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Comment Re:OpenAI is dying and SpaceX is overvalued (Score 1) 12

Ed Zitron is a moron who has predicted the past nine out of zero AI crashes, who simultaneously gets paid to hate on AI while also getting paid to promote AI (DoNotPay).

The funny thing is that he openly acknowledges that inference is very profitable (~40% margins) for all parties - he just argues that you should count training. But that argument makes no sense, because if capital tightens across the AI industry, then everyone will cut back on training and scaleup, and... then what? Where's the implosion? Everyone is profitable then. You may lose certain players in competition against others (their as-mentioned profitable assets being gobbled up by others), but the industry remains healthy.

There are more dramatic types of possible contagion risk, but they all end up with *someone* holding onto the high-profit-generating inference assets, even if it's high-seniority investors, leaving the the low seniority investoors high and dry.

Comment Re:Just numbers, or some culture? (Score 1) 61

It could certainly just be a numbers game

FWIW, here are numbers:

Gasoline-powered cars: 1530 fires per 100,000 sold
Hybrid cars: 3475 fires per 100,000 sold
Electric cars: 25 fires per 100,000 sold

Source: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/s...

An interesting aside: The delivery trucks used by the US Postal Service for the last 40 years are crazy fire-prone. I learned this recently because my brother is a mail carrier and a few weeks ago he was out delivering when he saw wisps of white smoke from under the hood. He pulled over and jumped out to investigate, but by the time he got out it had turned into large black streams of smoke and by the time he walked around to the front he could see small flames. Instead of popping the hood he ran to back and started pulling the mail out. The fire truck arrived about two minutes after he pulled over (this all happened about 100 yards from the fire station) so a couple of packages in back got a little damp but he got everything else clear.

His boss brought him another truck about 10 minutes later and he loaded it up and finished the route. Neither snow, nor rain, nor external engine combustion stays these couriers, you know.

Mail truck fires are so common there's even a web site that tracks them: https://mailtruckfires.com/. This is my brother's truck: https://mailtruckfires.com/uta...

There are four or five distinct serious design flaws that make mail trucks fire prone. Mail carriers are excited about the new trucks that are coming, which should be much better. Many of them will be EVs.

Comment Re: Single dumbest way? (Score 1) 163

Distinction without difference. All conservatives ever do is co-opt and destroy. 80%, 20%, Donald Trump is 100% who American conservatives are.

No. I refuse to allow Trump to redefine conservatism. True conservatives may be criticized for caring more about economic competitiveness than people, but Trump doesn't care about either.

Comment Re:The ending of Covenant was exploitatively stupi (Score 1) 23

Someone said that Ridley can create movies if the script is great but it not...

That one was yet another case of Ridley having a script, deciding it was good enough to start building sets and working on effects, and then constantly changing the script all the way up through editing. Whole subplots got dropped, characters who appeared in promo material just never showed up in the movie, character motivations stopped making sense, plot points were retroactively changed, etc. Prometheus suffered from the same problem, if not to an even greater degree. It's like those movies where everybody cries "studio interference!" ... only in Ridley's case, he's the one who interferes constantly with his own movies.

Comment Re:Huh? (Score 1) 50

From TFS:

The suit alleges that Mann used BitTorrent to download over five million pirated books, and that employees downloaded at least two million more from Pirate Library Mirror. It also claims that Anthropic scraped lyrics from sites like MusixMatch and LyricFind, which paid to license content from the labels.

Comment no buy (Score 2) 160

I am actually thinking about my next BMW (my current one is getting old). Knowing this, the iX3 is off the list.

BMW had a great control system, intuitive, possible to do many things without even looking. "Young people prefer" ? Really? The young people that actually buy your cars? Well, they'll learn and not prefer touchscreens anymore on the 2nd car.

Comment Re:So What's the Benefit? (Score 2) 30

They've been launching dummysats from Starship for a number of launches now, so I'm not sure why you think they're "forever away". The only reasons they've been using dummysats and not actual satellites is 1) Not wanting to risk more valuable payloads thusfar, and 2) wanting to keep Starship suborbital (e.g. trajectory that reintersects the atmosphere) at just under orbital velocity until they can verify deorbit reliability (failure to do so would leave that massive ship falling onto a random point on Earth).

If they were to choose to, they could start launching payloads on all subsequent Starship missions, even if they're not yet ready for reliable recovery or quick reuse. In fact, given the killing off of Falcon 9 in Florida, one can presume that's the plan (if not immediately, then soon).

Comment "Further Reading" is hilarious (Score 3, Interesting) 30

Further reading: Musk's other unstated reasons for shutting down Falcon 9 in Florida (Behind The Black)

TL/DR, the author thinks that SpaceX shutting down Falcon 9 launches from Florida was secretly a magnanimous gesture by a charitable Elon Musk to boost the competition:

I therefore honestly believe that SpaceX’s decision was not entirely based on its own internal needs. Those needs certainly were the main motive, but based on Elon Musk’s passionate dream of making the human race multi-planetary, as well as his repeated willingness to help his competitors when they needed SpaceX to launch their satellites, I believe he recognized that SpaceX’s dominance could be hurting the rest of the rocket industry, and that the instant it made business sense to clear the field for these competitors, he was quite willing to do so.

LOL.

Comment Re: The long-term impact of this on the US (Score 1) 191

CAIS: Male or female?

Swyer Syndrome: Male or female?

What is "sex" (let alone gender)? Of the numerous axes, each with their subaxes:

1. Genetic:

* Karyotype (including mosaicism and chimericism)
* SRY presence / absence
* Gene presence, expression, and functionality (SOX9, RSPO1, WNT4, DMRT1, FOXL2, WT1, SF1, DHH, CBX2, AR, SRD5A2, HSD17B3, CYP19A1, etc)
* Müllerian inhibiting factor (AMH/AMHR2) expression and reception
* Epigenetic regulation (imprinting, methylation, chromatin remodeling)
* Androgen expression and reception

2. Gonadal

* Gonadal Type (ovaries, testes, ovotestes, streak gonads, dysgenetic gonads)
* Gonadal Function (steroidogenic capacity, gametogenic potential)
* Gonadal Position (abdominal, inguinal, scrotal/labial, absent)
* Germ Cell Presence/Absence (oocytes, spermatogonia, none)
* Gonadal Hormone Secretion (androgens, estrogens, AMH, inhibin)

3. Hormonal Axes

* Androgen levels (testosterone, DHT, androstenedione)
* Estrogen levels (estradiol, estrone)
* Progestogen levels (progesterone)
* Gonadotropin levels (LH, FSH)
* AMH levels (high in males, low in females)
* Adrenal androgens (DHEA, DHEAS in CAH)
* Hormone sensitivity (AR mutations, ER mutations)

4. Internal Reproductive Structures

* Vaginal Canal (depth, presence of cervix)
* Ejaculatory Ducts (patent, atretic)
* Wolffian Duct Derivatives (epididymis, vas deferens, seminal vesicles) - present, absent, or partially developed
* Müllerian Duct Derivatives (uterus, fallopian tubes, upper vagina) - present, absent, or partially regressed
* Prostate/Skene’s glands (size, functionality)

5. External Genitalia Axes

* Phallus structure (clitoris, penis, or intermediate)
* Size (micropenis, clitoromegaly)
* Urethral position (hypospadias, normal)
* Labioscrotal folding (labia majora, scrotum, bifid scrotum, fused labia)
* Vaginal opening (present, absent, urogenital sinus)
* Perineal configuration (distance from anus, midline fusion)

6. Secondary Sex Characteristics (e.g. post-pubertal)

* Breast development (Tanner stages, gynecomastia, absent)
* Body hair distribution (androgenic vs. non-androgenic patterns)
* Voice pitch (androgen-dependent deepening)
* Muscle/fat distribution (male vs. female typical)
* Bone structure (pelvic width, shoulder breadth)
* Larynx size (Adam’s apple prominence)

7. Reproductive Functional Axes

* Fertility status (fertile, subfertile, infertile)
* Gamete production (spermatozoa, ova, none)
* Menstrual status (eumenorrheic, amenorrheic, dysmenorrheic)
* Spermatogenic capacity (azoospermia, oligospermia, normal)
* Ovarian reserve (normal, diminished, premature failure)

8. Neurological & Behavioral Axes

* Brain sexual dimorphism (SDN-POA, BSTc, corpus callosum)
* Gender identity (congruent or incongruent with anatomy)
* Sexual orientation (androphilic, gynephilic, bisexual, asexual)
* Prenatal androgen exposure effects (CAH-related behavioral shifts)

There is no "single thing called sex". It is a vastly multidimensional space. The parameters in this space are *correlated* but not inherently causal. If you define purely based on any one factor, you come up with ludicrous consequences like pregnant women being classed as men or whatnot.

Furthermore, each subaxis has varying degrees of (A) malleability, and (B) impact on daily life. Some are highly malleable, others not at all with current technology. But it just so happens that the subaxes that impact daily life the most tend to be the most malleable, while the ones that impact it the least tend to be the least malleable. For example, the presence of SRY is not at all malleable, and yet it's also entirely irrelevant to a person's daily life. Yet curiously, "sex essentialists" always try to come up with their definitions based on subaxes that fall into the latter category, not the former category.

For the concept of "other sexes" (your words) to exist, you have to be able to have an essentialist definition of what one's immutable sex is (otherwise, the concept of there being some immutable "other sex" is incoherent). So what is your balance of the above axes, how did you reach that as being the most logical conclusion, and how would you respond to someone raising the case of someone who fits one sex within your definition but is flipped on most / all of the other axes?

Comment Re:who's next under the bus (Score 1) 191

You realize that you don't "import" immigrants, right?

People flee horrific situations in their homeland - war, violence, inability to feed themselves and/or their children, etc. You don't "import" them, they come to you.

The political debate is over whether to show them sympathy or to send them back to be killed and starve. Over whether diversity is a strength or a weakness. Over, on the sale of zero assimilation to spending every day driving a monster truck and eating a diet of corn dogs and beef jerky, how much assimilation is to be expected. Over whether their kids grow up just as American as anyone else or whether they're fundamentally Othered.

There are no "importation conspiracies". There are debates over how to react to a situation that already exists: with sympathy and hope, or fear and hostility.

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