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Comment Re:Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentage (Score 1) 122

I always provide my managers with confidence interval estimated times

That is a great idea - I did the same thing years ago at a past employer - sadly the manager knew not what to make of it, so I only did it once. It was more accurate than the "real" numbers then ended up going with.

But I think giving a range of timeframes with percentages is probably the best way to go, if you have to give estimates at all...

Comment Re:Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentage (Score 1) 122

That's pretty interesting - I had heard about Fogbugs for years even before StackOverflow but had never used it.

Clocking in and out of a task is annoying, but if you make it easy enough it is not too bad.

Sadly one of the main systems I use at the moment is the execrable TFS, with no change the company will switch from it.

Comment Re:European vacuum cleaners, regulatory consequenc (Score 1) 238

The "one" you refer to is more like "one half".

No, it is actually at least two -- state and federal -- and some people pay three (city). In two counties in Oregon, you are also paying a COUNTY gas tax. When I said "one tax", I meant "one kind of tax".

We haven't increased the tax in proportion to increase in price, it was a fixed amount, and we used to up in every couple years, until 1993.

You know, it is pretty easy to google this stuff and see that you are wrong. Oregon, for one, increased their tax rate in 2011, and according to the font of all knowledge, Wikipedia: "While most fuel taxes were initially levied as a fixed number of cents per gallon, as of 2016, nineteen states and District of Columbia have fuel taxes with rates that vary alongside changes in the price of fuel, the inflation rate, vehicle fuel-economy, or other factors." Portland added yet another hand to the pocket-dipping by creating their own gas tax that took effect on Jan 1 of this year. New Jersey increased their gas tax by 23 cents a gallon (not TO 23cpg, BY 23cpg) in 2016. No increases? Hmmmm....

And so we have crummy roads because few states have the ability to pay for them.

We have crummy roads because costs for road construction have skyrocketed and we have poor project management.

Even if you don't believe in science,

Pure flamebait.

Comment Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentages (Score 2) 122

Even with known and well understood languages/technologies/frameworks, you can and will run into glitches that can take days to complete something that was supposed to take hours - or even longer if the developers are not skilled in debugging and isolating problems!

StackOverflow has helped the industry in this regard, because now a lot of times you can reduce some mysterious problem to a fifteen second StackOverflow search which instantly answers the issue. But not always, and there are always issues when actually programming any design that you can uncover hidden flaws and need to correct them.

What I would love to see is some kind of approach that instead of a time estimate, gave a time along with a percentage of confidence. Two different tasks may seem to take about five hours, with one you are 90% sure it can be done in five hours, with another (like brand new code) it can be more of a 50% five hours. Then you could use this percentage to determine the actual areas of coding likely to cause schedule issues and monitor them more closely. The other nice benefit of this approach is that it factors in the actual developer understanding and abilities more than just a straight hour estimate. Maybe you even put a cap on how high a confidence level a developer is allowed to give until they have met given estimates a number of times already...

Coding is a chaotic system, yes, but it's not like it's fully chaotic, and there are patterns within the chaos I think you could determine over time.

Comment Re:Detectives? (Score 1) 130

I was walking through our customer waiting area earlier this week and saw something very upsetting. There were roughly 10 people in the waiting area, sitting in chairs all facing the flat panel TV on the wall.

On the TV: a guy in a business suit places a bag over another guy's head in the foreground. He then smashes the guy's head in with a bat. Not one hit mind you, but like 10 or 15 hits. The bag gets bloody, the body falls off of a chair to the floor.

It was not what was on the TV that upset me. Well it upset me a bit. That aside, it was the vacuous and accepting looks in the eyes of everyone else who just witnessed the faux blunt object murder. No one cared. No one was surprised or upset. Not even a flicker of emotion passed their eyes.

Comment Re:DST? (Score 1) 130

Regardless he will hang for it.

This is yet another reason why, no matter what, innocent as an angel or guilty as sin, never, ever, neverever talk to the police. Any misstatement is "changing your story." Any hazy memory is construed as obstruction.

Anything you say will be used to prosecute you, whether you are guilty or not. Nothing you say to police will be used to help you. That's not their job.

Get a lawyer. Shut your mouth.


Comment Re:The view fails to account getting &*#@ed (Score 2) 343

And the lack of bankruptcy means the banks would loan unreasonable amounts of money to 18 year olds who had no clue how much pain they were signing up for.

If the bankruptcy was removed, loans would drop, and so would tuition.

Grants are a factor but they were tiny amounts of money compared to student loans.

Comment Re:The view fails to account getting &*#@ed (Score 1) 343

That's supposed to say "millennial are running about a decade behind".

I was a late boomer- almost genx. I was similarly behind leading edge boomers. They were always in the job I wanted to be promoted too and they were going to be there until i was in my mid to late 50's.

Comment Re:I hope he wins his suit (Score 1) 664

Look, you're trying to take the side of a guy who is interested in helping his fellow American brothers and sisters. He is trying to save lives. At worst, he is trying to reduce insurance claims. This seems reasonable to you and me, but not to the government.

You are going up against an organization of people who knowingly allowed the stoplights to be set in such a way that increases property damage, injuries to humans, and also deaths. Why would they do this? Two reasons. You don't matter and because it generates additional revenue.

So, on one side a generous person willing to give of his time and expertise to help his fellow man. On the other a faceless, blameless, murdering gang of thieves. They indiscriminately kill children so they can have additional money in their coffers.

Are you surprised that these hideous bastards would respond with an attack?

By their standards what they did to this guy is considered irrationally polite. They got what they wanted, which is more money, but this time they didn't have to kill anyone to do it. They probably look at it as a win-win.

Burn them all.

Comment Re:Save 30%, retire early (Score 1) 343

Granted those happen- but buying too much house, eating out too much, buying too much car, traveling too much, buying clothing that's too nice, drinking after work, starbucks, and many other activities enjoyed by the young do not help.

I lived on half I made and saved the rest from 1987 onwards. I retired 16 years early.

Comment Re:The view fails to account getting &*#@ed (Score 5, Insightful) 343

As a boomer, when i went to college, it was $180 a semester. Even adjusted for inflation that's a fraction of the cost today.

Tuitions went up enormously when the law was changed to allow loans not forgiven by bankruptcy.

Boomers are running about 10 years behind my age for every major landmark.

That being said- save hard, don't pamper yourself with eating out and starbucks and you can still retire years earlier.

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