friends. The system is religated to using the GCN controller, and fizzles.
• Wii launch is a huge success, the Wiimote turns out to be even more fun then expected, and titles like Red Steal and Madden2007 begin to capture the attention of the "hardcore" and sports crowds, which flock away from the 360 and PS3, assuring the Wii's dominance in the next generation.
• Wii launch is average to low, but becomes an overnight hit with its audience, spurring a national movement along the lines of the iPod, virtually overnight, over the next 3 months, sales gradually increase to market dominance levels.
• The PS3 launches surprisingly strongly, although its innitial sales are only moderately successfull. After the first price drop, however, all the "price drop watchers" come running, and sales soar, putting Sony back on top of the console market.
• The launch of the PS3 and Wii marks the end of the last gen. People, unwilling to spend $600 on a console, and uneasy about the Wii's new control setup, finally put down their money on the 360, which saurs to the top of the charts.
• PS3 launches very well, and continues to do very well.

Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.

Re:Doesn't sound right

[Raenex]

I will most likely buy a PS3, not because I'm some kind of "psycho Sony fanboy" or anything, but because the spec sheet pins it being a better overall system if/when(?) the games start rolling in for it.

The PS3's theoretical power is based on being able to maximize use of its parallel cores. In reality, nobody has shown how to come anywhere close to the PS3's theoretical power. Not a single game previewed looks even moderately superior to the 360's offerings. Unless somebody comes up with a killer game that can't be matched on the 360, the average consumer is going to balk at the $500/$600 asking price.

Personally, I own a 360 and I think the whole "next gen" thing is over-hyped and over-priced crap. The games aren't any more interesting. The graphics aren't *that* much better. The box is big, noisy, and has heat trouble. The high-resolution TV market is in a state of chaos.

The Wii, on the other hand, while not boasting cutting edge specs, is incredibly small [typepad.com], has an innovative controller, and a great price. I'm hoping Nintendo pulls the rug out from both Microsoft and Sony.