It doesn't surprise anyone, you can already see this forum is full of the usual suspects spouting their long-established stances.

"Oh no they're going to do it now" Really? That's the best you've got?

So you're going to pretend you don't know about Soviet weapons deployed in space basically as long as either of us has been alive?

Or are we pretending there's no Chinese space weapons program?

How naive are you, or just disingenuous?

There's a weird confluence here of the capability of basically everyone having access to more information than ever, and the most constant nonsense gaslighting at the same time.

One can - instantly, really - ask about something incredibly obscure like Fermat's last theorem and depending on how much one is willing to accept someone else's summary, their own comprehension, and appetite for falling down a rabbit hole of REALLY detailed explanation, context, history, personalities, and everything involved, one can - likewise instantly - get not only the basic information but pretty nearly any gradation of explanation that wanted. And I can even get that wherever I happen to be - a library, a classroom, but also a bus or sitting on the shitter.

Objectively, that's a COOL THING.
Really, it is an amazing accomplishment for humanity generally.

Simultaneously, though we have more or less constant gaslighting over even the most stupid/obvious of facts. In the US it's often political, whether from the president & his government, or the opposition. Every single thing now has political weight in which the moment it's presented, the side-weighting are applied and if it's my side I'm for it, if it's the other side I'm against it, and by god there will never be reconciliation on even the most basic of facts.

I'd ask how we got here, but I expect all I'd see are politically-weighted answers anyway.

My point is just to highlight the constant irony of the availability of infinite information coinciding with the apparently-collective abandonment of any fixed concept of reality.

And Hitler gained influence by waging wars of conquest against Europe. This just seems to be playing with words at this point.

They never agreed to stop refinement. Normally nuclear talks with countries goes like hand over your centrifuges and we'll make it worth your while. Country agrees and that's the end of it... Iran instead elected to waste well north of a trillion dollars in nuclear production and sanctions for some reason...

Money is a vehicle for funding more terrorism, missile production and nuclear processing. The hundreds of billions Trump was talking about took the form of foreign investments something that has been tried in the past and mostly fails due to the mafia state like nature of the regime.

If Iran wanted money all it has to do is give up terrorism and nukes and it will get all of the money it could ever dream of. What the regime really wants is to continue to wage revolution against the rest of the world. This isn't some hidden fact. They say it openly and demonstrate it continuously with their actions. It is embedded in the very name of the organization running Iran the "Islamic revolutionary guard core"... The entire point of its existence is guarding the revolution. The revolution against the rest of the world it has been waging for the last half century.

Here let me google for you

https://www.sciencedirect.com/...

I hope it is one of those fancy engineered septic systems, with pumps, timers, floats, dose controls etc. In which case yeah ... I often wonder if the engineers and the health departments understand them either. AI is probably great diagnostic tool there.

On the other hand the conventional ones really are just a hole in the ground for the most part; if you need AI for that we are in real trouble.

I think it is more simple then that. It is about protecting the status quo.

Nobody is really happy with US education outcomes. It is painfully obvious that places with the NEA/AFT enjoy the most influence, is highly aligned with the poorest performance.

You have similar orthodoxies in the higher-ed pedagogical programs where application of current state-of-the-art classroom and instruction theory continue result in only a long year over year decline in student performance..

So how do these entrenched groups remain so and prevent a revolt from parents and students, well one way to wave some flashy new tech or radical re-conceptualization of what being educated will mean in front of them like (you don't need to do math, you need to be able to code); then plead you just need to give us another decade and you'll see how this current crop of students turns out to be the most polished ever!

When it does not happen - repeat.

What exactly *are* you thinking here? That Microsoft expected and wanted Twitter trolls to turn Tay into a Nazi? That Google wanted a black George Washington? That people just expected LLMs to realize they're being tested on alignment and give different answers when they think they're being quizzed and by who? Do you actually believe what you're writing here?

I was involved in early RLHF (was writing a plugin for AUTOMATIC to let users rate responses to create an aggregate dataset to use for open-source post training). Worked for months on it. Never once occurred to me that it might make models obsequeous. I knew other people who were involved on RLHF. Not a single one ever suggested that it might. It was not obvious in foresight. When you start with "Models behave like X", you expect, in the future, them to behave like "Models behave like X, but just smarter", unless you deliberately try to change the behavior.

You realize that open source and the research community exists as well, correct?

I'll repeat: nobody was expecting this.

There is no grand overarching plan led by a shadowy cabal who has everything plotted out decades in advance with a high level of knowledge as to how everything will play out. Everyone is stumbling through the dark here. Visibility is only vaguely one step ahead.

When Word2Vec was written, the goal was text compression. The crazy properties of latent spaces were an entirely unexpected property.

When Transformers came out, it was intended to be translation software. That's it. But there were little hints at the end of the paper where they tried it on other tasks that suggested, hey, maybe this could be used for a lot more than just translation.

When GPT-2 came out, it was mostly an academic exercise, not really "useful" in most regards. But people, playing with it, started realizing that it could "almost" - not very reliably, low quality, etc - do a lot of different tasks. And it actually kinda could do some useful tasks, like summarization.

When ChatGPT came out, there were some thoughts about using it for simple tasks, but the fact that it could actually write, say, trivial bash scripts or subroutines with reasonable reliability led to a reaction of, whoa, maybe if we improve this, we can really open up a role for programming.

When the first agentic harnesses came out, thoughts of "vibe coding" were pretty far away (the term was only even coined in February 2025!). You'd ask for changes, and then review the diff; they'd do a good job with small projects but struggle more and more as codebase size grew and really needed to be babysit (honestly, it was kind of a hair-pulling experience, even though it did save a lot of time with certain things). But it was visible with each new release that the amount of babysitting you had to do got less and less, and suddenly we could see a path to where anyone can just type in something and a program comes out.

All we can do is forsee one step ahead, through the haze. We've never done anything like this before. There are no great oracles out there who can see the future here. Sorry. Everyone is half blind.

Yes, that's exactly the point: there ISN'T anything.

You're claiming that there IS. So cite the thing that IS.

Of course it does.

Iranian regime only cares about terror. Its raison d'etre is externalizing the revolution. Iran continuously wastes its oil wealth on armed groups that wreak havoc throughout the region. Armed groups currently in the process of being rolled up now that the regime is unable to supply them.

What ambitions? What do the Iranians think they are getting out of this? Hormuz is a pointless card you play once and it quickly becomes ineffective as the route is bypassed. All Iran managed to gain by playing this was to have an economic hydrogen bomb explode in their face as they are now unable to export oil. Sort of makes banking failures that sparked protests and subsequent massacres of Jan 8th and 9th seem like a stick of TNT in comparison.

The JCPOA capped enrichment to 3.67% until 2030 and imposed stockpile and centrifuge limits. They kept enriching the entire time while respecting agreed upon limits.

They were enriching the whole time. What changed was the ramp to blow thru agreed upon limits.

My personal belief after hearing a public statement made by someone on the Iranian side of the JCPOA they were always going for a nuke and JCPOA was seen as a vehicle to that end. It provided the Iranians with sanctions relief giving them money, time and space to pursue all of the necessary industrial process and delivery system productions to enable the regime to become a nuclear weapon state when ready to do so.

The nuclear sanctions and capital expenditures on related infrastructure cost them north of a trillion dollars... kind of hard to swallow the prospect of spending so much money and not actually meaning it in the first place. The regime is ideologically close to Nazis. They openly seek world domination, kill the Jews and subjugation of anyone who isn't them. Probably in everyone's best interests to keep the regime from getting nukes regardless of who the US president is.

Seeing regional states like Lebanon and Iraq assert themselves against Iranian terror groups and the possibility of freedom for Iranians themselves.

AI already helps us to surveil masses of humans, automate judgement of humans, trick and spam humans, automate crimes against humans and ultimately render humans obsolete. A more powerful AI would only serve to assist in doing all of these things more effectively.

I have no reason to doubt authoritarian dictatorships and corporations the world over will perfect the art of making sure super-intelligent AI wants to help in all the right ways.

Years ago around ChatGPT 4 release there was this notion being peddled the AI firms would have to be extra careful to vigilantly guard against escape of super intelligent AI. What was funny about this at the same time we all had a front row seat to OpenAI corrupting itself from within not due to the influence of some advanced superintelligence but merely the simple greed of a self absorbed sociopath.

What Amodei and others are worried about is the pending IPO.

Let's be more specific about how and why this could happen? What scenarios could lead to the total destruction of mankind?