Comment Re: Yes, AI, of course. (Score 1) 12
It's certainly more plausible than some cuts we've seen; but it's hard not to still see it as the usual "described as fat-trimming; inevitably ends up reaching bone" exercise just because of how software usually ships. Not everything ships in full abject brokenness; but at least for commercial-grade software (specialty formally verified stuff and projects that have been laser focused on solving a specific problem that bothered an academic computer scientist in 1980 since 1980 can be a different story) you don't generally see software that makes you think "Nope, it's finished, any additional resources allocated would be wasted or actively spoil the product. There are no edge cases that could have used a little more love, nothing interesting but currently too rough or subject-to-change to use".
Even if you go with a fairly optimistic view of productivity effects, 10%-ish gain and no serious side effects, just axing 10% of the employees so you can status-quo the product with lower payroll costs absolutely seems like a chop-shopping move when the status quo for software is so mediocre. As PE cuts go they don't seem to be speedrunning the hollowing-out and immediately going to a skeleton crew of junior vibe coders and a 'support' chatbot; but precious little software ships in a state where "efficiency is up 10%" means that you've already maxed out possible product quality and just need to start cutting people since you no longer have anything for them to do. If the optimistic projections pan out they might be able to approximately maintain their existing level of polish with fewer people; but that level was always a compromise.
Even if you go with a fairly optimistic view of productivity effects, 10%-ish gain and no serious side effects, just axing 10% of the employees so you can status-quo the product with lower payroll costs absolutely seems like a chop-shopping move when the status quo for software is so mediocre. As PE cuts go they don't seem to be speedrunning the hollowing-out and immediately going to a skeleton crew of junior vibe coders and a 'support' chatbot; but precious little software ships in a state where "efficiency is up 10%" means that you've already maxed out possible product quality and just need to start cutting people since you no longer have anything for them to do. If the optimistic projections pan out they might be able to approximately maintain their existing level of polish with fewer people; but that level was always a compromise.