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Comment Re: does it, though? (Score 1) 197

That is true but also besides the point. Communicating like "a human" is the point here. WHICH human, exactly? We already have problems with hallucinations. If we now train them on huge data sets intentionally designed for the human habit of saying the opposite of what you mean, we're adding another layer of problems. Maybe get the other ones solved first?

Comment Re:Nuances (Score 1) 44

"I *would* argue that Apollo 8 and 13 did not go to the moon"

Hey, this is your nit. So...

No 'Apollo' went to the Moon. That achievement was credited to Lunar Landers...

You mean the... wait for it... Apollo lunar module?

Apollo 8 was an unqualified success.

Didn't say it was't. I just said it was a lunar mission, but not a mission to the moon.

Apollo 13 was in fact a partly successful mission, and was indeed NASA's finest hour. Everything before that laid the groundwork for recovery from sure disaster, and everything after that was more mindful than ever of the real challenges of space.

No question about that. Any mission where the astronauts return home in one piece is at least partially successful, because that one ultra-critical part still went right.

And forgotten when NASA started believing they were smarter than they were, and the Shuttle program cost astronaut lives, many needlessly.

I have to disagree with that. Yeah, the shuttle design sucked in a lot of critical ways, but we mostly have the military to blame for that, because of their requirement that satellite retrieval be a critical feature in any future NASA craft. Pretty much all of what doomed both of the failed shuttle missions ultimately stems from that design decision and the compromises that came out of that decision (specifically, the need to put the shuttle on the side of the stack stemmed from the need to use the SSMEs to have enough lift capacity to bring large satellite payloads to orbit).

Challenger failed because of that. Columbia failed because of that.

Sure, there were other causes. Challenger also failed because warnings about the o-rings were dismissed by middle management and not brought to the attention of the people who could do something about it. It failed because nobody saw the leaking plume and thought, "The tank could blow. We need to do an early SRB sep and an RTLS abort or an abort once around (depending on alitude).

Columbia also failed because NASA failed to deal with the foam problem that had plagued numerous previous shuttle missions. Columbia also failed because NASA didn't have any plan in place to repair critical leading edge tiles in orbit. Columbia also failed because NASA didn't have a plan for launching a rescue shuttle if something went wrong. Columbia also likely failed in part because NASA didn't replace the oldest bird in the fleet with one of the newer, much lighter versions, which weighed about four tons less (112.4 pounds per square foot of wing area on Columbia versus 107.5 pounds per square foot for Endeavor, for example). Maybe that small difference wouldn't have made it survivable, or maybe it would have.

Columbia also failed because they deliberately didn't look to see the state of things, believing that nothing could be done, and therefore they did not launch a supply rocket to restock them so that they could extend the mission until they could come up with a solution or launch a rescue shuttle. They did not sacrificially open the landing gear early to cool the wing and allow plasma a path out of the damaged wing during reentry (and increase drag). They did not deploy the drag chute early sacrificially to increase drag. They did not perform all of their turns in a way that would minimize heating on the bad wing or bring the thing down in a continuous curve to increase heat on one side and decrease the heat on the other side. And so on. None of those things were even discussed, because they took it as a foregone conclusion that there was nothing they could do, so they didn't even try.

But at the same time, the number of things they *did* think of, at least during the design stages, is incredible. For example, if they *had* caught the Challenger problem in time to do an early ET and SRB separation, they trained for aborting back to KSC, and the crew could have been saved. Columbia was pretty much screwed without a rescue mission, of course, but the fact that the computer could basically autoland the shuttle (except for the landing gear, which required an umbilical and some new software) meant that *if* they had caught that in time and sent a supply mission and a later rescue mission to bring the crew home, they could have attempted a landing of the shuttle without sacrificing anyone. It meant that if the crew became incapacitated, it could probably mostly bring itself to a landing, albeit a very tile-destroying landing. And so on.

So at least for Columbia, it isn't so much that they believed that they were smarter than they were so much as that they gave up. I don't know which is worse.

I'm not very hopeful that Artemis will be worth the expense, but if ii succeeds, I am back in love with space exploration.

I definitely don't think it's worth the expense. They're doing three flights with the design and then throwing it away for a different version in the fourth flight, then throwing it away again in the ninth flight, meanwhile, assuming SpaceX continues on its current trajectory (with Starship block 3 launching in 2026), the Artemis block 2 lift vehicle will be hopelessly out of date years before its first launch (post-2030, with a quarter the payload capacity, and at orders of magnitude higher cost).

It's the best rocket Congress and defense contractor lobbyists could design.

Comment Framework for Revolutionary Tech (Score 1) 27

Here is a pretty typical framework for tech innovation. I will use cars as an example.

1) New Tech appears. Disruption happens. More jobs, but people realize old jobs will go away.
Cars invented. Lots of new employees hired to build cars. Everyone involved in the horse based transportation system feels a chill.

2) More people being hired, but old jobs start vanishing. Still more jobs than before, but everyone can see the writing on the wall. Multiple car companies appear. horse trainers, raisers, carriage makers, all begin to lose business. Some go into the new business, others are in trouble.

3) Old business vanishes. New business is so much cheaper that poor people start using the new business, something they could not afford to do. Things that were rare become common and new related businesses start to rise. Less than 1% of people still using horses. But workers at car factories can afford a car, people start bussing kids to schools, and gasoline stations start appearing. Surprising, STILL more jobs than before. Why? Gasoline is a huge business. Where there was one horse per rich family on the block, two car families are common.

4) Even more uses/ businesses start to appear. New problems are created AND solved. Car racing is easier than horse racing. Government need to police the car owners, regulate the businesses and the vehicles themselves. Cars need new tricks - including air conditioners, towing capabilities. RVs appear. Car Insurance appears. Refrigeration trucks appear. People use cars for minor trips to the neighbor 20 blocks away (god, the kids are lazy....). The total number of jobs has actually risen far beyond what the horse based transportation system allowed.

5) New tech totally disrupts the old one - go back to step 1. Electric cars and self driving cars.

Comment Re:Nuances (Score 1) 44

You're creating a distinction without a large difference.

You are splitting hairs over the definition of what "going to the moon" means - does it include going anywhere within the moon's gravitational sphere of influence, or do you have to actually touch regolith for it to count?

hint: if you have to touch regolith, then you are claiming that Apollo 8 and Apollo 13 did not go to the moon, which is going to cause far more confusion and argument.

*shrugs*

I *would* argue that Apollo 8 and 13 did not go to the moon, though Apollo 8 is notable for being the first human spacecraft to enter lunar orbit, which means it still a huge milestone. Apollo 13, of course, failed spectacularly in its attempt to reach the moon, and is notable for being one of the most amazing saves in the history of the space program. And clearly they are both lunar missions, in that they are moon-related, whereas when I think of a moon mission, I think of a mission specifically to the moon's surface. Very esoteric linguistic distinction, and I may just be splitting hairs.

Comment AI written article (Score 3, Funny) 32

Note the article says it is AI written.

It also shows no link to Microsoft. Nothing supporting it's claim.
Nor a link to let you sign up for the claimed service.

Not saying it is definitely a hallucination. Just saying that if it is not a hallucination, it is typical of what bad writing looks like. A competent human would have put some link to Microsoft in the article.

Comment Re:HD puppets? (Score 1) 3

The point is that people are investing vast sums of money to create elaborately-packaged boxed sets that are simply too vast to be actually enjoyed (apparently, the new boxed set Thunderbirds will include heavily restored footage that simply wasn't capable of being included in earlier releases), and upscaling a puppet show to 4K and still have it watchable is far from trivial -- those puppets were never made to be seen on such large screens at such high resolution. The scale of investment into making this publicity stunt and boxed set is incredible, the cost of the set isn't low, and the value of the material that's in the set - even to die-hard fans - isn't nearly as great.

Goblin/Guardian: The Lonely and Great God is an even more extreme example and includes 270 minutes of backstage footage, a large pack of publicity photos, scripts, and a tacky plastic sword. It's an extremely limited edition special collector's edition and the resale market is pricing it as though it includes a couple of solid gold ingots. People will certainly binge-watch the episodes once or twice, which will undoubtedly be in much higher resolution than the rare streamed versions, but not even the afficados will be watching all the making-of footage and the scripts will doubtless be on the Internet somewhere. Unlike high-end sci-fi, though, the storyline is simple so the difference between the scripts and fan-produced transcripts won't be vast. (It was a very good storyline, I was impressed, but it was hardly a case where the tiny nuances matter.) But K-Drama is milled in unimaginable quantities, so much so that many series just can't pick up any kind of audience and are abandoned. It's not produced for repeated watching and the odds of any show, however good, being repeatedly watched (the way fans repeatedly watch LoTR or SW) is essentially zero. But someone had to trawl through all the footage to put together the set, make the booklets, etc, and that wasn't cheap. The boxing is elaborate.

The importance of storytelling is high, but none of these are sophisticated stories. They're all pretty much on-par with Smith of Wooton Major - a great little read, but not one I'd pay £500 for, even if they did throw in a plastic sword. I'm not convinced anyone is buying these sets for the content, even though the content is enjoyable.

The degree of investment is phenomenal, the sophistication of presentation is exceptional, and the fans are buying in quantity. I'm just not sure what the benefit is, on either side.

Comment Re: Half of the entire world uses it? (Score 2) 30

About 5.56 billion people have Internet access, but subtract 1.12 billion for China and 130.4 million for Russia, because I'm pretty sure neither has access to U.S. social media, an that leaves 4.3 billion. So it's *maybe* possible that 69.8% of the Internet-using world uses Instagram...

But yeah, a lot of them almost certainly are bots.

Comment Re:Nuances (Score 1) 44

Your semantic change makes no difference and isn't even 'proper' headline grammar... It *is* a moon mission, not a space station or earth orbital mission. Its just not a crewed moon *landing* mission. Its been well known for a *long* time the first SLS/Artemis launch to the moon is a round-trip-no-landing, just like with Apollo 8, to check out the systems. The synopsis even states "will not land on the Moon" so I'm not sure why you think a different subject is needed.

Because an average person reading the headline would think that they are going to the moon, not that they are going around the moon. "NASA plans moon-orbit mission for february" would be clearer and not that much longer.

Comment I am shocked, shocked to find gambling here (Score 2) 44

AI is not smarter than a human. It is much, much dumber.

Fools think it is smarter because we teach it to specialize in one specific task that it easy for software to do.

It is like thinking a dog is somehow smarter than a human because it can smell drugs.

Our current AI works (on the tasks it is expensively trained to do well) about as well as an intern (on tasks the intern is simply told to do).

It lies, ignores simple instructions that were not part of the training, and generally fails except on very specific tasks.

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