Comment Re:Education is a red herring (Score 1) 289
Where they seem to get nervous is over the fact that the jobs increasingly eliminated by automation are jobs that previously required a lot of education and were high wage, white collar jobs. And they're not being replaced by new jobs of the same type, they're being replaced by low-wage jobs that require hard to automate manual skills -- when they're being replaced at all.
This paragraph is a mess, but yeah. Economic considerations are of broad numbers, not individuals. This sits fine with me, as I don't cry too much about saving 100,000 starving people at the expense of throwing 1,000 well-off people into the gutter. Many people balk at this: they either want to save some of the 100,000 without impacting anyone else (not trade 2:1 or 1,000:1, but do no trade), or they want to tax the shit out of the rich for malicious reasons. All I want is a more efficient system.
The new high wage white collar jobs being produced often require the kind of extensive training and experience extremely difficult for mid-career professionals to obtain, which is compounded by the rate of jobs being automated.
A more efficient system doesn't mean computer programmers become robotics guys; it means 100,000 computer programmers may become 100,000 robotics guys, but the original 100,000 programmers may be street urchins while the 100,000 robotics guys used to be street urchins. In three generations, they'll all be retired, and the new people will again just be who they are, and not people who were ousted and people who were elevated. If that means fewer starving people and a bigger middle class, that's fine.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the notion of a broad middle class is a kind of historical accident caused by the confluence of growth in technology, wide and cheap resource availability and high labor demand. We may be nearing the end of the middle class as we've known it and mostly like it, and returning to a more historical pattern of broad poverty and narrow wealth.
That won't happen. It might cycle.
I've calculated the efficiency of a Citizen's Dividend to be higher than our current welfare system. Right now, it's more effective to broaden Social Security and eliminate other Federal welfare, while leaving state welfare to work itself out. We would eliminate OASDI, Federal unemployment, and so forth; we'd leave State food security (WIC, food stamps), housing assistance, and unemployment in place, although these would spin down over time. A Citizen's Dividend, as I describe, provides nothing for children (families) or immigrants, as doing so creates an incentive to neglect children (hey free money! Make babies!) or rush immigrate for free money; keeping state welfare only retains the existing, acceptable risk of these things, but it does allow state welfare to drop a lot.
Under a Citizen's Dividend, mass unemployment doesn't increase welfare costs. It does shrink the middle class: the very poor can get homes, food, and other basic needs; the middle class start folding into this. This retains our labor pool, providing a spending base in the economy (it replaces existing welfare for the same or lower cost, yet improves the economic spending foundation by converting all homeless and low-income families into additional, reliable, predictable markets) and supporting the rebound while minimizing the fall. The rebound, of course, involves cheaper goods, greater goods availability, and more jobs--meaning more middle class.
I should also note that my Citizen's Dividend plan, in particular, pins the dividend to a percentage of all income. Our society grows in wealth over time: the buying power of all total income dollars in the economy increases. This happens because we learn to use the same resources to produce more--we use fewer resources to produce the same goods and services--and so wealth increases. The total dollars increasing (inflation) is more familiar; understand that the total things purchasable by those total dollars also increases. By pinning the percentage at the point where a Citizen's Dividend is barely viable, I ensure that the very bottom increases in wealth.
By pinning to wealth, as described, I create an ever-rising lower class. Obviously, anyone with a job has more money--that's our middle-class--and the middle class increase in wealth as the economy becomes more wealthy. The gap between the lower and middle class remains roughly the same in this layout: the middle class become more wealthy, able to afford better cars, better food, shinier electronics, and so forth; but the poor also become exactly as much more wealthy, lagging behind the middle class, but only precisely as far as ever. The poor, thus, also find it easier to survive, and find life more comfortable; every step society makes carries the rich forward without additional burden, provides the middle class greater opportunities without additional burden, and pulls the poor along just as ever.
A Citizen's Dividend is viable now because our social safety net--our welfare system--constantly gets heavier. In 20 or 50 years, our existing welfare system will be so big as to crush our economy: the weight of carrying the poor will be so great that we cannot move, nay stand, with them on our backs. I only propose to take a different tactic which better supports the poor, yet stops them from becoming any greater of a burden on society, ever.
By the very existence of a basic standard of living for all individuals, you must recognize any individual with additional income would be much better off. An individual won't be incentived to work with minimal pay--let's say an individual gets $600/mo, and you offer $1/hr, such that 40hr weeks produce $160/mo extra--because the additional money will not improve their quality-of-life when also accounting for the misery of employment. The moment they can stably afford savings, better food, a larger apartment, and some entertainment luxuries, they're willing to work; currently, that could be as little as $5/hr for what would be minimum wage workers, while skilled workers would command more salary as more scarce resources. This necessarily places them into a fairly wealthy middle class.
It won't disappear. A new economic dynamic will appear.