One reason vibe-coding is catching on with smaller firms is that, well, AI is "free" to them right now. I can go download Visual Studio Code, and get CoPilot for free...or maybe I ditch that and put Claude on it. Doesn't matter. I could still use it to generate code and hey, I'm not paying a thing.
They're getting "inexperienced junior developers" for free.
But 2 problems with that. The obvious one is noted above several times: how do you get senior, experienced developers when you haven't trained any junior developers (and don't think you're REALLY training the AI on your business model and real use cases - at any moment the engine host can just toss out a bunch of institutionalized memory for cost reasons and you're fake junior developers are as dumb as when you first started.
At some point, unless they just want the job and that's that, a code *editor* is going to get sick of editing. Maybe they won't, I don't know for sure...but I sure as hell know *I* would get sick of editing junk code day after day after day. There's no joy in it. There's no satisfaction. It is just the job, nothing more.
Now the second problem: when will they stop making it free?
This crap is expensive (as anybody following news headlines goes). And small firms and individual developers aren't paying for it. The big companies are by taking out loans against their stock values (case in point, Oracle, which took a huge 1/3rd of a drop in value for doing so).
So at some point, like with every free service that gets enshitified so that it can be somehow paid for, AI code generation will be no different. They're going to have to do SOMETHING to turn this free service into something that makes money. Licenses for improvements, a limit on number of prompts per day, advertisements showing up in the comments that the code generator generates, maybe even they'll start creating code that requires you to have a commercial library license and they won't generate 'clean' (zero derivative) code unless you pay separately, and then throw in all the vendor lock-in that goes with that.
All those things that already happen for "free" AI services online like photo cleanups. They'll have to start doing it here to recoup the huge investments.
We'll see how that changes the way this stuff is seen.