No More Next Big Thing? 564
CthuluOverlord writes "CNET News.com is reporting that Nicholas Donofrio, Big Blue's executive vice president of innovation and technology, made a declaration on Tuesday in an interview with ZDNet Asia. 'The fact is that innovation was a little different in the 20th century. It's not easy (now) to come up with greater and different things. If you're looking for the next big thing, stop looking. There's no such thing as the next big thing.'" Donofrio goes on to explain that he sees innovation as being services or social changes nowadays, rather than simply a better moustrap. What's the verdict? Is tech innovation dead?
Re:Everything that can be invented... (Score:3, Interesting)
Voicing my opinion (Score:3, Interesting)
More generally biomimetics and innovation from molecular biology will eclipse the innovation that has followed upon the IT revolution.
Very Stupid and Shortsighted (Score:3, Interesting)
A funny quote (Score:5, Interesting)
-- Benjamin Jowett (1817-93), British theologian.
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:5, Interesting)
credulity and seems to presage the arrival of that period
when human improvement must end.
Henry Elsworth
US Patent Office, 1844
The experts say... (Score:2, Interesting)
the opposite (Score:5, Interesting)
(please excuse the mixed buzzwords)
Re:Everything that can be invented... (Score:1, Interesting)
But what happens when it turns out to be true someday?
There is no mathematical proof that everything can be invented hasn't been.
For hundreds of years, people kept saying flying machines were right around the corner. People who claimed they could build one were ridiculed. Until finally someone did.
My point is simple
Historical trend is hardly proof or evidence. People make this mistake all the time. Just because the Sun has shined for the past millenia doesnt mean the Sun won't nova someday.
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:3, Interesting)
Everything that can be invented has been invented.
Charles H. Duell
U.S. Commissioner for Patents
1899
I'd agree with his result (Score:5, Interesting)
And I'll even go so far as to say the reason why there will be no next big thing - it's our broken-ass patent system.
Someone, somewhere out there has part of your brilliant idea buried in a vaguely worded submarine patent. Soon as you hit the big time - wham. Some greedy patent grubbing jerk will sue you for daring to make use of "his idea" that he's been sitting on not using for the last half a dozen years or so.
Only big business has enough lawyers these days to explore uncharted waters. Which means that business will be in charge of innovation. Which means that no product/idea/whatever will get the green light without a financial analysis conducted by a committee of people who will 99.9% of the time tend to be conservative, or maybe even just plain clueless as to the new idea's implications.
The days of the solo guy in the garage coming up with the thing that changes the world are over.
Sure there are big things (Score:3, Interesting)
The Ipod and the mp3 player market, much more advanced 3d video cards, composite 3d accelerated desktops, new video players and microized computers that are pda in size (blackberry, Ipod video, Orgami, etc), a shift from dynamic cgi websites to interactive ones wiht complex javascript and ajax, and the $100 computer that is quite feature filled.
Whats in the futre? Better wifi and other internet technologies that are wireless, physics accelerators in 3d cards, 3d interfaces, and seemingless networked clusters or SSI(single system image) where you can hook up several computers that act as one whole computer image rather than the traditional cluster.
Also phones are going to take off as well with bluetooth and other technologies. The europeans already have it because they are not under monopolies who like to sell trusted drm midi ringtones for $3.
ORLY (Score:5, Interesting)
A short list:
- Hovering vehicles
- Anti gravity (which is probably related to the above)
- hand held energy weapons
- teleportation
- economical space travel (think "to mars", or, at the least, consumer viability for going to the moon)
- curing cancer
- controlling computers with our brains
- mechanical prostetics that respond either to brain waves or nerves (we're right on the edge of this one- I believe someone had a really basic, bulky unit working, it just has to become available for the common man)
- growing of artificial organs for transplants (goodbye organ donors!)
- interactive holographic interfaces
- solar energy that's +60% effecient
Okay, maybe that list isn't so short. Sure, many of those fields are being worked on, but nothing concrete and ready for mass use has been created (to my knowledge.) All of those items will help to advance the human race in terms of how we live and effect our environment, as well as populating into space.
Also, I'm still waiting for my damned hoverboard. Back to the Future Part II is full of lies, I tell you, lies! (I realize that the events in BttF2 don't occur to 2015, but we should be seeing regular hover technology by now if we are to meet the deadline of mass production for hoverboards that can be used by everyday kids.)
I wonder how IBM workers feel (Score:5, Interesting)
Big Things (Score:3, Interesting)
It's a common phenomenon in history where there is a cultural lull and pundits are claiming that everything that can be done has been done.
Just look at biotech. WTF, this executive is a tunnel vision idiot. There are amazing things on the horizon.
Re:Exactly. (Score:3, Interesting)
wetware implants ala Jonny mnemonic and/or borg type enhancements. Don't think so? Just look to the military for augmented soilders, or the commercial arbitrage market, where total and instant recall of all possible data about the deal would be an impressive advantage. People who are not geeks would submit to the knife if it could give them the possibility of riches.
-nB
Innovators, rejoice! (Score:3, Interesting)
The basic research space is [mostly] all yours now. Enjoy!
Sad for IBM, though.
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:2, Interesting)
If so, I find that pretty silly.
If anyone has ever seen the next big thing, Bill Gates certainly would be a candidate.
btw, there is no source for the quote you gave. (for the billionth time on slashdot)
No source of ideas (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Innovation stifled (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Is that so? (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:The Next Big Thing Is... Already Here... (Score:4, Interesting)
The general public hasn't really seen it yet, and it's still out of the price range for home use. Plus, the selection of materials is somewhat limited, but it's improving. There's no doubt in my mind that at some critical point of price and functionality, the market is going to explode. How long before a single machine is capable of building the physical housing of a device, plus conductive circuits, passive components, semiconductors, and moving parts? Imagine the innovation that will inspire, when you can electronically design and distribute everything from doorknobs to handguns, to be fabricated by people everywhere at minimal cost.
Re:The Next Big Thing Is... Already Here... (Score:3, Interesting)
Don't get me wrong. The current path is a good one. So far, it has been more efficiant to keep throwing new tech at the problem, but once/if that becomes no longer possible, we have another generation of optimizing to gain performance. This is why I don't complain about code bloat. It makes no sense to pay $100,000 to a coder to optimize a routine when you can throw $200 worth of hardware at the problem. BUT, if you already have the most powerful hardware available, the $100,000 optimization becomes a bargain.
The problem isn't technology (Score:3, Interesting)
Some time ago, I read an article [scientificamerican.com] by Tim Berners-Lee which starts off with a description of a technology (semantic web) aided lifestyle where your car will automatically book itself for an oil change with your mechanic, and that type of thing. The thing is, we have all the knowledge and technology to make that kind of stuff happen *today*, yet I still don't think we will see it will happen any time soon.
The problem is that to take things to the next level like that, we need *extensive* ongoing cooperation between hundreds and thousands of people, organizations, and companies - where such cooperation might not have any short term payoff, or the long term payoff might not be in the best financial interest of those involved (ie, Microsoft realizing a universal platform neutral programming language like Java would mean people don't need Windows). I mean, hell, we can't even get broad agreement on a single XML Word Processing format.
Our problems now are more systemic than technologic. We aren't leveraging what we have.
Re:ORLY (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:The Next Big Thing Is... Already Here... (Score:2, Interesting)
no one noticed until the web browser and general access became available in 1995
The widespread use of the Internet required 3 things that all had to be present at once: a browser with a graphic user interface, a computer that was powerful enough to manage a GUI and a modem that were fast enough to download enough data to supply the GUI. If any one of those were missing, the Web was not practical.
The Next Big Thing is probably waiting for some new confluence of independent technologies. In fact, the Web may be such a component itself.
Re:Exactly. (Score:3, Interesting)
Input from inert materials that don't really interface- the RFID in the hand trick, with three sensors that inform the computer of hand position and interpret movement. A similar think to this is the middle-mouse-button macro stuff that Mentor Graphics was doing in their CAD programs back in the early 1990s.
Direct interface to nerve endings through Bluetooth- this was pioneered by England's famous cyborg-scientist. This is similar to the first method, but intercepts the signal before actual movement, so can detect much smaller nerve impulses, and does not require three dimensions of external sensors for the computer to interface. Only good for input.
Input and still not quite possible output, the EKG Keyboard- I've been hearing about this one since the early 1990s as well- basically you take a EKG skullcap and hook it up to a digitizing sound card input and try to interpret the result. I always thought it was a bit flaky- but a story I missed actually reading recently here or on technocrat, I forget which, claimed success with this method.
Output- implanted piston microsubwoofers, and eyeglass lasers, are now old tech- I first heard about them on Scientific American Frontiers in 1986, and since then they've become smaller, lighter, and easier to recharge using inductive power. But the only form of this tech that has achieved common usage is the permanent implant adaptive pacemaker- a pacemaker that is tied to a simple pedometer that regulates heartbeat to the activity level of the wearer.
Bringing these technologies all together would be a killer app, but the next big thing? I don't think it will ever see widespread usage.
A list of near-term big things: (Score:5, Interesting)
2. Cheap connectivity makes government propaganda impractical in every country
3. Nearly all software becomes free, as the impracticality of selling infinitely copyable material becomes evident.
4. Pop culture dies for the same reason, and is replaced by amateur arts and culture
5. AIDS vaccine is found, triggering second sexual revolution
6. Tech advances too fast for traditional college to keep up. Other methods of training become more prominent.
7. Privacy dies. Morality becomes more utilitarian as "public face" becomes impossible
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:3, Interesting)
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:5, Interesting)
Funny and poigniant at the same time. There are theories that human imagination and ability to achieve is limited, as schooling required to reach a level of expertise in a field continues to increase... however, we're far from the end, and with space exploration being almost pre-natal, our ability to achieve is highly unrealized. It's not to say there isn't an end, but it's not in sight.
Further, human ingenuity will probably create devices (computers) that can help us overcome any limitations we might face on a human level.
Saying there will never be a big breakthrough is base, and any credibility this man has should be immediately and irrevocably removed. I wonder if at the end of the industrial revolution, anyone ever imagined the information revolution...
Re:I wonder how IBM workers feel (Score:2, Interesting)
Depends on your POV (Score:2, Interesting)
If you watch specific areas of technology and view only earth shaking brand spanking new solutions to old problems as "The next big thing..." then I suppose you could view the incremental improvements as being ignorable.
However, technological inovation is not dropping off. Watch
I realize some of the above may not sound tech related. Really thats my point. If your point of view says that the only things to watch are higher DRAM densities then you may not see DDR2 as a next big thing. However if you watch advances in science, such as the ability to slow light down using specific materials, you will realize that there will likely, eventually be a next big thing for memory (although it may feel a bit like waiting for Duke Nukem Forever to come out).
My POV is that there is absolutely not chance that important innovations will stop, unless research using scientific reasoning stops.
Re: Yes Next Thing (Score:3, Interesting)
But there is really no insight in reiterating the conventional wisdom. Why do we think there will be a next big thing? More importantly, what will it be and when will it arrive?
In my opinion, progress is almost inevitable in the long run (barring extinction). But that isn't really the point if you're worrying about pursuing research or choosing a career.
Re:ORLY (Score:4, Interesting)
Actually, I'd rather have a Mr Fusion
Re:ORLY (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:There is truth in the original quote... (Score:4, Interesting)
All of these products came to pass without much litigation holding them back. Trust me, there will be more big things.
Anyone who doesn't think so has no imagination.
RonB
Not dead, we're on strike (Score:4, Interesting)
What I invent now I do for fun and for just myself and my friends.
Re:The Next Big Thing Is... Already Here... (Score:3, Interesting)
I worked for IBM when this trend started... (Score:5, Interesting)
One really stupid thing that happened before I left was that they decided that each of the major labs would have to come up with at least one product every 6 months, instead of dedicating themselves to research. This was one of Lou Gerstner's last gasps, but it redirected the company focus from doing things that no one else could do, to doing things that made short term profit.
Then others in the company (Sam Pamisano, Bill Etherington, et. al.) decided that individual contributors compensation would be based on the overall profit more than division or personal performance, and that managers and above would still have it based on division, personal performance, then overall profit, in that order.
Either they believed the engineers working for them had never had any higher math in the area of game theory, or they were simply ignorant that the emergent property of that type of staging is to keep your boss pleased by keeping the division up at the expense of the rest of the company, so the boss is happy and cuts you in on the cake.
Finally, it was a matter of pride to IBM Global Services that they had so much consulting effort that had been sold that they had a 2 year backlog - WTF? Who could *possibly* be proud of promising something you're unable to deliver in the timeframe you promised it, or having an organization that can't meet the demands of its market?
It's really unfortunate when a large company that people have depended upon for their livelihoods starts a tumble into short term thinking, and from there, into mediocrity.
-- Terry