The MAGAs will end up taking it in the shorts and then (and ONLY then) be utterly bewildered that the leopards are eating their faces. Like when they lose their Social Security, Medicare, SSI, etc etc.
The problem is that their reality does not allow them to assign blame to their own. If gas went to $20 per gallon in 2026 it would be Biden's fault. If Russia invaded in 2027 it would be Biden's fault. If Trump was caught in bed with a hooker in 2026 it would be Obama's fault. If Trump died of a heart attack it would be Hillary Clinton's fault.
The party formerly of "personal responsibility" is all about deflecting responsibility onto others. A while ago I saw a perfect summary of it - "Trump cannot fail, he can only be failed".
The Republican minority in the lame-duck session cannot stop any judicial confirmations.
There you are erroneously assuming that the GOP would allow the democrats to play by the rules that they use for themselves. That isn't how it works any more. The permanent new rules are now that the MAGA party has power over the Senate under all circumstances, without concern for the composition of its members. They can make, break, and discard rules any time they wish. If elections are held in 2026 and the GOP lost every senate seat it had up for election, they would still hold all the power in that chamber. What McConnell did to rewrite senate rules will look like nothing compared to what the MAGA party will roll out in 2025.
Not sure of the odds, but I agree with you about splitting three or more ways. Whichever part retains an intact California would be a substantial player on the world stage. Natural to see a west coast and a New England country, but will the old Confederacy want to stay with the MidWest or go its own way?
The biggest challenge in dividing the US into new countries lies in the fact that political divisions do not follow geographic lines well this time. The bluest states have red counties, the reddest states have blue counties (except perhaps Florida, but Bugs Bunny already laid out a solid plan for dealing with Florida).
The Democrats have a post-election opportunity to ram her replacement through the same way McConnell rammed through his final SCOTUS pick.
That would be true if the democrats and republicans played by the same rules, or allowed each other to do so. The GOP would burn down Washington DC before they would allow the democrats to get such an appointment through, even if the democrats had enough votes to do so. Hell if Joe Biden wanted to appoint Sean Hannity to fill that theoretical vacancy, the GOP would refuse to hear it just to deny him that "win" and would make sure no hearing ever occurred.
I think there are plenty of red-state morons who would be glad to be rid of the east and west coasts--and then be sadly (but deservedly) surprised by how much they got charged for all the stuff they still want to buy.
I would put the odds at least at even for this administration being the last one of a 50 states United States. Now whether or not the GOP would allow for secession is another matter; we know that Trump is willing to send the US Military after his own American opponents. Likely we'd need to split into at least three different new countries if not more. There would likely need to be an amnesty period as well to allow people who find themselves on the wrong side of the border at the start to pack up and relocate to a different new country. Naturally a lot of people who would want to accelerate this would have less than no idea of how complicated such a relocation would actually be for actual people.
If you have a procedure with 10 parameters, you probably missed some.