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Comment Re:Can the F-35 do anything on time and budget? (Score 0) 14

You're asking the wrong question here. The question you should be asking is:

"Can the US president receive 3 billion US dallas in the first 9 months in office via anonymous purchases of his shitcoin?"

When you realize the answer is a resounding "yes" and that his kids got another $7B on top of these 3, many things will begin to make sense to you.

Comment Re: For now (Score 2, Insightful) 92

In no way does China have technical superiority. I read the whole article, and have worked in China before; that is not at all the takeaway here.

There are two key takeaways. China currently has "capacity superiority". This is not technical superiority, this is production superiority. However it's clear they also have an enormous problem, evidenced by how it discusses the brutal price wars that go on in China. That speaks to a weak consumer market despite the capacity they built, so, as the article says, many are turning to exports. Nowhere does this article discuss the financial health of the companies, but you can surmise that because of the brutal price wars those margins are very slim. So when they turn to exports on slim margins, they're effectively dumping. So all we're seeing here is China trying to own an entire category by overbuilding supply and dumping their products on other markets. This is not an uncommon story, and there are ways to deal with this.

The second is for anyone who is actually experienced in China, everything is orchestrated. The government, from the CCP in Beijing to local governments, have a heavy hand on these companies. If 8 VCs went to Europe or the US and travelled around looking at companies, they would get a clear picture. In China, nothing is clear. I don't for one second believe that the message these people got was not orchestrated well in advance to create the right impression. And it worked. The Chinese government wants people to believe they will only get advanced goods from China, and these VCs went along with it and bought it.

And why would they do that? Because it is taking effect. The problem with China's economic model is yes, they are quite efficient at making things. But the problem is they need someone to sell too; what good is it if you can make stuff if no one wnats to buy? And this is a big issue. US imports from China have fallen about 20% since 2022 ($536B in 2022 to around $462.6B in 2024), whereas every other country has gone up, notably South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, etc. US supply chains are shifting away from China already so it's in China's interest to maintain thsi narrative that they're the only place to get these technologies. In 2022, the US market bought $582B worth of goods, with Japan being the next largest at $172B and South Korea at $162B. When the US drops by nearly $100B in trade, where is China going to find another market of that size to replace it?

So no, I read this very differently. This to me is typical China propaganda trying to emphasize China's critical role because they're struggling, not because they are strong, and the only reason they are the place to make these is because of slim margins and dumping practices, which never last forever.

Comment Re:Why stay in Seattle? (Score 0) 52

Geographical mobility used to be much easier. In the age of credit scores and limited housing, it is extremely difficult to find a landlord who will admit you without a job, and much harder to find a job that will hire you without already being local.

Well, credit scores as we know them have been around since the 60's...so, not really that new.

There's PLENTY of housing....just depends on what part of the US you are in.

I see houses for sale all the time where I live (New Orleans area)....it may be scarce in NYC or west coast urban areas....but that is not the whole US.

In other parts of the US, there are homes...GOOD jobs, and cost of living is much less.

And those are regular W2 jobs.....if you jump into 1099 contracting....you can work wherever and very much often....remote.

I've done both....and if you have any job experience, you can get jobs before you moved.

I've never moved before having a job in that area....

Comment Re:Link to paper (Score 1) 70

The year is 1992. You are an undergrad in physical science at a pretty good school (but certainly not Ivy league). In a freshmen chemistry class final, you use wild extrapolation from a small data set to make significant extrapolation of the x-axis. Your professor gives heavy sigh, and gives out yet-another F. You go on to become a climate scientist and continue to do this because you never understood why it is bad. Your now dead professor can only roll over in his grave.

A number of the PM 2.5 studies I've seen do exactly this. They gather air quality data and run the figures based on preexisting models of health impacts to entire populations or even the entire planet and surprise out comes insane figures.

I just want to know how they came to radically different figures in a later revision of the same work. This is well outside the range of the CI in the version published in nature.

Comment Hmmm (Score 3, Insightful) 44

I currently work hybrid. It reduces my effective pay by around 10%, which is a hell of a cut. It gains me nothing, since all meetings - even when we're all in the same room - are via teams, because company policy.

I see no added value from visiting the office.

Comment Re:Why stay in Seattle? (Score 1) 52

Not so easy once your kids have friends and school in Seattle.

As a child, I had to move with my parents a number of times as Dad progressed through his career....

Hell,, military brats do it all the time still....but it wasn't that long ago this was pretty common....grow up, leave the nest....it's ok and natural....

Comment Re:Why stay in Seattle? (Score 1) 52

I guess you must be single or young....Reasons not to leave your area: owning a house, family, friends, not wanting to pull kids from school during critical times (or mid year), established connections, and a lot more tech jobs in Seattle than 99% of the rest of america, outside silicon valley? "Sell your house" and then you pick up a house that is also overpriced but pay much higher property taxes. Income tax is *zero* in Washington...Also, this is actually Redmond, not Seattle proper.

When did people get to be such pussies about moving?

Hell, when I grew up, this was a common thing....you moved to where the best job or new opportunity was.

Fun? No.

PITA? Yes

But families did it as a matter of how life is/was....

I remember as a kid moving a number of times

...as my Dad career progressed.

I myself have moved....

Do people today believe that as grown adults they STILL have to live near Mommy and Daddy?

Friends? Well hell, there's a TON of ways to stay in touch that weren't there when I was young....you only had phone calls and snail mail growing up and if they were real friends....you stayed in touch.

Today it's a piece of cake to keep in touch.

When I grew up, most people I knew hit the road at 18yrs or so and often it was to a different state for college and jobs....no one had to stay in same town as Mommy....but then again, we never too "Mommy" out on job interviews like they apparently do today...

Comment Hard to say; what standards do they support? (Score 1) 22

Can you use the hardware without any Meta services? Can you use competing hardware with Meta's services? And then beyond just services, can you fully replace the whole software stack?

Any "no"s above will make the utility dubious, such that there's little point in spending much time getting to know the product (except for RE purposes). OTOHs "yes"s will indicate that these types of wearables are starting to become viable.

Comment Re:\o/ (Score 0) 70

I guess if this is true....

Then I regularly shorten my neighbors lives (and mine) whenever I fire up my log burning offset smoker for BBQ.

I don't generally have any complaints....quite the opposite reaction in general (I share and offer to throw things on for them too, since it is large and I often have extra room).

Comment Link to paper (Score 1) 70

Prior version of this work here:
https://www.nber.org/system/fi...

It states: "We project that climate-driven increases in future smoke PM2.5 could result in 27,800 excess deaths per year by 2050 under a high warming scenario, a 76% increase relative to estimated 2011-2020 averages. "

From abstract published in nature:

"We project that smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% CI: 34,930 - 98,430) per year by 2050 under a high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) - a 73% increase relative to estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke."

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