> * rise of AI that takes control
I think that's unlikely, but I think the AI crap we're currently following suggests a different path.
The LLM fad is most probably going to eat itself, but take down a lot of things with it.
Let's take a look at it: We had the World Wide Web.
The web was built over a period of a couple of decades maybe (by the mid-2000s it could be considered the primary source of knowledge for everyone in the developed world), with virtually everyone switching to it en-mass. Newspapers went online and closed their paper versions. Magazines closed, to be replaced by websites that were vaguely related. People who once might have written books now wrote blogs or maintained websites with information that was dear to them. Manuals went online. Programmers I think know this more than most, it's easier to search for "Java list to array" than it is to actually go to a physical book and, even with the help of an index, find the method that does that. (Spoiler: Java's version is an ugly hack! I wish Java had kept the original versioning scheme as that'd have made it easier for them to make a Java 2 that didn't rely on the way Java 1 does things, breaking some backward compatibility but implementing things properly. Anyway, I digress.)
So then the first hit came, social media. Not a major hit, and not an obvious problem at first as the first social media sites were glorified blogging platforms. And that was fine, except one of these, Facebook, felt that it was in its best interests to hinder search engines from working with it, which undermined the web.
Then the next hit, the iPhone and Android. Again, not initially a major problem, but over time they encouraged massive amounts of content to be locked behind "apps", with any web interface being a third class option or worse.
Then Facebook came up again, they REALLY didn't like Google. How could they kill Google? By making normal content unsearchable, not just content posted behind Facebook's registration wall. So again, not caring about the web, they came up with a scheme to encourage everyone to post everything as videos. They lied about their own metrics, claiming it showed videos caused a crazy amount of engagement, and the rest of the content providers saw this, and put autoplaying videos on every web page, very often (as was Facebook's intention) without any readable text. Google's search couldn't actually search the videos at that time, so it undermined Google.
Meanwhile... Google was fucking around too. They intentionally made their own search engine less useful, noting that their competitors were apparently just copying them rather than trying to make their own search engines more useful than Google's. So now a Google search is very, very, unlikely to give you relevant answers without a lot of adding quotes to things.
Finally, LLMs. LLMs are the nail in the coffin. They remove any incentive to post anything on the Internet aside from documentation, advertising copy, and rants. There is decreasing incentive at this point to post anything you'd be paid to write or just to make the world a better place. Whether it's journalism, fiction, research, or even a Wikipedia page, fewer and fewer people will ever read what you have to say, but an LLM will, combine it with eleventeen other sources, and produce a summary that's inaccurate and dubious but is "good enough" for people looking for a quick answer.
So what we're left with are LLMs that will tell you things based upon the latest information as of 2025. They'll tell you the latest information as of 2025 today. And they'll tell you the latest information as of 2025 in five years. And in ten years, unless someone's willing to employ an army of researchers whose sole job is to write well researched and accurate articles to be ingested by an LLM, they'll be useless.
But so will the web.
And we don't have a replacement for the web, which is unfortunate because we don't have a replacement for the things we replaced using the web.
And as should be obvious, that means a world without information.
And I can't see how our civilization survives that.